Does this topic deserve its own sub forum? Plenty of rumours about some big time developers getting well and truly cooked. Plenty of gossip. Little hard fact at present.
Very, very sensitive topic with some individuals getting heavy on the legal front legal front.




Some hard facts are however starting to appear in the southern press

http://www.thepost.ie/post/pages/p/story.a...9201-qqqx=1.asp

Thanks to “The Property Pin” for this article

http://www.thepropertypin.com/

I see quite a few of the contributors in the N.Ireland forum also contribute to “The Pin”. I have been very impressed with the level of the posts in the N.Ireland forum – it is a little bit intimidating even thinking of trying to start a thread with all professional economists and property experts out there!

I don't think any of us are professional economists or property experts, we've all done a lot of research and have a reasonable understanding of both.

I personally feel that rumors should stay off the forum, I think it's fine mentioning vague details (without names) and then if information is made public through the media then it can be presented here in full.

I think we should avoid another situation like the one that occured with the post you quoted above, I have no interest or intent on spreading harmful lies about anyone or their business. I just want a full up to date account of what is happening in the NI property market.

I must admit Im inclined to agree with you YoungFTB - unless it can be backed up by fact, and evidence, eg a weblink to a news article, I think best to keep solely rumour off the forum. No use potentially damaging rumours flying about this forum, it lowers the quality of it and regard it would be held in. I too prefer to hear genuine news and views.

I think it might be seen as being a bit rich of us to be complaining about those who hyped up the bubble on rumour of 'buy now before it's too late', then ourselves leaving ourselves open to accusations of overhyping the downturn with rumours - it will playout in anycase anyway.

Also, worth considering that if a developer goes bust, parties like the families of employees & subcontractors encounter financial hardship and microeconomy around them suffers too. Not good for kids if their parents split up due to stresses over job losses, though same sentiment obviously also goes for those who bought at top of market and are similarly under stress of debt burden which causes breakups...

Unfortunately there is anecdotal evidence that this is happening already. Many developers have already stopped building on most if not all of their sites and have laid off most if not all of their workers (carpenters, bricklayers, labourers). These ordinary workmen are already feeling the pressure of the current downturn in the market. The developers themselves have been relatively untouched for now. They have surgically reduced their cost base and will retreat from the market until the storms have past. Many of them will have made enough gains in the good times to see them through the lean times. Many of them will have employed sharp lawyers and accountants (that come with their bulging bank accounts and financial advisors) and structured their liability and exposure in a way that will leave them relatively untouched (offshore banking and other tax havens available to the super rich). Some who got particularly greedy and got involved in highly profitable, but highly geared (and therefore risky) land speculation may well come a cropper. Many of them simply did not see it coming. They got lucky with rampant property inflation (although they were largely complicit in driving the market upwards) and haven been unlucky to a certain extent with the American sub-prime scandal and the credit crunch coinciding with a general loss of confidence in the market - a "perfect storm". Some of them believed their own hype and truly thought they were "The Masters of The Universe” or the “Smartest Guys in the Room” (the Enron scandal). Most if not all of these particular individuals were solely interested in self gain. They have never been interested in employing anyone, benefiting the economy or benefiting the community. Unfortunately many builders who were genuine employers decided to follow the money and abandon their core business and employees to join the glorious bandwagon of land speculation and land banking. The developers were more than happy to reap the rewards during the good times. Unfortunately many of them will not be affected by the pain which will be felt by many in the downturn. I have every sympathy with the ordinary man, however I personally will not shed any tears for any of these "Fat Cat" developers. The Christmas Holiday in Sandy Lane and the order for the Bugatti Veyron may have to be placed on hold for this year, however they have enough ill gotten gains stashed in the Cayman Islands or elsewhere to see them through the winter. The average man in the street will be stuck with a massive mortgage and negative equity in the jaws of a potential worldwide recession with the spectre of unemployment. In any case I feel no guilt for my Schadenfreude.

It’s a dirty dirty business. Dou you think that our political representatives should be getting up close and personal with developers?

I see “Junior” has made the news again this morning. I didn’t pick up the fine detail as I was trying to get my breakfast and get out the door for work. It seems that “Junior” raised several planning issues on his friend’s behalf (you know the guy who he forgot he knew) at the St Andrews talks. It all stinks a little bit. Our politicians were holed up in St Andrews discussing the future of our country and “Junior” was busy trying to make a few side deals. Obviously he will insist that he was doing it in the interests of one of his constituents. I doubt he would take much interest if the other party concerned were an average punter.

If you want to take another look at “Junior” squirming under questioning follow the link below to youtube

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=JD7Bbucz8J4

I've been called many things in my time but a professional economist

listen mate I'm a simple lad who lurks and while I understand what they are posting about....I mostly lurk with the odd interjection of a smiley face if I think something has made me laugh

welcome to our own board gonna need to set up a password for this secret section

Subby mate - thanks for the reply. My opening comments relate to some of the stuff that I read on the main forum - one particular ding-dong between Belfast Boy and MD23040 - see the links below. As you can see MD23040 does admit to having a "degree in economics" and owning property in Japan - I think that that should cover both categories - professional economists + property professionals. Both Belfast Boy and MD23040 make good points on multiple angles. Having witnessed the clash of the titans from the sidelines you can see why I was a bit nervous about posting myself!

Junior is a laugh! What a bumbler he is....

LMAO

I only have a Higher National Deploma in Electronics and work in I.T.

I do not own any property, not even a house

AFAIK most people on here are just average people, with average incomes who would like to buy a house at affordabale prices. We do have a couple of estate agents who occasionally write some excellent posts. There is a nice mix of American, Scottish, English and even some people from Northern Ireland who live here and post regularly.

