my mate from my footy forum's posted this to my warnings of a crash,....


"...Subby mate, what your saying is complete ******** im afraid.

The main problem is people thinking that house valuations are house prices. Thats not the case. What a house actually sells for is the agreed sale price and as such House prices are pretty much steady, slight decrease but thats due to increased competition and tighter lending/more sense in the market.

This year you will find that agents will tighten up on their valuations but that house sales will actually go through on a level consistent with the latter part of last year.

A lot of silly people were having their properties valued last year and a lot of silly agents were going in high to get the business, its these people that are now having to rethink but not for one moment has a £150k house which was put on for £170k and which subsequently has now been "reduced" to £150k lost value.

Figures mean ****** all, stats lie all the time, but whilst there is no doubt the Housing market is a lot tighter now and people have to think about the prices I would definitely say the housing market will not crash!....."




any suitable replies please???

Point your mate to Alan Bridle's assessment in Q4 NI House Price Index for starters - the graph towards the back is a peach http://www.bankofireland.co.uk/pdf/BoI_Hou...dex_Q4_2007.pdf. Also point him to the auction figures that I am shortly about to publish to http://nipropertyauctions.googlepages.com/if he really wants to see the actual figures of what stuff is shifting for and let him make up his own mind about which way the market is going.

Do you really need to say anything more than compare average earnings in NI with house prices?

Compare rents to IO mortgages too.

Discussion on how lax money lending lead to people borrowing too much, which pushed up prices. The reverse will happen on the way down, now that money lending is tighter. If people can't get 6 x salary, 100% IO, then the prices *must* come down to at least the price point where a mortgage can be achieved.

Explain how the prices were half of what they are now just 2 years ago (more or less). Has their been a population explosion? No! Has there been massive wage inflation? No! What has changed? Not a lot, other than rampant lending and speculation. Both have dried up, therefore prices will return to more "normal" prices of two years ago, probably within two/three years (I used to think longer, but not any more - recent drops have been surprising and pleasing!).

Finally, unless everyone has been mewing to the hilt, many home could take a big drop and the owners would still "make money" on the price. There isn't the same negative equity barrier (for most) that would exist if the boom had been protracted over 5-10 years. Therefore, I don't think the prices will be particularly sticky, which in turn will get the market back to normal (a good thing!) relatively quickly.

I don't mean to come across religious or anything.

But - maybe the Truth has not been revealed to him and he shall die a HPC sinner.

some shall be saved but most will be burned

thanks all

Subby - you are quite the protagonist aren't you - i kinda enjoy hearing people's plans for buying and laughing to myself.

People i care about - i tell them straight - everyone else can go to hell.

Arguing over HPC is like arguing over a Meteorite - will it hit us or will it not?
It doesn't matter - just don't be in its flight path and you'll hear it hit the ground, shake the earth - but you won't be blasted to smithereens.

ok he lives in Preston england, so propertynews.com doesn't cover it.

I'm not 100% sure how to go about finding reductions there, is there a UK based site that does the same thing as the propertynews.com one to look for reductions?

how do I find a previous priced house compared to it's new reduced price???

if someone could explain....or faster still, rather than typing it all out, do a quick search for a couple of houses reduced in preston and post up the links....

would be MUCHO appreciated....I'll post up his replies to make you all laugh

Try propertysnake - you will need a postcode.

ha ha

read this....."Well seen as I paid £122K (and put a deposit down) and they're selling at £145k I wouldn't have thought so.

I'm a mortgage adviser mate so I see many valuations on properties every week and they just aren't coming down as much as people are suggesting. New build should be avoided like the plague at the moment IMO but existing houses just aren't being downvalued that much (if at all) in my area...."


so he's a VI then ha ha no wonder he's "trying" to put up a fight

btw...my maths and links to media reports of the crash, is hitting him like a tyson 1-2...he's stunned and I'm going in for the kill

thanks Doc

http://propertysnake.co.uk/site/postcode/pr1

pages of them

From reading the main forum, rightmove and property bee show prices changes and most are heading south!

Aye that property-bee plugin tool http://www.property-bee.com/ when used with the Firefox web browser and applied through the rightmove website http://www.rightmove.co.uk/ is totally awesome. Halifax have all their NI property listed on the rightmove site and you can see all the changes to pricing as a historical record for each property. Absolutely awesome. I've even requested that the developer work on a tool that will run over the propertynews.com site and capture the same info. The good news is that he's looking into it as he's just got the property-bee tool working on the daft website http://www.daft.ie/

Give property-bee (with firefox) a whirl - you'll love it! It's on a par with the http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com/ reports. Power to the people and all that!

Subby, test your football mates resolve with a £500 wager that proprty prices will be down 10% YOY from now.
The spring bounce is just around the corner but I think it'll bounce like a donkeys turd, then it'll be all down hill.
IMHO I think a 10% drop is pretty realistic for this year