There's a David Wilson apartments development near me in Fordhouses, Wolverhampton. For the last 6 weeks or so it appears that work has ceased.

The blockwork is complete and the roof is on but the next items on the programme i.e. external cladding, windows etc. are not following on.

Given that the cheapest of the apartments is around 6/7 times local earnings and the area is a dump this would always be a site vulnerable to a slowdown.

A couple of months ago one or two posters mentioned sites on stop. Is there anything like this happening near you?

I work in the construction industry and have never observed anything like this before.

The row of houses being built a few paces from Lee (SE London) BR mainline train platform haven't progressed since late last year.

They are still building in the Halifax area. There's absolutely no sign of any stoppages here.

In the interests of balance, I can also add that a small new development is underway just around the corner from me. Looks like a terraced row of about 6, 3 bed houses.

Started In Dec and nearly up to the roof level as we speak.

Also at the end of my road, planning permission has been granted to knock down 2 detatched properties, and build a large house, along with a few 2 bed flats, in their place.

Yes. Set of retirement flats near me. Site has been half-built for almost 6 months now.





You can't have been around in the last crash then. There was a famous example in Portsmouth where the developer had got as far as putting the front steps up for the blocks of flats before the market crashed, so there was an empty building site with about 7 palatial sets of steps leading up to......absoutely nothing!

Same in Nottingham. But I have seen it reported that most of the current crop were sold off-plan last Spring (you remember - House Price Boomtime ). The developers are probably rushing to get the rest of their cash. One huge development near the station has 275 "luxury apartments". All were sold before building began. It looks like it will be complete this summer.

Myself, I would have thought that earliest possible completion would have made the most sense.

If we assume for the sake of the argument that house builders will have the pick of what few buyers there are (being at the top of the food chain of sellers) then the sooner they can get their property to market the better.

I did wonder if it was something to do with where the financial year ends though.

Developers don't necessarily occupy the top of the food chain when the crash starts.

In fact, they tend to lead it down.

Above all, they need *cashflow* and can often afford to sell at '50% off' if absolutely necessary, and STILL cover their building costs (unless they are real plonkers, of course). Expect to see a lot of amazing 'price reductions' on new devs in a few months time / end summer? (when the cashflow crisis really starts to bite them!)

Remember it well from last time. And guess what?

They f*ck it for all the other sellers too. Imagine - "Oh no, I'm not paying 200k for this victorian conversion. I can get a new build same size on the dev at the end of the street for 110k. You must think I'm mad".

THAT'S when the BTL amateurs bite the dust, and good riddance to the sodding parasites is what I say.

Got two sites near me, both have not been doing anything for 4 months rumour has it one of the builders has gone bust, can't remember if I started that rumour

There's an old college building that's been reduced to rubble near me that, as far as I remember, was going to be used to build several new houses and some low-cost housing (aka flats). I've just seen a notice posted on the lamp posts outside that they now want to turn it into a car park (temporarily).

ok lets look at it from the developers perspective

in the last housing slump- late 80's early 90's -the developers worked on a premise of pile em high, sell em cheap. they were busy fools.

since then they have wised up.
part of the HPI was caused by developers restricting supply and foicing up prices. they would only build what they sold and held their prices. hard to prove , but it loked like a cartel with all the majors doing the same thing. they learnt from the politicians and spun the line that the shortage of supply was all down to beastly planners. obviously some truth, but by no means the whole story.

in recent years the davelopers have been consolidating so that there are a limited number of huge developers,( wimpey, barratt, persimmon, redrow ) who control the spec housing market.

the scarcity of land for self build has driven people to buy very expensive boxes if they want new build.

so what will the reaction be to a downturn?

slow down the rate of build, hold on to the land bank and try and hold prices up.

sub contractors, suppliers will feel th pinch but the developers will not sacrifice margin. they will rpobaly shed some head office staff but by nad large they run with relatvely low central overheads

to blow their game the govt and planners need to free up land for small developers& self builders who would build more imaginative quyality homes at good costs

ive seen quite a number of adbandoned or not started projects. one minute it was full steam ahead, the next they are unstaffed and all the plant has gone. a few are just flattened with drains etc, then - nothing.

i had said this in earlier posts. i think its a clear sign. if i was a developer id hold my horses for a few months. see which way the wind blows.

