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Papitogrande
If so please identify, at some point I want to buy here but the only people I have to discuss it with own their places, so tend to be of a view that it's a special place that will be unaffected by any Hpc
frankief
I know Rooney, Ronaldo, and Ferdinand have got 'cribs' round there.
Nice houses and silly prices, but not everybody gets to live next door to a footballer.
I hear they have some good roasting parties - if you get invited. wink.gif
mitchbux
QUOTE (Papitogrande @ Jan 4 2008, 08:25 PM) *
If so please identify, at some point I want to buy here but the only people I have to discuss it with own their places, so tend to be of a view that it's a special place that will be unaffected by any Hpc


Being one of those places people aspire to live in, no doubt several home owners in the area have taken out huge mortgages to do just that.

Whilst there are some serious earners in the area, they can't all be as recession proof as the Man U boys.

It's not all big houses for the seriously rich either, so the area will not be immune.

Bramhall seemed to have ground to a halt when I last looked, which was the end of September. Not sure if that is indicative, but it's has always seemed to be, as an area, second choice for those that can't afford to be Rooney's neighbour.
M21er
Hi,

QUOTE (mitchbux @ Jan 4 2008, 11:12 PM) *
Being one of those places people aspire to live in, no doubt several home owners in the area have taken out huge mortgages to do just that.

....



.. and some people are stuggling to pay those massive mortgages. This Wilmslow repossession is a modern 3 bed detached property. Be interesting to see what the neighbours think. Lots of twitching of the net curtains!

Pugh Auction 6 December 2007 Lot 148

Regards

M21er

Edited: To remove comment on other area.
shippers
Of course apart from footballers Wilmslow is seen to be in the Manchester stockbroker belt, so I don't know what effects a financial services crunch might have there, especiialy given the staganation in BTL in Manchester City Centre

Don't know any more about Wilmslow, but I do have some thoughts about Chester.

Chester house prices went into boom pretty much I think because of the local business park. However the major employers on the business park are finance companies dealing with credit cards, major HQ's in fact

http://www.chesterbusinesspark.com/Pages/Occupiers.html

Has a good description of the occupants of the park

It wouldn't surprise me if Chester's prices went rocketing down again as those organisations, especially MBNA, scale back due to the credit crunch
mitchbux
QUOTE (M21er @ Jan 5 2008, 09:46 PM) *
.. and some people are stuggling to pay those massive mortgages. This Wilmslow repossession is a modern 3 bed detached property. Be interesting to see what the neighbours think. Lots of twitching of the net curtains!

Pugh Auction 6 December 2007 Lot 148

Regards

M21er


Makes me chuckle that it's "Wilmslow" it's nearer Dean Row/Handforth on the map.

The £250K guide price is what is was bought for in Oct 2003, so at the moment I would have thought they stand a chance of achieving it, still it'll be an interesting one to watch.

It wouldn't be my cup of tea. The A34 (dual carriage way) one side, another busy road on the other, and the noise of Manchester Airport overhead, all that racket through the flimsy new-build walls. Nice!


M21er
QUOTE (mitchbux @ Jan 6 2008, 02:20 PM) *
...
The £250K guide price is what is was bought for in Oct 2003, so at the moment I would have thought they stand a chance of achieving it, still it'll be an interesting one to watch...


MB,

Well predicted!

I've just checked on the Auction Results

Pugh Auction 6 December 2007 Results ( Scroll down for 148 )

Sold for £290k

Don't know the area well enough to be able to comment on the price.

Regards

M21er
mitchbux
290K.

Ouch, someones caught a falling knife in my opinion.
Papitogrande
I agree totally mitch, £290k is at least £90k more than anyone should have paid for that. It's in Handforth Dean, end of. I used to rent a place there 5 years ago and we'd say it was Wilmslow but never believed it ourselves - very close to one of the roughest council estates in the north west.

I live in actual Wilmslow now, rent a place for far less than an interest only mortgage would be. Alas I feel that this area may largely immune to HPC which sucks, we've got a kid on the way and I would like to live in our own home, but whilst it's so much cheaper to rent and prices aren't going up then I don't feel it's justified.


Red Kharma
QUOTE (Papitogrande @ Jan 7 2008, 04:42 PM) *
I agree totally mitch, £290k is at least £90k more than anyone should have paid for that. It's in Handforth Dean, end of. I used to rent a place there 5 years ago and we'd say it was Wilmslow but never believed it ourselves - very close to one of the roughest council estates in the north west.

I live in actual Wilmslow now, rent a place for far less than an interest only mortgage would be. Alas I feel that this area may largely immune to HPC which sucks, we've got a kid on the way and I would like to live in our own home, but whilst it's so much cheaper to rent and prices aren't going up then I don't feel it's justified.


Hi Papitogrande, I've owned and rented and brought up children in and around that area and know it very well. It appears you know it well too.

As with most areas it is a very mixed bag, with bought for cash footballer/new money new-build "mansions" at the top end and ex council owned semis at the other and everything in between.

To the extent that the vast majority of home prices will be supported by over-geared mortgages they will follow the rest of the country if there is an HPC. They did in 91-95 and they will now. In nominal terms my average 3bed semi fell from around 85k at the peak in '89 to around £65k when we traded up in '96. That was Bramhall.

Having said that the better areas will also tend to be where people want to live and so will imo not fall as far or as fast as the more vulnerable less affluent areas. As an example, Hale and Bowdon for instance has accelerated during the last 10/15 years faster than Bramhall. Everything is relative.

