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House Price Crash forum > About housepricecrash.co.uk > housepricecrash.co.uk in the media
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Waiting Patiently
Merged posts:

Might be worth a look:

QUOTE
Britain's Biggest House Price Falls:

Tonight ITV 1

Wednesday 9th January 10:00pm to 10:30pm

Investigation into the current downturn in Britain's housing market, revealing the areas of the country worst affected and asking not just who stands to lose out, but who stands to benefit from the slump


ITV.com

From S Whitely
For those of you yet to see the item (or who want to watch it over and over and over again), you can download it from the HPC server: Download now (24 mins 1 sec, DivX, 77.9MB)
Realistbear
They may have the usual panel of "experts"* trying to defuse the full horror of the crash by saying prices have "crashed" by as much as 0.1% and could stagnate going into the first half of 2008 before regaining upward momentum in the second half.

The experts* will NEVER admit to a crash. IIRC they didn't acknowledge the prices drops in Great Crash 1.

_________________

*Experts: Estate Agents, Mortgage Brokers, Bankers and NuLabour politicians all moderated by a HPI friendly goon.
Waiting Patiently
RB, you're probably right, there is still a determined attempt to deny what is happening and what is ahead. But I remember several similiar programmes back in the early nineties full of horror stories about negative equity, repossessions, and house prices halving in 2 years alongside estate agents claiming, laughably, that everything was just about to pick up again. Sentiment changed profoundly.

By 1994, if you said you were thinking of buying a house, most people thought you were mad laugh.gif
Wad
QUOTE (Waiting Patiently @ Jan 5 2008, 12:35 PM) *
By 1994, if you said you were thinking of buying a house, most people thought you were mad laugh.gif



They will again in 2010.
CrashingPumpkin
QUOTE (Waiting Patiently @ Jan 5 2008, 12:35 PM) *
By 1994, if you said you were thinking of buying a house, most people thought you were mad laugh.gif


When people start saying this again you will know that is the time to buy.
meow
Just a thought here...

What would the lead time on such a programme be?
crashmonitor
QUOTE (Waiting Patiently @ Jan 5 2008, 12:35 PM) *
RB, you're probably right, there is still a determined attempt to deny what is happening and what is ahead. But I remember several similiar programmes back in the early nineties full of horror stories about negative equity, repossessions, and house prices halving in 2 years alongside estate agents claiming, laughably, that everything was just about to pick up again. Sentiment changed profoundly.

By 1994, if you said you were thinking of buying a house, most people thought you were mad laugh.gif

Don't think 1994 was the time to buy,it certainly didn't really get going until 1997-1999.The three to five years after 94 were marked by stagnation.I was laughed at for buying a house for 77K in 1996,property then was still thought of as something that only goes down after seven years of inflation -adjusted falls.I eventually got out via a px deal involving my property at 300K and then had to off-load the px.This was 2006 and was about two years past the peak for Derbyshire.I bought a little early and sold a little late.
Saving For a Space Ship
QUOTE (CrashingPumpkin @ Jan 5 2008, 01:10 PM) *
When people start saying this again you will know that is the time to buy.


So 'they' say, but i'm not sure it will be the same in this mother of all booms (and presumably busts), as we are into unchartered territory in terms of size and consequence.
CrashingPumpkin
QUOTE (crashmonitor @ Jan 5 2008, 01:18 PM) *
Don't think 1994 was the time to buy,it certainly didn't really get going until 1997-1999.The three to five years after 94 were marked by stagnation.I was laughed at for buying a house for 77K in 1996,property then was still thought of as something that only goes down after seven years of inflation -adjusted falls.I eventually got out via a px deal involving my property at 300K and then had to off-load the px.This was 2006 and was about two years past the peak for Derbyshire.I bought a little early and sold a little late.


Buying at the start of a period of stagnating prices would not bother me as much as jumping in too late. Its knowing when we've hit the bottom.
Methinkshe
QUOTE (meow @ Jan 5 2008, 01:12 PM) *
Just a thought here...

What would the lead time on such a programme be?



