I can't believe they moved it!

Of course it should, half the banks going bust has nothing todo with house prices

I'm surprised, considering that all the risks presented earlier in that thread are now very much becoming reality. RBS sent a research note out to clients today suggesting that ratings downgrades for the monoline insurers could begin next week, starting with Security Capital Assurance.

I suspect it was moved because it was felt that the Gold and Credit Meltdown threads cover such matters, and it was in danger of becoming another permanent feature on the first page.

Moving to 'off-topic' rather than 'financial' seems extremely harsh though. Maybe it wasn't apocalyptic enough - any post these days that doesn't proclaim TEOTWAWKI receives a collective yawn. The name of the game at present is to outdo the other guy with the extremity of your predictions.

[Edit:typo]

Angry too. That thread has been talking about the failure of the monolines, which directly impacts on the availability of credit and hence mortgages.

Look regarding a house price crash the factors are simply:
i) buyer sentiment.
ii) seller sentiment.
iii) availability of mortgage credit.

What else? That thread was directly relevant to iii), especially so in the last few days with Merrill announcing they were totally discounting ACA Capital's insurance value.

Also it had 127 replies.

Please move it back.

Optobear

Ambac have just been downgraded by fitch.

(i think)

Of course it should be in the main forum! One of the most important pieces of news for a few weeks.

When the derivatives meltdown and gold have a place, the monoliners should have one too since they're extremely important to watch right now.

Either it was a duplicate post (other topics around on similar subjects I think) or a mistake by the mods.

OMG, are you sure?

Here we go!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

i am now

Hi guys - is this the new Ambac thread?


For continuity - this is the link to the end of the old thread.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...0241&st=120

Nice one gfromls.

Here's the WSJ link

Neither has gold or Iran but they are both main forum staples.

MBIA Staggered By Moodys Decision To Downgrade Its Ratings....

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/S...20News/1005030/

Oops, I accidentally voted no. Meant to vote yes. What were you other 4 people who voted no thinking? The AMBAC downgrade is huge news. With the downgrade, billions more of securitized subprime debt is going to flood onto the market, driving prices down and accelerating the financial crisis.

The main forums have far too much off topic posts cluttering them up already.

It will be on the front page of the main forum for about six hours any way.

But it wasn't off-topic. It happened to be the thread where the most significant news of the past few days affecting the housing market was being discussed.

Things only clutter up the main forum if people keep posting to them, so important news like collapsing of one of the main planks of the world insurance derivatives kept coming to the top (the AMBAC, MBIA thread), while minor and irrelevant things like Polish workers being better at working in hotels fell back to page 11 within 7 days of first posting (and despite 87 posts!). see
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...st&p=923332

So the system works, there is no real need to clear stuff like this off, if people aren't interested then it falls quickly to the back of the main forum.

So please mods, put it back. In fact, perhaps even consider a working rule that means that things with >100 replies should always be left in the main forum.

It does matter because the search tool only seems to hunt through the main forum.

Here, here.

To think this was off topic is like...well, I don't know really. It was on topic.

Please bring it back.

Best to use the "All Forums" option.

cant believe your all so busy fighting that no ones posted this:


thats just one of them! theres also MBIA to come and how knows how many others!(!!!!!!!)

and you guys we're saying this was a slow motion car wreck, things seem to be moving fairly fast to me.

I'm guessing most of the $556 billion mentioned above is in municipal bonds.

What's the current difference in value between a AAA rated municipal bond and a AA rated one? Is there an index online (similar to the ABX index)?

Looking at the ABX indexes, Ambac insured mortgage backed securities look to have instantly lost between 11 and 31 cents on the dollar depending on when they were originated. (Someone correct me if I've got this wrong - I almost certainly have). Does anyone have any numbers on how much in mortgage backed securities Ambac is insuring?

These losses will only grow if/when there is a fire sale.

Everyone seems to be mentioning the banks, but what about the insurers themselves (Red Star, Lloyds etc.)

Could these be affected, and if so, what happens to those who have policies?

It's not just about losses, it's about the ability of municipals to raise future funding if the bond insurers go down. These events are going to increase the cost of financing capital projects, and not only in the US - the monolines also insure bonds for UK PFI projects.

Cities may find it difficult to issue more bonds if they can't find the insurance to back them

Why the Ambac and Mbia thread was moved offline is a mystery. It has far reaching consequences on housing and was as a result of the bubble created by home loans amongst other things. Mods please put it up again.

It seems CGNAO was right after all.

Monday will be a black black day for the markets now.

