Little has been said about Irish Banks, however we all know that things have been anything but sane in Ireland South and North concerning mortgage and cc lending.

I think the following report should give cause for very serious concern - would be interested in hearing your opinions on this....

Coincidentally BOI interest rates are high right now..... So are A&Ls....

http://www.thebusiness.co.uk/news-and-********...f-ireland.thtml

Interesting link vicmac

"But investors are entitled to be circumspect about the bank's chances of achieving that growth. Around 46% of BoI's loan portfolio is in U.K. and Irish mortgages, and another 24% in U.K. and Irish commercial property. That 70% mortgage exposure contrasts with domestic rival Allied Irish Banks' U.K. and Ireland loan exposure of 51%."

Taking into account this 'contrast' there seems to have been little effect of this difference with regard to the share price?

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&...=l&c=ALBK.L

Maybe this contrast will be more evident in the respective share prices later this year? as more detail on holdings comes to light.

but then again, the above graph compares a euro stock and a sterling stock and we must take into consideration an approximate 12% swing over the last year in favour of the euro

This newspaper seems concerned too

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/de...ks-1303667.html

Amazing! 80% of loans property related - what an indictment of a society obsessed with selling property to themselves

Vespasian - this whole slowdown comes from the Credit Crunch - the banks are not in a position to carry on as before - and as such we now have the unhinging of the fundamentals of a broken and in many ways corupt financial system.
The numbers do not add up - and most surely we will now reap the whirlwind of fear, repossessions, banruptcies and possible very possible failures of financial institutions.

At the end of this I dread to think what will await us - though you can be assured it will have nothing to do with freedom referendum on or democracy. Indeed I believe we have lost this already - example the refusal to give us a referendum on further European integration speaks volumes of the knavish leaders we now have.

Slightly off topic, but when I listen to news reports about tight credit i sometimes wounder how much of a crunch there is or is it an excuse for banks to make even more proffit. For example HSBC reported it lost £8.7bn. However It made £12.8bn pre tax profits up 10% on previous year. The report should read HSBC made £21.5bn last year but after adjustments the pre tax profit stood at £12.8bn up 10% on last year. So when people want to borrow the same old story will come spewing out, due to the credit crunch we have to charge you more did you not hear we lost £8.7bn due to this credit crunch. Banks will be cashing in on this for years.

I think the 8.7 "loss" was actual bad debt and not actually a loss per say....anyone able to verify that???

Read it on sky business

http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30400-1307645,00.html

Don't know if this is confirmation but if it was reported on sky business that the property market lost 20% last month sky business would be quoted as fact.
HSBC still made £12.2bn not bad for any business.

Have you heard the term 'creative accounting'?

Yes I've read some of your posts

I'm one big bad bear.

At least you are in the right place then! lol! I enjoy your posts because you challenge my thinking and I'd like to think that I will challenge yours a little in the coming weeks. Somewhere in between our views probably lies the truth but only time will tell.

are you md in disguise

I have history on my side. You argue with history if you want.

Those who forget...

I am not MD in disguise, and while I may have agreed with some of what he said he did waffle on so much that by the time I finished reading just his post I was ready for a bottle of red, a cigar and some time out! lol! Also I'm not trying to argue with history, all I'm saying is that while history MAY give an indication of future economic cycles, it does not mean that those predicted cycles will actualy occur!?! Predictions from either side are best guesses-they are not fact! They may or may not happen! Time will prove if me and you were either right or wrong! I expect the next HPI quarterly report for Nothern Ireland to report further falls (partly because of inflated asking prices that may not have been achievable even at the peak). In Quarter 3 I expect house prices to stabilize slightly and fully stabilze by Q4, mainly because in some areas prices have already dipped so low that institutional investors have re-entered the market due to the attainable rent exceeding the mortgage outgoings, thus giving a positive yield and a 'real' reason to invest in NI property! Capital gains at this point will just be an added bonus for 'real' investors!

The Maths have been done here, a fall of 50% from peak value is needed to cover an IO mortgage. Throw in related expenses (rates,insurance,stamp duty & legal fees) along with a more reluctant lending environment, I'd say a bloodbath is required. While people were keen to buy and rely on capital growth, I dare say the future for BTL is quite cloudy

IMO, that would be a classic bull trap. The days of silly increases are over and this is for numerous reasons and this is what attracted many of the specuvestors (or flippers). Regarding yields, everything I have read makes me think it would be better investing in a high interest bank account than property for the foreseeable. There is virtually no risk, guaranteed yearly yield and you get get at the equity any time you like.

