They telegraphed the rate cut, yet stocks flew up on the day, and whilst the value of money is being destroyed, gold plummets.

Now explain all that.

come out a bit further....
Click to view attachment
not exactly 'meltdown' - more like correction, wake me when it hits 900, which should be sometime in 2012

Signalling the beginning of the next 'up' wave - or whatever its called. The next one will be wave 4.

I saw it being touted as the next investment on some news programme a couple of days back, citing that British-based Indians love their bling.

Maybe some major goldbugs got their shoes shined this week?

But it's probably setting the next "up" wave as others suggest.

Well, if you knew me as others here do, you'd know I'm really just taking the piss out of the doom mongers (largely gold bugs) who predicted all through 2004-2005-2006 the collapse of the stock market with their ridiculous "Black xxxday" prophecies. 2% falls were usually enough to set them off.

I should also point out that crashes occur after huge rises, not on recovery. Thus your chart means a gold crash is more likely than a stock market crash was post 2003.

I looks more like we might get a full head, then a shoulder formation.

I think gold fell because the market had priced in a 1% cut, plus the latest data in the CPI in US and UK, showing lower inflation, than what the market believed in is not bullish. Especially if the trend towards lower inflation goes on, gold would roll over, and we would then see a completion of the head formation, then a shoulder.

OMG, wave counters. I think it was 7 years ago I trialled them out. I thought gold's movement was based on fundamentals rather than technicals?

I've looked at charts for so long I just read them w/o indicators. They have a certain essence. When you slap on technical indicators you find they fit what you see as a "correct shape". I can place likely retracement points to within ~0.25% of fib levels just by looking at a chart. When you can read charts like that you can be right 70% of the time. When you come to trad ethose feelings the figure deteriorates due to broken stops etc, but all in all, with 10 to 15 years of constant study and dedication you can be right about 50% of the time.

The market hadn't even priced in a 3/4 point cut, otherwise it would not have gone up 400 points.

when the bbc starts ramping gold, you don't need shoe shine boys.........

haha,

the gold bull hasn't even started yet........wake me up when it reaches $7000 an oz and then we'll talk.....

Which was probably enough to have all serious gold bugs selling!

I never heard anyone quite so confident about stocks over the past 3 years. But they did go up.

I can personally make the case for gold, but it always worries me when people throw out such inflated targets with utter confidence. It's the contrarian in me I guess. Makes me worried.

Haha.

... and with that we get a collapse in oil inventories. Glut followed by famine.

Margin calls?

Cheaper is good

Gold's given up about a weeks gains in GBP terms.. We're still in overbought territory on the RSI and MACD..hardly a meltdown!! that's not even a buying oppurtunity!!

I likes the cut of your jib

That's wrong:) It was good news from investment banks. And sort of a nervous relief after the trouble that have been lately.

But he also have his opinion on the matter: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/18/market-thought/

You might say the gold market reacted as alternative 1, and the stock market as alternative 2, plus the nervous relief effect I explained.

I'd have thought blue chips would have gone the same way in that case.

And cheaper is only good if it's short term. Look at poor old Doctor Doom. Lost his reputation and then job for calling the top in dotcom, ie collapse came too late. Then after calling th etop in the housing market, he curled his toes up b4 seeing that pan out. In the long term we're alll ...

Just a shakeout...or something more?

ditto

Still overbought in RSI and MACD???

And whose parameters are you using? What timescale is the chart?

You make it sound like an absolute reality. It's an indicator dude. If people play the chart shorter term they will trade bearish and that can make it bearish medium term. That will make medium term players bearish and that will make the chart eventually look bearish long term. Charts aren't sttaic. They evolve.

Ah well, win some lose some While I do hold some gold, it's not enough to lose sleep over... the gold bull run has been a lot of fun and if it all goes wrong, well, at least I've got some shiny yellow metal to look at!

Probably. . People seem at a loss as to where to stuff their shrinking fortunes. Rightly or wrongly they scuttle into anything that's going up, even if it pays no income. Then again, what use is fixed interest with prices going up (I won't say inflation as that is a concept that has lost all meaning and credibility under our collective administrations)?

Much the same position as me, except all I have is a rather nasty spread bet position that require funding at libor+X. Not much fun.

As I understand it:

Gold is thought to reflect the value of currency or used to?

We had a rate cut from the fed and as has been pointed out you would have expected gold to rise. It didn't.

It has been known at these times of crisis central banks will sell or "lease" more gold to protect the value of currency. Thus propping up the value of the dollar, and giving the banks a window to bail out of bad positions with all that lovely new money slopping around the system.

The IMF has also said it is prepared to sell off some of it's gold in a crisis. This is all very well while there is gold to sell or "leasing" deals that can be made, when they have sold off all the gold and can no longer lease it, what happens then?

Exactly how much of our gold did Gordon Brown sell and how much is left? Does anyone think this leaves the pound brutally exposed the last time it crashed it was interest rates and gold that stopped it going further. But, this time have we as a nation got the same amount of gold in relation to the amount of our currency?

It will be interesting to see how long they can keep up the trick of inflating the money supply with the price of gold then going down, it seems they have managed to turn gold in to something approaching a fiat currency? Will the lid ever come off ?

See: http://www.gata.org/

Sorry should have mentioned standard 1 year chart. RSI 20 (or 14), MACD 26,12,9. Sure, charts evolve.. consequently its a bit early to call a major medium-term negative divergence don't you think?

