I found this site just over one year ago and found it interesting as I had a view that properties in my area were considerably overvalued.

However in that year prices have increased by, depending on which index you use, by between 15% and 25%.

Just as well I didn't STR based on what I've read on here I guess.

will you come back in 2009 and give us your view then.

Your area is quite unique. I STR in August and prices in my area have dropped since and IMO the people who did STR last year beat the rush. Try STR now and you will then add to the justification we chose last year. You may find the 20pc increase you see is actually the amount they will have to drop in order to get punters through the door.

It`s never too late. You may get last years price but leave it much longer and ........ well, It`s all oppinion !!

Good for you (honestly)

Like yourself I've been reading this site for little under a year now. The problem we have is that those with above average IQs know things are not good in the housing sector and ,IMO, we are intentionally kept in the dark. So we are left to trawling internet forums to try and glean any pearls of wisdom. There are a few on here that will swear by their newborn child that the world is about to implode but, equally stupid are those who have their snouts firmly stuck in the debt trough thinking it will never empty.

I guess you just laugh at what you find funny, look into what you find interesting and make the most educated decision you can based on the things you know.

I've just finished watching an Allsops auction via livelink, trust me prices are not going up.

Damo

I'd definitely agree that prices are not going up (at best).

The main thing I've taken out of this site in the last 12 months though is that the majority of people who try and bet against the value of an asset that appreciates over the long term are going to come unstuck.

Even the home page of this site indicates that even if you make a purchase at the worst possible time, you will recoup your investment in real terms within 10 years.

What index are you basing this on and what is the area? I can't think of any area where you would get 15% - 25% higher now, in Jan 2008, than you would have in Jan 2007 on a like for like basis. However, in many you would have got that differential between Summer 2006 and Summer 2007. Prime Central London for instance peaked around last Summer pre credit crunch from what I have seen. However, the land registry is so slow to update, sales that would have agreed at Summer 2007 prices are still going on to it. Most of the time when I look at sites like houseprices.co.uk, the data has a lag of at least 3 months and up to 6 months.

So examples please! Show us an area on houseprices.co.uk with sold prices for Jan 2007 and in 3 or so months, when sold prices for this Jan go on we can have a look at the difference.

I thought I'd have a look at what you were saying a year ago (when you considered STR):


Well.. apart from the additional 50 basis points in between now and then!


Aren't we?


Haven't the figures for GDP been revised down recently?


BUMP! I'd like your answer to this. You live in Richmond don't you, Harris?

Happy HPC anniversary harris

Where are these 15-20% rises ??? Think you may find that anyone who bought last year wouldn't even get there money back now if they needed to sell , unless the've built extension or renovated it .

Your profile is that of a bear , but i've always thought of you as a awkward neither

utterly disagree with you.

once physical depreciation and capital opportunity taken into account, people buying at peaks face costs that massively reduce lifetime wealth compared to buying when cheaper. you can avoid doing the maths if you really want. and you even rest your argument on the assumption that the peaks will be regained - are you as ignorant of demographics as you are of maths?

Would have to be some extension. I think on the way down people just look at area, overall size of the house, proximity to neighbours, and proximity to problems, pubs, clubs etc, and in a down spiral buyers are just going to hang on and on, they have nothing to lose. What would have seemed a good buy on the way up to secure a place on the ladder will seem totaly different on the way down, every little problem and bad point will be noticed until the price reduces to a level that is realistic.I would say that the time to get out of property is already passed by a good few months, what happens next is not going to be pleasant for people who bought in recently.

thing is, that (adjusting the year accordingly) is what you all said in 2007. and 2006, and 2005, and 2004. I'm sure you'll all be right eventually, but as it was said in an article a while back, 'you can't make the same prediction for the next year for 10 years then claim you're right when it eventually comes true'. Or something like that.

incidentally - here in brighton we've seen a >15% rise in mean sale prices over the last year





http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...&lastyear=1

medians tell a different story (detatched houses are so rare that the price jumps all over the place, a 3 month average would probably give more reliable figures)

I'm wondering if we might have to concede this point...

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...&lastyear=1

Nov 2006 Nov 2007 Change
Detached £1,344,444 £972,400 -28%
Semi £570,654 £917,890 +61%
Terraced £468,320 £529,474 +13%
Flat £310,635 £397,951 +28%
All £449,937 £572,410 +27%

Semi +61% RISE!!!! Not likely my son!!! Its a bad methodology for the figures.....

Look at the volumes... the figures are high, coz the numbers sold are low...


Nov 2006 Oct 2007 Change
Detached 9 6 -33%
Semi 49 31 -37%
Terraced 89 64 -28%
Flat 112 88 -21%
This works the same with the average asking price... the higher priced properties have still not sold and the lower price ones have. Therefore it looks like a boom...

I defy anyone to sell the house for 15% REAL CASH over last year (At this time) outside of London. Impossible i.m.h.o.

TB

how can you have a bad methodology for the figures. these are real selling prices from the land regestry. Obviously the data set is small, so liable to large changes, if you have a bigger area, the figures are more reliable.

less houses selling is not a driver for house prices rising, and is not indication in any way of the linkage you're proposing. Lower volumes are indicitive of a housing slowdown, in the same way prices are - but they do not in themselves affect house prices. Low properties available, can drive demand and price up, but graphs from other sources show this generally isnt the case - property is still available, just selling a little slower.
real price rises of >15% outside london? try cambridge

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...&lastyear=1

or oxford

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/house_prices_...&lastyear=1

both way up there

Yes the problem with sitting on the fence is that is is difficult to know the best time to buy a property.

But then it's the same with most assets. I've just bought a load of Lloyds TSB shares for my pension. They were cheaper than they were last year. Will they be cheaper or more expensive next year? Nobody can say. Will they be worth more in the longer term? Probably.

A lot of people go on this site trying to be reassured that the crash is going to/not going to happen. The fact is nobody knows for sure. We all know a little bit of the big picture, but nobody knows the whole picture.

I think the prediction is that house prices will, at some point, revert to near or below a 3.5x earning multiple so you can make that prediction every day and if it comes to pass your prediction was proved correct.

of course 3.5x isn't set in stone, the economic governing this figure can change just as the 20x PE ratio for shares can change for some sound economic reasons.

Well I joined in July.
There ain't no rise round our way since then.
The good thing about houses is that they don't fall too quickly and they don't rise too quickly afterwards either.
Even if you miss the first year of recovery you are better off than if you buy now.
Banks are withdrawing the dodgier deals fast. Once they stop lending recklessly, the prices come down.
It's a done deal.
YoY -ve from haliwide before MY first anniversary. And I bet my previous house on it.*

*Well actually when i placed the bet I did't put in a timescale.

indeed - but we haven't had any sound economic reasons for this to change for houses, imho

Waiting 1/8th of your life for an investment to turn a profit is a mighty long time!

and that's not a profit, it's simply minimising quite a big loss. In real terms, being same real-terms value after a decade or more is AWFUL performance, so nothing to shout about at all.

It seems to hold for UK houses but in Europe they seem to support higher ratios perhaps due to lower long term interest rates. I think rent to price is also an important figure with 144 months often given as the benchmark.