Q4 2007 report now available to download here:
http://www.bankofireland.co.uk/pdf/BoI_Hou...dex_Q4_2007.pdf
Also ...
Q3 2007: http://www.nihe.gov.uk/completed/priceindexq3.pdf
Q2 2007: http://www.nihe.gov.uk/completed/priceindexq2.pdf
Q1 2007: http://www.nihe.gov.uk/completed/housepriceindex.pdf
Full Version: Northern Ireland Quarterly House Price Index Rreports
QUOTE (paul65 @ Feb 20 2008, 11:45 AM) 
Q4 2007 report now available to download here:
http://www.bankofireland.co.uk/pdf/BoI_Hou...dex_Q4_2007.pdf
http://www.bankofireland.co.uk/pdf/BoI_Hou...dex_Q4_2007.pdf
Also note the interesting final 4 paragraphs from Alan Bridle at BOI. I think a lot of us here at the HPC NI forum have been reading the market exactly as the "experts" see it too.
QUOTE
2008 - further correction?
With average house prices falling back from the lofty peaks of 2007,
the biggest question now is how much further they need to retreat
to restore momentum in the market. The affordability gap for
first time buyers is narrowing although the early indications from
2008 suggest a market that is still stricken with relative inactivity,
uncertainty and nervousness over valuations.
Price expectations are still being pegged back as prospective buyers
hold off in anticipation of better value later, in a context of unsold
properties and as some developers and agents attempt to reawaken
interest with a mixture of discounts and non-price based incentives.
An added dimension to the market this year will be the hangover
from the 2007 “credit crunch” and the lingering impact on the
availability and price of mortgages for some borrowers.
Against this backdrop, it is likely we will be reporting a further
deflation in our next report covering the period to the end of March
2008. In the history of the Quarterly Northern Ireland House Price
Survey spanning over two decades, consecutive quarters of negative
growth in the index would be an extremely rare occurrence. (last
time 1992/93). Such an outcome would mean that the region is in
almost uncharted territory, technically speaking, a housing recession.
In the surreal world of house price forecasts, there is some consensus
that average prices could fall by 5 to 10% for the full year 2008. An
interesting benchmark in a market, similar but not identical and a bit
further advanced in the property cycle, might be the Irish Republic.
In 2007 the average price drop was recorded at c 7%. While opinions
vary, there will be common agreement that in a post-boom scenario,
it will be preferable if the adjustment process in Northern Ireland
continues to take an orderly path. While an obvious negative for the
construction sector in the short term, a slowdown in the rate of new
builds in 2008 may ultimately be price supportive for the market.
A steeper dive in prices would have unwelcome consequences for
household confidence and the wider regional economy.
Alan Bridle
Head of Economics & Research
Business Banking UK
Bank of Ireland
T: 028 9043 3519 E: research@boini.com
With average house prices falling back from the lofty peaks of 2007,
the biggest question now is how much further they need to retreat
to restore momentum in the market. The affordability gap for
first time buyers is narrowing although the early indications from
2008 suggest a market that is still stricken with relative inactivity,
uncertainty and nervousness over valuations.
Price expectations are still being pegged back as prospective buyers
hold off in anticipation of better value later, in a context of unsold
properties and as some developers and agents attempt to reawaken
interest with a mixture of discounts and non-price based incentives.
An added dimension to the market this year will be the hangover
from the 2007 “credit crunch” and the lingering impact on the
availability and price of mortgages for some borrowers.
Against this backdrop, it is likely we will be reporting a further
deflation in our next report covering the period to the end of March
2008. In the history of the Quarterly Northern Ireland House Price
Survey spanning over two decades, consecutive quarters of negative
growth in the index would be an extremely rare occurrence. (last
time 1992/93). Such an outcome would mean that the region is in
almost uncharted territory, technically speaking, a housing recession.
In the surreal world of house price forecasts, there is some consensus
that average prices could fall by 5 to 10% for the full year 2008. An
interesting benchmark in a market, similar but not identical and a bit
further advanced in the property cycle, might be the Irish Republic.