Isn't this where Warren Buffet is going to clean up? Although if Berkshire are the only game in town insurance costs are going to rocket.

What are the chances of other entrants into this market?

Thats Ukplc double fecked then.

It does seem to be moving at a fair old lick, which is a bit pathetic. All we have really had is a few US citizens default on their mortgages and the whole financial edifice comes unglued.
It's as if we werel dependant upon an hourly paid Chester J Bixby turniing up to work at the sawmill in Nowhereville Louisiana every morning, and when he caught flu on wednesday the money men ran screaming out of their offices with their hands flapping above their heads.

We've not even started with the proper defaults yet, Masters of the Universe my ****.

This is very much on topic, and should not have been moved.

I'm willing to give anyone here 10-1 odds that US markets will not fall on Monday.

Unchanged I reckon

That's either because the clever money is not in the market anymore anyway, or because they slash rates.

The availability of mortgages is, in my opinion, fundamentally the most important issue. The situation with financing existing mortgage debt defines the future mortgage market. The current financing of mortgage debt is massively dependent upon insurance in the form of CDS (or equivalents by another name).

The bond insurers are critical to UK house prices... and claiming otherwise makes a farce of seriously considering the price of houses.

It's MLK day -- a holiday...

I'll put a pound against you, if you agree - and we can find a way to insure against default (LOL!)

Maybe I am becoming paranoid, but this was a poll, right?

Where have all the results gone?

Last time I looked, it was about 86% for restoring the origianl thread to the main forum on about 55 votes.

I`m surprised this thread was not moved to the about hpc.co.uk Forum.

You are indeed honoured.

After Thursday's rant on CNBC, Jim Cramer's alternative plan for saving the system. The cynic in me says this is what Cramer was really warming up to a couple of days ago:

Game Plan: Feds Need to Buy Mortgage Insurers

"I woud not be surprised if the Dow Jones average lost a couple of thousand points."

Make sure you watch the video.

Mods - please bring back the Ambac thread that was moved 'off topic' yesterday.

It was legendary and well ahead of its time - and definitely not off topic in my opinion.

Judging from the number of new threads appearing on this topic in the last day, it seems to make sense to rationalise them onto that one.

And what happened to the poll???!!!!!

Very funny.

Edit : deleted duplicate post

poll gone, thread moved....
goodbye HPC, moving on to greener fields, was fun while it lasted but I no longer trust you. Will stick around and browse the odd thread for a week or two maybe

There are at least three threads on the same subject. The one that was moved yesterday to the off topic forum, this one complaining about it being moved and another one that was started two days ago that is still on the "main forum about house prices". http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=66023

The AMBAC downgrade could well be the next major turning point (downwards) of the crunch crunch.

Merrill had included $3.1B of 100%l writeoff relating to contracts with ACA (smaller monoline, likely to fold next week).

By the end of the day, the Fitch downgrade of AMBAC marked capitulation. The knock on effects could be enormous, prompting writedowns and firesales all over the place.

Interesting that the press makes little mention today. US market closed on Monday, (Black Tuesday, anyone?)


Combine this development with the article in Moneyweek.

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/40789/credit...se-in-2008.html

"A major worry is that bond, or monoline, insurers are big players in CDS markets. Having guaranteed dodgy subprime-backed bonds they are currently at risk of being downgraded by ratings agencies, which would also lower the quality of bonds they insure; cue forced sales by institutions allowed to hold only top-notch debt and more bank write-downs. Monolines’ balance sheets are shaky and if their guarantees are removed, global losses in CDS markets and the underlying credits they insure could ultimately be $365bn-$425bn, reckons Independent Strategy’s David Roche"

Credit Crunch x 2, by the sound of it.

Also, scary graph attached to my paper copy of the article, showing the exponential growth of CDS (credit default swaps).

Approx
2001 $0.5trillion
.
.
2004 $5 trillion
2005 $12 trillion
2006 $26 trillion
2007 $45 trillion

btw, US GDP was approx $13 trillion in 2006. Talk about active management!


Also, the ABX indexes have turned back down (out of 20 tranches, 12 hit new lows yesterday).


On the other hand, could all be a storm in a teacup.....

guess this is what happens when your saving rate is negative, everything looks quite rosy until eventually you cant pay the bills, and by that point you dont actually own anything in your possession

Dear Mr Moderator.

I think you moved the wrong one. It was the very first to highlight this issue and is a CLASSIC....perhaps it ought to go there.

The new one should have been merged.

The complaint thread would never have happened.

Please.

Original thread moved to "classics" as suggested.

Thankyou