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What cave on Neptune is this idiot living in.

Recovery to an Estate Agent is rather different to recovery for a house seller.

we really do just go round and round in circles don't we

****** recovery you capaltilistic *******
its you lot that are making it hard for FTB to buy

i hope there is a massive crash and you ******* rot on the street in a wet card board box in financial hell

no offence!!

Do you read housepricechat zzg? Warren BuffetCar Stumbled accross that one too.


liar thief twit

i dont see it happening. I just came from the mchughe residental property auction in london today and it was simply rammed full. people were in a frenzy and i was gobsmacked by some of the bidders. theres still alot of life left in the market judging by today.

I agree, still life in the old dog yet

I was thinking in December and January we had finally arrived (HPC) after far too long trawling these boards. But in the last couple of weeks I have had too many bad news stories to believe it is quite dead yet.

First two people in our office bought properties, one a flat in East Grinstead and the other a two bed terrace somewhere on the outskirts of Birmingham for some crazy prices.

Next an Italian mate in Greenford W London calls me up and says “I’m moving back to Bristol”. Ah I say “you need to sell the flat fist not so easy in this market”. Already done he tells me, took less than a week and got full asking price. Gobsmacked wasn’t in it as he got more for his 2 bed flat than I would have priced my 4 bed in Surrey at.

Next a fellow manager in Yorkshire where I now live comes into my office to show me his house on Rightmove last Monday morning. Comes back on Thursday to let me know it has sold, again at full asking price.

This weekend it got even worse when a Policeman friend of ours called to tell Mrs Clueless he has just purchased a flat in Reigate @ 170K on his own ???? no joint mortgage.

I’m thinking I need a new hobby because house price watching is starting to feel like supporting Halifax Town.

I agree with you Clueless.

Over the past few weeks I have made a few posts on here suggesting there ain't no crash at the moment. All this seems to do is to make people upset - like they don't want to hear it !!

The market did drop from Sept - Dec, but now seems to be recovering. It seems the market is at best pretty flat and at worst (from our point of view) is rising slightly.

At the moment we have our soft landing !

The issue is what is going to tip it over the edge ? i.e. what will make sellers en masse lower their asking price ?

It seems the BoE is gearing up to put up IRs another 0.25%, quite possibly in March following the recent growth in consumer borrowing and the more bullish news on property. But I don't think this will be enough either.

I am looking out for a bigger economic jolt - one that really hits alot of people in their pocket. But I'm not sure where its coming from.

Without it, the financial situation isn't going to change and therefore sentiment won't change.

When I'm talking to people, there are quite a few just ploughing on looking at buying houses. People seem to have got used to high house prices and just accept them as normal now.

It appears it is the younger end (and therefore on lower salaries, less savings) who have given up for the time being.

yep well it was always going to pick up a bit in the spring.

Thats why Im looking at the evidence again..

Two houses sold in my aunts road recently.. About 320-350K Wembley

Friend of mine bought a BTL IO. Lewisham

Another friend put in an Offer for a 4 bed house 2760K, SE5.

I know that that it should go down.. But as Greenspan once famously said "irrational exuberance" is the cause.

I think that by May/June the situation will be clear. If we get continued bad news (good for Bears) then I will be convined that the downturn is for real. If we get good news between now and then I will be really confused. Given that the supply of viable BTL and monied FTBs is estinguished (according to HPC lore) I think we would have to think about reviewing the rest of the HPC doctrine

Patience...

We have a general election coming up and plenty of fools in this country.
Rate hikes are on the cards

and once again to emphasise... plenty of fools in this country.

Read the new paper in one of the other threads.... take the evidence around you and the writing is on the wall.

The media are now becoming so bearish, vested interrests are being exposed, and slowly people ARE waking up.... take this site for example.

I'm in my mid 20's without a hope in hell, but it will be our turn, we're at a turning point in time

Come on guys, so what? There's more mugs in the UK than we had previously thought. The higher it goes the harder it will fall. It might go up for a couple more years, I don't care, I'm still better off renting.

Psychology hasn't been dented yet. But it will be eventually. I am not a gambler, I don't have to tell you exactly when it will fall, it just will.

I would also bear in mind that property always sells, and there's always people who pay 100% of asking price. It's the bigger picture that counts, and for that we need the OPDM data. Transactions still look low, and that is more telling.

Depressing news from the Nationwide yesterday, and depressing the way these VI press releases are swallowed whole by the press. But you have to look behind the spin and the seasonal adjustments. The most telling comment recently for my money has been one at the end of Feb by the bloke at the National Association of Estate Agents - he said that FTBs are at a "dangerously low level". So far as I know that hasn't changed, and I continue to believe that a market without FTBs can't function. Moreover transaction volumes are at a very low level, as they were - according to Oxford academic Andrew Farlow - before the last crash started. When you are looking for a trigger for all this you look at affordability. We know it is affecting FTBs, and it must also be affecting those who depend on a FTB sale as part of the chain. Perhaps that's why transaction volumes are down. Data is lumpy. There was always going to be a spring bounce. Anecdotal evidence means nothing. What happens when the spring bounce has passed?

