I reckon we will closely follow the path that the republic has shown of 10-20% off depending on areas.

First to tank will be the traditionally worse off parts of belfast and regional outliers with few economic prospects. I am intrigued to see what will happen at the top of the market where margins are higher and owners undoubtly greedier...can you imagine all those yummy mummys having to cash in the X5 for something a little more economical...

An Phoblacht didn't have those 50% YOY increases lately, while their incomes are higher (or am I wrong?). We should be tanking way faster. I'd say 20-35% in a year - and to be continued.

Looks like Nationwide BS are pinning their hopes on 4%!!!



http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/homefind...icle3308174.ece

Maybe they meant 40%
cos thats what they'll get!

This was posted by estat_eagent_ni on the 12th December 07



I tend to agree with this, 20% drop by the end of 2008

I think there will be isolated large drops here and there, but with mostly houses being put on the market, then taken off, then plans to move put on hold for a few years because nobody will sell at a loss until they really have to.
So I think the 5-10% drop in 2008 could be about right.

I'm going to stick my neck out here and forecast much bigger drops this year. This crash will not be like others because of the huge specuvestor and buy to let market over here also the potential for developers to get into severe trouble with the banks for unsold houses. In the latter scenario - do you see FTBs holding on to properties when the developer is selling the next phase at 70k off? and this is already happening in Gilford see treesdontgrowtothesky 22.12.07.

There has never been a crash over here - its new territory. Prices returning to stability and a decent salary multiple will be greeted with joy by a lot of people. Parents will see adult children want to stay here or return home. Professionals can be attracted again. Those who imagined their houses were worth millions and didnt MEW will be unaffected. The greedy investors seeking outrageous capital gain will dump houses and seek other means of investing- and no-one will miss them.

So I reckon we will see 30% drops by the end of the year in many sectors. The glut of apartments and the lack of tenants will almost guarantee a 30%plus drop there in that sector. Housing estates where speculators have bought up 10-15 houses for gain will drop 30%.

5-10% is not optimistic enough - we must have faith in at least 25% falls. Remember, renting is currently at half the cost of buying.
In Sheffield (a northern ex-industrial city, similiar in size and make-up to Belfast)where I lived for years, rents are usually 20% higher than here (In keeping with an economy less state dependent) and do not include council tax/rates. Houses for sale are about two thirds that of Belfast and the market there has died too.

Don`t believe me? These properties are all in similiar areas in either city

Rentals
http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...amp;p=PNC301795
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-165...1&tr_t=rent

Sales
http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...mp;p=GOCGOC2763
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-178...=6&tr_t=buy

http://www.propertynews.com/brochure.php?r...;p=BTWLBTWL0926
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-183...=3&tr_t=buy

The point is that NI affordability has become completely uncoupled from reality, and therefore the correction will be very sharp

Had an attack of voter appathy Doccy?

crystal ball time again.....

but I think NI may suffer from the 'double peak paradox!'

if you look at the up to date NI avg HPs vs UK HPs graph below (not adjusted for inflation) you can see that the NI spike sits on top of the general UK peak, hence will NI suffer from the spikes return followed by a declining peak!? answers on a postcard please

my forecast for the year-end? 25-35% drop

Click to view attachment

edit - typo

2nd edit - stats courtesy of natwide

ps - I was considering the deflation vs inflation vs hyperinflation debate today and my thoughts are this: if we see drops year end of 25%+ followed by a bout of hyperinflation, I will buy a house quicker than you can say FIAT, however, my personal view is that we will see commodity (basics) inflation without inflation beating pay-rises, hence general inflation in a steady IR environment for a few years anyhow (IMHO of course )

Looking at your down load its clear to see that things went badly wrong after Q1 2005 as we all know. I can see this froth coming off the market very quickly then a second breath and a further downward slide as the recession bites. So that works out at return to Q1 2005 by the end of 2008 . This would be all the flippers and specuvestors leaving the market plus the "have to moves". This also equates with the 203 drops in price this month on Treesdontgrow. February will be big bail out time I reckon - but time will tell.

