Report on an earlier post from the main forum that Moneyweek latest edition had allegedly stated that Irish Banks were seen to be particularly at risk from Sub Prime. Now before I go on I would like to stress I have not received my copy yet but if this is the case ???

How Exposed are they?
Which Banks are perceived as having higher exposure?
Has anyone any anecdotal evidence as to their position at present?

It just seems strange to me that we have all this questioning and doubt about the liquidity / solvency of British and American Banks but virtually no talk about Irish Banks (North and South) - it all seems very strange!

What do you think?

We have a good sized position on that one of them is in big doo-doo...

Which one? PM me if you don't want to post it here

I get the message "You are not allowed to use the messenger feature on this board" so I can't PM you.

thanks - have put in request.

Just heard from a contact that our fears may be about to be confirmed - Ireland will have its own Northern Rock...

Okay then - it's the one that begins with Anglo and ends in Bank ALLEGEDLY!

For full disclosure, we hold a short position in the above stock. This is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. My view is based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but I make no representation and accept no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy. Do your own research.

I must say Chicken I'm surprised there has been little or no attention in the media to the financial stability of Irish and N Irish banks. As the value of assets drop by considerable amounts on their books - never mind the defaults we are likely to see over the coming months and years it will be no surprise to me to see Rock situations develope much closer to home. There has been a level of irrationality in lending standards here that at times beggared belief. I am very very concerned at the Irish Banking Sectors health and future prognosis as this recessionary depression develops.

I am very very concerned at the Irish Banking Sectors health and future prognosis as this recessionary depression develops.

You are comparing apples and oranges by comparing Irish Banks to Paragon or Northern Rock. The lending model and loan books are completely different. Unless you can tell me something other than some having a larger proportional weighting within construction then there is nothing valid. All banks still retain AAA status and these are reviewed quarterly or bi-monthly. Anglo wrote off all its subprime at €51m in its last profit declaration in December [read its last prospectus]. Profits net were well over €1bn and €700m new depoist per month. All Irish banks have sub prime of sorts but most of it is now IMO within managed funds or pension funds. This credit crunch is over rated, although severe enough like previous shocks it is not catastrophic. The world banking system writes off $800bn per year if memory serves me right. IMO most subprime is locked, as junk assets etc within most pension funds. In thirty years time the markets will have moved enough to recapitalise pension earning to allow them to become ancient history [such small weighting within funds]. Since the 1970's I heard every apocalyptic prediction within the markets that I care not to mention. None in the end created a jot of a difference in real terms. Money still will make the world go round, maybe at a slower speed for now.

I grant you one thing in ROI. One bank is more exposed than others somewhat. But I certainly will not name.




America according to most rationale observers will slip into mild recession. This will ease commodity pressures apart from Softs. As UK plc has sold all its assets, it may fair worse, but not cataclysmic. This is opinion although no one can be definitive unless there is someone out there that can predict the future?

I've always been a fan of Merryns - she doesn't care who she upsets she just tells it as it is .....



http://www.moneyweek.com/file/40440/the-ir...no-bargain.html

Need we say more - Irish Banks are not all they seem - or so it would seem.

good find

Thanks - but I read it on main site today to It's not really my find though the magazine has just got posted through my letterbox a couple of mins ago!

PP - hows the little one doing - hope everything is going well

v. well thanks - she has her first speech therapy lesson booked soon, so these will hopefully correct any longer term difficulties

Sorry again for replying to my own post - and again I want to keep this on the agenda - we have had a week of stock market collapses as a consequence of American Banks admitting hugh losses - but we never seem to hear anything of our local Banks North & South. Surely they must have some exposure to what is happening right now?