Interesting question. I reckon a small independent company could produce such a programme in under a month. I once got involved in a small scale documentary that was commissioned for English Language teaching concerning the incorrect use of the apostrophe. Long story but someone had picked up on a court case I was involved in that in part rested on the incorrect use of an apostrophe and telephoned me to see whether I would be interested in appearing on this programme. I agreed, spent one day in London filming and the whole episode was completed within a day and edited within a week.
meow
QUOTE (Methinkshe @ Jan 5 2008, 01:37 PM) *
Interesting question. I reckon a small independent company could produce such a programme in under a month. I once got involved in a small scale documentary that was commissioned for English Language teaching concerning the incorrect use of the apostrophe. Long story but someone had picked up on a court case I was involved in that in part rested on the incorrect use of an apostrophe and telephoned me to see whether I would be interested in appearing on this programme. I agreed, spent one day in London filming and the whole episode was completed within a day and edited within a week.


"thats" quick

wink.gif
Methinkshe
QUOTE (meow @ Jan 5 2008, 01:42 PM) *
"thats" quick

wink.gif


Yeah! The bugger was, we lost the case at the Appeal Court. Still, we have the dubious distinction of having made case law - all to do with shorthold tenancies. I am not a landlord's favourite person after that little episode! But it was quite an experience going to the Court of Appeal in London - even if we did lose the case! Lost at Magistrates, won at County Court, lost at Appeal court. Interesting little exercise.....
pioneer31
QUOTE (Realistbear @ Jan 5 2008, 12:26 PM) *
They may have the usual panel of "experts"* trying to defuse the full horror of the crash by saying prices have "crashed" by as much as 0.1% and could stagnate going into the first half of 2008 before regaining upward momentum in the second half.



Will somebody please tell me what the is official reason given for this?
adren
QUOTE (Waiting Patiently @ Jan 5 2008, 12:20 PM) *
Might be worth a look:



ITV.com



Whay hayyyy.
We'll have the Kleenex out for that one!
Waiting Patiently
There's more. Cue the weeping, wailing, and gnashing of teeth as the sob stories get rolled out:

QUOTE
New Year Debt Busters:

Friday 11th January on ITV 1 from 8:00pm to 8:30pm
Tonight ITV 1

As the cost of Christmas adds to Britain's debt mountain, which is increasing by £15million every hour, Jonathan Maitland looks at what can be done to control the nation's credit culture and cure the financial hangover

Realistbear
QUOTE (pioneer31 @ Jan 5 2008, 03:11 PM) *
Will somebody please tell me what the is official reason given for this?


Why do the experts say prices will resume upwards later this year (after the 0.1% "crash")?

They say the demand side of the equation will ensure everlasting HPI. They conveniently forget the supply side which tends to increase as prices rise and buyers are forced out of the market and as foreclosures multiply lowering prices accross the board. VIs can never come to grips with the cyclical nature of a free market.
Financial Planner
"Britain's Biggest House Price Falls: Tonight
ITV 1
Investigation into the current downturn in Britain's housing market, revealing the areas of the
country worst affected and asking not just who stands to lose out, but who stands to benefit from the
slump"

I can tell RB et al that it will be full on HPC friendly.

100% fact. Guaranteed...
Financial Planner
QUOTE (meow @ Jan 5 2008, 01:12 PM) *
Just a thought here...

What would the lead time on such a programme be?

3 weeks
Financial Planner
QUOTE (Methinkshe @ Jan 5 2008, 01:37 PM) *
Interesting question. I reckon a small independent company could produce such a programme in under a month.
Except that this is ITN.
jez123
Is this before or after "bad location bad location bad location"? laugh.gif
Daft Boy
QUOTE (crashmonitor @ Jan 5 2008, 01:18 PM) *
Don't think 1994 was the time to buy,it certainly didn't really get going until 1997-1999.The three to five years after 94 were marked by stagnation.



1994 was the optimum time for house purchase during the last correction. Bargain basement prices combined with a vast choice. Although prices dropped a bit further up until 1996 most of the best properties had been snapped up by then.
Jason74
QUOTE (Saving For a Space Ship @ Jan 5 2008, 01:26 PM) *
So 'they' say, but i'm not sure it will be the same in this mother of all booms (and presumably busts), as we are into unchartered territory in terms of size and consequence.


I think it will almost certainly hold true again as before. The extreme bulls are perhaps just finding out that it's not "different this time", because it never is. Likewise, it's not "different this time" on the downside (imho). Prices will probably fall, eventually they will hit a bottom, and after bumping along at that bottom for a while people will be thinking that property is only ever a bad move.

