They have updated for Jan 05

So did a search on London W9 which has thousands upon thousands of mansion block flats.

Total sold for January = 6

Yes thats 6 for the whole of London W9, if this is correct then there going to be a lot of EA's going under especially when theres probably 15 companies at least serving the area. Thats 6 fees split between 15 offices

Hmm you could use NHP to do a nice graph of sales in your area...

My normal search area that I keep an eye on is two postcode areas that cover a large town.

Just checked nethouseprices.... only 47 sales in total for January. Oh Dear

Some more interesting stats from nethouse prices on the whole of worcester, i did searches on worcester, and counted the number of results for specific mounths (january)

Sales:
2000 : 2802
2001 : 4082
2002 : 4309
2003 : 3638
2004 : 3456
2005 : 93 so far

Comparing Jan 2004 to Jan 2005.....

Jan 2003 : 269
Jan 2004 : 359
Jan 2005 : 93

Synopsis :
It looks like sales quantities have been in decline since 2003, however year on year this Jan has been awful, in comparison to last Jan, the rise in Jan 2004 seems logical because EA in worcester were especially busy 12 mounths ago. IMO things havent started crashing properly yet in worcester, DEFINATLY need this in a graph....

Just checked Jan04 London W9

assume CRASH position

Jan04 ----72 sales

Jan05 ---- 6 sales



AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Just checked my town
Jan 03 - 30
Jan 04 - 12
jan 05 - 4

That's some slowdown!

I wonder if all the 'data' is in, what about dec 2003 compared to Dec 2004... Its a shame its so difficult to get the data, as it would be REALLY nice to plot this on a graph

EN10 and EN11

Jan 04 - 98
Jan 05 - 31

Muhahahaha.......

Checked data for Fareham

Dec 03: 215
Dec 04: 100

Nice...

Dont get too excited folks, all the data isn't in.

We did all this when NHP was first launched, then for October 04 (most recent month at the time) had 37 transactions listed, now its 74.

So not all they seem to be on first look.

My area SS6.

Has dropped from 47 in Jan 04 to 18 in Jan 05.

Are all the Jan figures in yet?

Jan 2004 in my post-code: 59 properties sell

Jan 2005 in my post-code: 16 properties sell

But it WILL rise because all the figures aren't yet in.

there can be a delay before the details are available. couple houses in my road took a couple on months before the details were accesible...

Does that mean data is accurate/in upto Dec 2004? and January is just the fluke?

Booooooo. And I suppose that when we say Jan 05, we're actually talking about property that "sold" in the dead month of December.

Takes 6 weeks to go through the mill and be reported to the land registry

I think for a completely accurate picture, one should ignore the last 3 months.

Soz

As the LR release the quarterly figures 5 weeks after it finishes can we assume that these figures are complete as it is roughly 5 weeks since the end of Jan?

Late LR returns can trickle in for a long time. I understand that the rule is that you need to wait for 3 months after the month in question for accurate figures to be available. So you should only be making statistical assumptions for the November data right now.

This is one aspect of opaqueness in house prices and another reason that the crash will not be recognisable except in hindsight. Interestingly in the great stock crash of 1929 it was also a lack of timeliness in pricing which helped create panic. People experience a crash after it is possible to act, hence increasing panic behaviour.

Its beginning to happen, but no one will definitively be able to tell until after the May election. Of course, thats just coincidence.

If I search on Chelmsford I get sales from Jan 1 to Jan 31st 2005, so I would be interested as to what is to be added.

Anyway Chelmsford sales:-

Jan 2005 73
Jan 2004 252
Jan 2003 280
Jan 2002 266
Jan 2001 248

I completed in Jan 05 and my old house isn't yet listed. Mind you there is only 1 property listed!

Kettering House Sales up to Nevember 04:



The autumn bounce that happened in Sep-Nov 03 failed to materialise in 04, although sales were higher in the first part of the year.

The next few months should be interesting.


liar thief twit

Interesting figures folkestone in kent

Jan 01 98 of 1607 total sales ie 6.1%
jan 02 115 of 1894 total sales ie 6.07%
jan 03 103 of 1680 total sales ie 6.13%
jan 04 130 of 1553 total sales ie 8.37%
JAN 05 34 GIVES PROJECTED SALES OF BETWEEN 406 AND 566 FOR the year realise late entries will affect but this is enormous difference for my area ie Folkestone in Kent.


Dec 01 134 of 1607 sales ie 8.34%
dec 02 165 of 1894 sales ie8.71%
dec 03 178 of 1680 sales ie 10.6%
dec 04 72 of 1553 ie 4.64%
dec 04 would have expected circa 140 to 160 sales from historical analysis ,
any one else get similar results??

London SW15

Nov 03 - 123 Dec 03 - 129
Nov 04 - 87 Dec 04 - 57

Only 2 in my local town in Jan, ok it is smallish in any case, that is if the data is complete.