In 2007 the average price drop was recorded at c 7%. While opinions
vary, there will be common agreement that in a post-boom scenario,
it will be preferable if the adjustment process in Northern Ireland
continues to take an orderly path. While an obvious negative for the
construction sector in the short term, a slowdown in the rate of new
builds in 2008 may ultimately be price supportive for the market.
A steeper dive in prices would have unwelcome consequences for
household confidence and the wider regional economy.
Alan Bridle
Head of Economics & Research
Business Banking UK
Bank of Ireland
T: 028 9043 3519 E: research@boini.com
It's interesting, reading these reports that they did not spot these trends last year - and appear almost suprised with what many people here had been expecting.
3 months time will be interesting reading.
3 months time will be interesting reading.
Hi Paul,
loving the graph of NI hpi especially the 'spike':
Click to view attachment
Compares favourably with one of my earlier sketches, illustrating my theories on crash symmetry:
Click to view attachment
The rollercoasters just gathering pace
loving the graph of NI hpi especially the 'spike':
Click to view attachment
Compares favourably with one of my earlier sketches, illustrating my theories on crash symmetry:
Click to view attachment
The rollercoasters just gathering pace
QUOTE (paul65 @ Feb 20 2008, 12:06 PM)
Also note the interesting final 4 paragraphs from Alan Bridle at BOI. I think a lot of us here at the HPC NI forum have been reading the market exactly as the "experts" see it too.
"In the surreal world of house price forecasts, there is some consensus
that average prices could fall by 5 to 10% for the full year 2008. An
interesting benchmark in a market, similar but not identical and a bit
further advanced in the property cycle, might be the Irish Republic.
In 2007 the average price drop was recorded at c 7%. While opinions
vary, there will be common agreement that in a post-boom scenario,
it will be preferable if the adjustment process in Northern Ireland
continues to take an orderly path. While an obvious negative for the
construction sector in the short term, a slowdown in the rate of new
builds in 2008 may ultimately be price supportive for the market.
A steeper dive in prices would have unwelcome consequences for
household confidence and the wider regional economy."
I have a lot of respect for Alan Bridle, he has an honest and open style and this has been reflected in many of his reports.
However, I don't know whether a 'perfect world' orderly correction scenario is possible based on the incline that got us here. Similarly, a lot of priced out FTBs may take a different view.
Basically, the question is, can 40-50% rises in a year (or approx. 80-90% since early 2005) become semi-sustainable i.e. lead to a slower correction where the economy suffers less than a 'steeper dive' scenario?
We shall all see in the coming months.
There is of course arguments to be made for taking the 'medicine' sooner and moving towards a more sustainable housing market sooner.
If there is a 'perfect-world' solution that can restore sustainability to house prices and that is the least damaging to the wider economy bring it on; however, market forces tend to have their own agenda.
edit - typo
Hang on a second... is this report saying that Northern Ireland house prices have just fallen by £20,000 in just 3 months? 
wow!!
wow!!
QUOTE (Belfast Boy @ Feb 21 2008, 08:48 AM)
Hang on a second... is this report saying that Northern Ireland house prices have just fallen by £20,000 in just 3 months?
wow!!
wow!!
It is not clear to me if this is a drop of 20k in the past quarter or since the top of the "spike" in Spring/Summer '07.
I do actually feel however that the report is painting the best picture that it possibly can in fairly dire market conditions.
The devil is always in the detail with these things and often with what is not said too.
Lead report contributor Alan Bridle from the Bank of Ireland states in the report introduction and assessment that
"Given the poor sentiment and moribund state of the market in recent months, some may be surprised that the correction in prices was not of a larger magnitude but with the apartment sector carrying a much greater weight in this survey (44% of transactions), the influence on overall price trends is particularly significant."