At that point, it will be time to buy imho. The downside will be no more "different this time" than the up.
Mr Yogi
QUOTE (CrashingPumpkin @ Jan 5 2008, 01:10 PM) *
When people start saying this again you will know that is the time to buy.




Never a truer word...

I bought a four bedroomed house off my landlady in 1994 for the value of her outstanding mortgage - £62k. She had bought the house for over £100k in 1989.

People thought I was mad!

It was worth c£95k by 1998 when I seperated from wife.

I sold in 2003 for £190k due to divorce.

House sold again last year for £350k


People thought I was mad!

Son of Taeper
QUOTE (Methinkshe @ Jan 5 2008, 01:37 PM) *
Interesting question. I reckon a small independent company could produce such a programme in under a month. I once got involved in a small scale documentary that was commissioned for English Language teaching concerning the incorrect use of the apostrophe. Long story but someone had picked up on a court case I was involved in that in part rested on the incorrect use of an apostrophe and telephoned me to see whether I would be interested in appearing on this programme. I agreed, spent one day in London filming and the whole episode was completed within a day and edited within a week.

Depends on the production but I have worked on things from Tellietubbies to News 24 and time is always of the essence with a big story. I can edit a 5 minute story in less than a day on my own... audio and video.
dubsie
My mother has just managed to sell her house and is now looking to downsize. She has put an offer on a house similar to my house in the same area but has much bigger garden and is in better condition, I paid £115,000 for my house 4 years ago and she has just had an offer of 107,000 accepted.

I've spent in the region of 10,000 on my house and owe in the region of 80,000 on the loan. It's unlikely that I'll fall into negative equity but I've certainly lost a lot of money already.

House prices are falling now and the rates they are falling by is increasing.

huw
QUOTE (crashmonitor @ Jan 5 2008, 01:18 PM) *
Don't think 1994 was the time to buy,it certainly didn't really get going until 1997-1999.The three to five years after 94 were marked by stagnation.I was laughed at for buying a house for 77K in 1996,property then was still thought of as something that only goes down after seven years of inflation -adjusted falls.I eventually got out via a px deal involving my property at 300K and then had to off-load the px.This was 2006 and was about two years past the peak for Derbyshire.I bought a little early and sold a little late.

It may depend on location: I bought a London house in 1994 for 75k and sold it in 1998 for 110k. And not one person told me I was mad tongue.gif

IMO it was obvious that 1994 was a buying opportunity in London -- if you could manage to find a good property (which wasn't easy).
Bearfacts
QUOTE (Financial Planner @ Jan 5 2008, 06:57 PM) *
"Britain's Biggest House Price Falls: Tonight
ITV 1
Investigation into the current downturn in Britain's housing market, revealing the areas of the
country worst affected and asking not just who stands to lose out, but who stands to benefit from the
slump"

I can tell RB et al that it will be full on HPC friendly.

100% fact. Guaranteed...


Hi FP .. would I be correct in infering from your comments that you had some involvement in this program ?
Financial Planner
QUOTE (Bearfacts @ Jan 6 2008, 05:15 PM) *
Hi FP .. would I be correct in infering from your comments that you had some involvement in this program ?

Youmay say that. I couldn't possibly comment... cool.gif
francis
QUOTE (Waiting Patiently @ Jan 5 2008, 12:20 PM) *
Might be worth a look:



ITV.com



Also definitely worth a listen is 'Debt Threat' on BBC World Service.


The first episode was broadcast last week and can be listened to again here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/document..._threat_1.shtml


The second episode is titled 'Any Escape?'. The blurb is...

The second programme will look at the dangers of the present crisis turning into a full scale recession, and at the seemingly desperate attempts of bankers, regulators and politicians to prevent that happening.
What chance do they have of success? And does history have any lessons to offer?
With house prices and stock markets already beginning to fall, the debts which are secured on them look ever more fragile. Can anything be done to stabilise the situation, and avoid ever more pain in the real economy as the monstrous debt pile unwinds?


The second episode is being broadcast tomorrow (7th Jan) at 9.05am, 12.05pm and 8.05pm.