hi all
i am the idiot who just voted for the 40% + drop
hope i am wrong but this credit crunch just seems like a 1930s scenario to me
then prices in these parts fell 60% in 18 months!
time will tell all

Welcome Rock and Roll - I dont think you are an idiot. My son is convinced there will be an overshoot back to 2001 prices but I tend to be a little more conservative

Is that true? How do you know?

most definitely is fact
but not one the property gurus mention when they are telling you to buy buy buy
i live in an ancient wee pile
many moons ago done some research of the history of it
it was sold just before the 1920s property bubble burst for £5000
18 months later the bank sold it for £2000
they the bank actually got all their money out of it
the unlucky punter lost everything
it was sold again 2 years later for £2500
but it took it another 30 years to get back to its 1920s high!
i asked an old time local estate agent was this an exceptional case
NO was the reply this was the norm he knew of even bigger falls
asked if it could ever happen again of course he said
no
the 30s were exceptional nobody could get a loan

Fascinating!

I don't think anyone has ever posted such historical info here before. The earliest info we've ever had here goes back only to the early 70s.

Pod I found this link to house prices in the UK 1930's onwards Table 502
http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/hous...ket/livetables/

Actually, I'm not too sure about that. I think for every person who is happy that prices have gone down, there will be more than one person who is angry that thier house is no longer worth astronomical amounts of money. Never underestimate the ignorance and arrogance of people - there are so many people out there that think that it's just fine that their houses have rocketed in price.

£300,000 for a house that was bought 9 years ago for £80,000? Nothing wrong with that...

And of course they are too stupid to see that lower prices will actually benefit them as homeowners, as it will make the next 'step' on the ladder more accessible, should they want to move house.

It is for this reason that I have a feeling that maybe people just won't bother selling their houses for the next couple of years, and wait for prices to go back up.

However, what will be hilarous is when all these hundreds of apartments are finally completed and no one wants to touch them with a barge pole. I think we could see large drops in new-build apartment prices very quickly. But this will not affect me, as I have no intention of buying a new build apartment, no matter how cheap they get.

Just spotted this poll on THIS IS MONEY site. Over 22000 voters and 86% say 11% or more drops!

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/tools-and-cal...n_answer1=18219

I would be deeply shocked to see anything greater than 20% in one year. 50% is silly in my view - It would have horrendous consequences for anyone having bought within the last two years.

It sure will - even if it happens in 3 years, which it almost certainly will (unless there's high inflation, sudden explosion in rents, etc.)

And don't forget, that people who bought in the last two years, "investors" excepted, and not too numerous.

you surprise me talksalot, surely 20%+ is very possible if we look at the shape of the 'peak' so far in NI Avg HPs using the nationwide data.

Furthermore, the yoy rise is still probably in the 20-30% range so a 20% drop from the peak isn't exactly a major thing given the last 24 months data

edit - clarification

PS - The NI 'spike' far surpasses the UK 'peak' - which absolutely shouts un-sustainability

sorry if I am being too bearish for some readers - If you are a bull, you might get your way if inflation rockets!

Will it change anything in real terms for the bulls?

the debt is eroded; If I thought we were entering a hyperinflationary stage, I would borrow up to the hilt!! (+ buy)

ps if UK IRs drop this year and we take on the US model, i.e. lower rates at the expense of the currency than will inflation will be here to stay?

to illustrate a point re. the NI 'spike', it would take approx an 18.5% drop in HPs to get back to UK Avg (at present!!). Over a year this is approximately the same as 4 x quarterly 5% drops. Now, just for illustration purposes only (I should get out more I know) I have plotted 4 x subsequent 5% quarter drops to the NI Avg. HP Nationwide data.

All data is not inflation adjusted.


