With the TDGTTS report due out over the weekend, the question on everyones lips is how many reductions this week? 600? 700? 800? 900? 1000+?

Well in an effort to amuse myself this evening I have started the TDGTTS sweepstake!

Simply put forward the number of reductions you think will appear this weekend. Don't be shy!

The closest winning entry will be entered into the rolling hall of fame, and receive a fantasy property bonus each week as shown below




http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...amp;p=PNC208901

864 reductions

925 reductions

haha, great idea! I'm feeling like it'll be a naughty, nine hundred and nineteen - 919!

btw that re-worded ad cracked me up! haha!

734 reductions!

799

Its up 803 reductions

http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com/Prope...NI/08.03.08.htm

SUBBY WINS!

Congratulations on your property win too. What do you plan to build on the site, a wendy house????

Reductions looking good this week - several I have bookmarked as being on market for months have dropped 50k - I'll share that champagne with you subby

Noticed the 2nd house from the bottom 48 Bally Rd Ballymena was reduced last week but has been put back up in price. wounder why

Don't you read the Belfast Tele? The market's turned - evrything is hunky dory

Congrats Subby.

I wonder will the market level off? Then I look at the history of other housing bubbles for the answer.

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee......!!!!!!

I haven't read today's tele - is there a link doocyboy?

I was looking at a graph compaing 'all UK' HP data vs. NI on Bosco's HP falls poll and there is (or rather was) some correlation between 'all UK' HP avg. data and NI HP avg. data. (see here)

As you can see both data sets rise at a similar rate and you can see how NI misses the boom and bust of the late 80's / early 90's.

Anyway, another way of looking at comparing these two sets of data is to calculate the difference (£) for each quarter and plot this difference (NI minus all UK) against time (see below)




Again you can see the effect of NI 'missing' the early boom and bust, and you can also see the difference of the last three years. Interestingly the last 'optimum' time to buy here when compared to 'all of the UK' was 2004.

data = natwide quarterly nominal avg. HPs post 73

Sorry PP I was being facetious about the Tele.

Interesting graph - I just find it difficult to understand how the curve become so exagerrated Ni v UK. The economists in years to come will have plenty of material to write about.

WoW!

Can I just say say... thanks PP.

So what do you think the return to trend/normal is going to look like?

What will that 'return to trend' mean for house prices in Northern Ireland?

Can you factor in the likely recession in the USA, Republic of Ireland and UK?

Hi BB

My thoughts on the 'return to trend' are dependent on two different answers;

The first 'answer' would see the initial correction of the rapid 'spike', the second answer would focus on the underlying performance of the UK housing market in general.

For me, the second answer is far more harder to quantify (or at least try and quantify) as this is dependent on far more variables. I hear what your saying about the likely recession and the fact that the UK and Ireland have current account defecits 'down' there with the US does not help. Sometimes, I try and play 'devils advocate' to see where the answer may lie and look at the 'positive' aspects of NI future economy etc. But rather than go into that now (I am quite 'bullish' on Belfast in the long term!), I have to acknowledge the seemingly oncoming recession and the USA's in-ability (thus-far) to deal with it. Fragile times indeed .

Sorry, if the answers are a bit vague, but I think I know what's going to happen to NI HPs in the short term, it's the long term that I cannot get to grips with because of the unprecedented times we find ourselves in.

Good answer!

I know my questions are impossible to answer.

Uncharted territory?

I know I may seem extreme on this website.

However, you are one of the posters I have always respected here.

Sorry if my previous arguments with other people have annoyed you.

I have been told that I am very dogmatic in my opinions!

Sorry.

ce la vie

Looking back on 'things' here a few weeks ago, I was a bit annoyed with what happened about you-know-who , he did bring balance in a way which made me question things from a different angle. But, in retrospect, I do acknowledge that he could be a bit headstrong with his opinion

After my business with Vicmac, I was (or am) trying to diffuse the 'personal' side of arguments on here, but I am not a mod and I need to get some perspective from time to time as well!!

I personally don't think you are 'extreme', as any NI bear here knows about house price bubbles more than most. TBH, I agree with a lot of what you say, but I do wonder whether the affordability ratios of the last 30 years are being replaced by 'newer' ones as a result of prolonged low interest rates. But having said (or written) that, I read a quote today that was quite fitting; House Prices are determined by what the banks are willing to lend - credit crunch anyone!!