So what that says to me is that if you strip out the 2 in 5 NI property sales during this past quarter that were inflated priced apartments - city centre presumably and most likely purchased by buy to let investors and not first time buyers, that the market figures generally are actually much worse across the whole of NI than first imagined. Would I be right therefore in concluding that consequently the drop in property prices is accelerating at a pace that none of us could have predicted? A pace akin to the "take off" in prices over the last 2 years? ie. leading to a short sharp correction that others have alluded to on this forum?
In my mind the 44% of apartment property sales in this report skew the data disproportionately and artificially prop up and soften the blow of this report making reading easier to stomach ? Next Quarters report will definitely be interesting reading as I have a feeling that apartment sales will have fallen away by then.
I personally pity anyone who purchased a apartment (city centre or otherwise) in the last 2 quarters of 2007.
QUOTE (paul65 @ Feb 21 2008, 09:00 AM)
It is not clear to me if this is a drop of 20k in the past quarter or since the top of the "spike" in Spring/Summer '07.
I do actually feel however that the report is painting the best picture that it possibly can in fairly dire market conditions.
The devil is always in the detail with these things and often with what is not said too.
Lead report contributor Alan Bridle from the Bank of Ireland states in the report introduction and assessment that
"Given the poor sentiment and moribund state of the market in recent months, some may be surprised that the correction in prices was not of a larger magnitude but with the apartment sector carrying a much greater weight in this survey (44% of transactions), the influence on overall price trends is particularly significant."
So what that says to me is that if you strip out the 2 in 5 NI property sales during this past quarter that were inflated priced apartments - city centre presumably and most likely purchased by buy to let investors and not first time buyers, that the market figures generally are actually much worse across the whole of NI than first imagined. Would I be right therefore in concluding that consequently the drop in property prices is accelerating at a pace that none of us could have predicted? A pace akin to the "take off" in prices over the last 2 years? ie. leading to a short sharp correction that others have alluded to on this forum?
In my mind the 44% of apartment property sales in this report skew the data disproportionately and artificially prop up and soften the blow of this report making reading easier to stomach ? Next Quarters report will definitely be interesting reading as I have a feeling that apartment sales will have fallen away by then.
I personally pity anyone who purchased a apartment (city centre or otherwise) in the last 2 quarters of 2007.
I do actually feel however that the report is painting the best picture that it possibly can in fairly dire market conditions.
The devil is always in the detail with these things and often with what is not said too.
Lead report contributor Alan Bridle from the Bank of Ireland states in the report introduction and assessment that
"Given the poor sentiment and moribund state of the market in recent months, some may be surprised that the correction in prices was not of a larger magnitude but with the apartment sector carrying a much greater weight in this survey (44% of transactions), the influence on overall price trends is particularly significant."
So what that says to me is that if you strip out the 2 in 5 NI property sales during this past quarter that were inflated priced apartments - city centre presumably and most likely purchased by buy to let investors and not first time buyers, that the market figures generally are actually much worse across the whole of NI than first imagined. Would I be right therefore in concluding that consequently the drop in property prices is accelerating at a pace that none of us could have predicted? A pace akin to the "take off" in prices over the last 2 years? ie. leading to a short sharp correction that others have alluded to on this forum?
In my mind the 44% of apartment property sales in this report skew the data disproportionately and artificially prop up and soften the blow of this report making reading easier to stomach ? Next Quarters report will definitely be interesting reading as I have a feeling that apartment sales will have fallen away by then.
I personally pity anyone who purchased a apartment (city centre or otherwise) in the last 2 quarters of 2007.
I would tend to agree - and there are also a number of apartments coming up for sale on estatemate where you can watch exactly what is added daily. I think people are taking fright and trying to exit this particular type of property with no hope of getting their premium costs back.
This article in the Times alludes to carnage for apartments
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3406269.ece
QUOTE (paul65 @ Feb 21 2008, 09:00 AM)
I do actually feel however that the report is painting the best picture that it possibly can in fairly dire market conditions.
Yes, I agree. Credit to him for acknowledging what's possible with a certain degree of openness given his position and authority.