Very good points, but IMHO this does not point to a recovery yet. Not by a long way.

We all know that in any market where reduced volumes are trading that stats should be taken with a large pinch of salt, as data is skewed.

Why is current data stronger than expected, IMHO:

25% of housing transactions are for cash, no mortgage. These buyers are usually the ones who are looking at the top end of the market (at least probably not FTB territory unless downsizing). If you are wealthy enough to buy for cash it is unlikely that you are looking at FTB type properties.

If FTBs and BTL desert the market (not entirely but mainly) then transactions that do take place are likely to be among the higher priced properties, which would skew the sales figures upwards. If no flats sold at all, but more expensive properties change hands, then average sale figures over a month will be artificially high (on reduced volume).

FTBs and BTL can desert the market, but the market can still stay fluid for a time.
If people have a property that they cannot sell, many are still buying and letting out their old property (won't continue for long), or taking bridging loans so they can get their dream home in the hope that they will sell soon.

All of these things are a very temporary fix. They stretch people financially. Many of these people already have significant debts. Soon it will become a big problem.

It is happenning, just be patient.

Nothing wrong in supporting Halifax Town!

I was just making a point, no offence against Halifax Town.

Growing up as a kid in Halifax every one was always waiting for the year Halifax actually had a good season …… never happened. Similar to the current extent of this HPC, lots of potential but not too much in the results area.

No offence taken. I know what you mean about waiting for a HPC and waiting for Halifax Town to have a good season. However we are having a good season this year so ....

Bruno Powroznik has always said that the HPC would come after the election, and the following credit crunch and rate hikes. He also advised not to get too excited by a few months of decline at the end of last year.

Just imagine if Bruno had been right all along. He'd be the Alan Turing and Nostradamus of this site all rolled into one...

Hold it everyone. First everyone says that there would never be a spring bounce and now everyone is saying "well, there was always going to be a spring bounce but it wait till its over then what".

The question is whether the activity in the market that is being seen is real activity or the marriage of two myopic parties on either side of the deal. There are plenty of people who believe that the prices are justifiable and, therefore, are quite happy paying the prices...

We won't know the real story for quite a few weeks to come - well after Summer when the Land Registry stats emerge.

Bears, please stop postponing the crash, you are like the Wildebeast attempting to cross the river to get to better pastures. Some go first and make it. Some get eaten by Crocs on the way. BUT YOU, YOU JUST KEEP HOLDING BACK UNTIL YOU THINK ITS SAFE, AND UPON FINNALY MAKING THE CROSSING YOU FIND ALL THE GOOD GRASS HAS BEEN SCOFFED.

Dogbox early December 2004;

'Buy or cry guys, mop up the December low sentiment bargains before the jittery herd gets twitchy about being left behind again, the bargains will be gone by Febuary'.

Affordability - not a problem as long as your not a lifestyle jerk ("waaa waaaa waaaaa why cant I buy in London, its not fair, waa, waa, I dont want to buy a 1 bed flat on the outskirts, lifes so unfair waa")

Mortgage availability - youve never had it so good, do your research properly, dont be a slave to guidelines

Low IRs - AND LOW FIXED RATES!! (so rises irrelevant u pantsplashers)

No fundamental economic jolt

Rising NET population

More singles

Parents buying for kids

Shortage of stock due to expanding rental sector

B2L are stubborn long - termists

Pensions / Shares distrust

Keep posting dogbox, thats priceless.

I'm *happy* renting.

I'm past giving a t0ss about UK house prices.

If they come down I'll buy. If they stay high I'll leave the UK.

But they will be coming down.

Fixed IR loans won't help as most people are stretching affordability and thus go for discounted not fixed mortgages.

If every OO in the UK fixed their mortgage for full term during 2003 and didn't MEW then just maybe your argument could hold up. But they didn't, infact very, very few did.

My landlord is also a builder. He is a fairly frank and truthful person. The other day I chatted to him about house prices. He is convinced they will carry on rising. His comment to me was when I manage to move, me and my g/f should get a house BEFORE they boom in 2006 due to SIPPs (property in pensions).

I totally believe he is genuine. There is no advantage in him encouraging me to buy in a totally different city. He's not the kind of guy to talk up the market if he didn't believe it.

Now my point is, he is not stupid, he's been in the game a long time, and he says, who wants to invest in the stockmarket, there's too much distrust and uncertainty. He thinks housing is the way to go.

