Last night I saw the gloating UTV correspondant openly mock the Northern Ireland home owner. All along the way this guy has talked the market into crisis using a flagship show on a local TV station, and people are reacting to what he has said. Last week we saw Christopher Pooler do the same in calling for 20% reductions, but as an estate agent who actually expanded his business just before the market went quiet I'd say he is getting pretty desperate for cash, we can see what's driving him. What this Delargy man has got to prove I don't know, but what I do know is, it's the most recent buyers namely the first time buyer who will suffer most because of his continual ridicule on primetime TV. Northern Ireland should be looking forwards, not backwards, the market will do what it does and we don't need Jamie Delargy and pals abusing their influence. The big news story was that prices fell by a massive 6% last November. How many people do you know sold their houses last November? Not very many is the answer, and with so much property swamping the market it couldn't possibly be easy for anyone who needs to sell, so what does that figure represent? Not much is the answer. It's is far, far, far too early to prove acurately what level house prices are sitting at until there is a reasonable throughput of sales, and who knows when that will be! With some homeowners now dropping their house prices, some buyers might now try to buy, but is 'cheap' the way forward? Houses were cheap here for generations but it certainly didn't mean that they all sold quickly and easily! Also if asking prices are cut won't this make people wait to buy for even less? I don't pretend to know, but one sure thing is, with so much equity earnt on their homes, most homeowners won't see negative equity, but the most vulnerable new home owners, last year's first time buyers are not well protected from price falls and those are the people who will be most affected by the effects of the press stories.

welcome to the NI thread.
If you read through the threads on here you will see that no-one on here is glad to see FTBs struggling or losing their homes. Our argument has always been that it was the specuvestors and the BTL brigade with several properties who pushed the prices up to the level thats now here. Government ministers sat on their hands and let it happen because they benefitted from stamp duty. People were sucked in to mewing and flipping and gazumping through greed and stopped being the normal canny people I see every day over here. FTBs should not have taken on more debt than they could afford but if they continue to make their payments negative equity will not affect them unless they are forced to sell. This bubble over here was incredible to watch - it was true Tulip mania. If prices do revert back to normal then many young people who were forced to go elsewhere for a house can return and many will want to stay and build businesses over here. NI has a prosperous future but not on the back of HPI and fancy cars and tvs. Lets get back to basics - looking after each other and not fighting each other. Rant over.

Welcome to the thread - if I may deal with some of your points:

"All along the way this guy has talked the market into crisis using a flagship show on a local TV station, and people are reacting to what he has said." - umm, do you really think that Jamie Delargy has the power to bring down the entire NI housing market on his own?

"Last week we saw Christopher Pooler do the same in calling for 20% reductions, but as an estate agent who actually expanded his business just before the market went quiet I'd say he is getting pretty desperate for cash, we can see what's driving him." - yes, he is trying to keep his business going but he is only reflecting the market, where sales volumes have collapsed and buyers are pulling out of transactions left, right and centre.

"The big news story was that prices fell by a massive 6% last November. How many people do you know sold their houses last November?" - mmm, great news for me as a prospective FTB and many others too! Were you equally annoyed by the NI house boom stories?? Or were they all right by you?

"With some homeowners now dropping their house prices, some buyers might now try to buy, but is 'cheap' the way forward? Houses were cheap here for generations but it certainly didn't mean that they all sold quickly and easily!" - yes, er, because of the Troubles. Just goes to prove that when sentiment in a market is negative, houses can't even be given away! Could happen again in certain areas and with certain property types (e.g. apartments are lilely to become the new slums)...

"Also if asking prices are cut won't this make people wait to buy for even less?" - yes, indeed it will. Everyone I know is expressing this very thought. Happy days for priced-out FTBs.

