Back in August, Euros were floating around their historical (5 year) value of 2/3 £ (i.e. 67p).

On Friday, the Euro nearly touched 3/4 the value of Sterling (i.e. 75p)

My question is this, with (predicted) falls in NI HPs this year and possible* continued gains in the euro, will RoI Specuvestors be tempted back to the NI market any sooner?

*http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axotNuw2luh0&refer=home

If UK/US IRs go down and Euro IRs up, the Euro can only get stronger

I doubt it - there can be no appetite for speculation left. Plus, who will buy up all the for sale property?

That's my worry, too - and not just about the ROI folks, but everyone whose currencies are going up vs. sterling.

However, this £ weakness works both ways: on the one hand it makes investments more "affordable", on the other, it erodes the profits. One has to really believe in the pound's revival to throw their euros at UK property. And the BTL rental income is not an option, as you know.

Meanwhile those who have already "invested" are pinched badly by the falling pound, as well as by the falling prices.

A wise investor would not do it.

I don't see this happening, perhaps with businesses yes but not with housing. The bubble has burst and it'll probably take another 15 - 20 years before the bubble peaks again.

Doesn't matter how strong the Euro is if they have to borrow lots of them to buy an overpriced house.

Property speculation in the RoI is dead; those with properties in the North will be looking to sell them ASAP before they lose out on sale value and currency conversion rates.

Any investor with half a brain, would not buy a depreciating asset.

... money would do better in a bank.

Northern Ireland property has just started to depreciate. Sheeple just don't know it yet.

Couldn't agree more. Also ECB rates look likely to rise, there is just no appetite for debt north or south of the border at present. It will be a vicious self-fulfilling circle.

knock, knock, knocking at 0.75p's door (apologies Eric or was it Dylan )

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURGBP=X&t=1d

This has sent me into a tailspin in the last few weeks. ROI can withstand €1 to $1.40-$1.42 as far as export but it is now $1.47. The Stg is the largest trading partner, and the 75pence scenario can only be described as unexpected nightmare. It will cause a lot of pain and will travel more than likely to the .7875 to .80 barrier, soon enough. The BBC and other lobby groups are already on the band wagon clamoring for another rate cut from the government in the UK. Retail numbers other than M&S on Jan 14th are going to be very bad. City banks should just do a straw poll and forget about the monetary committee. Oh how I can't stand Brown.

ECB hopefully will hold rates, even though Germans are shit scared of their inflation at 3.3% in December [German exporters can withstand €1 - $1.80 due to lower costs, higher productivity]. But they will not get their way though and it'll be a hold throughout 2008. Btw does anyone know why, apart from UK plc being dead in the water the reasons sterling is tanking? Interest rates are higher than Eubor and monies and forex should flow rationally in a proper market conditions? Is George Soros back?

If 80p is hit then some ROI fruit cakes may look at value again in NI on seeking distressed sellers only. The London S/Exc offers some really good value. Many companies are trading below book value and low P/e's. Only though if the currency stabilises. When though!?

I put it down to traders having already priced in 1 or 2 further BoE cuts this year.

Who is going to buy them?? This feeding frenzy is over.

apologies for dragging this one out of the hpc backwaters but.........

for all those interested in the €:£, the next month may provide more clues regarding its longer-term direction.

In detail, it is seemingly at a crossroads at the moment (see attached graph) but during March, we will see in the short-term whether it stays at a plateau (.75p ish) or the upward pressures (that have been there since Sept. 07) continue.



Of course it may go down, so just to recap it may go up, stabalise or go down.

edit: changed jpeg loc.

The 6th of March may provide the answer. Both the ECB and MPC meet to set IR's.

It looks like the 'break-out of pattern' is already occurring and it's not even March yet!

The upward climb is winning it (at the mo) £1 = €0.7627

another cr@p day for sterling vs euro