I think his comment about SIPPs is interesting. Even if they have been fairly dismissed on this forum as a distraction and irrelevance, perhaps joe public ignorantly thinks they will make a difference.


I tell you it is quite distrubing to hear someone intelligent and experienced expressing such a contrary view.

Perhaps SIPPs will continue the boom and then be a big scandal when it crashes after that? ;-)

I recall reading on The Motley Fool's equivalent of this forum that even during crash years, prices always rise in the first half of the year.

Has anyone a graph of the last crash that's not a smoothed off small scale one but which shows the monthly up and down movements within each year?

I think that might reassure us that even during a down trend there is occasional upward movement.

Graph anyone?

Ahhhhh,

My point is that current buyers can fix at good and historically low rates, so the fact rates may rise is not a deterrent to buy.

I have to agree I'm amazed there was so litle take up of the 25 yr fixed mortgages at 5% that were available a few years ago.

It seems to me that most people believe low-ish interest rates are here to stay for a while.

(Please no-one come back and say that with low inflation real rates are quite high)

I called a specialist SIPPS firm in Leicester to get the facts. I was told u can borrow 75% of a property value via mortgage as long as 25% sum was held in cash in a SIPP.

Bears often say people need huge sums in SIPPs but if the above advice is correct this is not the case. There are loads of flats in cheaper areas where the 25% cash portion would only need to be approx £15000. Loads of Self - employed people are piling lump sums into SIPPS according to the advisers, often using property equity drawings.

Yes, these are the CURRENT rules (which only apply to commercial property, not residential).

When the NEW SIPP rules are introduced in April 2006 you will only be allowed to borrow 50% of the sum of cash in the fund (e if you have £100k in the fund you will only be llowed to buy a property for a maximum of £150k, if you have £200k you can only buy a property for a maximum of £300k, etc) to buy residential property.




It is not.

Ahhh,

My point is that while long term fixed rates are available to todays FTBer, they are at significantly higher rates than many other mortgage products that are available. If people are stretching themselves, and affordability, in order to buy... guess which mortgage they choose???

Most are going for short term discounted rates with nasty tie ins to SVRs.
Oh, and many are only managing to get these on IO mortgages.

The public just aren't looking at future affordability when taking out these mortgages, they are only working out what it costs them each month when they first start paying.... end of discounted rates, IR rises - they'll deal with those later.


I know of several people who are buying at present (not good, I know). Both are buying a place that is at a better price than last year by a significant amount (due to falling HPs). But they have both taken on IO mortgages on initial discounted rates, as that is the only way they can afford the monthly repayments.

What happens to them when IRs rise?
Or taxes rise?
Or the price of goods goes up faster than the inflationary measure (and their wages)?

Can you answer that dogbox, can you?

Yet in another thread you state that on the basis of 2 incomes affordability is no problem.

Your points are poorly thought out and contradictory at best.

I find the mantra 'i'm in it for the long term' utterly fascinating. The BTL herd appear to have no concept of trading and rotating investments to achieve better returns and appear to employ no trading or stop-loss strategy to what are effectively leveraged investments. I hear that 1/5 of all BTL are now subsidising their 'investments' on a monthly basis.

If a company in which I own shares came knocking at my door for money every month, I would have no hesitation in 'releasing the hounds'.

I think there is a strong economic argument for house prices going nowhere in the next 20 years - see my signature. Long term investment my @rse!

This is really going to screw the ppl who opted out of a pension for bricks & mortar.

Your signature implies that house prices will more than double over the next 20 years. That zero growth you mention is zero growth after inflation. 2% inflation per year for 20 years adds 121% to house prices over that period -- not quite "going nowhere". Although not a good return on investment, either.

Your argument is just about justifiable for someone who bought there house entirely for cash, but for the vast majority of buyers they will be paying interest rates well above the rate of inflation on the mortgage, so even if hp grow at 0 versus inflation the home owner has still handed over tens of thousands to the bank in interest.

On a £150k initial mortage about £80k worth at current rates. That's quite a loss!!!

If it's only gone up with inflation then it hasn't actually gone up in value in relation to all other costs so I'd say that's 'going nowhere', as an investment it won't have made you anything over inflation.

I'm going straight to the shops to buy up all their bread which i'll then freeze for 20 years. Then I'll defrost it and sell it for at least double what I paid. Foolproof investment and of course there's no chance of a bread price crash.

Money illusion is one hell of a concept, dont you think?

5 year fixed rate Nationwide - 4.95%
5 year fixed rate Northern Rock 5.19% (or 10 yrs +)

As for discounted rates no one I know plumps for one with a tie - in after the discount ends, they simply remo.

Your problem is u see the world as a place of danger and risk where everything has a downside. Doesnt look like you will setting up your own business, errr ... ever.