Enjoy! wink.gif
Confiteor
BBC try to fight back by scheduling this in direct competition:

QUOTE
What Britain Earns Wednesday 09 January
9:00pm - 10:30pm
BBC2
Each year at this time, the Snows descend on Britain. Two years ago Peter and his eager son Dan toured the country to discover who owned Britain, then last year they revealed what it was all worth; now they explore the touchiest subject of the lot - how much we earn. It makes for another semi-diverting ramble through the byways of the economy. Peter, whose lofty tones and loftier eyebrows are nearing national treasure status, is accompanied by his usual graphics magic to make all the big numbers palatable. He also puts Dan to work in a range of jobs from picking leeks in Norfolk on the minimum wage to City trading, all of which Dan does only slightly worse than his day job. But the most remarkable scene is a detour into shoe magnate Tamara Mellon's walk-in wardrobe, her "B closet". Your jaw may drop.

OT: how much of a tube would you have to be to follow around in your dad's shadow like that pr!ck Dan Snow does? And why the funk am I asked to pay for it. Jobs for the boy!
buckers
That's really quite a listen ! And from the BBC ! (OK, so it's not their main news website).

- Problem is not just applicable to the US
- UK has it's own 'sub-prime' in the form of 'lie to buy'
- General problems in Europe caused by weakening $
- Circle of contracting lending leading to house price drops leading to further contracting lending,etc,etc
- China not actually capable of 'coming to the rescue' of the global economy

Buckers

QUOTE (francis @ Jan 6 2008, 06:22 PM) *
Also definitely worth a listen is 'Debt Threat' on BBC World Service.

The first episode was broadcast last week and can be listened to again here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/document..._threat_1.shtml

The second episode is titled 'Any Escape?'. The blurb is...

The second programme will look at the dangers of the present crisis turning into a full scale recession, and at the seemingly desperate attempts of bankers, regulators and politicians to prevent that happening.
What chance do they have of success? And does history have any lessons to offer?
With house prices and stock markets already beginning to fall, the debts which are secured on them look ever more fragile. Can anything be done to stabilise the situation, and avoid ever more pain in the real economy as the monstrous debt pile unwinds?


The second episode is being broadcast tomorrow (7th Jan) at 9.05am, 12.05pm and 8.05pm.

Enjoy! wink.gif
JustinC
Is the programme going to be studio debate or docu?


Financial Planner
QUOTE (JustinC @ Jan 7 2008, 10:39 PM) *
Is the programme going to be studio debate or docu?

docu
vpatel
QUOTE (Waiting Patiently @ Jan 5 2008, 12:20 PM) *
Might be worth a look:



ITV.com


Yet another programme on the bandwagon. A few months ago ITV showed a programme on the housing boom! Some people on this forum appear to be hysterical about short term house fluctuations. Remember that if you have reasonable equity in your house and you are not planning on selling then a 'fall' in house prices is only a fall on paper. It is only realised when it comes to selling the property. Even then, most homeowners and BTL Landlords who have bought in good locations have owned their properties for a period of time so an absolute loss is very unlikely.
Financial Planner
QUOTE (vpatel @ Jan 9 2008, 09:40 AM) *
Remember that if you have reasonable equity in your house and you are not planning on selling then a 'fall' in house prices is only a fall on paper. It is only realised when it comes to selling the property. Even then, most homeowners and BTL Landlords who have bought in good locations have owned their properties for a period of time so an absolute loss is very unlikely.

Disagree.

Anyone with a say £450k house and say £200k mortgage and say £25k other debts with the debts serviced by 2 incomes - as most are - will care greatly when one loses their income. This is not extreme.

Also, why service a debt on a falling asset. If, like Japan, prices are no higher in 20 years than today (there, they are 20-30% below!!!) why on earth keep that debt, when you could put the money to far far better use elsewhere?
vpatel
QUOTE (Financial Planner @ Jan 9 2008, 12:30 PM) *
Disagree.

Anyone with a say £450k house and say £200k mortgage and say £25k other debts with the debts serviced by 2 incomes - as most are - will care greatly when one loses their income. This is not extreme.