Me and md23040 are always enjoying a good ding-dong. I think he is overly optimistic and he thinks I am overly pessmistic. Though I do like to think that I am being realistic.

Nooooo! BB! you are really the optimist!

I was driving through Antrim town this morning and there is a development (ghastly) on the left hand side as you come into the town from the Hospital. At about 8.30.am there were about 6 brickies 'going like the clappers' with the breeze blocks on a house. I've never seen such quick brick-laying before - made me wonder why !

Get it up before prices collapse completely - coupled with all the sites brickies now being employed on one house!!!

Says it all really!

And I know that site - it is truly awful!

I don’t know what other member’s experiences are but in my area the price of development land seems to have collapsed. At the peak of the boom local development land was fetching £1.1 - £1.5 million per acre depending on the specific site / specific location. Apparently you would now be lucky to find a buyer at £650,000 per acre in the current market (no one seems to have any ready cash). Some of the big boys went on a land grab and bought up as much development land as they could get their hands on that that the bank would lend against. Some were even speculating that a price of £2 million an acre was within grasp. These individuals obviously thought “trees did grow to the sky” and that the growth of the price of developmental was not only linear but exponential (which it was for a very short period). Things came tumbling down when the banks started to disagree with the hype merchants hysterical over-valuation of the land and refused to lend against the price agreed by the developers (although speculators would be a better choice of name for these individuals). The banks had never turned down these guys before and they truly thought that they were in fact superhuman and above the basic laws of economic faced by the ordinary mortal. By this time they could not believe what they were being told. The sky eventually fell in with the disclosure of sub prime lending in the US and the subsequent credit crunch. Apparently these gentlemen have now had the credit tap well and truly turned off by the banks. From what I hear the banks have informed their managers to get the books balanced and deal with some of their over exposure in this particular area. For those on the receiving end, the glory days of cosy relationships on first name terms with the bank managers has become the somewhat cold detached lender / borrower model it should always have been. The big question is what happens next. Will the banks foreclose on these individuals? Where does that leave the banks? I presume if they have been lending against the very high prices at the peak of the boom they will be facing large losses (or write downs – I think this is the correct term). Some of the major US banks have been burned by their reckless lending. Are the Irish banks in for a taste of their very own sub-prime lending?

All replies welcome. Especially from those who understand the banking system and the pressures that are applied to local branch managers to balance their books.

What? Have the German bankers stopped lending inordinate sums of money to Southern Irish peasants-turned-"investors"?
That's a sad piece of news indeed to those Northern Irish, who came to think they are entitled to 50% a year windfalls!

Yes, they will be burned, unless the Gov't bails them out at your expense and mine. Just like the US Gov't is trying to save the homeowners at the expense of those who pay taxes but don't own homes (I am now the opposite, but it still stinks).

I was actually looking through some of Serpico's old posts to find out something he said about plasterers and I ran across this post. Serpico is obviously someone who has been through all of this before up close & personal. What he states about banks and their relationships with customers is what the developers are currently learning to their cost. Some other excellent posts from Serpico in his back catalogue. A man who is not afraid to state his case and who does not mince his words!

In the last week I have heard of several developers/builders in trouble from Portrush, Omagh and Cavan.

Though I imagine this is happening all over now. The banks need their money back.

Can't name names for legal reasons

as father ted once said.....ah go aaan go aaaan

Subby..! That was Mrs Doyle. Ye will ye will ye will.

o.k Belfast Boy

I have read up on the libel laws.

Are there any builder's who you are worried about?

Do you have concerns as to whether their business model may be unsuitable for current market conditions?

I was talking to a friend who was talking to a fellow builder from Omagh,that said a developer/builder business model was overly and seriously flawed in Omagh and went bankrupt, the said developer/builder were building around 170 houses, and the name is B-----ts.
Maybe the Bank wanted their money back.

The friend also said that his cousin bought a house that was value at 250k but she got it value last week before she was to move in and it was valued at 150k, O dear me, what a drop, she is going to move in anyway, (no choice)

I think there's going to be a lot more stories like that one. Poor souls who bought off plan and now have to pay for it with sweat and tears. Its happening in the ROI just now and it will happen up here.

I was speaking to my brother who works in Armagh, apparently, there are rumours of several admissions to St. Lukes hospital (Psychiatric institution) of property developers/speculators suffering from severe stress due to financial embarrassment - allegedly

I heard a similar rumour that some had also taken up residence at Holywell Hospital, allegedly!

Also I head that a farm that I think is in the Lisburn Local development plan area with permission for housing that was sold for 119million is back on the market at 70million, alledgedly!

I know that I am quoting myself again, however I am keen to cross fertilise a couple of threads with some supporting evidence from a bona fide expert raising the issue of cash flow for estate agents and developers

I'd like DeLargy to come in for an off the record chat in here....away from his CairnsBTW sponsored BT restraints

I think you might be mixing your metaphors there subby - its Helen Carson works for BT ------Jamie deLargy is UTV non biased.

DOH!!!!! yeah you're right ....dam that woman HC for messing my head up

Heard a rumour (or statement of fact, depending on your point of view)at work that a builder from Bessbrook has allegedly gone bust. I can't reveal the name but the initials might well be L & McA - allegedly

Hi Vespasian thanks for that. Now I'm no Columbo detective and correct me if I'm wrong but all the new build properties listed here http://www.propertynews.com/results.php?s=37648912&p=1 appear to have come down in asking price recently.

And in true Columbo stlye ...... Just one more thing .... Is this just coincidence or is there a connection?
If there is a connection then I'd recommend keeping a close eye on these property prices to see how they change over time.

Good detective work! Your stock is rising

No doubt appearing in TDGTTS soon!

That may be the only stock that is rising at present given the current economic climate

I predict Beech Meadows and Gortview Park to feature in some future TDGTTS reports.