I thought I detected this a couple of months ago when one block of flats was having the roof on and its mate next door was left at ground floor. Since then they have carried on and brought a 3rd block on as well.

They are still digging holes in the ground and filling them up with concrete as fast as they can.

But, and they don't seem to have noticed, the blocks finished in the last few months are standing empty. And, some finished a year ago are still not sold.

It's as if each developer thinks 'Ah, mine are nicer than those or nearer the station or whatever - so mine will sell'.

In a few months time I would say there will be something like 100 flats within half a mile of each other all for sale at the same time. The first 24 of these were finished 4 months ago and the only cars outside are the estate agents.

Also they are still knocking down old houses and bungalows and sticking in as many new 4 bed detached as they can. These are definitely not selling locally.

Recent development of an old character house into 9 town houses - looking in Estate Agents window the other day - Reduced by 40k (big flash on advert - seems daft to me - surely better just to reduce the price quietly and not advertise the fact they are overpriced). That said they are still prices like 395k and 445k for what are little bigger than a bog-standard, modern 2 or 3 bed terrace house - and they have a communal garden. I seriously think they are overpriced by at least 150k - even in today's nutty market.

They even have a Sold sign outside the development. I think it is a lie. I'd love to prove it and report them to Trading Standards. A big agent round here got done a while ago for putting Sold signs up outside their Director's houses. Same principle applies I think.


Another mob recently developed a big detached house on a corner plot. Its been on the market for best part of a year I would say at 575k.
They are in the process of building 3 more on the opposite corner. Why? They haven't sold the first one yet.
Baffles me. Its like they WANT to go broke.

Interesting to note that in portsmouth, next to the football ground, there are approved plans for several tower blocks for some 530 luxury apartments to start work in the near future (the pompey village). Dependng on how bad the crash will be, they better get them flats up quick otherwise they could just get as far as building the lift shafts... to nowhere. How history repeats itself.

planning proposal

Lots of development near me. Knock down large old house and squash in as many new builds as you can. The apartments are selling - one block of 9 apartments and 4 town houses - 3 apartments left, all four townhouses left, not yet finished. Big push to get visitors round this coming weekend.

One developer is building town houses and detached houses (3 storey, 1 roll of turf for a garden). Houses were around 700K + off plan. Now 620K ish. Sold one in a development of 4, none in a development of 3. He has planning for another 3 on a seperate site. These are all just about complete.

I would think they are fairly priced at around 500K, but wouldnt actually buy them myself - who wants a five bed three storey house without a real garden in a country town? Funnily, the previous lot that sold, over 2 years ago, all went to Londoners moving West. Locals all bought older properties with real gardens for the same money. I guess the target audience is Londoners who havn't realised you can get a garden adjacent to your house for around half a mill.

I think this weekend is the crunch. Easter is usually busy for viewings. I would expect agents to receive lots of offers from tuesday. If they dont, or the offers are low, then crash. If however, they get offers near asking, then no crash, but stagnation.

SC

I was told yesterday by an electrician friend about David Wilson homes not building anymore homes on a large estate (probably on about phase 4) just outside Newark in Nottinghamshire, they have simply pulled out he said, many losing their jobs apparantly.

New builds are simply not selling, despite reductions and plenty of advertising.

Very interesting FUR. Practically all 'on site' work is done by sub-contractors so anyone 'let go' by David Wilson will get fixed up pretty quick as construction is still very busy.

Our estimator (I work in construction) volunteered the fact today that his "tender table" where he stacks up the tender documents from contractors for forthcoming work was looking a bit bare!

Ooh er.....

Just accross from work, loads of not bad dewllings just nearing completion.
2 Bed Aprtments
2,3,4 bed houses.
These are interesting designs (not really but better than most aroudn here) the layout is different, but they on top of each other, 3 floor 4 bed looking down into all the neighbours gardens etc.....