"the most vulnerable new home owners, last year's first time buyers are not well protected from price falls and those are the people who will be most affected by the effects of the press stories." - agreed, and we do feel sorry for them. Most of us know at least one person who is affected badly by all of this, and we do not take pleasure in their bad luck. But we are also glad that we were wise enough to avoid the madness and will, through careful saving and timing, be able to buy a decent home for a reasonable sum and on a far shorter mortgage than those poor people who bought at the height of the boom.

Anyway, just my tuppence worth. If you don't mind me asking, what is your personal perspective i.e. are you a prospective FTB, owner-occupier, landlord, mortgage-free, other? Thanks.

To paraphrase another poster who put it very nicely:



What do you reckon, mnc, is this fair comment? Do you lay any blame at the doors of media commentators who hyped up the property market and scared FTBs into buying now or never being able to afford anything? Because I do. Nobody forced them to buy, but these property hype peddlers have a lot to answer for. Even when the market was slowing down in the second half of 2007, they ignored the facts and kept talking up the market. Recent FTBs should lay the blame at the door of these vested interests (VIs) and those who haven't bought yet should hold onto their precious deposits and thank their lucky stars.


Edit: by the way, thank you for starting this thread and giving us a chance to refute the VI argument again. I think it will be a very interesting thread.

So what about Helen Carson with the Belfast Telegraph? Not only has she ramped the market but she has continued to do so even when all the evidence suggests otherwise. At least Jamie is basing his arguements on the back of fundamentals such as affordability and availability of credit.

The real villan is the person who convinced the FTB to go ahead, even when there was doubt. There is no point blaming someone who is doing no more than confirming that doubt.

Thanks for all the replys so far!

I agree with you on the state of the market when buying was at it's peak, all manner of money lenders etc were making money out of it, responsibly or not. However I suppose that's the nature of having a free market. What I object to is that the press fanned the flames on the way up and now they're doing it again, and there are many confusing messages out there. What do they care, can't they just report the facts and quote the experts? No they love to preach their own theories for gain of viewing figures, newspaper sales or whatever which is irresponsible because it affects so many people and in particular the weak and the vulnerable young people.

I think first time buyers who bought the house to live in longer term should be OK. If they are in negative equity for a few years it shouldn't be too much of a problem as long as they can afford their repayments of course. Could be a problem if they wanted to move but presumably if they had fixed plans to move they wouldn't have bought in the first place.

That blame does not belong to us or people like Jamie Delargy from UTV.

Right now the people who are sending out the confusing message are people like Helen Carson, the Belfast Telegraph and Co who constantly continue to print misinformation from estate agents and other vested interests that confuse current buyers.

IF all current buyers from NI were armed with all the facts about the market they would not buy for at least a few years until prices came down to a reasonable level because the market is in DEEP trouble, house prices are going to go into free fall so it is very important that we have someone like Jamie Delargy from UTV who is talking some bloody sense about the market based on strong fundamental facts!

To the best of my knowledge UTV & Jamie Delargy are the only media outlet who are trying to report factual info on the NI property market, the rest of them all appear to have vested interests in continuing to talk the market up (Including the BBC)

Btw welcome to the NI forum mnc!

Agreed, right now it's bordering on deliberately malevolent behaviour to be running stories encouraging FTBs to invest. Anyone buying now and stretching themselves to do so (which even at current slightly reduced prices is just about any typical person) is going to be in serious financial do-do within 12 months.

Hear hear.




You are right. However, the poor people who bought shoeboxes to get a foot on the ladder are going to be stuck there for longer than they may wish... difficult if they want to have children.

YoungFTB, think the word DISINFORMATION is more appropriate to use to be honest in regards to Helen Carson repeating this EA/VI spin!

Disinformation is the deliberate dissemination of false information!!

Disinformation should not be confused with misinformation, which is not deliberate; i.e., the person or news source forwarding the information doesn't know it's not true and/or actually believes it; thus, disinformation can be relayed as misinformation if the one relaying the message is not aware that the originator of the message deliberately manufactured false information and offered it up for distribution.

Thanks for clearing that up Sdoey!

