Sorry I think this one needs it's own thread. And after the crap on here the last few days I need to let rip.

There is a fair bit of spin in the article. So lets look at the important part.

News Letter - House prices down by average of £20k - click here.

As we have discussed many times this house price crash will take 3-5 years before prices will stabilise where they should be. So can you afford to lose £20k (or more) every year, for the next 3 years or more?





So that's a 20% drop from the £251,000 peak, if you want to sell! Let me repeat that a 20% drop in nominal prices already!

If it continues at this rate my predictions of a greater than 50% real term fall, is looking very, very possible.

We are now in a falling market. The only question is; how far will it fall and how long will it take?

I don't know exactly what the drops will be or how long it will take. Anyone who says they know are lieing. But this is my prediction... 50% real term falls in the next 3-5 years.

Forget supply, forget demand, forget interest rates. They are nolonger relevant to our housing market bubble.

Relevant issues are; the American subprime mortgage problems spreading to the UK, 1.4 TRILLION pounds of personal debt in the UK, mortgage resets, repossessions, world wide credit crunch, the American recession spreading to the UK.


Edit: changed billion to TRILLION

would have to agree with your analysis there, maybe not 50% decreases but imo 33-37% drops ...but it's only my opinion too

Yep 50% alot in one year- we have had this discussion before. I would love it to 50% down even as a house owner, so I could move on (pending difficult sale), but 10-20% more likely over the next year. Don't underestimate the dirty VI
tactics to slow things down a bit!


Check graph for our progress so far, still think there is going to be a temporary blip with stick prices, bull trap after moderate declines, possible around easter-summer. But after that we are in freefall due motgage resets etc.



Click to view attachment

Click to view attachment

I'd buy at 50% of today's/last year's prices.
I have the warchest to do so too - As said by someone - the property market NI is "in a transition period."

The fundamentals for NI are positive - except for the crazy prices -

Just think about this - imagine you take out a 25 year mortgage to buy a house this year. Next year all the houses around you are £20,000 less. And the next year all the houses around you are £20,000 less. And the following year all the houses around you are £20,000 less. So in 3 years you are sitting in a house with a mortgage which is £60,000 larger than your new neighbour's. You have to pay for that £60,000 for the next 22 years of your life. That's roughly £100 a week, £400 a month and nearly £5000 a year that you have to pay for 22 years.

Now what if house prices actually fall harder or for longer? All we know at this stage is that they have fallen by £20,000 in the last 3 months

Who in their right mind would buy a house this year?