Experts predict a buyers' market for property investors in 2008

Thursday, January 03, 2008

By Helen Carson

Northern Ireland first-time buyers and investors alike will have the pick of the properties with more stable prices in 2008, it was claimed today.
Housing experts say it is still a buyers' market, despite the quarter of a per cent interest rate drop at the end of last year.
Conor Mallon, director of Newry-based Best Property Services, said: "It is a buyers' market and this year could offer first-time buyers the chance to get their first set of keys in their hands."
Mr Mallon said many buyers have adopted a 'wait and see' approach while sellers are unsettled by the lack of demand and are willing to look at reasonable offers.
"The ball is in the buyer's court and those who can identify the right level at which to pitch an offer to interest the seller could grab a property at good value," he added.
And there could be opportunities for investors too. Letting specialist Belvoir! say the current market conditions mean canny investors could snap up properties for the right price.
Mr Mike Goddard, chief executive of Belvoir! - which has offices in Belfast - said high demand for rental properties falling interest rates and rising rents means now is the time to buy.
"The canny investor is, indeed, rubbing his hands together at present, as there has never been a better time to invest in buy to let if you get it right," said Mr Goddard.
Meanwhile, Braemore Property Management is urging sellers struggling to get offers to consider renting out their property rather than selling.
Jo Gavigan, branch manager for the company, said: "Letting the property still allows you to generate some income towards mortgage payments while it still gains in capital - until the time is right to selling again."
Ms Gavigan said property in Belfast is still a sound investment with the buy-to-let market helping to fuel growth.

Dont have a link yet but Newsletter has article entitled "Falling prices bring hope for first time buyers" by Patrick Dougan and Laura Murphy. Estate agent Stevenson &Cumming - issuing leaflet advertising reduced prices in attempt to "lure people to take their first step on property ladder"

Tom McLelland says "The RICS and Ulster Bank survey shows that NI house prices fell at the end of 2007"

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/loc...icle3339606.ece

Helen spinning away - Radio Ulster spinning away.


If there were very few transactions in last 3 months and prices are dropping like a stone then there is bound to be more transactions as houses become affordable . But nil to 10 is still an increase in sales.

Note the disgust at the nasty gazunderers. Funny how the gazumpers were not treated with the same disgust by her.

Has anyone on here been in contact with Helen Carson recently? I remember on the main NI thread someone had entered into correspondance with her over an article - I think by telephone.

Maybe its time for someone to phone her up again and explain her reasoning behind the articles.

In Northern Ireland house price inflation fell from 32.5 in October to 17.6 per cent in November 2007

Reading this in the Times and all the other broadsheets - just how stupid does Helen Carson look now.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3193359.ece

More house price news
Jamie Delargy | 16 January 2008
Another house price report. More gloom in the market.

The RICS survey shows that the vast majority of estate agents reckoned prices fell in December. It's not possible to say by how much but indications are that it could be three per cent.

That's on top of the almost ten per cent fall from August to the end of November. Anyway what it seems to be showing is that the market continues to tumble.

Two economists I've spoke to in the last day or so estimate the average home will cost two hundred thousand pounds by the end of the year. That's a fall of twenty per cent or fifty thousand. My own view is that once investors lose faith in an asset, they'll continue to sell even when the fundamentals suggest they hold on. What means is that the market could undershoot just as it overshot.

Your emails suggest that opinion is divided on the future of the market. Some take the view that prices will be flat from here. Others hinting that the cost of homes is still too high.

Keep the comments coming. What are your predictions for average house prices by the end of 2008?

2007 saw fantastic Growth in House Prices - up over 25%.
This was partly down to the great work that Estate Agents have been putting in and realising the aspirational values of Northern Ireland's housing stock.

Although the economy is still on the up-and-up the macro-economic outlook has not followed our lead.
We expect the economy to pick-up again in Q2 next year with rampant economic growth.

The current lull in property transactions can be partly explained by Estate Agents taking a well-earned rest and also the fact that 2008 is a leap-year.
People normally adopt a wait and wait approach with property at this time of the 4 year cycle.
The Northern Ireland house market will be rising at 10 times wage inflation again before long - now is the time to quit your job and buy buy buy some property.

Copyright 2008 NIEAA

Explanation of recent negative House Price Inflation from the NI Estate Agents Association



I don't know what to say.

Don't know if this one has been posted before. Two stories in three days of falls in NI house prices!

http://u.tv/BusinessNews/index.asp?iBlogID...2008&next=1

[i]More house price news
Jamie Delargy | 16 January 2008
Another house price report. More gloom in the market.