I have said it before and will say it again, the quality of posters on the NI Forum is unsurpassed on any other area of hpc (% posts per poster). just my humble opinion of course

Uncharted territory?

Indeed

and for the first time in my life I bought some gold this week. I need to start going on some other forums!! maybe the singing pig will sort me out

Now that is scary! lol

I have read the entire gold thread. I really miss it

Gold was £330 an troy ounce in August 2007.

Now trading at £484. High £497.

That is why the inflation, deflation, stagflation argument is so important to me.

My personal opinion is that western governments will print money (inflation) like never before! (nothing to stop them - there is no gold standard!)

Example = Northern Rock. Anyone heard of them?

Are commodities the next bubble?

I have to be very careful here but you know that thread still exists somewhere else, if you find one of Dr. Bubbs posts, he has his own website you know.........

re - gold / commodities / inflation / deflation etc.

My thoughts are that maybe a little bit of gold can serve as insurance policy against rampant inflation, hopefully it will not come to this, like i say insurance (I am not a gold bug so please note everyone I will not be telling you to buy gold in every other post!)

I hope that a house price deflation will not be accompanied by rampant commodity inflation, I hope that cash will be 'king' soon enough. However, the seemingly unstoppable rise in oil prices and the perverse situation that exists in the US with regard to FEDs option of trashing the dollar as the worldwide currency in an effort to save their economy worries me

Never have the words 'balanced portfolio' been so important as now IMHO

Big Brother is watching us

I'd like to thank my ex-wife, my cat, my daughter, my girlfriend, my agent, my bottle of red which is a cheeky number and above all Mystic Meg for her insider tip

doh! - I can see that now!

I was getting too excited about the prospect of reading HC's next instalment of property surreality!

OK Peeps, lets have some guesses for this weekend coming!

Winner(s) so far:
Subby 8th March

this weeks fantasy property
21 Queen Victoria Gardens, Belfast, Antrim , BT15 3LW only 69k (reduced from 89k)
http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...amp;p=PNC181372

Requiring complete refurbishment works this home is not for the faint hearted, however, with a little imagination or hard work(HARD WORK I THINK) this once fine period home will make a superb 2 bedroom family home. The accommodation comprises 2 bedrooms, 2 reception rooms, kitchen and bathroom. (NO ROOF!)The property is sold as seen with all contents remaining.(INCLUDING THE BREEZE BLOCK WINDOW EFFECT) This is a home with superb potential making immediate viewing a must.
* Period Town Terrace
* Requiring Total Refurbishment
* 2 Bedrooms
* 2 Reception Rooms
* Kitchen
* Bathroom
* Front Lawn
* No Roof
* Ever Improving Location
* Ideal Investment (FOR FOOLS)
***This property is enabled for the BT Home Hub***(OH THANK GOD FOR THAT)

847 reductions

The house of my dreams! I must try harder this week.


931

to keep the band wagon rolling.....963

830

860

BB? MD? Lets hear your guesses please

Sure, 'tis only a bit of fun

881

yeah hurry up you two!

961

802...if wrong - Can there be a recount...

849

http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com/Prope...NI/15.03.08.php

subby again by the looks of it.

1106 Decreases, Nice!

Some of these developers are smoking crack, look at this

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?p=PNC288367

3 Bedroom apartment in Portstewart (£695K) reduced from £850K

LOL someone had this place for sale at £850K!

There's also a couple in that block at 950k reduced.


Lots of development land trying to find a buyer with a measly 50k off.

Remember, there's a great shortage of development land in NI! And we're soooo close to another capital!

I can't get this link to work, am I the only one?

Its stopped working for some reason - its not on the main site yet - I'll try later.

Thanks for the quick reply doccy!

still not working 4 me. Maybe they're updating it or something. Thats alot of drops though.... just in time for the spring recovery.

ok folks Wednesday's lottery numbers will be....3, 13, 16, 22,35 and 44

You never know, those could be the numbers, and you could be a millionaire!

And with those millions, you MIGHT just be able to afford a 3 bed flat in Portstewart LOL

With all the scary doom and gloom on the main forum its good to have a laugh here

Hold that result - its changed to 840 drops - how weird.

http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com/Prope...NI/15.03.08.php


The developments seem to have been taken out.