Ah, I see you are from the weather vane school of speculating. Personally, I prefer predictions ahead of happenings. Each to his own. ( )

Honestly. longterm charts are just great for people with several years of accumulated profits, but singularly hopeless for anyone considering enterting on the basis of momentum. I love these guys who tell you -25% is nothing to worry about. It is when that's your hit! Four trades like that and you've lost 2/3rds of your money.

Just out of interest, do 'Gold in Meltdown' threads belong in the Precious Metals forum, or is that just gold ramping threads?

Oh come on !, this is the doomsday forum .

Is it because it's options expiry week? They always seem to be able to get the gold price temporarily down for this.

If it's the end of the 6 year bull market then there must have been some sort of sea change in the fundamentals but I can't think what that might have been.

Luckily, every single ounce of gold I've ever bought is safely in the money.. so I can afford to sleep easy at night for now..



Short-term momentum trading is perhaps singularly the fastest way either to the poor house, or to open-heart bypass surgery for all but the lucky few- take your pick! That's just IMO, of course.. YMMV and all that..

Well, there's another useless piece of information (sorry). Who cares what your situation is? You sound like a btl investor with 10 million in equity. It's really of no use to us as information. It also has no bearing on whether your view will prove to be more or less correct.

And if it's sleep you desire try national savings index linked bonds. There was me thinking the idea was to hedge ones cash position ... hey hum.

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/arc...-Look-Like.aspx

def.....

This was in MoneyWeek today:

"If you’re a technical trader, then you should look for a first line of support around $970 at the 21-day moving average. If it goes there and holds that is very good for the technical picture. Gold will have retraced, consolidated and be gathering cause for the next move up, unlike April 2006 when it overextended itself. If it does this, it is good for gold. It will prolong the duration of this run. I may even begin revising up my target high for the year of $1,150-£$1,200"

Seems like a whoops to me as Gold is curently at $945

Basically my view is that it does not matter if Gold goes down or up in my opinion - but what does matter is the singularly greedy and aggressive style of each and every gold ramper I have ever come across. Gollum is almost cahrismatic in comparison........

Does Gold + Troll make "Goll" as in Gollum?

Oh no.

We've had to endure enough people harping on about Gold going up, so it's only fair we enjoy our schadenfreude (sp?) on the way down.

Nothing like a bit of positive discrimination, eh?

I mean, it must be good -- it has 'positive' in it!

Sure, noone gives a toss what my personal situation is. The point was trying to illustrate where i was coming from in terms of looking at things from a short-term/long-term point of view when it comes to trading.. note i did qualify the statement with 'for now', meaning i do not need to sweat over a minor pullback.. a major deterioration of the charts (such as one can see on the FTSE, Dow, S&P500) would be another story..



Thanks for the tip. And yes, hedging ones bets it often a wise move. Being 100% in anything is rarely a wise idea.. cash and.or gold included..

if you are feeling schadenfreude on a slight correction you must be very simple.

You would surely have ejaculated several times if you were to witness the pullback in May 2006.

942 is the 23.8% retrace of the move up from august or so. Under that 927 but looks to be forming a base at 942. It did stay at 970 for 50mins though!

I was simply following the style of our esteeemed goldbugs.

Usually, gold threads bore me, especially on a house price forum, but I've make an exception, just for you.

It's a good thing I cashed in a little profits when it was hovering over the $1026 mark a few days back - that 500 quid will do nicely for the easter hols
And as for the 'smackdown': is that all they have got? I want the price to drop to $850 so I can go ALL IN. Come on cartel, are you getting sloppy? I want some more, MORE I tell you...bwhahahaha [the world is not enough]

It certainly is getting hammered.

Gold will only go into meltdown when investors believe interest rates > inflation and are likely to stay there for a while.

This is an IMF selloff.

That will explain why the dollar has risen slightly also.

It looks like it has occured to soften the blow of the IR cut.

Expect gold to rise substantally next week.

This is just a nice buying oppertunity and nothing more.........I think we'll all be surprised at how quickly it rebounds.

Don't worry guys because as all the g**d bugs say its "obvious" when a bear market is starting and you'd have to be an "idiot" not to get out.

The november consolidation has me seeing the rise since then as retraceable to ~933. However the very steep rises we've had are no cause for complacency, indeed quite the opposite. But what can you do? A few months back Merv was telling us all to sell shares. Now his wish has come true he wishes he had more scope to cut rates. We can now only conclude that monetary policy will be easier than it could be in firmer markets. That has to be inflationary, which should be supportive og gold. How supportive? Well <smiles>, that's when we reach for out charts and indicators. It's a crazy world ....

Even in a deflationary environment - when credit is being destroyed - gold will still rise - simply due to the fact that its price has been surpressed for so long and it has no counterparty risk. It is a great store of value.

Inflation or deflation........gold will still win for quite some time.

"If you don't trust gold, do you trust the logic of taking a beautiful pine tree, worth about $4,000 - $5,000, cutting it up, turning it into pulp and then paper, putting some ink on it and then calling it one billion dollars?"

Kenneth J. Gerbino

read here for more quotes............wiser men than me have got the idea.

http://www.investmentrarities.com/famousquotes.html

etf's have never been tested in severe turbulence...wonder how gold etfs will fare in the future...