I agree - this is why I have such a fundamental problem with investing and speculating residential property - these are homes first and foremost! I really feel for the first time buyer who bought because circumstances demanded that they must, or those who fell for the 'property ladder' marketing pitch. Buying a home at the right time means security and freedom, but buying at the wrong time can (and will) prove to be a financial millstone around the neck for many. It wouldn't be so bad if it didn't also mean limiting life ambitions like raising a family.

As for me, like most young FTB's, I can wait until I can buy a decent property in a decent area at a decent income multiple (3.5). Maybe It'll never happen, but in a funny way I'm cool with that also - I point blank refuse to be in hock to the bank for my entire adult life!

Go Jamie!

patience is a virtue

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-ft...nings-ratio.php

Same here, in the meantime I am still saving and happy to wait. The thought of a nice short mortgage at the end of it, ahhhhhhhhh.

I am surprised by your rant. It raises so many questions.

Why are you critising a person in the media, for telling us the truth?

Would you prefer potential first-time buyers were not aware of the facts?

Do you want more first-time buyers to make the biggest mistake of their lives?

Are you aware of the crashing housing market in America, Spain and Republic of Ireland?

Do you have any idea of what happens to speculative housing/credit bubbles?

Do you realise what the fundamentals of affordability are for house prices?

Do you have a vested interest?

Oh... and welcome to the site

Hey, thanks for all the comments but don't forget that the point of discussion was that the press should be more responsible.

Don't underestimate the power of the press and the media.....

Remember Edwina Currie and Salmonella/Princess Diana's death/Gerald Ratner and his jewellery empire/The Northen Rock crisis? All powerful messages which had phenominal impact on the people.

Yes, the press has the power to spread the word, and if it should get the tone wrong it can make a lot of people run from one direction or another direction which is partly why the market went mad here in the first place and houses went from generations of cheap, cheap, cheap to expensive.

Thereby your implication is that the reverse is true.

With regard to the J. Delargy piece, was he not referencing the following:

'The Department of Communities and Local Government in London shows that the price of a typical house here fell by twenty three thousand pounds from a peak last August. Overall that represents a drop of almost ten per cent.'

Therefore, his journalism is based on Govt. published figures (accuracy being for another debate at another time please!).

Hence, a bit better than the usual half baked ramping quoting VI EAs across the land

I would argue that the price didn't go from cheap cheap cheap to expensive. Going by affordability in 2005 most people would have had to stretch their finances with the average price comparing multiples of salary even then.

In Q2 2005 average price according to Nationwide was 128k about 6-7 times average salary
In Q2 2003 average price according to Nationwide was 90k about 4-6 times average salary

yes, the upward movement was indeed a curve

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ost&id=7086

The mainstream media have signalled their direction change:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7191012.stm


Wednesday, 16 January 2008, 09:34 GMT

House price fall 'at 1990s rates'

Rics says confidence about sales and prices is at a 10-year low
Property prices are falling at rates not seen since the 1990s housing recession, a surveyors body has warned.

Consider the damage that has been done by certain journos in NI ramping the market (even now!!). Does that bother you at all?

As has been said, Jamie Delargy was using official stats, not quotes from estate agents dressed up as expert forecasts.





Oh how I LOVE that headline! It's also the most viewed story on the BBC news website.

The Times They Are A-Changin

Headlines for utv 6pm news - downward spiral of house prices.


My hero!! 10 minutes in and its doom and gloom - too much supply - already down 10% and at least 10% to go. Mr McLelland singing from a different hymnsheet when Helen isn't around.

Does anyone know if there is a real player stream for this?

Let me get out my calculator... 10%+10%=20% What was the time frame for this massive drop?

Let's hope it stops at 20%, or our resident economist md23040, is going to have to revise his predictions of a 10-20% drop (ding-dong )

Anyone else notices how, every week the predictions seem to be getting worse for house prices.