As you say the devil is in the detail. When it comes to other commentators, especially in the NI Media, I always 'read between the lines' with regard to their reporting of the housing market.
Credit where credits due - I find little spin in the Irish News reporting of the above and that fellow (anyone?) who wrote in the Belfast Telegraph a while back seemed to do so with out the usual pasted quotes from nEAl tRAMPER.
paul65... from the Q3 2007 report that you linked to above:
From the Q42007 report:
So that is exactly a fall of £19,418 in 3 months
wow!
Wonder will it continue like that? That would be a fall of £77,672 by Christmas
QUOTE
The overall average price of residential property in Northern Ireland for the third quarter of 2007 shows yet another rise to £250,586
From the Q42007 report:
QUOTE
The overall average price of residential property in Northern Ireland for the fourth quarter of 2007 is £231,168
So that is exactly a fall of £19,418 in 3 months
wow!
Wonder will it continue like that? That would be a fall of £77,672 by Christmas
QUOTE (Belfast Boy @ Feb 21 2008, 01:42 PM)
paul65... from the Q3 2007 report that you linked to above:
From the Q42007 report:
So that is exactly a fall of £19,418 in 3 months
wow!
Wonder will it continue like that? That would be a fall of £77,672 by Christmas
From the Q42007 report:
So that is exactly a fall of £19,418 in 3 months
wow!
Wonder will it continue like that? That would be a fall of £77,672 by Christmas
Well spotted BB. So houses were losing £215 in value per day sitting on the market over the past quarter. Holy Moly! That is frightening. What was the calculation on the way up in the last 2 mad years? Anyone remember? Even though I don't own any properties I wouldn't like to be in the position where I'm forced into selling right right now with so much supply out there and the threat of repossession/bankruptcy and -ve equity looming ever closer Truly frightening - no wonder NI's auction rooms are full to bursting point with properties to shift.
QUOTE (paul65 @ Feb 21 2008, 02:09 PM)
Well spotted BB. So houses were losing £215 in value per day sitting on the market over the past quarter. Holy Moly! That is frightening. What was the calculation on the way up in the last 2 mad years? Anyone remember? Even though I don't own any properties I wouldn't like to be in the position where I'm forced into selling right right now with so much supply out there and the threat of repossession/bankruptcy and -ve equity looming ever closer Truly frightening - no wonder NI's auction rooms are full to bursting point with properties to shift.
Yep so according to those reports house prices are falling by £6,500 a month.
And as we know; the crash has only started and it will last several years 
QUOTE (Belfast Boy @ Feb 21 2008, 03:22 PM)
Yep so according to those reports house prices are falling by £6,500 a month. And as we know; the crash has only started and it will last several years
And as we know; the crash has only started and it will last several years Well, people have to live somewhere, you know... and there's suuuuch a shortage of land in NI!
QUOTE (Sogy @ Feb 21 2008, 05:13 PM)
Well, people have to live somewhere, you know... and there's suuuuch a shortage of land in NI!
That argument always cracks me up! I have a friend in England who bought about a year ago, despite me giving friendly advice to hold off (I think his fiance wears the trousers tbh!). He received a Maths degree from Cambridge and has always been a clever bloke. He then said there wouldn't be a crash as there is a shortage of housing in England. I lost the will to argue the toss!
I get the feeling there will be a glut of empty property on the market soon enough, when all those "investors" sitting on empty BTL properties get rid of them. Only then will people realise that the demand isn't what it was and there has been massive oversupply to this spurious demand. I really do fail to see how educated people cannot see that, unless A, houses are knocked down or B, there is a massive increase in population, that there will be enough houses to go around.
QUOTE (Traktion @ Feb 22 2008, 02:03 PM)
That argument always cracks me up! I have a friend in England who bought about a year ago, despite me giving friendly advice to hold off (I think his fiance wears the trousers tbh!). He received a Maths degree from Cambridge and has always been a clever bloke. He then said there wouldn't be a crash as there is a shortage of housing in England. I lost the will to argue the toss!