I am renting in these areas and have been for the last 3 years. I see nothing to warrant buying, from a financial view, for a long time yet. My rent is the equivalent of less than 3% of purchase price when you factor in maintenance charges and free water. So until rents have at least doubled or prices have halved or a combination thereof, renting is an absolute no-brainer, kids or no kids.

p.s. that house depicted as you know is on a fairly grim "commuter" estate with no local community within walking distance to speak of. If I were buying when the market looks to be bottoming out I would focus on those areas where you don't rely on a car, and have good local schools within walking distance for you kids to get to school. That estate above would be ghastly for that. This would include: Bramhall, Cheadle Hulme some parts of Macclefield some parts of Knutsford, some parts of central Wilmslow, Hale or Bowdon. If you cannot afford those areas then I would steer clear of South Manchester altogether. Today you could get a much nicer house, in a much better area 10 minutes walk from the centre of Bramhall for instance than that one pictured for £250-300k. I have been watching several excellent houses which have been on the market for over 12 months with only tiny price drops, which I believe are set to fall much further over the next 18 months or so. Keep saving, be patient.




mitchbux
QUOTE (Papitogrande @ Jan 7 2008, 04:42 PM) *
very close to one of the roughest council estates in the north west.


Peel Hall? I know someone who needed a taxi out of there one night, she discovered it's a cabbie no-go area.




Papitogrande
Cheers Red, At 30 I'm a bit too young to have experienced the last crash at the sharp end, so it's interesting to hear that this area dropped then. Cheadle Hulme appeals too, a friend of mine grew up there and he thought it was great.

I wondered what your thoughts were on al the development that is/has been going on in Alderley, Prestbury etc. It seems to have been the fashion lately to buy up oldish houses for a million quid or so then knock them down and build a new 6 bed mock-mansion. Personally I think they look awful but they're priced around the £3m mark. IMO these things will tank.
Red Kharma
QUOTE (Papitogrande @ Jan 7 2008, 10:08 PM) *
Cheers Red, At 30 I'm a bit too young to have experienced the last crash at the sharp end, so it's interesting to hear that this area dropped then. Cheadle Hulme appeals too, a friend of mine grew up there and he thought it was great.

I wondered what your thoughts were on al the development that is/has been going on in Alderley, Prestbury etc. It seems to have been the fashion lately to buy up oldish houses for a million quid or so then knock them down and build a new 6 bed mock-mansion. Personally I think they look awful but they're priced around the £3m mark. IMO these things will tank.


Both Cheadle Hulme and Bramhall are easy for getting into Manchester and onto the M/way network but still have quite good local "centres". Good schools and plenty of family housing and mixed aged communities.

There is still a big development boom in knocking down older but mostly post-war houses in prime residential areas and replacing them with mock mansions yep. I'm familiar with some of the Prestbury develpments, but also Hale/Bowdon. I have been following these very closely in Bowdon in particular (because it is closest to me) for signs of a turn-down but so far no sign of trouble. In fact there have been 4 plots sold, sites boarded up and houses either demolished or in the process of within the last 2 months on just one road. All are 5/6 bed 1950/60s houses on maybe 1/3 acre plots advertised for around 950k/1.50m. All being replaced with 4 storey (inc gym/pool/media room basements etc) "mansions". In the last 2 years these have been selling for £2m/3m. I am going to keep a very close eye on how these are marketed, but expect prices at that level to hold up. When you're playing for say, United or City and getting £100k a week you don't care about price as much as location, and there are maybe a dozen roads in a 20 mile radius where these guys all want to live. All the other swinging d*cks want these areas too. But in the 200/750k market I am confident prices will fall. In fact I've also noticed that the luxury apartment market in these areas is already sticking. Have a look at rightmove and propertsnake for Bowdon/Hale/Wilmslow/Alderley flats in the 350k+ range. There are tons of them, and quite a few have been around for ages some with reductions, some not. I can't see £1m flat conversions in Bowdon hanging onto those prices. I'm amazed they sold in the first place tbh, but then it ain't my money. Here's an example of what I'm talking about:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-153...=1&tr_t=buy
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-121...=1&tr_t=buy

This has been on the market for over 12 months I think
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-951...=1&tr_t=buy


This one they're trying to sell off-plan. £2million
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-185...=2&tr_t=buy

This one was sold just before xmas and is now rubble. So the asking price was £1.5m just for the 1.3rd acre site basically. If memory serves a well known 60s United striker owned until recently.
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-877...=2&tr_t=buy

and so on.....the market for these type of re-developments seems very closed. There are a small number of bentley driving developers who work closely with the agents and a similarly small number of local architects to either re-model or rebuild. Many of these on the best sites are sold, site-cleared, built and back on the market within 9-12 months. It will be interesting to see how thes prices change and whether the availability of finance will affect them, or whether they are able to self-fund and so stay immune. I honestly don't know the answer to that, but we will find out soon enough. Many are being either built to commission (like Rooneys) or the agents have a very good idea of the clients who will eventually buy them.

RK
Bootsox
QUOTE (Papitogrande @ Jan 7 2008, 10:08 PM) *
Cheers Red, At 30 I'm a bit too young to have experienced the last crash at the sharp end, so it's interesting to hear that this area dropped then. Cheadle Hulme appeals too, a friend of mine grew up there and he thought it was great.

I lived in Cheadle Hulme in the 90s, bought a smart, modest semi for £70k in late 1990 (so probably missed the worst of the crash) and sold in 1998 for £83k. I note the property sold again in 2004 for £180k.

So, from a personal point of view, I probably never quite went into negative equity but at the same time prices took an awful long time to recover. In fact, properties used to linger on the market for years.

People think that every other person in these areas is a Man U player but that is simply not the case. The vast majority are just ordinary working people. I would also suggest that, by now, many of the jobs lie in the service/finance industry and will be particularly prone to a downturn.

Regards

Sox
ManorHouseOwner
ill keep it simple. the area is FUKCED.

these areas (and "equivalents" say, in Surrey) always fare the worst in any crash. They have no value as an area in itself based on location or beauty it is purely fueled as 'the place to be'. when people stop masturbating how much their mortars are worth such 'value' kicks harder in reverse. its doomed.
Papitogrande
QUOTE (ManorHouseOwner @ Jan 8 2008, 10:43 AM) *
ill keep it simple. the area is FUKCED.

these areas (and "equivalents" say, in Surrey) always fare the worst in any crash. They have no value as an area in itself based on location or beauty it is purely fueled as 'the place to be'. when people stop masturbating how much their mortars are worth such 'value' kicks harder in reverse. its doomed.