Actually, I'd quite like to see investors dive back in again, just to watch them get screwed over once the drops pick up momentum again after the bull trap. Not for spiteful reasons, of course, but just to teach them a lesson they can't forget, if they haven't already learnt it since last summer!

Ultimately though, I'm not convinced a bull trap will even happen - the falls are coming in so thick and fast, it wouldn't be something wise investors would gamble on.

Looks like some " experts" agree with you
http://www.independent.ie/unsorted/propert...ng-1311192.html



and some more from the main thread


http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/mar/0...oneyinvestments


No more takers for dream of becoming property millionaire

· Buy-to-let investment firm ends learner workshops
· Business model collapses in face of lending crisis

* Patrick Collinson
* The Guardian,
* Saturday March 8 2008
* Article history


Britain's biggest property investment company, which boasted in newspaper ads that investors could "give up work and be a property millionaire instead", said yesterday it would suspend seminars and cut 40 jobs - in the latest sign that the buy-to-let fuelled property boom is over.

Don't tell all those 'real' institutional investors that.

in case you didn't see it

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=70410

Many thanks PP - seen it this morning (my first port of call is hpc.co.uk)

Its common sense really - you cant lend the amounts they did to the people they were lending to in many cases.....

It was pure unadulterated folly.

With the Irish Economy so dependent on Housing, there has probably been a major VI effort (Builders & Banks) to prevent loans defaulting and builders going under. They have been crashing for over a year, FFS! I see even now Bertie is saying its all gonna go tits up
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/ge...ch-1313149.html

I think they are now at the end of their tether - hardly a word during the whole credit crunch and suddenly!!!!!

There are rumours, Vicmac on propertypin that banks were giving builders in the ROI until April to shift property before they called in loans. May/June may make very interesting reading

Yeah Vespasian I heard the same thing ref builders in Northern Ireland as well - that was before christmas and the word on the street back then was March April too...

This is going to get very ugly very quickly.....

If we have worked out here what is going to happen: I'll guarantee the banks know what is going to happen.

The banks lend out the money which forced up prices. Now the banks need to try and get their money back before the sheeple waken up.

If there are no signs of the market picking up, in the next couple of months, then this will get very bad, very quick.

Imagine what will happen to house prices if banks start to repossess entire developments!

I think this will happen very quickly now - and as soon as the first bank is seen to move in force all other lenders will do so within days - so watch and listen for that dam buster event.

I hope you get the property you want BB, at a fair price.

Have you opted for a safer harbour than sterling - I haven't to date but I think I will have to make a decision this week for sure - its my guess this derivatives bubble is about to burst - I think that is what is pushing gold up. PP woke me up the other day in one of his posts - and I think he could well be right.

BB I also think if you wait a little longer yu may get a distressed house perhaps with a 20k kitchen or added value that some moron has done thinking house prices only ever go up.... A very real possibility that such buys will be marked to market average. Just like cars used to be and will soon be as a consequence of a downturn is used car sales. In other words get a Ghia for the same price as an LX.

First owner houses are unlikely to offer such dividends though they will be the first to depreciate quickly as the banks try to get them off their books.

I have pm'd you there Vicmac - so let me know if it doesn't come through.

I took our discussions from the other day and picked md's brains over a few things on Subby's 'Fed Cuts Rates By .75%' thread.

There's some very usefull content there especially from the likes of md, mmca22gr and Rock-n-Roll: these posters evidently know a lot more than me regarding commodities and I'm glad we have got their opinions on board.

and of course just to say, a mixed-spread of investments is always sensible, don't just back the one horse

edit -typo

If that happens - and there is every possibility that it will - that would be really scary.

Everyone is about to learn - banks are a business - banks are not your friend!!!


You can be sure - I am working hard on my house buying strategy. I spend several hours every day reading about the subject.


I used to spend several hours everyday worrying about how to protect my STR fund. I don't worry any more. I am protected, 100% guaranteed!

