It has just occurred to me how significant all that is happening in the world of economics at the moment. Some might think we are going through just another minor blip, which will soon pass and all will be alright in the world again before long banks will start dishing out mortgages again and house prices will soon rise again.
I am sorry for those people who believe this for what ever reason but they will be disappointed or worse still dispossessed! I believe what is happening now will be looked back upon just like the thirties depression !!! It could even be worse.
The prosperity that has been created since WW2 has been based on an expansion of credit the like of which will not be seen again in our life times!!!!
If I am right then the implications for asset values is dire. 500K for an average semi will be seen like tulip mania. Asset values like that of house prices have not risen because of supply problems but because of available credit and greed just like all bubbles.
An asset like a house can only be bought for what some one can afford to pay. If credit dries up the the price of houses will collapse. Poor Tony Dye Dr Doom who just passed away was an optimist in predicting a 30% fall in house prices I feel it could be a whole lot worse.
Wadisgod cash is king
Full Version: Major Pivital Shift In The History Of Economics
"The prosperity that has been created since WW2 has been based on an expansion of credit the like of which will not be seen again in our life times!!!! "
Not entirely fair. There have been massive improvements in productivity and technology-led growth since WWII. Think of the qaulity and cost of mechanical and electrical goods, everything from vacuum cleaners to computers. That's not to say credit expansion hasn't been overdone although I would argue the problem is more from the 80's onwards.
A depression may be coming but hopefully it will be a high-tech one ;-)
UM
Not entirely fair. There have been massive improvements in productivity and technology-led growth since WWII. Think of the qaulity and cost of mechanical and electrical goods, everything from vacuum cleaners to computers. That's not to say credit expansion hasn't been overdone although I would argue the problem is more from the 80's onwards.
A depression may be coming but hopefully it will be a high-tech one ;-)
What planet are you from?
the cost of electrical goods has fallen because of the deflation effect of china and India etc (BRIC economies) this will not be repeated! It is not a product of of increased productivity!Just temporary slave labour!
I could be wrong , but not by much!!
A depression may be coming but hopefully it will be a high-tech one ;-)
What planet are you from?
the cost of electrical goods has fallen because of the deflation effect of china and India etc (BRIC economies) this will not be repeated! It is not a product of of increased productivity!Just temporary slave labour!
I could be wrong , but not by much!!
QUOTE (ursamajor @ Mar 16 2008, 05:45 PM) 
"The prosperity that has been created since WW2 has been based on an expansion of credit the like of which will not be seen again in our life times!!!! "
Not entirely fair. There have been massive improvements in productivity and technology-led growth since WWII. Think of the qaulity and cost of mechanical and electrical goods, everything from vacuum cleaners to computers. That's not to say credit expansion hasn't been overdone although I would argue the problem is more from the 80's onwards.
A depression may be coming but hopefully it will be a high-tech one ;-)
UM
Not entirely fair. There have been massive improvements in productivity and technology-led growth since WWII. Think of the qaulity and cost of mechanical and electrical goods, everything from vacuum cleaners to computers. That's not to say credit expansion hasn't been overdone although I would argue the problem is more from the 80's onwards.
A depression may be coming but hopefully it will be a high-tech one ;-)
UM
And the last few years have all been financial engineering and derivatives. The creation of wealth has been illusory.
Sorry but can you read the original post as you are quoting from two different posts.
QUOTE (ursamajor @ Mar 16 2008, 05:45 PM)
"The prosperity that has been created since WW2 has been based on an expansion of credit the like of which will not be seen again in our life times!!!! "
Not entirely fair. There have been massive improvements in productivity and technology-led growth since WWII. Think of the qaulity and cost of mechanical and electrical goods, everything from vacuum cleaners to computers. That's not to say credit expansion hasn't been overdone although I would argue the problem is more from the 80's onwards.
A depression may be coming but hopefully it will be a high-tech one ;-)
UM
Not entirely fair. There have been massive improvements in productivity and technology-led growth since WWII. Think of the qaulity and cost of mechanical and electrical goods, everything from vacuum cleaners to computers. That's not to say credit expansion hasn't been overdone although I would argue the problem is more from the 80's onwards.
A depression may be coming but hopefully it will be a high-tech one ;-)
UM
I agree that improvements in productivity and technology have lead growth; BUT. The entire economy has evolved around cheap transportation costs. Part of a productive organisations job is to maximise efficiency but in times of easily available labour they don't consider the transportation costs of thier workers. At the turn of this century all workers lived in close proximity to thier respective points of productivity and the goods travelled the distance. Now; the goods travel the distance but so do the workers.
Energy efficient, I don't think so.
The current economic philosophy is based on the true value of money in the minds of people that value it. The reallity is that the economy does not have a pshcology, it is not a person, it is just a machine.
If we experience a collapse of the economy and our politicians start spewing the same old crap about the value of money, competition, globalisation, cheap labour; I can assure you they will create hell on earth for the people of this country.
RANT over.
QUOTE (Decom @ Mar 19 2008, 09:09 PM)
I agree that improvements in productivity and technology have lead growth; BUT. The entire economy has evolved around cheap transportation costs. Part of a productive organisations job is to maximise efficiency but in times of easily available labour they don't consider the transportation costs of thier workers. At the turn of this century all workers lived in close proximity to thier respective points of productivity and the goods travelled the distance. Now; the goods travel the distance but so do the workers.
Energy efficient, I don't think so.
The current economic philosophy is based on the true value of money in the minds of people that value it. The reallity is that the economy does not have a pshcology, it is not a person, it is just a machine.
If we experience a collapse of the economy and our politicians start spewing the same old crap about the value of money, competition, globalisation, cheap labour; I can assure you they will create hell on earth for the people of this country.
RANT over.
Energy efficient, I don't think so.
The current economic philosophy is based on the true value of money in the minds of people that value it. The reallity is that the economy does not have a pshcology, it is not a person, it is just a machine.
If we experience a collapse of the economy and our politicians start spewing the same old crap about the value of money, competition, globalisation, cheap labour; I can assure you they will create hell on earth for the people of this country.
RANT over.
I am not sure I have a clue what you are talking about!
At the turn of the century manufacture took place at the point of easy availability of raw materials.
As for the rant at the end I can only imagine that LSD is cheap where you live!!
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