I hope you are right sir
I'M WITH STUPID
I live in south manchester - all the above observations are true - whether Wilmslow is right for you depends on your reasons for buying - yes its a salubrious white area at the southern extreme of the south manchester conurbation.

what put me off Wilmslow personally were the school league tables - well below those in neighbouring Trafford which regularly features in the national top 10 - if you dont have/plan a family then Wilmslow will probably offer you the lifestyle you are looking for - the most vulnerable housing stock will be the proliferation of identikit new build family homes along the A34 by-pass and peripheral areas - best avoid.
Nomadd
QUOTE (ManorHouseOwner @ Jan 8 2008, 10:43 AM) *
ill keep it simple. the area is FUKCED.

these areas (and "equivalents" say, in Surrey) always fare the worst in any crash. They have no value as an area in itself based on location or beauty it is purely fueled as 'the place to be'. when people stop masturbating how much their mortars are worth such 'value' kicks harder in reverse. its doomed.


Couldn't agree more. Just finished a contract in Knutsford and couldn't believe how stupidly overpriced a whole section of South Manchester had become. I'm now back in London, as that's where the money is to be made (and I'm renting cheaply, of course.)

Local wages in Manchester are even more out of step with local house prices than they are in London. And Man U. doesn't have 500,000 players on it's payroll, as some people seem to think.

Most of the stuff I've watched on Rightmove for the last year in the South of Manchester has hardly moved, most of it having being stuck on the market for over a year. This area is in for a large downfall IMHO over the next few years. I'm just gonna keep saving my pennies here in London until those falls bite.

Nomadd

I'M WITH STUPID
QUOTE (Nomadd @ Jan 9 2008, 02:49 PM) *
Local wages in Manchester are even more out of step with local house prices than they are in London.


laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
Rachman
QUOTE (ManorHouseOwner @ Jan 8 2008, 10:43 AM) *
ill keep it simple. the area is FUKCED.

these areas (and "equivalents" say, in Surrey) always fare the worst in any crash. They have no value as an area in itself based on location or beauty it is purely fueled as 'the place to be'. when people stop masturbating how much their mortars are worth such 'value' kicks harder in reverse. its doomed.
I disagree. In an upmarket everything sells at a higher price. In a downmarket there is a 'flight to quality' - people want to live in these areas and their prices hold up better. Witness last time - in London Kensington and Chelsea finished 60% up at its lowest. In that downmarket quality and desirable still sells, the crap does not (or does not unless the price falls enough to make it desirable).

Would you rather have a 4 bed house in Winsford or Bowdon ? Which would you pay more for ?

Genuinely, you believe that the falls will be bigger and that places where people want to live will be more than in places where people are forced to live (because they can't afford the nice places).

Do you aspire to owning a large house in Cheshire or Surrey in a good area perhaps ?


Red Kharma
QUOTE (Nomadd @ Jan 9 2008, 02:49 PM) *
Couldn't agree more. Just finished a contract in Knutsford and couldn't believe how stupidly overpriced a whole section of South Manchester had become. I'm now back in London, as that's where the money is to be made (and I'm renting cheaply, of course.)

Local wages in Manchester are even more out of step with local house prices than they are in London. And Man U. doesn't have 500,000 players on it's payroll, as some people seem to think.

Most of the stuff I've watched on Rightmove for the last year in the South of Manchester has hardly moved, most of it having being stuck on the market for over a year. This area is in for a large downfall IMHO over the next few years. I'm just gonna keep saving my pennies here in London until those falls bite.

Nomadd


I've lived in and around this area for the best part of 50 years.

I'm sorry but you're just plain wrong. The original poster asked specifically about Prestbury/Wilmslow and in particular the effect of a crash on the high-end new-build properties, which is why I included some that I am familiar with. Working in Knutsford for a while and then throwing around comments about "wages in Manchester" and "london" is pointless. "wages in Manchester" have never and will never have much bearing on the prices of high-end houses in Prestbury, Wilmslow, Alderley Edge, Hale and Bowdon. It is like comparing Hackney with Chelsea and Kensington. At the lower end then of course prices are related more directly to the economy. But average house prices of around £210k compare much more favourably to average wages here than they do in London.
frankief
QUOTE (Red Kharma @ Jan 9 2008, 10:01 PM) *
It is like comparing Hackney with Chelsea and Kensington.

Very true. Wilmslow, Hale, Knutsford, Alderbury is not South Manchester it's Cheshire countryside.
South Manchester is Wythenshawe.
I can see why prices are higher in Bowdon and houses will always will be in demand there.
Nomadd
QUOTE (Red Kharma @ Jan 9 2008, 10:01 PM) *
I've lived in and around this area for the best part of 50 years.

I'm sorry but you're just plain wrong. The original poster asked specifically about Prestbury/Wilmslow and in particular the effect of a crash on the high-end new-build properties, which is why I included some that I am familiar with. Working in Knutsford for a while and then throwing around comments about "wages in Manchester" and "london" is pointless.


Hey, that's great - I've lived around the area on-and-off for just under 45 years. My first job was in Altrincham in 1979. Guess that doesn't make you such an expert after all...

And I'll quote your own words back to you: "I'm sorry but you're just plain wrong."

Your claim that "wages in Manchester" somehow don't relate to "house prices in Manchester" is just plain laughable. Look at the prices those same "protected" properties you keep blabbing about in South Manchester were just 10 years ago: about 50% or less of what they are today. The idea that a doubling or trebling of house prices in South Manchester over the last 10 years or so - and when local wages are totally out of whack - is somehow "sustainable" is just crazy (the sort of talk I'd expect from an E.A., in fact.)

My Bro-in-law has been property developing in the South Manchester/Cheshire area for the last 15 years - and he's moved out of the game in the last year or two as it's become a waste of effort. I'd believe his opinion much more than yours. And the static/falling prices I see on Rightmove, plus the fact that I'm seeing the same properties linger on the market for over a year, adds even more credence to his/my views. Just because you've "lived here for nearly 50 years" doesn't add any weight to your claims.