The RICS survey shows that the vast majority of estate agents reckoned prices fell in December. It's not possible to say by how much but indications are that it could be three per cent.

That's on top of the almost ten per cent fall from August to the end of November. Anyway what it seems to be showing is that the market continues to tumble.

Two economists I've spoke to in the last day or so estimate the average home will cost two hundred thousand pounds by the end of the year. That's a fall of twenty per cent or fifty thousand. My own view is that once investors lose faith in an asset, they'll continue to sell even when the fundamentals suggest they hold on. What means is that the market could undershoot just as it overshot.

Your emails suggest that opinion is divided on the future of the market. Some take the view that prices will be flat from here. Others hinting that the cost of homes is still too high.

Keep the comments coming. What are your predictions for average house prices by the end of 2008?
Go on make your predictions in the comments!

Maybe this should be added into the Jamie Delargy thread as well!

in all seriousness Max....is that info you posted there a piss take???

in all seriousness Max....is that info you posted there a piss take???

So now even adverts are going to save the housing market????

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/homefind...icle3356444.ece

The housing market should then pickup in 2009 as the economic groth rebounds.

Article in Todays IN:

Click to view attachment

Nice find PP. I take it the IN is invest northern ireland? When was this published out of interest?

I wonder is this what the Ulster Bank-EA meeting was about pre-christmas:
(UB to EA's) 'Time to get real folks, your going to have to convince all those people out there that their two bed rabbit hutch is worth 20% less this year'
(EA's to UB) 'No problem we'll just slip them a few ipods and stop driving round in aston martins for a while'

Buy into this ecologically-friendly game reserve for the real African experience. Jane Hardy reports
Thursday, January 24, 2008

Are you game enough to invest in a wildlife reserve in Botswana? This is something completely different and emphatically not a question of choosing a second home in the conventional way, opting for a villa in Spain or Portugal and visiting twice a year to enjoy the golf, food and wine.

If you buy into the Limpopo- Lipadi project, and half the 300 shares have gone within a year, you are, according to managing director Alan Marneweck, investing in a new way of life.

"We say to people: don't buy in if you just want an investment, but if you want a change of lifestyle, join us," he said.

The project is green enough to gladden the heart of the most committed environmentalist.

"We use an eco-system sustainability model, constantly testing our resources and what is happening to them. For example, water is our greatest natural asset so we're always checking the levels in the reserve."

If they fall beneath a desirable level, the Marnewecks do their best to take appropriate action.

What you get in abundance with the Limpopo project is excitement. Your share, which costs €135,000 (£101,000), buys you a "gold share" stake in the company owning the reserve and everything in it, including the animals. So you become part-owner of ranches, lodges, transport, bush - and the odd wildebeest.

You are also free to come and go as often as you want, for up to two weeks at a time (longer if you buy more shares), and inspect your property. The only costs when you arrive are for food, drink and fuel. Then, if you want, you can learn how to become your own game ranger.

"We teach people the necessary skills to go out into the bush and not be scared, to enjoy the wildlife."

One of the ongoing projects at Limpopo-Lipadi, which covers 900 square kilometres of prime Botswanan territory, is the reintroduction of the most endangered "red data" species. Recently, they captured and darted some white rhino and brought them to the reserve, where conditions should be conducive to the animals' health and contentment. These are the first rhino in the area for 100 years.

They have also reintroduced lions. When the reintroduction occurs, shareholders join in and are given certain tasks. With the rhino job, Alan recalls asking one volunteer to keep cotton wool in the rhino's ear, to reduce stress, while another held the rope steering the animal's horn.

"It's a big job capturing a rhino, as they weigh several tons, and we needed several people to help. We aim to introduce a breeding herd of seven black rhino and six white rhino, since at the moment there are only 70 white rhinos and under ten black rhinos in the country."

Investing here provides the sort of dinner party anecdotes that are hard to beat.

Ted Newton, from Norfolk, is an enthusiastic owner of five shares in Limpopo. A chartered surveyor, farmer and property owner, he has long cherished the dream of buying into something like the Limpopo-Lipadi project.

"I had an inkling it would be in Botswana and eventually found details of this development in the African Geographic magazine. And before you ask, no, I hadn't read Alexander McCall Smith's novels set in the country, but I heard bits on the radio."

Mr Newton has involved himself impressively with the area, and took his mother (85) on a trip to see the site where he is going to build a house, investing around £200,000 in the process.

"We were made very welcome by the people there, and I must mention the Limpopo's excellent social responsibility programme which means they work in conjunction with local villages and schools. We met village leaders, teachers and a bishop; they made my mother very welcome, allowing themselves to be photo- graphed with her, although normally they don't like photos."