Click to view attachment

I think it is possible, and I do not have arguement that it is likely to happen, I just dont think it will happen so fast so soon. I imagine it more likely that someone, in a comfortable enough position, will just forget about moving. Someone who has stretched and is looking at NE may well pull out all the stops possible to avoid having to sell and it should not be too difficult to do this for the order of a year. Those who have truly overstretched will be forced to stay put until they havent a penny in the bank because selling at such huge loss would inevitably lead to an even worse bank balance.

Ultimately I hope you are correct but my feeling is that people will fight to survive and, if there are enough of them, someone will be doing their best to try and relieve the suffering, even if it is only a delay to the inevitable. One should describe me as a pessimist in this respect, a huge drop, quickly, would be great for me. Thus I dont see it happening!

I genuinely feel sorry for any 2007 FT Buyers who were caught up in the 'must buy before it's too late' sentiment.

But like you say - sitting it out is an option, especially in an inflatory economic environment.

Also, I always look at data now rather than inject any of my own emotive babble; trying to take a scientific approach like yourself.

In retrospect, most people who bought in 2006 (and earlier) will not realize any losses if they sell up after a drop of 30% from the peak (using natwide data - there will be exceptions of course)

deleted wrong thread.

YOY I think it will be between 0 and 10 percent, due to the latency. MOM, it may be looking a bit worse.

hi all
from what i hear
20% fall is probably here already
there are as we know very few houses being sold at the moment
but there are always a few who have to sell
the wonderfully titled motivated seller
these are the ones which will be recorded in the statistics
not the thousands soldiering manfully on who wont sell at a loss!
as for 50% being silly perhaps
but try telling that to the japanese

Happy new year to you all!



I read from one of your interesting threads that you intend to keep your property in Sheffield whilst rent in Northern Ireland. I assume you believe Northern Ireland will be worse affected than Northern England, based on statistics etc. But not withstanding this, if you decide to hold, it you could take 11 years from now to realise the value again in real terms [based on last HPC 1989 to 2001]. That is, if Q4 2007 is peak price within the UK. You may only achieve same levels by 2016 to 2018?

Also if you change you habitual residence from ownership property to rented accommodation, after 12 months you lose all tax rights of your mortgaged residence and will be taxed accordingly. This means a charge of 18% capital gains tax without any CPI taper relief on the gain, from obviously original purchase price to sale price. HMRC are buggers on this score and are also clamping down on BTL income streams generally. My advice would be to quit whilst still ahead and invest profits in any high interest bearing account. Even if the property is self financing, if you are bearish on market prospects then like poker it is better to realise the gain and withdraw whilst ahead. Only mentioned primarily because of the tax implications.




Hi Profit you make some very interesting assertions. But within Northern Ireland the variations within the districts is paramount especially as there is little wage variation

ALL PROPERTIES - SORT BY:
NAME AV PRICE (£)
Mid Ulster £292,931
Coleraine/ Limavady/ North Coast £285,938
Lisburn £284,599
North Down £279,172
Mid & South Down £261,654
Belfast £258,332
Craigavon/ Armagh £241,410
East Antrim £222,759
Antrim/ Ballymena £222,193
Enniskillen/ Fermanagh/ S. Tyrone £191,368
Londonderry/ Strabane £185,863

I believe in 2008 prices will move back by 5% with at most 10%. The real affect of RPI coupled to this will make it feel more like an 8.5% to 13.5% adjustment. In my opinion the UK Plc is now dead in the water as an economy [If Ron Paul fails in US sack Brown for him] however with lowering interest rates predicted at 5% by the summer it is a very unusual circumstance and that is why Nationwide are predicting a 5% correction within Northern Ireland. It may not be until Q1 2009 that anything of any merit arises. One thing that is a given is that house prices will stall for several years to come against inflation or a 23% devalue, but that's my guess for 2008 only anyways. It is very hard to make a guess beyond then until end of this year. But 2009 IMO and in the opinion of many pundits such as James Ferguson [whom I disagree with more than agree] will be more troublesome and turbulent.



I believe the UK may possibly experience deflation of sorts, but like the USA it is on a 9 month time lag to them and will more than likely experience a mild recession. The seven years of high commodity prices is only now feeding through to CPI and RPI, but with China only recently revalued to 60% of its economic size and world growth decreasing somewhat, I believe these strains will ease.

I do not countenance the views on the main board about the doom of the impending credit crunch and hyperinflation etc, a lot of it is horsesh*t and flies in the face of most sane or paid, financial pundits or journalists. In short you will never get a house in the Malone Road or Shrewsbury's Avenue, Ballsbridge for a bag of carrots or anywhere near. Keep saving or borrowing if inflation does grip.

How are average prices calculated anway? Is it based on valuations and if so how are they made or does a price only affect the "average" price when a transaction occurs?

Good point - when focusing on NI Avg. HPs, it is easy to forget about regional variation (good to see you back BTW)

transactions only

Thanks for that PP. FTR the latest information per housing stock 01/2008

Northern Ireland Average Cost: £250,586

Change in last quarter: 4.2%

Change in last year: 39.1%

Sales: N/A

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

For anyone’s interested in the breakdown per districts for each housing stock. This may help to identify anomalies or trends to watch.

Average N.I. Detached: £369,609

DETACHED HOUSES - SORT BY:
NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES
Lisburn £453,133
Belfast £443,592
Coleraine/ Limavady/ North Coast £422,650
Mid Ulster £403,175
Mid & South Down £392,316
North Down £366,853
East Antrim £348,515
Antrim/ Ballymena £308,182
Craigavon/ Armagh £307,287
Londonderry/ Strabane N/A
Enniskillen/ Fermanagh/ S. Tyrone £282,000


Semi-detached: £243,223

SEMI-DETACHED - SORT BY:
NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES
Lisburn £289,767
North Down £275,584
Belfast £270,584
Coleraine/ Limavady/ North Coast £239,591
Mid & South Down £235,109
Mid Ulster £221,563
East Antrim £220,827
Antrim/ Ballymena £219,050
Craigavon/ Armagh £198,460
Londonderry/ Strabane £182,500
Enniskillen/ Fermanagh/ S. Tyrone £175,167


Average Terraced: £199,392

TERRACED - SORT BY:
NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES
Belfast £218,697
Coleraine/ Limavady/ North Coast £217,333
Lisburn £216,465
Mid Ulster £214,077
North Down £191,384
Mid & South Down £177,450
East Antrim £171,276
Antrim/ Ballymena £159,227
Craigavon/ Armagh £128,778
Londonderry/ Strabane N/A
Enniskillen/ Fermanagh/ S. Tyrone N/A


Average Flat: £205,178

FLAT/MAISONETTE - SORT BY:
NAME AV PRICE (£) QUARTER ANNUAL SALES
Coleraine/ Limavady/ North Coast £239,279
Mid & South Down £230,997
Lisburn £229,929
Belfast £217,117
North Down £199,233
East Antrim £172,154
Enniskillen/ Fermanagh/ S. Tyrone £170,000
Mid Ulster N/A
Londonderry/ Strabane N/A
Craigavon/ Armagh N/A
Antrim/ Ballymena N/A


These categories should be looked at on a psm value.

while I don't wish to bang on an old drum - how far are the prices in the preceding post diverging from a reasonable multiple of the average wage in NI. My boss considers me well paid at 16k FTE. I've seen hundreds of jobs advertised at 20k. You would need 3 families to live together to afford those detached house prices.