South Manchester has risen just as sharply - if not more so - than most other areas in the UK. The idea that the local economy is going to support such insane prices is just plain wrong. I've remember spending the last few Xmas holidays with my folks in Manchester, and all the talk was of people snapping up city centre flats as "the BBC is moving here and we'll all be rich"; this Xmas the tone had changed, and those flats are just a fast track to losing money. And "posh areas" like the one's you mention are subject to the same economics - if the work (and money) is elsewhere, that's where the people will be. And that ain't South Manchester.

BTW: You might want to watch the couple from Prestbury on Location, Location a year or so ago - they were staggered by the huge leap in price their old house had undergone in just 3-4 years (more than doubled in price.) To claim that this is sustainable is mad. Because if it was, there wouldn't be so much property "sticking" in all of South Manchester's "posh belt" for the last year or more...

And if you still believe that these areas are immune, try propertysnake. And remember, the big falls of 2008-2010 have yet to kick in, reversing the madness of the last 10 years. Still, even now:

Prestbury:
£850,000 (DOWN 10% from £950,000) Heybridge Lane
£650,000 (DOWN 15% from £765,000) Yew Tree Lane
£725,000 (DOWN 9% from £799,950) Birtles Road

Wilmslow:
£1,600,000 (DOWN 8% from £1,750,000)
£249,950 (DOWN 15% from £294,950) Plot 12 Hawthorne House
£249,950 (DOWN 13% from £289,995) Holly Cottage

Hale:
£995,000 (DOWN 13% from £1,145,000) Warren Drive, Hale Barns
£1,065,000 (DOWN 9% from £1,175,000) Shay Lane
£2,100,000 (DOWN 7% from £2,275,000) Rappax Road, Hale

Oh, and look at the "days on market" for some of this stuff as well!

Like I said, I keep a very close eye on the South Manchester/Cheshire market, as that's where I will *eventually* buy. But for now, I'll stick to making cash in London and just buy once the market has crashed some more: another 5 years until we hit the bottom, IMHO.

Cheers,

Nomadd

EDIT: Typo.
I'M WITH STUPID
and neither are you

your observations that prices have doubled in the last 10 years and that developers are finding it a 'waste of effort' applies anywhere in the uk - the city centre market has collapsed like everywhere else - but grimy deansgate is a long way from the tree lined avenues of north cheshire

south manchester prices started from a higher base and have risen proportionately to other areas of the north west (£300k for a terrace in prestwich dont sound like a bargain to me )

those who have half an acre in wilmslow and prestbury do not earn 'manchester wages' - they have their own businesses or are at the top of their game in medicine, law and finance (london does not have a monopoly on hospitals or law and accoutancy firms)

enjoy your london bedsit (oh and your london wage smile.gif )
Red Kharma
QUOTE (Nomadd @ Jan 11 2008, 10:39 AM) *
Your claim that "wages in Manchester" somehow don't relate to "house prices in Manchester" is just plain laughable. Look at the prices those same "protected" properties you keep blabbing about in South Manchester were just 10 years ago: about 50% or less of what they are today. The idea that a doubling or trebling of house prices in South Manchester over the last 10 years or so - and when local wages are totally out of whack - is somehow "sustainable" is just crazy (the sort of talk I'd expect from an E.A., in fact.)

EDIT: Typo.


If I had claimed that then I'd agree with you. I didn't. You raised it. I said that prices at the top end in the areas the OP was interested in were not realted to general "wages in manchester". They're not. I didn't say that prices in those areas wouldn't fall or that the rises of the last 10 years were sustainable.

You were saying that prices in Knutsford were crazy and out of proportion to "wages in manchester". I was pointing out that is similar to comapring wages and prices in Hackney to prices in Chelsea and Kensington.

My point was that demand for the prestigious areas will always be greater than for everywhere else, and prices will outperform the market relatively. Just because your brother in law can't make any money developing anymore probably means he's not been making a real return in the first place. He has only been making profits due to the increase in land prices, not due to any particular skill in adding value.

You can go back over 100 years, and you will find that Bowdon, Hale, Wilmslow, Alderley Edge and Prestbury have maintained their demand and appeal. Comparing city centre "executive" new builds with Alderley Edge or Bowdon is just irrelevant. I have already agreed with you that average prices in South Manchester will fall in line with anywhere else, but over time prices in the exclusive areas will outperform. They always have and they always will. Your expert property developer bro in law who can only make money in a rising market with easy cheap finance and has had now had to quit because the market is cooling hasn't persuaded me otherwise. wink.gif

p.s. you've not included any links to the property snake houses you mention, which would have been helpful but I suspect they are either developers trying to get out or they were over-priced speculative prices "waiting for the market to catch up" which you get everywhere. I agree that you should go work in London and you will find lots of cheap property when you come back in 5 years. Just not in the locations mentioned.
Nomadd
QUOTE (I'M WITH STUPID @ Jan 11 2008, 01:02 PM) *
and neither are you

your observations that prices have doubled in the last 10 years and that developers are finding it a 'waste of effort' applies anywhere in the uk - the city centre market has collapsed like everywhere else - but grimy deansgate is a long way from the tree lined avenues of north cheshire

south manchester prices started from a higher base and have risen proportionately to other areas of the north west (£300k for a terrace in prestwich dont sound like a bargain to me )

those who have half an acre in wilmslow and prestbury do not earn 'manchester wages' - they have their own businesses or are at the top of their game in medicine, law and finance (london does not have a monopoly on hospitals or law and accoutancy firms)

enjoy your london bedsit (oh and your london wage smile.gif )



Well, I hope you all the best in your future as an EA.

And in reply to "enjoy your london bedsit (oh and your london wage smile.gif", well... The bedsit is a nice 3 bed semi in a decent area at a VERY attractive price - cheaper than I could rent in the NW at present; and the "wage" is actaully a new contract with a Bank in Docklands (£675 / day)...and I've been MD of my own company for the last 18.5 years, and doing very nicely thank you. You, on the other hand, just sound bitter.

