http://atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JA16Dj01.html

"Since British house prices have only just begun to decline, and in London at least must have much further to fall than in any comparable region of the US, mortgage losses in the UK market are still hidden well below the surface, with only the tiniest fraction of the iceberg being visible. After all, even a 50% decline in top-end London house prices would still leave them excessive in terms of income levels - it must be remembered that Tokyo housing lost 70% of its value after 1990."

You can argue with it if you want but that does not and will not change the fact that I was, am and will be totally correct.

What has begun is only just the beginning. The international monetary system is going down and will bring with it the jobs, savings, pensions, investments, property and standard of living of hundreds of millions of people in the developed world.

I URGE you all to take drastic defensive steps NOW, or you'll join the millions and live for the rest of your lives in poverty and regret for not doing so.

Dow 335 down ...

Cramer is now also calling into question the US re-insurance industry on CNBC. Worth a listen.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22706231

In a pit of filth and slime, eating the faeces and corpses of your loved ones. No doubt. And that's just looking on the bright side.

You guys, honestly!

No doubt Cgnao has got it spot on.

There are major problems in USA and they always get exported to the UK.

The FTSE slump tomorrow will make the headlines

I'm not arguing with you!!

Although, I'm still undecided about buying a wadge of Gold.

In fact, I'm toying with the idea of changing my pounds to Canadian Dollars asap, and buying a modest house for cash! Even though I know it's a crap investment, at least we'll have a roof over our heads and nobody can evict us..... comments welcome

I'm betting on a low in the FTSE tomorrow of 5750.

Does that seem reasonable?

Don't panic, don't panic Captin Manwaring.

I'm here and they don't like it up em!!

Them fuzzy wuzzys don't like it up em!!

The old cold steel

Dow Down 15% since late last year. Market says no - Ohh dear

Dow Down 15% since late last year. Market says no - Ohh dear

I got some Gold (perth Mint)..............any other idea's? (Euro-Pacific?)
Mega

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080117/wall_street.html
Some of the major indexes were off more than 2 percent, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which at times fell more than 300 points.

Stocks opened higher but quickly gave up their gains after the Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its survey of regional manufacturing activity registered a negative 20.9 from a revised reading of negative 1.6 in December. The reading came in well short of what Wall Street had been expecting and underscored the seriousness of the economic concerns that have gripped both Wall Street and Washington in recent weeks.

Credit concerns also dogged Wall Street after rating agency Moody's Investors Service placed bond insurer Ambac Assurance Corp. on review for a possible downgrade. That possibility alarmed Wall Street because it would place all bonds insured by Ambac on review as well. Ratings agencies are concerned that bond insurers would be unable to absorb a spike in claims.

The latest economic woes emerged as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, testifying before the House Budget Committee, warned the risks of an economic downturn have grown more pronounced. While his comments largely echoed his previous remarks, he lent support to a notion also backed by the White House on Thursday that an economic stimulus package could help the economy sidestep recession.

Thursday's session, with the latest in a series of triple-digit declines in the Dow, showed much of the rockiness that has taken stocks sharply lower in the short time since the year began. Investors fears of a slowing economy again dominated trading.

"The Philadelphia Fed just announced dreadful numbers," said John O'Donoghue, co-head of equities at Cowen & Co. He said if you look back at Philadelphia Fed data for similar numbers, it takes you back to the 2001 to 2002 recession.

"It's not rocket science -- the economy is slowing dramatically, and it's being reflected in economic reports."


http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/...&id=4171883
NEW YORK (AP) - Treasury prices soared Thursday after a Philadelphia regional manufacturing survey unexpectedly showed a deep and worrisome contraction in factory activity this month.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing index plunged a full 20.9 percent in January, after dropping a much smaller 1.6 percent last month. A median of economists polled by Thomson/IFR had forecast a drop this month of just 1.3. None of the analysts expected a larger fall than 7 precent.

"This data point screams recession," said T.J. Marta, fixed income analyst at RBC Capital Markets. "Although data has been grinding lower, but this is the first true recessionary indication."

"Dow Dow, Deeper on Dow..." Status Quo. Thankyou

"I'm betting on a low in the FTSE tomorrow of 5750."