I get the feeling there will be a glut of empty property on the market soon enough, when all those "investors" sitting on empty BTL properties get rid of them. Only then will people realise that the demand isn't what it was and there has been massive oversupply to this spurious demand. I really do fail to see how educated people cannot see that, unless A, houses are knocked down or B, there is a massive increase in population, that there will be enough houses to go around.
I get the feeling there will be a glut of empty property on the market soon enough, when all those "investors" sitting on empty BTL properties get rid of them. Only then will people realise that the demand isn't what it was and there has been massive oversupply to this spurious demand. I really do fail to see how educated people cannot see that, unless A, houses are knocked down or B, there is a massive increase in population, that there will be enough houses to go around.
Off topic Traktion I see the cottage on the way to Downpatrick is still up for sale. Wonder what its on at now.
QUOTE (Bosco @ Feb 20 2008, 01:16 PM)
Hi Paul,
loving the graph of NI hpi especially the 'spike':
Click to view attachment
The rollercoasters just gathering pace
loving the graph of NI hpi especially the 'spike':
Click to view attachment
The rollercoasters just gathering pace
Interestingly compared to Bosco's graph of NI HPI that he posted above the graph from the same report on the propertynews.com website is slightly different. Now I don't know if it is a freudian slip, a genuine mistake or an attempt to mislead buyers/sellers but the graph on the recent Q4 House Price index has been altered on the PN.com website (as it cuts off all data points after 2005). See http://www.propertynews.com/boiSurvey/house_price_index.html and you'll immediately spot that the graph ends at 2005. Everything looks rosy in the garden if you are a potential seller looking at this information.
I have written an email to PN.com today to ask them to update this so we'll see how long it takes them to change the graph so that it falls in line with the graph from the published report which shows the full set of data to the end of Q4 2007 as per page 10 of the actual complete report http://www.propertynews.com/boiSurvey/bank...land_report.pdf</a>
Just goes to prove there are lies, damn lies and statistics!
QUOTE (doccyboy @ Feb 22 2008, 02:33 PM)
Off topic Traktion I see the cottage on the way to Downpatrick is still up for sale. Wonder what its on at now.
haha, yeah I noticed it's been up and down a few more times since we discussed it a while back. I'm wondering if it keeps getting knocked off (lorries?) or blown off (freak wind vortexes?!
) as it's been up/down so many times! Either way, it doesn't look like it's selling!Is it on property news? I just did a search under 300k and couldn't spot it from the picture. I tell you what though, Downpatrick has a *lot* of properties listed, with a lot of new sites too. You can almost smell the fear...
QUOTE (paul65 @ Feb 25 2008, 10:13 AM)
Interestingly compared to Bosco's graph of NI HPI that he posted above the graph from the same report on the propertynews.com website is slightly different. Now I don't know if it is a freudian slip, a genuine mistake or an attempt to mislead buyers/sellers but the graph on the recent Q4 House Price index has been altered on the PN.com website (as it cuts off all data points after 2005). See http://www.propertynews.com/boiSurvey/house_price_index.html and you'll immediately spot that the graph ends at 2005. Everything looks rosy in the garden if you are a potential seller looking at this information.
I have written an email to PN.com today to ask them to update this so we'll see how long it takes them to change the graph so that it falls in line with the graph from the published report which shows the full set of data to the end of Q4 2007 as per page 10 of the actual complete report http://www.propertynews.com/boiSurvey/bank...land_report.pdf</a>
Just goes to prove there are lies, damn lies and statistics!
I have written an email to PN.com today to ask them to update this so we'll see how long it takes them to change the graph so that it falls in line with the graph from the published report which shows the full set of data to the end of Q4 2007 as per page 10 of the actual complete report http://www.propertynews.com/boiSurvey/bank...land_report.pdf</a>
Just goes to prove there are lies, damn lies and statistics!