So, just carry on dreaming that South Manchester/Cheshire are enveloped in "magic pixie dust" and therefore their absurd increase in house prices is somehow "immune" from the coming falls. What a joke - oh, and the Rightmove/PropertySnake stats prove that. See you in a couple of years after even more substantial falls. :-)

Nomadd
Papitogrande
QUOTE (Nomadd @ Jan 11 2008, 02:44 PM) *
Well, I hope you all the best in your future as an EA.

And in reply to "enjoy your london bedsit (oh and your london wage smile.gif", well... The bedsit is a nice 3 bed semi in a decent area at a VERY attractive price - cheaper than I could rent in the NW at present; and the "wage" is actaully a new contract with a Bank in Docklands (£675 / day)...and I've been MD of my own company for the last 18.5 years, and doing very nicely thank you. You, on the other hand, just sound bitter.
Nomadd


Do you know how that makes you sound? I wouldn't dream of telling people my earnings and status because it's just incredibly crass. No doubt you will assume this is because I earn very little, which you are quite welcome to do.
Nomadd
QUOTE (Papitogrande @ Jan 11 2008, 03:16 PM) *
Do you know how that makes you sound? I wouldn't dream of telling people my earnings and status because it's just incredibly crass. No doubt you will assume this is because I earn very little, which you are quite welcome to do.


Do you know how *your post* makes you sound? Especially when I was replying directly to a comment thrown at me, whilst you were just jumping in for the sake of it - with absolutely nothing to add.

Really, how childish do you think "No doubt you will assume this is because I earn very little, which you are quite welcome to do" sounds? It sounds, er, "crass".

Please, give your parents their Internet connection back and return to your schoolwork.

Nomadd
Rachman
QUOTE (I'M WITH STUPID @ Jan 11 2008, 01:02 PM) *
those who have half an acre in wilmslow and prestbury do not earn 'manchester wages' - they have their own businesses or are at the top of their game in medicine, law and finance (london does not have a monopoly on hospitals or law and accoutancy firms)
the problem is that even those on their way up can't afford it - the average junior partner at a Manchester law/;accountancy or similar firm is on under £80K and even at the big firms it's in the low £100Ks. You ain't buying half an acre of Wilmslow or Prestbury for that.

I left Manchester (from one of those jobs) for precisely that reason (as a junior). The money is at least triple in London (for 50% more work). The wages in Manchester are rubbish - they won't buy you a good house in Altrincham, let alone Hale or Bowdon - and the numbers earning £300K plus to buy these places are tiny (and they were already there in 2000).
daiking
Bringing things back on track, where do you suggest the best place to live (south of manchester) where you will be able to get a nice family house for £100K cash in 5 years time?
Nomadd
QUOTE (Rachman @ Jan 11 2008, 03:43 PM) *
the problem is that even those on their way up can't afford it - the average junior partner at a Manchester law/;accountancy or similar firm is on under £80K and even at the big firms it's in the low £100Ks. You ain't buying half an acre of Wilmslow or Prestbury for that.

I left Manchester (from one of those jobs) for precisely that reason (as a junior). The money is at least triple in London (for 50% more work). The wages in Manchester are rubbish - they won't buy you a good house in Altrincham, let alone Hale or Bowdon - and the numbers earning £300K plus to buy these places are tiny (and they were already there in 2000).


Thank you. At last, a man talking sense in this thread.

I did exactly the same as you - I left as I could earn substantially more money elsewhere.

I just can't understand the muppets on this thread - some of whom claim to have known the area for "50 years" - who seem to think it's immune to price falls. Yes, Hale/Prestbury/Bowden/etc. are very nice and are never going to be "cheap", but what what these posters seem to forget is that rich people STAY rich by not paying over the odds. And at the moment, that's resulting in properties staying stuck on the market for exceptionally long spans of time. Those with £500,000-£4,000,000 to spend aren't daft enough to throw it away on an overpriced property that will have dropped in value in the next few years. Remember, 30% of £4 million is still a big number. :-)

Cheers,

Nomadd
Nomadd
QUOTE (daiking @ Jan 11 2008, 03:48 PM) *
Bringing things back on track, where do you suggest the best place to live (south of manchester) where you will be able to get a nice family house for £100K cash in 5 years time?


Well, assuming you are serious, I don't think £100k is going to cut it - and certainly not in the areas mentioned in this thread!

If you want to be close to the city centre, but still far enough away to forget about it, then Altrincham, Timperley, Sale, Brooklands or similar are decent enough. Either that, or go MUCH further out and live with the commute (better still, find a job outside of Manchester.)

Nomadd
Rachman
QUOTE (daiking @ Jan 11 2008, 03:48 PM) *
Bringing things back on track, where do you suggest the best place to live (south of manchester) where you will be able to get a nice family house for £100K cash in 5 years time?
Ther won't be any. Those days HAVE gone. Even if we see falls, a family house in an area where your kids won't be being squired at 12 years old and where they won't learn a poor attempt at Jamaican street patois is going to be more than £100K - it was even before prices rose.

We'll he heading north in about 5 years. I am expecting to be paying 10 times that for a nice family house in the good parts of Hale, Bowdon Wilmslow etc.
Nomadd
QUOTE (Rachman @ Jan 11 2008, 04:06 PM) *
We'll he heading north in about 5 years. I am expecting to be paying 10 times that for a nice family house in the good parts of Hale, Bowdon Wilmslow etc.


Exactly the same position as me. Still, at lest that'll be £300,000-£500,000 LESS than you'd be paying now. :-)

Nomadd
daiking
To Nomadd & Rachman,

I was serious (its not my money), I wasn't expecting Wilmslow and all of S Cheshire to fall to £100K but auction/in need of modernisation sales in some of the other areas mentioned may become comparatively cheap for a cash buyer. I was only looking at 3-4 bedroom houses with a parking space and a garden - not to be in the next edition of "Cribs". In 5 years, there may even be a little more cash to play with.