I have been through the years and the pattern I found was that here was a peak (of completions) in June/July/August 2003 with a slow decline since. December 2004 and January 2005 stand out as being extremely low, that is if all data is up to date

Edit: did a wider search for postcode LL4 and go the following data


2000 = 284 completions (not inc. Jan - March)

2001 = 421 completions

2002 = 455 completions

2003 = 548 completions

2004 = 402 completions

If my maths is ok there were 36% fewer sales in 2004 compared to 2003.

We've been scanning this site for all manner of target postcodes and there's the eye-opening, cut price sales. In fact, we're looking at some areas of greater london again, as the differential between there and Watford in terms of asking prices seems 10-15 less than a year or so ago.

Some housing markets of London must be dead in the water.

Kendal Cumbria,

Jan 2004 65 Sales

Jan 2005 9, yes nine sales




Must admit though, alot of SSTC boards have gone up of-late, however these will probably fall through

Just checked my area, Coventry-

Total sales-

2000 - 5497
2001 - 7342
2002 - 8460
2003 - 7474
2004 - 6632
2005 - 118 so far

By Month-

Jan 2001 - 377
Jan 2002 - 436
Jan 2003 - 485
Jan 2004 - 530
Jan 2005 - 118 so far

The whole of the RM postcode
Parts of Barking and Dagenham
The whole of Havering
Grays
Ockendon
Purfleet
Aveley

Total 2004 = 10,564
Total into 2005 so far = 227

The figures are not perfect, don't pick every sale up. Did a search on the house we bought in 2001 and sold in 2004 and IT ISNT THERE - but next door's 2004 sale is.

Just Looked at my area

Broadstairs Margate

Jan 04 51 Sales 100 sales

Jan 05 21 Sales 29 sales

no matter which way you look at it thats alot less houses being sold

Emailed them yesterday asking whether figures are complete for Jan 05 or is it likely more will be added?

Answer received today;

Hi 88888888

Thanks for contacting us about this.

I believe that we now have on site all the full market value residential
transactions registered with Land Registry/Registers of Scotland in
January 2005.

Is there a transaction of this type that you hoped to find that is not yet
there?

Best wishes
8888
Nethouseprices Admin


Oh dear looks like there is a serious problem with the property market

I suppose the next thing you're going to say is "I TOLD YOU SO"..

How do you view the number transactions on a postcode basis?

This is quite a revelation. Have to ramp this up to the top. I hope this gets pinned

Well, that prompted me to go and look at my area in the slightly less posh-end of Warwickshire.

Totals :

2001 - 2137 sales
2002 - 2200 sales
2003 - 2279 sales
2004 - 2057 sales

January 2005 : 55 sales (extrapolates to just 660 over the year).

That's a pretty dramatic slowdown by anyone's standards.

Bloomin eck. This could be the big one!

Can't it wait about another 18 months, I need to do some saving first

I don't think you can extrapolate a whole year from January's sales. It is traditionally a slow month. Looks like the final year's number will be a lot lower, however. Maybe you should do a seasonal adjustment, like Nationwide does.

2001 - 2137 sales
2002 - 2200 sales
2003 - 2279 sales
2004 - 2057 sales

January 2005 : 55 sales (seasonally adjusted to 5679 over the year).

Blimey, even all the bears doubted the figures as they're so 'bad' !

I still have my doubts they're correct ! But if they say they are, who am I to argue...?

Greenwich SE10 . 35 sales Jan 2004

11 sales Jan 2005

That's more like it!

Sales for Jan '05 in my postcode are 33% of what they were in Jan '05.
(South East - Essex)

EX6 (nr Exeter)

January 2004: 17

January 2005: 7

Sorry to sound a damp squib but all they're saying is that they are showing all the REGISTERED (repeat, REGISTERED) Jan 2005 transactions. What about all the transactions that are registered late/later? This subject was covered about a month ago and I, for one, concluded that these figures are meaningless for about 2-3 months by which time most of the registrations are in.

p

I did some comparisons of oct 2003 with oct 2004 for IG11. All sales should be reported by now for these dates and found a fall of about 50%.

SN1 - Swindon and areas beginning with SN1x.

Jan 2004 - 337
Jan 2005 - 91

London E14

Jan 2003 101
Jan 2004 117
Jan 2005 40

And we still get letters from estate agents exhorting the fact that they need more properties on their books because things are 'getting snapped up' - somebodies telling porkies...

Bare in mind that these figures are for completions in January, so are likely to be from Nov/Dec offers. The 'spring bounce' figures will be out in a month or two. They still make great reading

Surbiton KT5:

Jan04: 33

Jan05: 7


Assume the position...

Just tried October - '04 was 80% of '03 for my postcode in South East.

When a house sale completes the change of title must be registered at the Land Registry within 28 days or there is some huge problem. You need a solicitor on here to be definite about this.
When a house sale is progressing, that is when problems with the title are sorted out. If there is a problem with the title of a house you are buying, your solicitor will not let you buy it until the problem is sorted. So, house completions that took place in January are now registered at the Land Registry. They aren't floating about in the ether so they can get retrospectively added to January's total.