I don’t know what other member’s experiences are but in my area the price of development land seems to have collapsed. At the peak of the boom local development land was fetching £1.1 - £1.5 million per acre depending on the specific site / specific location. Apparently you would now be lucky to find a buyer at £650,000 per acre in the current market (no one seems to have any ready cash). Some of the big boys went on a land grab and bought up as much development land as they could get their hands on that that the bank would lend against. Some were even speculating that a price of £2 million an acre was within grasp. These individuals obviously thought “trees did grow to the sky” and that the growth of the price of developmental was not only linear but exponential (which it was for a very short period). Things came tumbling down when the banks started to disagree with the hype merchants hysterical over-valuation of the land and refused to lend against the price agreed by the developers (although speculators would be a better choice of name for these individuals). The banks had never turned down these guys before and they truly thought that they were in fact superhuman and above the basic laws of economic faced by the ordinary mortal. By this time they could not believe what they were being told. The sky eventually fell in with the disclosure of sub prime lending in the US and the subsequent credit crunch. Apparently these gentlemen have now had the credit tap well and truly turned off by the banks. From what I hear the banks have informed their managers to get the books balanced and deal with some of their over exposure in this particular area. For those on the receiving end, the glory days of cosy relationships on first name terms with the bank managers has become the somewhat cold detached lender / borrower model it should always have been. The big question is what happens next. Will the banks foreclose on these individuals? Where does that leave the banks? I presume if they have been lending against the very high prices at the peak of the boom they will be facing large losses (or write downs – I think this is the correct term). Some of the major US banks have been burned by their reckless lending. Are the Irish banks in for a taste of their very own sub-prime lending?

All replies welcome. Especially from those who understand the banking system and the pressures that are applied to local branch managers to balance their books.

Okay then - it's the one that begins with Anglo and ends in Bank ALLEGEDLY!

For full disclosure, we hold a short position in the above stock. This is neither an offer nor the solicitation of an offer to sell or purchase any investment. My view is based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but I make no representation and accept no responsibility or liability as to its completeness or accuracy. Do your own research.

You are comparing apples and oranges by comparing Irish Banks to Paragon or Northern Rock. The lending model and loan books are completely different. Unless you can tell me something other than some having a larger proportional weighting within construction then there is nothing valid. All banks still retain AAA status and these are reviewed quarterly or bi-monthly. Anglo wrote off all its subprime at €51m in its last profit declaration in December [read its last prospectus]. Profits net were well over €1bn and €700m new depoist per month. All Irish banks have sub prime of sorts but most of it is now IMO within managed funds or pension funds. This credit crunch is over rated, although severe enough like previous shocks it is not catastrophic. The world banking system writes off $800bn per year if memory serves me right. IMO most subprime is locked, as junk assets etc within most pension funds. In thirty years time the markets will have moved enough to recapitalise pension earning to allow them to become ancient history [such small weighting within funds]. Since the 1970's I heard every apocalyptic prediction within the markets that I care not to mention. None in the end created a jot of a difference in real terms. Money still will make the world go round, maybe at a slower speed for now.

I grant you one thing in ROI. One bank is more exposed than others somewhat. But I certainly will not name.




America according to most rationale observers will slip into mild recession. This will ease commodity pressures apart from Softs. As UK plc has sold all its assets, it may fair worse, but not cataclysmic. This is opinion although no one can be definitive unless there is someone out there that can predict the future?

I hate to quote myself but I can’t be bothered typing in the whole thing again. I had just posted the above comment on "Developers in trouble - Big fish get fried" thread when I spotted this thread. I think the above points are relevant in this section. i think this is where the Irish Banks very own sub-prime lending scandal will be uncovered. Most home owners will fight to keep their homes at all costs. Banks have not been completely feckless lending to home owners, however they have been very guilty when lending to developers especially some of the medium to large individuals.

Nice tip Chicken. Can you recommend any good spread betting sites?

I don't have first hand experience of any - I am allowed to trade on my own account but there's a lot of restrictions and it's better for me not to so there's no conflict of interest. I do see City Index advertising on Bloomberg TV all the time if you're stuck for names.

American recession will turn in either 2008 or early 2009. Please no mad posting contrary, without some facts to back your case.

... so you can post your opinions, 'without facts to back up your case.'

...but we can't?

Edit: you honestly think it may turn this year? They have only just admited that they have a recession. I think you underestimate the effects of the credit crunch and the amount of debt out there. We shall see soon.

Wonder when our recession is going to start? Or maybe you think we can avoid one? Which internet site did you buy your economics degree from?

Sorry md, should have clarified - I work for a hedge fund so we do it directly through market makers. I don't PA trade so I can't recommend anybody from my personal experience.

Yours are all good points, especially the advice that short-selling is not for the faint-hearted individual.

I don't disagree with you on the prospective timing of widespread buying opportunities - it's just that my firm is looking to profit in the intervening period and that means shorting a lot of stocks.

Chicken if they are that easy to short then they are overvalued in the first place?