I currently live near MCR city centre and work in Warrington but the S. MCR area is good for me for other reasons. I'm an engineer, my job only creates wealth, it doesn't magically magnify it so I'm not on a mega-bucks like you guys wink.gif
Nomadd
QUOTE (daiking @ Jan 11 2008, 05:29 PM) *
To Nomadd & Rachman,

I was serious (its not my money), I wasn't expecting Wilmslow and all of S Cheshire to fall to £100K but auction/in need of modernisation sales in some of the other areas mentioned may become comparatively cheap for a cash buyer. I was only looking at 3-4 bedroom houses with a parking space and a garden - not to be in the next edition of "Cribs". In 5 years, there may even be a little more cash to play with.

I currently live near MCR city centre and work in Warrington but the S. MCR area is good for me for other reasons. I'm an engineer, my job only creates wealth, it doesn't magically magnify it so I'm not on a mega-bucks like you guys wink.gif


I had a look at some cheaper stuff - all comparative here - for a friend just before Xmas. He wanted something pretty much complete to walk into. I was quite surprised at what he'd get for £200k in and around Sale/Timperley. They are pretty nice areas - although you have to be careful exactly where you choose - but £200k or just over would certainly get you a nice 3 bed semi with offstreet parking.

I don't see any reason why over the next few years you couldn't pick up something nice in the £150k-160k bracket at auction that needed a bit of work on it. It's just your figure of £100k was pushing it. The house next door to the one I used to live in 40 years ago recently sold for £130k, and that was ex-council, in a not too great an area, and with no offstreet parking. I and my folks thought the people who bought it must have been insane! Those places will almost certainly fall to less than £100k over the next few years, but you still wouldn't want to live there!

Get saving those pennies, and I'm sure something nice awaits you in a few years time.

Nomadd

Ps. I'm an engineer by trade, but left that life behind me when all our manufacturing left these shores 25 years ago. Mind you, I'm now in I.T., and that seems to be going the same route. Time for a change of career again! Thank god I don't have any debts - especially a huge mortgage around my neck. :-)


Rachman
Even if it's a fixer upper (to use US vernacular), it's still going to be well over a ton (to get back to English) for anything anywhere you want to be. I looked at a couple to do up in Altrincham to do up - they were basket cases (needed £50K-70K on them) to be good houses - your standard 3bed 1930s semis - properly built and extendable at the side over the garage if you wanted. Proper houses.

They made no sense - BUT, even going back and looking at 2001 sale prices - which we won't get back to, then they were £150K-200K then. If you are heading out and you are happy to compromise on schools, main roads etc. I think you may be successful but it's just not going to be pick up a family house for £100K (my first house was £141K in early 2000 - and that was in Bolton - it was 'just' a 3 bed semi that was 'tired' - that is now '£350k') - that;s not going to drop back nearly 75%. It may go back to £250K in a worst case, but not lower than that (in my view) before the speculators are back in).

If I looked more Heaton Mersey and towards Stockport or towards Urmston et al, I can see that being feasible, but south Manchester and the better areas, whilst I wish you luck, I think you'll be fortunate (just don't buy ex-council - you WILL regret it in a down market (generally)).

[For every strapped seller, there are also several people with money to 'invest'/throw away..... once the price is right, so come on down]
daiking
Bugger, will still need a mortgage anywhere decent dry.gif
Red Kharma
QUOTE (Nomadd @ Jan 11 2008, 03:59 PM) *
I just can't understand the muppets on this thread - some of whom claim to have known the area for "50 years" - who seem to think it's immune to price falls. Yes, Hale/Prestbury/Bowden/etc. are very nice and are never going to be "cheap", but what what these posters seem to forget is that rich people STAY rich by not paying over the odds. And at the moment, that's resulting in properties staying stuck on the market for exceptionally long spans of time. Those with £500,000-£4,000,000 to spend aren't daft enough to throw it away on an overpriced property that will have dropped in value in the next few years. Remember, 30% of £4 million is still a big number. :-)

Cheers,

Nomadd


Since you appear to be calling me a muppet I shall reply (although forgive me if I don't stoop to your level of personal abuse):-

Please quote my post where I have said this area is immune to price falls?

I could give you the addresses of perhaps a dozen houses on 3 roads that have sold within a few weeks of being marketed for around £1m, been demolished and now have foundations in. So apparently those with that money to spend ARE daft enough to throw it away on over-priced property that will have dropped in value in the next few years. Whodda thunk it huh?

But by all means come back in 5 years with your money earned in London and snap up a bargain.....But don't hold your breath....Oh and watch out for those cost-cutting banks looking to save on their £675 a day IT contractors (Personally I wouldn't pay an IT contractor £675 a day who can't even read what is written in front of them and resorts to personal insults, and I've employed quite a few, but hey, I'm old-fashioned like that) ....I believe even MDs of their own companies might not be immune rolleyes.gif
Bootsox
Actually I am not quite sure how we got talking about the "upper end" of property prices when the original and a subsequent poster seemed to be interested in the low(ish) 100ks.

Anyhow, I supect at the "upper end" there may be significant reliance on family wealth not just wage earning. Otherwise the sums do not really add up.

Sox
Red Kharma
QUOTE (Nomadd @ Jan 9 2008, 02:49 PM) *
Couldn't agree more. Just finished a contract in Knutsford and couldn't believe how stupidly overpriced a whole section of South Manchester had become. I'm now back in London, as that's where the money is to be made (and I'm renting cheaply, of course.)

Local wages in Manchester are even more out of step with local house prices than they are in London. And Man U. doesn't have 500,000 players on it's payroll, as some people seem to think.

Most of the stuff I've watched on Rightmove for the last year in the South of Manchester has hardly moved, most of it having being stuck on the market for over a year. This area is in for a large downfall IMHO over the next few years. I'm just gonna keep saving my pennies here in London until those falls bite.

Nomadd


and from Papitogrande.....

I wondered what your thoughts were on al the development that is/has been going on in Alderley, Prestbury etc. It seems to have been the fashion lately to buy up oldish houses for a million quid or so then knock them down and build a new 6 bed mock-mansion. Personally I think they look awful but they're priced around the £3m mark. IMO these things will tank.

wink.gif





Nomadd
QUOTE (Red Kharma @ Jan 11 2008, 09:27 PM) *
I could give you the addresses of perhaps a dozen houses on 3 roads that have sold within a few weeks of being marketed for around £1m, been demolished and now have foundations in. So apparently those with that money to spend ARE daft enough to throw it away on over-priced property that will have dropped in value in the next few years. Whodda thunk it huh?