That's very sneaky of them! Let us know their reply!
QUOTE (Traktion @ Feb 25 2008, 10:41 AM)
haha, yeah I noticed it's been up and down a few more times since we discussed it a while back. I'm wondering if it keeps getting knocked off (lorries?) or blown off (freak wind vortexes?! ) as it's been up/down so many times! Either way, it doesn't look like it's selling!
Is it on property news? I just did a search under 300k and couldn't spot it from the picture. I tell you what though, Downpatrick has a *lot* of properties listed, with a lot of new sites too. You can almost smell the fear...
) as it's been up/down so many times! Either way, it doesn't look like it's selling!Is it on property news? I just did a search under 300k and couldn't spot it from the picture. I tell you what though, Downpatrick has a *lot* of properties listed, with a lot of new sites too. You can almost smell the fear...
Here it is on the EA website
http://www.peterfitzpatrick.co.uk/property/352
Did you see how many for sale in the Downpatrick area = about 600.
QUOTE (doccyboy @ Feb 25 2008, 11:18 AM)
Here it is on the EA website
http://www.peterfitzpatrick.co.uk/property/352
Did you see how many for sale in the Downpatrick area = about 600.
http://www.peterfitzpatrick.co.uk/property/352
Did you see how many for sale in the Downpatrick area = about 600.
Ah, well found! £210k seems a bit much for something *right* on the edge of the road. I wonder whether the price has changed much? I may bookmark it and keep an eye on it our of morbid curiosity!
You have to love the mortgage calculated too... £1284.94 per month?! My rent is a 3rd of that, I have an extra bed room (albeit, a semi) and I don't step out of my door way onto a main road. Madness!
Re Downpatrick numbers, it is rather shocking. I'm sure when I last checked Downpatrick it wasn't half as high as that. My office is in Downpatrick (Down Business Park), but I'm not looking to buy here though, so I've not really been keeping track.
QUOTE (paul65 @ Feb 25 2008, 10:13 AM)
Interestingly compared to Bosco's graph of NI HPI that he posted above the graph from the same report on the propertynews.com website is slightly different. Now I don't know if it is a freudian slip, a genuine mistake or an attempt to mislead buyers/sellers but the graph on the recent Q4 House Price index has been altered on the PN.com website (as it cuts off all data points after 2005). See http://www.propertynews.com/boiSurvey/house_price_index.html and you'll immediately spot that the graph ends at 2005. Everything looks rosy in the garden if you are a potential seller looking at this information.
I have written an email to PN.com today to ask them to update this so we'll see how long it takes them to change the graph so that it falls in line with the graph from the published report which shows the full set of data to the end of Q4 2007 as per page 10 of the actual complete report http://www.propertynews.com/boiSurvey/bank...land_report.pdf</a>
Just goes to prove there are lies, damn lies and statistics!
I have written an email to PN.com today to ask them to update this so we'll see how long it takes them to change the graph so that it falls in line with the graph from the published report which shows the full set of data to the end of Q4 2007 as per page 10 of the actual complete report http://www.propertynews.com/boiSurvey/bank...land_report.pdf</a>
Just goes to prove there are lies, damn lies and statistics!
The proper graph has new been added to the PN.com website a full 2 days after the request: http://www.propertynews.com/boiSurvey/house_price_index.html
Their response was simply
QUOTE
Hi there,
Thank you very much for the update on the Graph and all apologies from the associates at fault. We have rectified the problem. Regards The PropertyNews Team
Thank you very much for the update on the Graph and all apologies from the associates at fault. We have rectified the problem. Regards The PropertyNews Team
I bet they typed that response through gritted teeth! 
Nicely done!
Nicely done!
QUOTE (Traktion @ Feb 27 2008, 12:51 PM)
I bet they typed that response through gritted teeth!
Nicely done!
Nicely done!
I am sure you are right Traktion.
Isn't PropertyNews a pretty average website.
Not terrible - but certainly not first rate.
Not terrible - but certainly not first rate.
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