My decision to get out of sterling is totally based on what I see happening to the Northern Ireland and world housing bubble. Lets hope I'm wrong!


I have not quoted all of your post. I'm really not convinced by the New World Order stuff.

However, without the gold standard, western governments will magic money out of thin air (inflation) to prevent a financial collapse.

Essential resourses that are competed for, by many countries in the world economy, will become much more expensive as the dollar (and the pound with it) decline in value, as more money is printed out of thin air, to prevent our economies from financial collapse.

I sincrely hope I am wrong. But - in my own mind - I am certain about what is going to happen to Northern Ireland house prices. I have based all my financial decisions on this certainty. I also believe it is better to own something, rather than nothing (I don't own sterling).

I don't worry anymore. But everyday I do doubt my certainty... then I read what is going on in the world and I feel better!

PP many thanks for your PM, will get back to you by PM shortly. Have looked at one or two options which I'll explain later for your opinion.

Once again many thanks.

Good man - now its time I did the same - I've had enough of this fiat currency.

no worries m8

I am just setting myself up for some quality rugby, i.e. next to a bar!

Unfortunately didn't manage to see the game (was preparing for a wedding I have to shoot on Mon sussing out the venue).

Anyone expecting financial Armageddon and rushing to gold better have the malleable, physical stuff rather than the contract notes through ETC's. When the Fed cut on Tuesday by 100bps the price of gold will temporarily toilet. Could be a good buying opportunity.

Also in Ireland Standard and Poor's have downgraded Irish Life and Permanent [inc’l TSB] from stable to risk. Love to see a bank run with ECB intervention. Send the euro down the loo hopefully.

MD - I think that as you say gold will go up and down - but I can only see the value rising overall in med term future. I really do believe the govts and central banks are in a deliberately self induced no win situation. This is going to get really messy and its also going to sour a lot of peoples attitude towards all banks.

And for this reason - Both NR and Bear Stearns denied any problems even at the last minute this was their cry!!!

Why should people believe the words of ANY OF THE BANKS ? Do you? I'd be surprised if you did.

Irish Life and Permanent is big news - its the start of the Irish unwind - which I predict will escalate exponentially -

hi MD
dont know about gold going down tuesday
think the fed cut may already be priced in it certainly wont be news

there seems to be real fear about this weekend in the markets
a lot of bulls with smelly pants
this week could very easily end up in the history books
or maybe not we will soon find out

perhaps we should take jim rodgers advice at the end of this clip
and get our hands dirty!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYkYF70tUmA

rock on!!! rednecks!!

This is the first thing that occurred to me

credit spoon for the heads up on this

the £ seems to have slipped up some more against the euro of late

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURGBP=X&t=1d

edit - corrected detail

2nd edit - here's the proper link to spoons thread;

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=70946

I don't know what happened to the above hpc link- but it's the wrong one now!!

no matter, GBP is sliding against the euro at a particular quick pace at the moment though

any ideas anyone?

ps- happy St.Patricks Day everyone

edit - saw this earlier on yahoo and didn't know what to make of it, however, I would say at this point that the £ is 'bunched' with the $ when it comes to the euro strengh

'The shock news, the biggest sign yet of how devastating the credit crisis is for Wall Street, slammed the U.S. dollar to a record low against the euro, pummelled Asia stock markets and boosted gold and low-risk bonds.,

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080317/tts...ed-ca02f96.html

Hey PP - heres one from market oracle mike whitney - seems this derivates beast is the real problem and it would seem that our financial system is in such a mess that it cannot be fixed... Note his words at the end - they include the words 'hucksters' and 'flim flam men'


http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4037.html


Is this not the most sophisticated fraud ever?

Thanks for the link Vicmac - whatever our analysis of the current situation, I think we can be all agreed that we're now in for a bumpy ride!

On another note, forums like this are great because they allow freedom of speech and exchange of ideas; IMHO, if a forum is to thrive then it's success is dependent on many things especially the ability to accomodate posters with alternate viewpoints. For example, a forum with md and BB on it provides great scope for fence sitters like me, it needs both of them though.

right peeps- going to be offline for a while whilst I spend some long overdue quality time with the family, I hope BB's back here when I 'get back'

I agree - this has turned out a great wee forum with great posters - I take back everything I said a while back.