The press are gradually changing from predicting prices leveling off, then 10%, then 20%, then 30%, then 40% falls in house prices? I wonder when they will get it right A saying about monkeys and typewriters comes to mind. Given an infinite number of monkeys and infinite number of typewriters - eventually one of the monkeys will write the entire works of Shakespeare.

Some jokes for md23040 (ding-dong) -

The First Law of Economists: For every economist, there exists an equal and opposite economist.

The Second Law of Economists: They're both wrong.

An economist is is a trained professional who gets paid to guess wrong about the economy.

Pah... Median nominal house will price drop overall by my prediction still, but not in synch across all housing stocks and districts of Northern Ireland. That is different housing stocks and different districts will fall disproportionably. Real costs of housing by 2014 when they start to rise again will be different in real terms.

Economists...Pah, I don't rate them, screwed up banks with to many inventive models.

Still 2009 IMO will be the year, don't underestimate the flakiness of the NI public if IR's are cut by 1/2 to 3/4 basis points. It all subjective but dream on. The bearishness of the public, although not the same outside this thread but worsening, is a dream buying opportunity to me. Especially for stocks and shares in 12 months time. Waiting for the ISEQ and FTSE to return to 2004 lows. Warren Buffett must be having wet dreams.




To print one Shakespeare Book would be 1.3million^26 , to print the entire catalogue not sure.

P.S. Profit...have you been eating choc's over the holidays, your avatar's looking different.

Seems to still be some property bulls out there

http://u.tv/BusinessNews/index.asp?iBlogID...Date=16/01/2008

"...what we are seeing now is the necessary re-adjustment our property market needed, not the huge “bust” which makes for easy headlines..."

"...The market did over-shoot, but my view is that it has now swung to far the other way and houses are being sold by desperate and panicky vendors for less than their true value"

I had left my t'penny's worth earlier. These comments remind me that, we still are the uber-bears here (not surprising given the name of the site!)



Ah, time for a change. The original avatar was just to show I didn't take myself too seriously!

However, I feel the need to express myself more artistically now with items of outstanding beauty such as Senna's JPS F1 Lotus,

psst check out this beauty (Esprit Turbo in JPS Colours) breathtaking...............(beats Damien Hurst any day of the week)

Click to view attachment

Don't get rid of knick knack, great 70's memories but Herve would love a spin in that wagon. For a real piece of work try out Mr Kidd, my fav. To keep on topic, he looks a bit like Jamie Delargy.

OK he's back again.

Jaws was my absolutely favourite baddie - alongside Moore as Bond (maybe not as 'cool' as Connery, but he was the best OK!!)

Anyway back on topic (apologies mnc) - The balance in the media has been restored: Delargy is the natural antidote to Carswrong

Very interesting discussion, especially the bit about the Lotus!

One last piece of wisdom for those who understimate the power of the press before I abandon this topic and move on.

Remember Philip Johnston, one of the most successful brands in Belfast Estate Agency ever, and what happened to his business when he made the headlines almost three years ago(through no fault of his own)? Overnight half his customers desterted him, and he himself had to go.

People do listen to the press, and even act on what they are told.

Responsible and balanced journalism is what we need, the big heavy headlines are overused enough as it is.

What happened?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Johnston_(estate_agent)

Philip Johnston is a former estate agent from Belfast, Northern Ireland. Until April 2005 Johnston operated a successful estate agency, concentrating on east Belfast.

In April 2005 Johnston was arrested on suspicion of money laundering. Former Ulster Defence Association leader Jim Gray had been arrested three days earlier, along with Gray's then girlfriend Sharon Moss. The three were suspected to be using Johnston's property business to launder money from Gray's criminal activities. Central to the allegations was a luxury property Gray was renting from Johnston at Cherry Tree Walk in Cherryvalley.[1] Johnston also purchased The Avenue One bar on the Newtownards Road from Gray for redevelopment.

In October 2005 Gray was shot dead at his father's home in east Belfast, after being expelled from the UDA.