Amazing how you can ignore the stuff that I posted that was contrary to all that. And that was from Rightmove, PropertySnake and a property developer who's been working the area for 15 years! i.e. not just comments pulled out of my backside like yours...

And who'da thought someone would start a web site/forum called www.housepriceCRASH.co.uk. You know, a place for people who think house prices are overvalued. And "whodda thunk" that it would attract some people - like you - who wish to defend insane houseprices at any cost, particularly those in their neck of the woods? ...Must be a real slow day in your Estate Agency.

Still, thanks for your valuable insight: prices NEVER fall. And South Manchester/Cheshire are ALWAYS a good buy. Cause you said so. That's all I needed to know. Thank god there was a smart chap like you around to teach me the error of my ways. I'll inform the web master of this site to take it down immediately, or at least tell people to stop talking about price falls in YOUR area.

QUOTE (Red Kharma @ Jan 11 2008, 09:27 PM) *
But by all means come back in 5 years with your money earned in London and snap up a bargain.....


Oh, I will. :-)

And thanks for the tip Mr E.A. Seems you are finally coming around to my way of thinking. :-)

Nomadd
Red Kharma
QUOTE (Nomadd @ Jan 11 2008, 11:37 PM) *
Amazing how you can ignore the stuff that I posted that was contrary to all that. And that was from Rightmove, PropertySnake and a property developer who's been working the area for 15 years! i.e. not just comments pulled out of my backside like yours...

And who'da thought someone would start a web site/forum called www.housepriceCRASH.co.uk. You know, a place for people who think house prices are overvalued. And "whodda thunk" that it would attract some people - like you - who wish to defend insane houseprices at any cost, particularly those in their neck of the woods? ...Must be a real slow day in your Estate Agency.

Still, thanks for your valuable insight: prices NEVER fall. And South Manchester/Cheshire are ALWAYS a good buy. Cause you said so. That's all I needed to know. Thank god there was a smart chap like you around to teach me the error of my ways. I'll inform the web master of this site to take it down immediately, or at least tell people to stop talking about price falls in YOUR area.


I haven't ignored you stuff. You didn't provide any links so I'm none the wiser. You just quoted some numbers. I provided links.

If you could be bothered reading what is written rather than what you think has been written, you would see that I have said that I would expect prices to fall. Indeed I am hoping they do, which is precisely why I am renting here at the moment. But please feel free to post my quote where I said prices in South Manchester/Cheshire never fall. I never mentioned South Manchester/Cheshire anywhere in any of my posts. You did. I mentioned Bowdon/Hale/Alderley Edge.

I am not an Estate Agent, nor have any VI in that industry. You seem to have gone off half-**** all the way through your aggressive and frankly rather unpleasant posts.

But please, I challenge you to quote back to me what you have said I have said. I have repeated your quotes back to you, but you seem unable to do the same to me. Perhaps because you're making them up?

Flaming me is just a bit immature don't you think? Not really worthy of someone who is an MD of their own company and earns £675 a day is it? You could almost afford a house in Hale on that sort of money even without a crash, so I'm not sure why you're so het up in the first place. When you've calmed down a bit, see if you can't have a go at a more measured post.
Red Kharma
FAO NOMADD

Here was my actual post with the relevant bits emboldened. As you can see it doesn't bear much resemblance to your attack flaming me as an estate agent, or saying that Manchester/Cheshire will NEVER fall. But we wouldn't want whatever is going on in your pre-frontal lobes to interfere too much with what you think is going on in there now would we. £675 a day? You're having a laugh.


QUOTE (Red Kharma @ Jan 7 2008, 06:03 PM) *
Hi Papitogrande, I've owned and rented and brought up children in and around that area and know it very well. It appears you know it well too.

As with most areas it is a very mixed bag, with bought for cash footballer/new money new-build "mansions" at the top end and ex council owned semis at the other and everything in between.

To the extent that the vast majority of home prices will be supported by over-geared mortgages they will follow the rest of the country if there is an HPC. They did in 91-95 and they will now. In nominal terms my average 3bed semi fell from around 85k at the peak in '89 to around £65k when we traded up in '96. That was Bramhall.

Having said that the better areas will also tend to be where people want to live and so will imo not fall as far or as fast as the more vulnerable less affluent areas. As an example, Hale and Bowdon for instance has accelerated during the last 10/15 years faster than Bramhall. Everything is relative.

I am renting in these areas and have been for the last 3 years. I see nothing to warrant buying, from a financial view, for a long time yet. My rent is the equivalent of less than 3% of purchase price when you factor in maintenance charges and free water. So until rents have at least doubled or prices have halved or a combination thereof, renting is an absolute no-brainer, kids or no kids.

p.s. that house depicted as you know is on a fairly grim "commuter" estate with no local community within walking distance to speak of. If I were buying when the market looks to be bottoming out I would focus on those areas where you don't rely on a car, and have good local schools within walking distance for you kids to get to school. That estate above would be ghastly for that. This would include: Bramhall, Cheadle Hulme some parts of Macclefield some parts of Knutsford, some parts of central Wilmslow, Hale or Bowdon. If you cannot afford those areas then I would steer clear of South Manchester altogether. Today you could get a much nicer house, in a much better area 10 minutes walk from the centre of Bramhall for instance than that one pictured for £250-300k. I have been watching several excellent houses which have been on the market for over 12 months with only tiny price drops, which I believe are set to fall much further over the next 18 months or so. Keep saving, be patient.
I'M WITH STUPID
QUOTE (Nomadd @ Jan 11 2008, 02:44 PM) *
Well, I hope you all the best in your future as an EA.


I aint no estate agent neither am I insecure enough to start ranting about how much I earn - I browse the FT for fianance jobs occassionally and am never impressed by the salaries offered down there - the only advantage of London is there are more jobs not necessarily better paid.