Anyway: Walk past most days, One of the road side houses (3 Bed) did have a sold sign in it for about 5 months, the others had 5% deposit paid, subsidised mortage repayments for 2 years, stamp duty paid!!!!!!! These were all in build.

They are now finished, The one that was sold is now empty as are the others on the road front. I've not walked around the estate yet as the road has only just opened. Considering I walk past at lunch time, I've not seen anyone looking or walking around with detail papers.
Don't look like their shifting does it?

This place is full of To Lets and new builds..........


Theres a housing short don't you know!
A qoute I've seen many times on here
My ****, for the last 4 years theres been a shortage of affordable housing in the south east.
Plenty of houses, just not for FTB's!

The existing home owning stock (BTL's mainly) have feed themselfs, their property went up in value again because they brought 2 small porperties in their area, low and behold all the starter homes are obtaining asking price or more. All other up chain properties slide up as well, more money to spend in the system....
This perceived wealth, no new money means a market could consume iteslf.

The snake has started to eat its own tail without realising it, it may stop when it sees its own neck as the next bite?!
Thing is what is going to open the snakes eyes to this view?

IR's?
Credit crunch?
Vacant dwellings?
Common sense?
Lack of greed?

Sorry I'm deluding myself with those last two!
Yes I screwed up buying 5 years ago, oh if only I knew then.......
But I be damned if I'm paying 80,000 more (250% increase)...
I may well be damned as well because it aint looking like their going down....


Ahhhh I feel better know, rant over....

Classic

There is a field opposite a million pound house that Catherine Zeta Jones built in The Mumbles which a nation chain is now going to build 'executive' houses on.

The same builders, back in 2002, built a small estate about a mile from my house and when I went to look at them the EA handling the sales told me that they had about 30 names down on each house already with some already having 50 names... so I would have to wait until all the houses backed out if I wanted to buy one.

I subsequently discovered that an EA, so I was told, bought serveral of the properies for anywhere from 130K to 180K and, ever since then, most have been let out with a couple remaining completely empty. In the past 6 months they have gradually begun to come back on the market at about 270K apiece. One mug paid 270K for one house that had been onthe market for about 14 months at 280K and had never had anyone live in it.

I mention the above because, a few weeks ago, I contacted the builder of the development in the Mumbles asking for details. Ever since then the EA has been ringing me up hassling me about when I intend to buy, how much I wish to spend and can I come down and have a look at the plans, etc.

Now, that is a big difference in attitude in 3 years. Back in 2002 they didn't want my business because, IMPO, they had already decided they wanted the houses for themselves and a big profit but, obviously, it seems they now want Joe Public to buy off-plan. That, to me, tells me that there is a big down-turn in demand from the Public looking at such houses but, as this is in a prime area, it shows the scale of the slow-down.

For some time I had wondered why EA's would want to price property ridiculously high, even though it means that there is almost no sales volume. Surely they would want to see prices drop a bit so that they can get commissions, even on a somewhat lower purchase prices.

I now think I know what has happened. Vast numbers of EA's, either corporately or individually, have bought up property. Either as BTL investments or simply to sell onto mugs prepared to pay exorbitant prices. They simply can't offord for prices to drop as it will mean that they will themselves be taking a huge hit financially.

As usual the EA's are acting in their own interests, rather than the interests of their clients.

You are absolutely correct in this, and it flabbergasted me when I first found out. It appears mostly to be in the form of buying flats off-plan. I remember one block where the developer was trumpeting 75% sold already. Guess what, most of them were to estate agents, and the other 25% have yet to sell.

Yep, a new build so-called 'executvie' estate a couple of miles away from me where I was told, back in early 2002 by VERY dis-interested EAs, that the avarage waiting list for each property was about 50 names, had properties on sale for 115K up to 180K,

I subsequently was told that an EA had bought most of them and several of them have been on the market last year and this for up to 280K. Only one has been sold - not convinced it was sold but possibly rented out - and I sure hope that EA loses alot of money.

I was actually, but I didn't immerse myself in it as much as this time (no internet!)