Nice to see you back
As much as I would prefer to sell, we only managed a sale agreed which fell through in October after 6 months on the market. As I was moving home in December, a rented occupied house paying for itself is better than covering a mortgage on an empty property.
I see several options:
Take a longterm view and keep for 10+years and sell when market buoyant
Move back to England and live in it again
Try flogging it again next autumn

It looks like Brown will opt for the high inflation 1973 crash option not the 1990 one. If we choose to stay, I will buy here when the falling prices are being negated by wage inflation. This could mean a recovery of pre-crash prices sooner rather than later. It may mean a getout option in 5 years

NI is going to tank much more than the UK mainland

Get a £20k job then, new years resolution...

The proof is in the pudding as far as property investment. Buy a terrace in Lisburn at £216,000 then spend £10,000 converting to two maisonettes. Ikea should help with cheap tat. Now, according to the above each maisonette should now be worth £229,929. Go down to the bank with this chart and show them [tell no one else the strategy]. You'll get more money and become before you know it a rich full time property mogul. Working for a living will become a distant memory.

Thanks for the advice I'll give it some thought.

Thinking about Md's post 35 about average house prices.

P-P says in post 34 transactions only.

Now I only trawl websites looking at detached properties which I do most days for a couple of hours and I've built up a file of houses I would have been interested in. Now from my limited experience I know that its the best houses at relatively good value which have sold this past year. I would suggest that the number of transaction is not huge since not a lot of properties appeared and disappeared last year on the EA websites. I think properties in Belfast at huge prices have kept this "detached average" figure at a high level. It only needs a few at 750k to upset the average if there are not many sales.

However the average price in NI has increased by 39% last year according to Post 35. It would therefore only need a fall of 30% this year to bring us back to 2006 prices and they were totally unsustainable.

If I can put it this way and not ramble on too much - the current vendors are looking at these figures and believing their houses are worth this much on what could be very flawed figures. We have been made victims of a system with no Land Registry available to the public - I have written to the DUP asking why we can't have a public land register and have received no reply. Until the information gets out there to the public that the "average figures" are based on an unknown number of sales and achieved prices they will continue to believe in HPI fairies at the bottom of their gardens.

md - can I just ask where you're getting your data from?

I used the Nationwide data available from their website; I just read their latest pdf and it says that NIs annual change was +24.2%.

It just goes to show about lies, damn lies and statistics when we are both citing figures of such difference!

I'd better post this quick because I think the leccies gonna go in a minute with that wind outside

ATB, pp

edit - sp.

Is it windy out in the country PP?

you could say that

whenever there's a strong westerly we pretty much get it full on!!

off topic - I have seriously been considering getting a turbine, but going down the 'ahem' cheaper route. i.e. not connecting to the grid and use deep cell batteries instead. I bought a little 12v thing from Hong Kong a few years back and it was blown off the roof the second night

Hi PP...you are right that the infomation tends to be all over the place. I have used the following calculator before which has recently been updated by the BBC. In relation to the statistics some areas have a hell of a long way to fall towards the median and should do so this year, immediately. Apart from Belfast having some critical mass of being the regional capital why should Coleraine & Mid Ulster be so heavily priced. Neither have alarmingly high salaries or any other distinguishable quality to allow higher prices. Also I would be watching the trends for anomalies within the housing stocks. Apartments on price per square meter have to be ridiculous compared to terrace, even before any underlying correction.

Reference the piece on BBC 6.30 news. The EA mentioned vendors should be realistic about HP's and accept £40k less for the properties. Hence the original price he was referring to must be of £200k range only. Was he referring to terrace house stock in particular that have been widely speculated by ROI speculators regardless religious tension etc? It might have been a quick edit from a long interview, Journo's do it all the time. Out of interest where is he based, East Belfast? Finally and again only IMO these terrace houses and apartments are going to be hammered the most, as well as houses out of kilter to the markets average. IMO house should always be priced on size of house and plot principally then quality of property, area on and on etc.

I think this was on the main thread once, but here it is again anyway

House Price Crash Calculator

http://img.thisismoney.co.uk/calculators/h...calculator.html