"Does that seem reasonable"


Not only reasonable - but likely - I think we might get a brief pause at 5616 - it could always have a brief bounce before sliding (even tomorrow) - but that looks unlikely given the wave after wave of bad news hitting the wires minute after minute.

Look at the chart - we've not even hit last years low yest :-) - This ponys got a loooooog way to drop yet.

Click to view attachment

Anyone read the Asia Times article? Ultra bear food.....

Excellent - you've really got the hang of this quickly. I think you've got a natural talent there.

Seems the FED are hoping to ride to the rescue with a massive tax rebate for low/middle class earners all round....Just where do the get the money from?

Shame 40% of UK works for Gordo. If it was 25% he could prolly make the same move, saddly after bailing out NR and selling our gold reserves there is nuffin left, sacrafice GBP or join in the meltdown.


On the bright side, if India start out sourcing IT jobs to the UK that would be a good thing, although the massive morts taken out by UK IT staff might take a generation or 2 to pay back. 3 to a bed anyone? and not in the fun sense

cgnao is correct it is only a matter of time now in my opinion too before this collapse moves to critical stage - that critical mass stage can only be a relatively short time away !

So my problem is knowing how best to prepare for this. The question is how best to prepare - and I believe that precious metals in particular Gold now seem to make a lot more sense than I thought up to now. But how do you go about buying the stuff in a way that you definitely can collect it when this financial tsuami finally destroys our fiat currencies?

This is not a loaded question - it is a genuine request for help.

Looks like Cgano was correct. 100% Guaranteed.


Goldmoney and Bullionvault are the only places to use. Buy a bit of silver as well.

If you were really telling us all of this out of the kindness of your heart & not because of your vested interests, you would be warning us all to stock up with food & ammo & not gold!

Come on people really!!!!???....total market collapse & here's how you can avoid it; buy what I'm selling!!!!

Not being funny (but perhaps stoopid) but if you really want bullion, why not just buy direct from the royal mint and cut out the middle man?

They have a website and everything.

As predicted that gold will be the only money of value in the UK, I fear that the Guvvement would want some of that.

Now we all know they sold most of it off, so how would they get it? They could borrow it like they did earlier last century from the US, or they could get it from its only real asset, the Uk population.

Places like Bullion vault would be easy targets for a confiscation.

More likely to tax rather than an outright confiscation. And Bullionvault lets you pick juristication - USA/UK/Zurich. Although I prefer Goldmoney - James Turk seems like a stand up guy (good writer as well). Nothing wrong with getting gold coins either - I just dont like paying the physical premium.....but you've got to get a few coins.....even silver ones......nice to have if nothing else.

not in ******ing switzerland they wouldn't. And that's where mine is, and that is where I would go and join it.

Besides, Bean is clueless about economics otherwise he wouldn't have spent so much in the last 7 years when we should have been putting money aside.
Nor would he have let financial institutions pull this one on us.

In the end he is desperate to keep in power and to him, the only way to do that is to maintain his legacy and that means cutting IRs and hang the whole country as long as he can keep his job.

I hope he does (cut and cut IrR's) - cause if he does gold and silver are in the rocketship to the moon.

What about stocks in oil companies? Seems likely they re only going to be on the up and up.

I bought a few coins. I gather the advantage of coins is that they are easier to sell back, and any gains are not liable to CGT, but this is offset by the premium paid at time of purchase.

Is this correct thinking guys? Or should I buy physical chunks, not coins.

Never underestimate the power of the four horsemen...

TD

UK minted coins are exempt of CGT. So if price goes up you are quid's in and tax free.....For now...

I have heard it said that the way to deal with recession is not via lowering of interest rates, but by implementing fiscal policy to avert the recession.

I suspect this might be what Bernanke and the FED, together with the White House actually do. I am afraid to say, I am not entirely sold on the reduce IR's theory yet, although undoubtedly the markets will call and call for it..

It is possible they might do something tomorrow. I heard this ecvening on Bloomberg TV that the chief monkey (Bush) will be speaking tomorrow. It will be an interesting outcome if the FED does not reduce rates (as the market is hoping) before Jan30th, but instead the administration relaxes fiscal policy.

Can I ask ,and please excuse the very basic language, but I understand the smaller home loan banks in the US have a first lien on the larger banks . Does the UK have a similar setup?
I don't understand it fully (or can't express myself well) but if so does this mean that the FSCS deposit gurantee isn't worth anything.

DOW has pretty much got it out of it's system.

Probably see volatility for some time, but I'd see 13,000 before meltdown.

FED and ECB have poured 'load's a money' on the banks and it's not been passed on to overly indepted 'Consumers'....

So plan is now to give consumers a direct bail out through immediate tax rebates.

So will consumers go and spunk that money on new LCD HD TV's or will they use it to pay the interest on thier credit card loans/Pay the mortgague?

It's all down to %'ages FED are betting they all go out on a consumer spending spree... But if it is all used up to pay back 'recently adjusted' loans/morts?

Given the gloomy news world wide, one would expect even a very dozey consumer to take the balance directly off the credit card or mortgague.....Result being those depts can no longer be sold on as investments, coz no one is buying risky dept. Thus yet more deflation.

Key is.... No one is buying debt as an investment! That will not change any time soon and will feed off itself in the reverse direction as it has on the upside when everyone borrowed to the hilt and went on spending.

Saw Bernanke talking about this today, seemed generally to want the tax cuts to be given to anyone that would spend it in a year or any kind of scheme that would generate jobs. He looked very worn down.

errrr, sorry to be a spelling nazi but it's debt.

Nutz edits don't feed through to quotes, then again thats prolly a good thing, especially when it comes to the 'Black Mon/Tue/Wed' threads.

How come gold has fallen in vaue then? Down 3.5% from this months peak.

That's Barnanke & co's operation Lockstep.

More to do with a fall in demand for physical gold from India at present

Dow supported at 12,200 and then again at 12,000. After that then down to 11,100

FTSE at 5,800 and then 5,600

At the start of the last crash the FTSE fell 14% before starting it's 8 year long climbs to it's high

How did the PPT let the DOW fall from 14,000 back to 12,200? Asleep on the job!

A fall in demand does not manifest itself by well timed large drops in the tick-by-tick trading of Gold. It really is not trading down, it is being pushed down. If you don't believe me, watch bullionvault tick by tick for a while. You'll see it clear as day.

Anyone else tired of hearing this bull$hit?

If no one wants to issue credit and no one wants to buy credit derivatives - guess what? We will have asset deflation.

I've been long gold for a long time, but it's an asset like any other not a solution to any number of possible crisis scenarios FFS! It moves higher on fears of inflation, and right now it's a trendy market.

If the world economy slows significantly, the gold buying will stop.

IF interest rates go through the floor, gold WILL go ballistic!

Simple.

Edit: Look at a chart of gold against all asset market over the past five years and tell me what they all have in common.

Why does no one get this? Confiscation is not necessary under a fiat system. You just print the money you need to buy the gold, and the you buy it. It's then on the central bank's balance sheet, and some more currency is outstanding. Confiscation - utter nonsense. Much easier to confiscate through inflation. After all, they're doing this for decades already.

Nikkei down nearly 3% already.

Saw some guy on CNN over the New Year saying this would be japan's year. It's down 15% since then.

Personally I think there is some tinkering room yet, it's time to start the engines and scramble some B52's, Bernanke can drop a few billion dollars and reinflate to delay the stock slide and day of reckoning. This cash injection will probably mean 2.5 - 3% US interest rates and a 0.5% drop at least at the next FOMC.

granted this will be bad news for the dollar and inflation but this is an election year and bernanke's thesis was on inflating out of depressions.

The Fed is very inexperienced member group and right now Bernanke is the wrong man at the helm - the B52 drops are of course the wrong course of action, protection is the key and we should all know by now how to protect ourselves.

Expect the DOW to hit new nominal highs soon.

I forgot about them.


Does anyone think my plan to buy a little house for cash before the pound tanks completely is a good one.... or is it totally stupid?

If it is in Japan you might be on to something. If you talking about the UK I would advise you against it.

Too simple. You seem only be able to perceive gold as inflation hedge. Absence of counterparty risk and it's traditional role as 'independent' world currency don't cross your mind.

Poverty suits me fine mate, not really interest in all that consumerist cr*p they're selling anyway.

No, not too simple. It could be anything. Your perception of PM is too complicated.

The problem is, that you do not understand that gold is not just anything. There are many good reasons why all truly free and connected markets have always chosen gold (and silver) as money.