How to sell in 2008
Why are we producing a special guide this year in particular?
The property market is currently in a state of confusion with some predicting more doom and gloom while others talk of a recovery in the Spring. It is a very confusing time for sellers of property – we want to put the record straight and suggest that this may be a very positive time to sell.

Why has the market slowed down so dramatically?
The property market in Northern Ireland started to slow down at the lower end of the market as early as March 2007. This was before the Northern Rock crisis and before any impact from interest rate hikes. The true cause of the slow down was that prices had increased too much over the past couple of years and it proved unsustainable. It has now become an affordability issue as the investors who drove the prices to the highest level have now all but deserted the market and are unlikely to come back until they can see a potential return on their investment (higher rentals or capital growth). Therefore the recovery will be instigated by first time buyers who at present are waiting in the sidelines and are only tempted to purchase now by the right house at the right price.

What is the right price?
From our own experience over the past few months, the right price is in the region of 15% - 20% below the peak value last year for a standard terrace house. For semi-detached and detached houses this figure may not be as great since the price gap between a terrace and a semi-detached house has closed over the past few years.

Have many vendors reduced or are reducing their asking prices?
Very few. Most vendors have not reduced their asking prices to any great extent. Many Estate Agents are advising their clients that the market will pick up in the Spring and to hold out.

Will the market pick up in the Spring?
In our opinion, no. We believe that the market recovery will be a much longer process than this.

What is the key to moving in 2008?
There cannot be a buyers and sellers market at the same time. If you accept that it is a buyers market then you must price your house to sell. The key to moving is selling your own house. If you can attract a buyer then you will be in a very strong position as a buyer yourself. In most cases you will only sell if you are priced substantially less than you would have been last year. Don’t be tempted to base the value of your house by checking asking prices of similar properties on the internet – they are irrelevant unless they are sold and even then you need to know at what price. In a similar vein, if your house is already on the market without success do not assume that by dropping the price you will immediately attract interest as you need to know how much to reduce it by.

If you agree the sale of your own house 20% below last years expectations, how can you be sure of saving 20% on your purchase?
The market has totally changed from a sellers market to a buyers market. There are many vendors who would be prepared to consider much lower offers for their properties. The secret is to make offers but be prepared to negotiate a fair price. Pooler Estate Agents are happy to carry out negotiations on your behalf or just suggest offers that you should make. Many of our clients who have sold recently have secured purchases at a similar saving.

Will house prices fall more than this in the future?
General predictions for Northern Ireland prices in 2008 are not as much as the 15 - 20% falls mentioned previously. What we can tell you is that at the levels we are suggesting there is demand for terrace houses in East Belfast. This would imply that if other properties including houses further up the scale came down by this amount, demand would be such that prices would level out.

Does that mean that now is a good time to sell?
Yes we believe that the first few months of 2008 are a good time to sell and buy. As selling is the key to moving we see no point in waiting unless there are other reasons why it would suit you to sell later in the year.

If you have a willingness to move, the right Estate Agents advice and a little luck then you should be able to make a successful move and be no worse off had you made the move last year in an easier market.

How to buy in 2008

Estate Agents usually provide free valuations for potential sellers to give them an idea of what to expect prior to putting their house on the market. With the property market in a state of confusion and a huge variance in asking prices, Pooler Estate Agents have decided to offer potential buyers a free valuation service in order that they can offer on properties with confidence.

Why are Pooler Estate Agents offering this service now?
We feel that there is currently and impasse with many potential buyers put off by high asking prices when in reality the vendors of these properties would be delighted with an offer even if it is well below the current asking price.

Surely Estate Agents act on behalf of the seller not the buyer
Yes, the vendor of a property on the market with ourselves is our client and their interests are our main concern. However, these free valuations are primarily for people who are looking at property with other Estate Agents where we can take an objective and totally unbiased view. It is always our intention to negotiate a fair price in todays market and even if the property is on our books we feel that we can act as an intermediary in a professional yet open manner.
How much are house prices falling?
The slow down in the market has in fact been happening since around March 2007 so we have had plenty of time to understand the situation. We have been gradually reducing prices where vendors have been happy to do so, since last summer and have discovered a very buoyant market but at around 15% - 20% less than peak values of the last couple of years. The theory is that our clients have achieved less than they initially hoped but make up for this in their next purchase.

Will house prices fall more than this in the future?
General predictions for Northern Ireland prices in 2008 are not as much as the 15 - 20% falls mentioned previously. What we can tell you is that at the levels we are suggesting there is demand for terrace houses in East Belfast. This would imply that if other properties including houses further up the scale came down by this amount, demand would be such that prices would level out.

