I've got to be one of the longest standing and least active (post-wise) members of this forum. I even remember the old-old-site of black and white colouring back when HPC first started up and then the exodus from the FT Forum. So I've been around a bit!

Not really posted here for a while or kept tabs on the forum until today, although I use the newsblog regularly.

Anyway - it's good to see things going the bears way recently and I fully expect to see 5-10% falls next year, followed by a prolonged 20-30% drop (although this may not be nominal due to inflation, which I expect to take care of the largest proportion of that fall).

However, havng been away for a while and then re-read this forum today, I can see what the old bulls of yesteryear meant when they said that this place was not the real world and that we were convincing ourselves into a HPC.

OK it's not as bad as all that - the HPC is pretty much hear and I believe almost a certainty, but the depth of bearishness here has reached new levels.

I don't believe we are facing financial armagedon, meltdown or even depression - sure recession, but things really aren't as bad as some posters seem to believe.

All I'm saying is that, hes house prices will probably fall, and by a fair amount, but it's not as doomridden outside as you think.

No disrespect intended to anyone on here, but if you're to make this thing work for you, you need to remember that it's not only the peeps outside who can behave like sheep, sometimes the madness of crowds can be applied to smaller gated communities - or perhaps even internet forums?

Like I said, no disrespect, just a comment - please take it in the spirit it was intended

Heh, while I would absolutely totally want to agree with you....
It is a well known and totally excepted fact that the UK and US economies have been built entirely out of bricks and mortar, but the big bad wolf doesn't seem to care whether they are made of straw or bricks.

Indeed. Spot on there. If you listened to some of the posts on here you'd be camped out in your basement, sat on a pile of gold eating canned spam and your own grown vegetables taking pot shots at people that walked by.

Yep, I know someone who is doing just that. I've been on this forum since 2004. I agree, it's full of cult fodder. Get a grip people. BTW, I want to see a HPC.

Perhaps you oldies have just neglected to move with the times. Your thinking sounds a little 2004ish to me. Get with it, catch up and don't berate others who have either stuck with the site or joined later. Personally I just think you are SO yesterday...... When did you last stare in the face a CDO or an SIV or a CDS? Get with it!

Indeed.

I agree with these posts and I've just signed up having been reading posts on the site most weeks for years. I always thought a lot of sense was being said but I just kind of thought it was all wishful thinking.

My biggest turn off this site were total doom-mongers. I don't think the economy will go up in smoke - certainly not for economic/house price reasons (maybe global catastrophe/climate change/terrorism/war) though a "modest" correction in house prices seems sensible and self-evident.

My guess is that house prices will drop over the next couple of years by up to 20% (depending on region) and, given inflation, will be felt as a substantial drop.

FWIW, I agree with your prediction.

I remember the old forum too and I remember the property market at the time making me a very angry bloke.

These days I just don't care anymore. Renting is much cheaper than buying, so I rent.

(the old forum was much funnier though, anyone want to own up to being Evil Sam?)

I agree. The old forum was much funnier and much more relaxed. Now it's full of paranoid idiots.

I see your spelling and grammar hasn't improved over time TBH I reckon the twists and turns on the HPC forum and the co-operative help in unravelling the deep worm hole of international finance into 'normal speak' has made HPC a fascinating read over the past 3 years and a 'real time' education for many who simply do not have the time or expertise to dig out such vital info. Plenty of contributors have not only enjoyed but also benefited from HPC. I have to say it's one of the cheapest shots to aim at the HPC crowd; "Oh look a bunch of fringe loonies constantly talking about a house price crash that never happens..." As always the title of the forum/site undermines the breadth of the subject matter discussed and the overall level of debate; which is arguably only bettered/equalled by the FT forum and the Fool.

And whatever happened to The Monkey? Remember him?

Yep I've chilled too - renting for me has actually helped my career take off, so I really can't complain. I now am married and have a kid - GOD! I've got old! