5958.40

down 67.20

for a % drop of 1.12 %

ouch....that's well over 200 point drop in last 2 days trading

recession fears anyone????

the US fed has announced that the USA economy is now or is about to go in to recession

no fluffing about....

It's in recession, which is termed after two months 0% growth. Sachs and Goldman have admitted to this now. Bear forecast for UK plc by Sachs on the FTSE, 2008 is -18% retraction. Welcome back to the 2003 and 2004 lows. One mans loss is anothers gain.

Yep - it has all well and truly kicked off. No way back now - it's going to be like watching a car crash in slow motion that is gradually speeding up.....

A guy at work is asking my opinion on this

I am not a financial advisor

Though my opinion is that during the summers subprime/credit crunch/Northern Rock crisis people were moving their money out of property. Alot of people were moving money within the stock market itself. Changing their investments from builders, financials, retail - into energy, commodities and agri stocks. This helped support the stock market. Other people were looked for something else - other than property - which was making them good returns. So this money drove the stock market up, even though the fundamentals were not good. The word recession is being mentioned in the press every day. They are beginning to get nervious. They can read in the press about the deepening banking crisis, spreading property crisis and the credit crunch affecting consumer confidence and the retail sector. People are probably going to feel safer with their money in a bank account and not having to worry about the stock market performance. Lets just hope there are no more bank runs

The ironic thing is that it's easy to look like some sort of guru simply by stating what has been obvious for at least the last couple of years; That the whole house price boom (and economy) was set to come crashing down, and crashing down badly.

Yet until the media told them to be pessimistic, the average drone out there couldn't bring themselves to believe that things could be anything other way than endless economic good times and rocketing prices.

Now, younger people who hadn't lived through a recession and HPC as an adult and had only ever know easy times I could maybe understand but even people who should have known better were happy to delude themselves.


Suddenly, the reality sets in and you're a prophet for predicting it all I always ask people what way did they think it was going to end? Most people it seems, didn't bother to think. Welcome to the media state.

That's Uber Bear stuff on acid. Are you on drugs or sniffing deodorants? Understand your point but a good bit over the top IMO. If that's your imagination of the world then fair enough. As I say all relevant organisations [to boring to name] down graded global growth to 4%. Although the US economy is in deep Sh*t, the export market is picking up momentum. These are the first building blocks to a sustainable future. The drag of job cuts in retail, financials, leisure and construction will continue to compound problems for a while though. America will turn the worm in 2008, never underestimate the yanks for productivity and competitiveness etc. The Tiger economies of Asia have learn’t from the underestimation of America in the 1980’s. A big mistake it was for them too - South Korea, Japan. The American economy and others needed a forest fire approach to cut the rut. So I like recessions for that reason. BRIC will never equal the value of US purchasing power, so the size of this contingent and the sheer growth forecast of 10% are helping alleviate problems for Asia and Europe to an extent. As long as the ECB does not raise rates, Germany and France can survive. Sterling problems are caused completely from the NR crisis and the BoE's inability to handle the situation. The malaise that led to the downfall and the shaky business model didn't help.

The world as I say will keep spinning, millions of pounds, euro, dollars will be made by some, lost by others, tomorrow. The glass is still half full as always for me. Btw I'm consolidating cash for the equity sales in 12 months, markets in sentiment always overshoot in bull and bear situations.

FTSE 100 down 323.50 today (5.48%)

Ouch, this is going to hurt! Might see about a bit more gold!

More likely they will feel safer with their money in gold! The Banks and banking system is thoroughly shambolic and plagued with corrupt lending practices (sub prime lending), the banks insurers are also in deep do do.
What you are seeing is the disorderly disintegration of our monetary system and currency (along with the other world currencies).

Watch this space - they have their backs against the wall and no seeming solution to these problems!

MD what have you been sniffing - same stuff as Brown cause you just can't see the obvious! I mean when will you accede the Banks are stuffed - the markets started to realise it today thats why stocks went down.. Look up MBIA and you might get some illumination and perhaps when you look at your glass again - it might just be empty?

Markets are primarily adjusting to

(i) the amount of credit being pushed out from Hedge fund intervention etc.

(ii) USA along with UK, steering towards mild recession.

If you think it's more protracted give me your information. On point one, are you aware of the size of the Abx markets in the last 5 years and how this has been allowed to grow? Like any balloon with far to much air, some has to be allowed escape, same with the credit markets. The s/market is reacting to this and finding its level that has some way to travel. Many FTSE stocks are below NAV excluding banks. You have some without substantiation one liners , greatly influenced by cgnao of which you seem somehow in awe with, coupled with other articles you are reading [where, I do not know]. Certainly it's doing your head in.

Will the market be in trouble 2008 - Yes? Will the market but in trouble 2009- probably yes for the first half. Will there be a serious killing to be made afterwards, yes. Other than not liking shorting the market which is a weird psychology as it’s just the reverse of growth. I take my cues from Buffet and have started to consolidate cash for a buy in, 18 months from now or after 2 months +ive growth. No one can call the bottom. Vicmac - do you work in the markets or is it just an interest for investment etc.

Finally since the 1970’s I have heard every doomsday scenario. All turned out to be utter crap. The nonsense on some of the threads should be saved for evangelicals outside shopping centres across the province.




No I don't accede. This is all typical herd mentality with the markets, both over bullishness on the way up and the opposite overshooting on the way down. Some shares are now yielding 9% with healthy balance sheets, i.e. Telco sector with little debt to asset. Banks are not all stuffed finally. Not all followed the agressive NR model that should not have been allowed by the FSA in the first place. It was doomed to failure when it agreesively launched from being a small regional lender. Have you heard of CDS's, very few have triggered yet - less than 1%.

Very finally – I do not intend to increase weighting in Gold. Look at a similar Commodity sector of Oil and some BP economist screwing the market last Thursday with information or misinformation. Who knows what to believe – All VI stuff though...?

Lets hope not

I caught the end of the report of this on ITV and they said it was the biggest drop since 1930, is that correct?

I believe his source is Alex Jones, infowars.com

It has to be said, things certainly seem to be getting worse and worse. Crashing stockmarkets and the banks essentially running out of money. The "real economy" hasn't seen the start yet. Although with all the jobs being lost in NI, I suspect this is not true.
The problem is there is no getting off the hook, the socialist government is essentially tax and spend, and after 10 years of tax rises and GDP growth somehow we are left with the largest budget deficit on record. Add to this, inflation is out of control despite the utter lies of a CPI of 2.1%. Throw in the enforced tax rises/spending cuts/massive borrowing route out of this on top of a property crash and consumer spending collapse.
The only good news will be laughing at how the average house price got to 250k here

The Beano more like??

I failed to mention the MBIA. What's your point on them being roasted? Of course it's going to be stuffed it underwrote most of the CDO's for Florida, Carolina and is an underwriter for the US military oversea's services [who would want that contract]. So what's the point, compare Marks and Spencer to your theories, it's a UK barometer.

A CDO sector such as this is going to be screwed more than others, its like Lloyds during the bad 1989 storm. But how much credit default swaps have they had to pay up on so far and how much have they got away with in previous years underwriting. These CDS like commercial insurances have excess premiums and other clauses. I'm sure their lawyers will find wriggle room but many deserve a buring for the Abx misery.

Yes - I think we may agree on one thing, which is the extraordinary growth in mo-m3, paper margins and credit markets generally was a disaster. Correct to norm, is now occurring. That’s what's happening but no en-masse bloodbath. Cannes, Capri etc will still be there for enjoyment this summer.




9/11 was a bigger one day fall. The index since start of 2008 has lost 1000 points. The ISEQ has lost 4000 points in last year whilst the FTSE has lost 600 points. Certain commodity and defensive stoxx have shielded the 100 index from a battering. The show’s far from over though.

Well since he asked my opinion, things really seem to have kicked off. His financial advisor has told him to ride out the storm.

I think I'd rather watch the storm from a distance, with my money somewhere safer. But then again, where is your money safe in these uncertain times? Your money is safe in property and banks. So, maybe I should buy a house with a Northern Rock mortgage?

Oh, wait...

Tinned food, frozen veg, rice, dried pasta and bottles of wine! And books...

...and a guitar, trivial pursuit/pictionary, water purifying tablets...

Have you been reading the main forum?

Have many times have I....

I've read nearly every sub bladdy forum by now - this place is like a labyrinth! Recession... armageddon... cash is king... gold is safe... I'm looking forward to not having a mortgage but then you read a load of stuff and think that's just the first step - if you use a bank at all you're screwed! I think a Norn Irn scrip system's the way forward.