Is it a good time to buy now?
In our opinion, this is a good time to buy and we feel that there are excellent opportunities available. The problem is, what is good value? How do you know if someone has already dropped their asking price. There is no use in just offering 15% - 20% less on everything - you risk antagonising the seller and dare we say the Estate Agent!

Why ask Pooler Estate Agents?
Pooler Estate Agents have earned a reputation over the years for being open and honest. We have always been forthright in our views of the property market and simply want to help match eager sellers of property to enthusiastic buyers.
How can I get a free valuation of a property that I am interested in buying?
There is no need for us to inspect the house, we can either talk to you in person at our Cregagh or Ballyhackamore offices, talk to you on the telephone or reply to your e mail requests. We are familiar with most house types in East Belfast and we are able to check details on the internet. We will need the address of the property and your contact details.

http://www.poolerestateagents.com/



Obviously, not a bearfest, but some sound advice from Mr. Pooler, i.e. the game is up and cut your prices

Yes, the message is "now's a good time to sell", as 15% to 20% reduction may be enough to sell (aka introduces your house to a "bouyoant market")

[Does it, Would Be Seller?]

When everyone reduces their asking prices by this much, this may not be enough - there's not enough enthusiastic buyers at that level for all properties to be sold, and the time to sell will get tougher.

In other words, Mr. Pooler is proposing that the smarter sellers should not chase the market down from the coming spring onwards. A very good idea indeed!

2007 was mostly a very quiet year for house sales and the low flow of completing sales in the second half of the year is now reflected in these small percentage 'drops'. The figures reflect a only meagre number of sales, possibly completed under some duress, therefore they do not present an accurate view of the state of the market. The reality is that many potential buyers have been inactive recently for one reason or another

...since early summer 2007 the market has been taking an extended holiday after a marathon race.

...we will have to wait for an increased volume of sales before we can analyse the market clearly

Yes, the message is "now's a good time to sell", as 15% to 20% reduction may be enough to sell (aka introduces your house to a "bouyoant market")

[Does it, Would Be Seller?]

When everyone reduces their asking prices by this much, this may not be enough - there's not enough enthusiastic buyers at that level for all properties to be sold, and the time to sell will get tougher.

In other words, Mr. Pooler is proposing that the smarter sellers should not chase the market down from the coming spring onwards. A very good idea indeed!

The reality is that many potential buyers have been inactive recently for one reason or another, and existing householders have been unable to move on as a result.

No offers yet, all asking to be kept informed of what others do, and another viewing booked today for weekend.

Very good! Stick to it, pick the buyer who looks most honest, and you will sell.

Perhaps the majority of home owners may wait, but obviously many developers aren't judging by the number of new builds listed on Trees Don't Grow To The Sky.

There are a lot of developers who gave up on being builders and became property speculators. We have three terraced houses which have been nearly finished and on the market overpriced for, I think, near to two years now. I suspect that builder will go bust - he has been funding them all that time and I don't think their value ever came near his price pitch.

The big builders have been around a long time, they know what happened last time and they have strategies to deal with it. Over the next three or four years expect to hear a lot of people whining about how the can't sell their house because the builders are undercutting them (and remember new houses have a price premium, just like cars).

The thing is if you are a big builder, your business consists of build, sell, do it again, not of sitting on your hands waiting for your fantasy price. So in the end Barratts and Persimmons etc will cut prices however much they need to to keep themselves trading. In the end, the stock market will live with them making reduced profits or losses, but it won't tolerate them effectively ceasing trading.

(Ed, apologies for butting in on your NI forum)

There are a lot of developers who gave up on being builders and became property speculators. We have three terraced houses which have been nearly finished and on the market overpriced for, I think, near to two years now. I suspect that builder will go bust - he has been funding them all that time and I don't think their value ever came near his price pitch.

The big builders have been around a long time, they know what happened last time and they have strategies to deal with it. Over the next three or four years expect to hear a lot of people whining about how the can't sell their house because the builders are undercutting them (and remember new houses have a price premium, just like cars).

The thing is if you are a big builder, your business consists of build, sell, do it again, not of sitting on your hands waiting for your fantasy price. So in the end Barratts and Persimmons etc will cut prices however much they need to to keep themselves trading. In the end, the stock market will live with them making reduced profits or losses, but it won't tolerate them effectively ceasing trading.

(Ed, apologies for butting in on your NI forum)

All are welcome here microbe - glad to hear from you. Very valid point you make. So does it look like the bigger builders will capitulate before the smaller ones here. I've seen a house on my road home which has been up for sale for nearly a year and it just gradually goes up in price - its gone sale agreed several times but never completed. Built by a small builder its price at 350k for a bog standard bungalow is a joke.