Also, why service a debt on a falling asset. If, like Japan, prices are no higher in 20 years than today (there, they are 20-30% below!!!) why on earth keep that debt, when you could put the money to far far better use elsewhere?



i disagree with your big IF, ie "if, like Japan" - there is no evidence or forecast model to say that house prices over the medium to long term will not increase. Japan is also an anomoly - which other stable major economies have experienced persistent decline in house prices? With population trend forecasts showing steady and significant increases in the UK this also supports the underlying demand for property.
Financial Planner
QUOTE (vpatel @ Jan 9 2008, 01:15 PM) *
i disagree with your big IF

Actually we ar very similar to Japan of the late 80s. I'd give it at least 50/50. Irrespective, what about the scenarion I put - I take it you agree with that asd you didn't say otherwise. Hence, many who will not be theoretically in -ve eq will fee it very very hard indeed - and that's putting it mildly.
vpatel
QUOTE (Financial Planner @ Jan 9 2008, 01:27 PM) *
Actually we ar very similar to Japan of the late 80s. I'd give it at least 50/50. Irrespective, what about the scenarion I put - I take it you agree with that asd you didn't say otherwise. Hence, many who will not be theoretically in -ve eq will fee it very very hard indeed - and that's putting it mildly.


so where do this family live after they sell their home? Do they rent from a Landlord? Surely, better to cut down on expenditure and keep paying the mortgage in lieu of rent, thereby paying into an long-term appreciating asset. Yes it may be difficult and in some cases not possible to service the debt but in other cases it will be fine.
Financial Planner
QUOTE (vpatel @ Jan 9 2008, 01:51 PM) *
so where do this family live after they sell their home?

For a year now they've been walking away and handing the keys in to the bank in the US. They're now doing it in Spain. The same will happen in here and Ireland and elsewhere.

Its the same as repossession.
GAL BEAR
I know its pinned but lots of us may not notice it there....

Bump this when you read it so it does not fall off the front plage (so we all get to see it).
Frank Hovis
QUOTE (GAL BEAR @ Jan 9 2008, 07:04 PM) *
I know its pinned but lots of us may not notice it there....

Bump this when you read it so it does not fall off the front plage (so we all get to see it).


Thanks, I had forgotten.

I think the pinned threads have been there so long I don't notice them anymore.
debt-free
QUOTE (Frank Hovis @ Jan 9 2008, 07:40 PM) *
Thanks, I had forgotten.

I think the pinned threads have been there so long I don't notice them anymore.



Likewise. BUMP !
OzzMosiz
I'll forget, as I'll be tucked up in bed. Can someone record it and MPEG it?
flapjack
Wow - real entertainment!

8.00 Ch 4 - Kirsty and Phil - How to make a killing in property.

9.00 Ch 4 - Hugh F-W - How to kill a chicken!

10.00 ITV - Biggest house falls!!

Thats what I call entertainment!! You have to laugh - all we need now is Jamie O trying to save the poor bush tucker creatures - or at least cook them properly. What ever happened to the 'Good Life' or Morecambe and Wise. huh.gif
GAL BEAR
[quote nameCan someone record it and MPEG it?
[/quote]


GOD ! if i knew what that was i would gladly do it for you !!!!
Daft Boy
crash.....its sounds better than bump
29929BlackTuesday
Yes - I'll be watching.

Predict it'll be a washout on the lines of "Look at the price falls - now it'll go back up so go and snap up a bargain"
OzzMosiz
QUOTE (GAL BEAR @ Jan 9 2008, 07:55 PM) *
[quote nameCan someone record it and MPEG it?



GOD ! if i knew what that was i would gladly do it for you !!!!



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MPEG-4 wink.gif
Methinkshe
QUOTE (flapjack @ Jan 9 2008, 07:53 PM) *
Wow - real entertainment!

8.00 Ch 4 - Kirsty and Phil - How to make a killing in property.

9.00 Ch 4 - Hugh F-W - How to kill a chicken!

10.00 ITV - Biggest house falls!!

Thats what I call entertainment!! You have to laugh - all we need now is Jamie O trying to save the poor bush tucker creatures - or at least cook them properly. What ever happened to the 'Good Life' or Morecambe and Wise. huh.gif


Just watched it - same old stuff; buying 2 bed flats in Bristol off-plan is a good investment. No mention of falling property market - just implied that is was clever negotiating on their part when they managed to get 20K off a £325K property in Devon.

Anyway *BUMP* for the 10pm prog on ITV
mew too
thanks bumpers, i wouldnt have seen this if wasnt for your efforts.


bump tongue.gif
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