In August 2006 all charges against Johnston were dropped without explantion from the Public Prosecution Service for Northern Ireland. After his arrest Johnston was forced to sell his business and was expelled from the National Association of Estate Agents. The case was raised with the Police Ombudsman.[2] His former business was subject to a management buyout, and now operates as MCW Residential.

In 2007 BBC Northern Ireland screened House Traders, a documentary series on Johnston's business.

I think I remember at the end he was going to North England to start a new life - he was devastated by the loss of his reputation - he was courageous to allow his business break up to be filmed.

True Value!!!

What is value - i guess it's what people are prepared to pay.
What are people prepared to pay - must have some relation to what they can aford to pay.

If these guys who are pimping the market believed what they were saying they would be taking out millions of £ in loans to buy up places for less than their true value.

Complete balls -

Quote from the UTV comments section from Jamie de largy
At 11:18 on 17 Jan 2008, Jamie wrote:
Let’s all agree on one thing. The science of predicting house prices is akin to astrology but without the precision. No one, not even the best informed economist, actually knows where prices will end up in a year’s time. The best you can do is to look at the factors that should influence buying patterns and make an informed guess.

Most of the relevant arguments have been mentioned in your emails. The relationship between house prices and wages, the herd mentality driving prices one way and then another, the role of speculators, the supply of property, the level of debt among those who want to buy a home.

What isn’t a factor and I say this with no sense of false modesty is the role of media including myself. For ages I have been saying property is overpriced. The result; the cost of homes just kept rising. In those circumstances it seems a little implausible that I and others are responsible for the present slide.

Generally I have never believed the media created a trend in anything. However once one gets going, commentators can make events happen more quickly than they otherwise would. In other words publicity about falling prices may get us faster to where we were going to end up anyway.

But even that is just my supposition. Keep the comments coming.

quote

My contribution has been printed
http://www1.u.tv/BusinessNews/index.asp?iB...8&comment=1

OOOOOOOOOH

Maybe he reads this site.

yes i noticed a certain similarity in the 'flow' of opinion in the last few days

who knows he may even post here

BTW, he makes a good point about being bearish when HPs were rising, so his credibility is sound IMHO

also I wonder what mnc's occupation is - though I respect his / her privacy all the same

that's considering that most of them posts in his comments section are you lot from here

Woo, they printed my comment. Let's hope it becomes one of the most commented-upon articles on the site, then it might be kept on the front page!!

yes

(including the bulls!)

bump

Come on guys, post your comment on the UTV link above!

I heard someone at work giving out about Jamie D, seems that he is winding up a few bulls!

Good old Jamie - "Prices Plunge" UTV at 6pm.

More detail please! I missed it. Would be so grateful for a quick rundown.

Tara,

I think you should be able to see last nights UTV live here:

http://u.tv/newsroom/onair.asp?q=hi&pt...amp;f=0.8078119

You'll need broadband and to open the webpage in Internet Explorer NOT Firefox. Not sure about other browsers tho.

Not sure how far into the broadcast the Jamie D piece is as you cannot fast forward and you'll have to watch the whole programme.

Well that was some bear food from Jamie. About 5 minutes into the bulletin at 6pm - slowest housing market for 30 years- RICS report - CML 2500 loans in Jan this year compared with 6400 in Jan last year. Someone else who had said there was a rise in house prices last month had got their figures wrong so more bad news. McLelland said market had been stagnant for 12 months.



Post your comments here
http://u.tv/BusinessNews/index.asp?iBlogID...2008&next=1

This was basically repeated on the U105 Business Brief at 6.20pm. He actually went further and asked the question "Why would a first time buyer consider buying now?" and suggested prices could even undershoot. I reckon there must be several estate agents turning over in their mercs at this very moment!

95% of EAs reporting falls - feck that's a lot, I suppose the only bright light for them is that it can only get 5% worse:p Next months figures will be the first one of spring, you know that time EA's tell us people buy in? Excuses are about to run out boys!

Lots of comments on now esp one from a BTL magnate.