Interest rates cut today, 7th February 2008 07/02/2008
Belfast Telegraph report: Interest rate cut 08/02/2008
BBC News report: Mortgage lenders match rate cut 08/02/2008

What point is he trying to get across?

Interest rates cut today, 7th February 2008 07/02/2008
Belfast Telegraph report: Interest rate cut 08/02/2008
BBC News report: Mortgage lenders match rate cut 08/02/2008

University of Ulster survey reports a house price increase of 26.4% in 2007 but the house price average has come down from 251,000 (summer of 2007) to 231,000 (winter of 2007)
Average prices have fallen back from the lofty peaks of 2007. The affordability gap for first-time buyers is narrowing but the early indications from 2008 suggest a market that is still stricken with relative inactivity, uncertainty and nervousness over valuations, Alan Bridle, Head of Research at Bank of Ireland Northern Ireland --- Speaking from our own experience this is a comment that seems to ring true as a fair description of the current market. A sharp drop in demand has resulted in a corresponding drop in the numbers of transactions for Summer, Autumn and Winter 2007. Buyer activity has been so depleted that some vendors have had to accept lower offers than they might previously have been happy with, this is reflected in the surveys. So far, the first part of 2008 also seems to be quiet for transactions though there does seem to be more interest coming from potential buyers than in the last months of 2007. The local news headline today that the average house price is down by a drop of less than 10 percent from 251,000 (summer of 2007) to 231,000 (end of 2007) is no surprise when you look at how different selling conditions were in the second half of 2007 compared with previous years. The fact is that in spite of the relative inactivity in quarters 3 & 4, prices actually increased in 2007 by 26.4% according to the University of Ulster. Buyer confidence, uncertainty and nervousness stopped the market in its tracks in 2007; buyer confidence is what crashed suddenly in 2007. Affordability for first time buyers is not a problem that can be alleviated easily and should be addressed by the Northern Ireland Assembly. Given the level of house prices in this region, wherever possible advantages should be given to first time buyers and one of the items that the government could address is the issue of axing the tax on first time buyers. Stamp duty starts at just 125,001 but with an average house price being 231,000 this means that every FTB is being taxed 1 percent on their purchase of 125,001 or over. Its all very well to say that bringing asking prices down will attract buyers back and get the market moving again, but many vendors do not need to sell their properties now; many are not in danger of negative equity, many are happy just to wait; they wont drop their prices by any great degree. Understandably, the large numbers of properties on the market and the endless gossip about house prices might not give that impression. If you are a potential first time buyer, 2008 just might be a good time to look at property because there are properties available where the vendor really does want to/need to sell and might be keen to talk to you.

The most recent properties on our books are as follows:

FOR SALE

24 McCaughan Park, BT6, Spacious 3 bed detached home with stunning views, £315,000
10 Orangefield Avenue, BT5, Extended 3 bed semi with 2 receptions, £250,000
20 Glensharragh Avenue, BT6, Spacious 3 bed semi at excellent price, £229,950
4 Meadowview, Lisburn, Recently built 4 bed townhouse in desirable location, £299,000
50 Cumber Park, Drumaness, Stunning 3 bed semi finished to high standard, £208,000
1 Chesham Parade, BT6, Modern well finished 2 bed semi with garden, £185,000
1 Blenhiem Drive, BT6, Excellent 3 bed semi finished to highest standard, £265,000
11 Archvale Crescent, Newtownabbey, Spacious 5 bed detached family home, £299,950
3 Invernook Park, BT4, 3 Bed semi finished to a show home standard, £250,000
19 Earl Haig Park, BT6, Extended 2 bed semi with large conservatory & garden, £230,000
49 Beechgrove Park, BT6, Large 3 bed semi with stunning views, £325,000
14 Sandhill Parade, BT5, 3 Bed semi finished to the highest standards, £285,000
42 The Courtyard, BT5, Modern 2 bed apartment with parking, £195,000
83 Knockwood Park, BT5, Spacious 3 bed mid terrace with rear garden, £169,950
37 Victoria Drive, BT4, 3 bed semi detached with rear garden, £195,000
18 Knockhill Park, BT5, Spacious 4 bed semi with original features, £365,000
TO LET


Further details can be found on our website www.visionpropertyagents.co.uk

If you have any queries please contact us.