I have in fact quite a bit of experience of sites coming to a halt due to insolvency of contractors, clients gone bust, ground conditions etc.

What is more significant about a house builder/developer such as David Wilson halting work is that they are in complete control of the process. Therefore they must have had a compelling reason to stop.

To me, it doesn't make financial sense to halt progress at the stage they have. A significant proportion of the total project costs have been expended but there is no possibility of return in their half finished state.

I might ring their sales office and pose as a punter - but on the other hand those sales people really get in your face too much. Might try tomorrow.

This could explain why on the nethouseprices.com website, you sometimes see a whole tranche of completions going thorough on the same day for batch of properties with the same postcode.

Why throw good money after bad? If the bottom drops out of the market for flats, it's probably going to be much better to knock down a half-completed block and build a decent house there instead than to try to sell a completed block that no-one wants.

That said, I did notice two new 'this space acquired so we can demolish a nice old house and build new blocks of hugely overpriced flats' signs on our road last week. However, no real sign of building work... one had a JCB there, but that was that.

Amazingly, I did see someone going to view one of the 'starting price 350k' two-bedroom executive flats in one of the other blocks that have spawned in the last few months, but maybe it was just Mrs EA taking sandwiches to her husband while he vainly waited for a city banker with no brain to pass by.

Turns out it's actually going be 6 'luxury' 2-bed flats !!!!

Oh dear - how many more 2 bed flats do we need !!

The David Wilson site referred to at the top of this thread is still deserted.

I would estimate that the build costs would have been around 300 - 400k before the work ceased. It would therefore not be commercially viable to demolish and build something less slump proof at this stage of the build.

If a major housebuilder calls the market like this then it is worth sitting up and taking notice.

It is very, very ominous IMHO.

David Wilson is one of the medium players and one of the 'old fashioned' family businesses. They are a plc but the family still has a lot of influence

By contrast the big 4 are not and they cannot put sites on hold as easily

They all made approx half a billion profit last year and they need to sell approx 50,000 homes in 2005

Closing/suspending sites is just NOT an option

IMO two things will happen

1. The market picks up and hidden discounts/incentives will be enough to maintain volume

2. The market will not pick up and aggressive discounts will be on offer

Once one volume builder breaks rank, the rest will have to follow

It was a similar situation several months back. No builder was offering incentives, but once it starts, all the major players will follow

If one major starts knocking 40k off of a 2 bed flat, the rest will have NO choice but to follow

Obviously this won’t help local prices of second hand homes!

88 - I agree with most of what you've said. However suspension of works has been an option for this housebuilder.

If the market is deteriorating then it should make sense to get them shifted asap rather than wait for selling prices to decline further.

Where's your avatar gone btw?

Urban Hymn,
I'm afraid to report that the guys were up on the scaffold today on the site at The Vine. I too thought they'd stopped work.
Seems not

Oh my god, living next door to Pompey, that's got to be my worst nightmare.

I saw on TV recently that Pompey fans have the highest number of fans with facial tatoos in the premiership.

not to mention that fuc8ing bell !!!

Very interesting. If they have resumed work then the stoppage won't have gained them very much except perhaps a shorter selling window before sentiment turns even more against the wisdom of buying property.

I pass this site twice a day and I'll look to see if there is any obvious sign of work having been done.

They soon stopped again didn't they! - just putting windows in to keep the empty shell dry.

This development of "lifestyle" apartments (overlooking a gearbox factory) has been deserted for about 3 months now. Not some pi55pot local builder but David Wilson Homes part of Wilson Bowden plc.

What are they waiting for?

What part of the country is this?

I have observed closed site for many years and cannot understand how any developer in their right mind closes a site unless he’s gone bust. Imagine you are a developer. You raise the cash, purchase land, engage a builder and start work. The bank wants it's pound of flesh and is not interested in your problems. The longer the delay the longer you pay. Maybe I’m missing something. Somebody tell me if I am.
Another mystery is why does it take so long to build a house in this country? Considering how easy it is to construct a wood frame building, I cannot understand why the average house is not completed in a few months instead of 18 - 24 months.