The lodge the Newtons will be building is in a glorious location beside the Limpopo river - the great, grey, green, greasy Limpopo river as Kipling dubbed it in the Just So stories.

"We aim to cause the least disruption to the landscape and before architect's plans can be drawn up, every tree on the site is being mapped."

They are following the African pattern of siting the bedrooms away from the living area, and will be working round a 13-foot high termite mound which may be thousands of years old.

"I'm very excited about this project, and would recommend it to anyone." Visit www.limpopo- lipadi for more information, telephone 0027 12349 2437.

They have also reintroduced lions
Investing here provides the sort of dinner party anecdotes that are hard to beat.
We say to people: don't buy in if you just want an investment, but if you want a change of lifestyle, join us...

Just one word of warning - Helen Caron is a VI(per)

Belfast tenth worst city in affordable homes table
Friday, January 25, 2008

By Emily Moulton

Belfast has the tenth least affordable housing market in the English-speaking world, according to a new US-based study.

Thus, in my view, the housing bubble in NI is under the greatest pressure and will burst spectacularly. The outcome will be far from pretty!

According to the Belfast Telegraph Botswana is the place to buy:
Homefinder Abroad: Beautiful Botswana beckons you 'home'

Massive boost for local property market
Published Date: 31 January 2008
Location: Derry

Massive boost for local property market

The North West property market has received a massive boost after one of Derry's biggest estate agencies reported significant growth in the market in January.
While house prices are not soaring ahead the way they were a year ago, last month saw the return to the market of more buyers.

Steven McCarron, the Managing Partner of Donnybrook estate agents, told the 'Journal' yesterday that sales in recent weeks had helped to life the market Hagain.

"There has been a marked improvement in the property market for the first time in three months.

"Whilst prices have dropped back to a level last seen about 18 months ago we can now see signs of positive recovery. For example a property that would have been making £195,000 at the peak of the market is now selling for £175,000 to £180,000.The key word being 'selling' as opposed to just sitting on the market," said Mr McCarron.

He went on: "These figures are more realistic and obviously more affordable. It is clear to me that first time buyers are now able to enter the market and the signs are good for them with another potential interest rate reduction on the horizon.

"Potential purchasers should also be aware of the fireside Estate Agents and Financial analysts who are advocating people holding off because the market will fall further risk losing out and getting caught up in the rush.

"My advice is this...can anybody remember the last time a home could be bought for sub £100,000?

"Well it is now a reality and our clients Hagan Homes are selling property from under £100,000 at The Old Fort, Strathfoyle and this will only last for a limited period.

"In my opinion the market is on the rise again."

The renewed confidence comes just days after a Sunday Times survey gave
a boost to the property market in Co Donegal.

While other parts of the Republic may see prices fall in the next year, Donegal home prices will stay steady, thanks to a lower price base.

In the most comprehensive survey ever seen in the housing market in Ireland, experts predict prices here will not fall over the next 12 months.

The report says people buying homes now - in all categories - will not lose value over the next 12
months due to the low price base in the county compared to rest of the Republic.

More movement of buyers from Derry has helped to maintain prices.
Anthony Arthur of Letterkenny based Liberty Properties told us: "This reflects what we have seen in January. Yes, people are shopping around, but we are selling houses OK.

"The problem is that people see prices drop in Dublin or Belfast and think that's them, but Donegal is unique. It is almost a separate entity when it comes to house prices and value for money in this county is still superb.

"Stories in Dublin or London newspapers bear no resemblance to the market here. We sold two new homes out of our portfolio last week to first time buyers who were extremely happy with what they got.

"The fact that prices will not drop here over the next year shows a positive future for the Donegal property market and we're delighted by that."

The full article contains 552 words and appears in n/a newspaper.
Last Updated: 31 January 2008 6:41 PM

"And those who held off making their purchases because of falling prices will make a judgment in the early part of the year as to whether the time is then right to enter the market."

an estate agent is quoted as allegedly saying that prices have returned to normal

If they told you wolverines make good house pets, would you believe them?

It is certainly more believable that wolverines make good housepets than that prices have returned to normal. I was wary of quoting this estate agent verbatim as there has been previous history so edited my post.

Sorry, didn't mean to be overly sarcastic, its so frustrating listening to them crow that all is well. The problem is people do believe them. At work, a number of people have been advising me that now would be a good time to buy. Buy now and get a bargain before the market gets busy again in the Spring etc... One chap however, who has semi-retired, and more worldwise said simply only a fool would buy at the minute