I'm sure for the very top money London is the place to be not just in the uk but globally - but there are plenty of well paid professional jobs in the north west and plenty of successful businesses

your illusion that we're all morgaged to the hilt in a bid to live some OC lifestyle is just plain wishful thinking

enjoy your 3 bed semi (and your london wage smile.gif )
Rachman
QUOTE (Red Kharma @ Jan 11 2008, 09:27 PM) *
But by all means come back in 5 years with your money earned in London and snap up a bargain.....
The thing is, good London/Surrey will be as resilient (or not) as these parts of Cheshire - simialr demographics and economic split between workers and old money.

The difference is that I can earn it down here - so you take the money and have a hope of buying mortgage free when you come back - we tend to take Norman Tebbitt's advice - we got on our bikes.
Nomadd
QUOTE (Rachman @ Jan 12 2008, 10:25 AM) *
The thing is, good London/Surrey will be as resilient (or not) as these parts of Cheshire - simialr demographics and economic split between workers and old money.

The difference is that I can earn it down here - so you take the money and have a hope of buying mortgage free when you come back - we tend to take Norman Tebbitt's advice - we got on our bikes.


Exactly. And for those of us in specific industries, the earnings available in London - as you've already pointed out - are three/four times what can be earned in the North West. Especially if you work for yourself (which I've be doing for 18 years.)

Of course, the main thing to do is keep your ties to London "light". I don't have a mortgage, I just rent, and even that gets pushed through my company as a business expense; one single days earnings more than covers my rent for the month, so the rest of the month is pure profit. That £1 million house in Hale/Bowden is already 80% paid for; the rest will take me just two more years. I can tell from your postings that you are in an almost similar position - because you "got on your bike" and made the most of your life. Unlike the whining, lazy, jealous types on this thread who can only *dream* and make daft comments like "I'm a hiring manager and I'd never hire you!" I'm still having a good laugh at that one! :-)

I wish you all the best, my friend. YOU deserve it.

Nomadd
Papitogrande
QUOTE (Nomadd @ Jan 12 2008, 11:45 AM) *
Exactly. And for those of us in specific industries, the earnings available in London - as you've already pointed out - are three/four times what can be earned in the North West. Especially if you work for yourself (which I've be doing for 18 years.)

Of course, the main thing to do is keep your ties to London "light". I don't have a mortgage, I just rent, and even that gets pushed through my company as a business expense; one single days earnings more than covers my rent for the month, so the rest of the month is pure profit. That £1 million house in Hale/Bowden is already 80% paid for; the rest will take me just two more years. I can tell from your postings that you are in an almost similar position - because you "got on your bike" and made the most of your life. Unlike the whining, lazy, jealous types on this thread who can only *dream* and make daft comments like "I'm a hiring manager and I'd never hire you!" I'm still having a good laugh at that one! :-)

I wish you all the best, my friend. YOU deserve it.

Nomadd


One single day more than pays for your rent? You sir are a genius. Until late 2006 I had lived in London for almost 5 years and my rent was more than that a week, this for a 2 bed flat. You however get a nice 3 bed semi in a good area for less than £675 per month, which you manage to lower with a bit of a tax fiddle (not a criticism I do the same).

The only way I could think it is possible to live in a 3 bed semi, in a nice area of London, for less than £675 is in a houseshare. I suppose this would be highly unlikely though for a high flying MD (contractor) with £800k in the bank.


Red Kharma
QUOTE (Nomadd @ Jan 12 2008, 11:45 AM) *
Exactly. And for those of us in specific industries, the earnings available in London - as you've already pointed out - are three/four times what can be earned in the North West. Especially if you work for yourself (which I've be doing for 18 years.)

Of course, the main thing to do is keep your ties to London "light". I don't have a mortgage, I just rent, and even that gets pushed through my company as a business expense; one single days earnings more than covers my rent for the month, so the rest of the month is pure profit. That £1 million house in Hale/Bowden is already 80% paid for; the rest will take me just two more years. I can tell from your postings that you are in an almost similar position - because you "got on your bike" and made the most of your life. Unlike the whining, lazy, jealous types on this thread who can only *dream* and make daft comments like "I'm a hiring manager and I'd never hire you!" I'm still having a good laugh at that one! :-)

I wish you all the best, my friend. YOU deserve it.

Nomadd


So Radbroke Hall or wherever are paying your 1 man business £675 a day, and now you are earning 3/4 times that in London?....that's feally funny.....

£800,000 in the bank and you still don't know your posterior from your elbow....Do you have your bank balance printed on a Tshirt for when you try and pick up women in the Knutsford Wine Bar? Or do you let your Range Rover Sport HSE do your talking for you?

PM me your CV if your bank let's you go early, and I'll see what I can do for you wink.gif

Your apology for totally misrepresenting what I said above is graciously received, although I would recommend that you get your little company to send you on a listening and speed reading self-development course. (You can charge it to expenses like your little semi-detached London property).
Nomadd
QUOTE (Papitogrande @ Jan 12 2008, 11:58 AM) *
One single day more than pays for your rent? You sir are a genius. Until late 2006 I had lived in London for almost 5 years and my rent was more than that a week, this for a 2 bed flat. You however get a nice 3 bed semi in a good area for less than £675 per month, which you manage to lower with a bit of a tax fiddle (not a criticism I do the same).

The only way I could think it is possible to live in a 3 bed semi, in a nice area of London, for less than £675 is in a houseshare. I suppose this would be highly unlikely though for a high flying MD (contractor) with £800k in the bank.


Well, your post appears reasonable, so I'll give it a reasonable response.

My rental is actually £650 a month. And yes, it is a nice 3 bed semi in a VERY nice area. That rent is less than half the going rate around here - I know as I got new neighbours next door about 9 months ago. The deal is simply that I've known the landlord for 10 years or more; he'd bought the house for himself, but his father died and he went to live back with his mother. As I've taken the house on a long-term rental, and I do bits of work on it and the garden, he's never increased the rent. So yes, it's a very good deal, which is why I still keep the house on even when I'm working away (i.e. I'd never want to lose it at this rental price.)

Nomadd
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