Regards

Jeff

Jeff McFerran BSc (Hons)
Partner
Vision Property Agents

8 Grand Parade, Belfast, BT5 5HH
(028) 9070 2999
www.visionpropertyagents.co.uk

Fixed Fee Sale £950 - Extended Opening Hours To 7:30pm Mon - Thur and 2:30pm Saturdays - Contact 07791 529919 Out Of Hours

See things differently - we do

Templeton Robinson Market Update...
22 Feb '08

Property market ‘stabilising’ as people buy and sell out of need not profit claims leading estate agent!


As evidence points towards a steady resurgence in the province’s housing market a top estate agent has claimed people are now buying and selling ‘out of need’ and no longer ‘in pursuit of unreasonable profit’. Keith Mitchell, a partner with Templeton Robinson, said last night he believed the market is “returning to normal” and to the “stable position” it enjoyed at the end of 2006.
His comments come in the wake of a number of reports into Northern Ireland’s housing trends which show prices dropped during the last quarter of 2007

“While prices in many areas have reduced, from last year’s artificial values, it is important to remember that overall people who have been in their property longer than the second half of 2007 have still made significant gains and property remains a sound long term investment,” said Mr Mitchell.
While accepting the importance of retrospective prices surveys Mr Mitchell stressed: “What buyers and sellers really want to know is the position of the market now and how it is likely to fare as we go forward.”
He added: “Our view is that the current environment is similar to that of the end of 2006 which was a healthy and very strong one, when people were buying and selling for need. This is what we have returned to in the first few weeks of this year.
“At the moment there is great range of choice and sellers are more likely to negotiate. Furthermore people trading up will find that any drop in value in their own property will be transferred proportionately to the one they are buying. So in many ways it is a good time to move.
“With the traditional spring market just around the corner, all five Templeton Robinson branches are geared up and ready to offer realistic and professional advice to help get first time buyers and homeowners moving in 2008. We think we will see further uplift in activity over the next few weeks.”

Hello, good afternoon

Please click on the link below to access our 'new to the market' properties and price changes

www.poolerestateagents.com

£20,000 off the average value of a house in Northern Ireland over the past three months - another £20,000 drop to follow this year! - can this be right?

Yes it is - but it has already happened in the terrace market in East Belfast. Houses that we are selling are already very definitely down by £40,000 (eg: from £200,000 to £160,000).

The issue is that predicting a further £20,000 average drop has led to people assuming that the market will fall even further. Obviously we cannot state categorically that the market will not deflate further but our opinion based on what is happening in our area is that the prices at the lower end of the market are stabilizing.
Manna Grove Soon we will be offering for sale a fabulous four bedroom extended semi in the Orby area of Castlereagh. This is certainly the best house that we have encountered in the area - a massive two storey extension to the rear and side housing stunning open plan kitchen, living and dining with sunroom off and a fabulous master bedroom suite upstairs with en suite and walk in wardrobe. The rear and side gardens are extensive. Any interest, give our Cregagh office a call 028 9045 3319. Priced at around £400,000, you may gasp at the price but save your gasps for internal viewing!!

Best regards

Christopher Pooler
Pooler Estate Agents
028 9047 1777
christopher@poolerestateagents.

Yes! The turning point in the market is at hand!

Expect a healthy 60% YOY growth in 2008. You know, people are queuing up to buy, whatever the price...

Steady - you'll give people here the wrong idea!

Funnily enough - I was looking at 2/3 bed mid-terraces in East Belfast, Cregagh area back in early 2005 and Pooler (Watson) at the time featured prominently in my search. As I recall the market was starting to get 'excited' but it was still possible to buy many of the above type houses for sub £100k (some needing a 'bit of work' etc.).

This is a 'yardstick' of my own and I wonder whether I will see examples of the above type property around the £100k mark in the future. I use the word 'wonder' because I do expect that certain types of property and certain areas will be more robust to falling values (or the converse, certain areas / property types will be hit harder). This is why it is important to do your homework now and get a 'feel' for the property values within your target area / type and measure general price changes within that market.

BTW, does this location feature on any FTBs target area here?

Stanley Best Estate Agents - click here.

Have a look at the 2 "reasonably priced" 3 bed semi's on the main page.

£187,000 for a 3 bed semi in Cookstown? That is far from reasonably priced!

And £189,500 for a 3 bed semi in Coagh (middle of nowhere) is just taking the piss

Average looking properties and as we know average incomes in Northern Ireland are around £21,000.

What happens to house prices when banks require a 10% deposit, bank statements to proved you saved the deposit yourself and will only lend 3.5 times income? That is what I required to buy a house in 1993. Thanks to the credit crunch - our housing bubble is going to go bang!

10% deposit? I hear 25 and 30% being quoted (Nationwide), which must have the potential to kill the market.

10% deposit? I hear 25 and 30% being quoted (Nationwide), which must have the potential to kill the market.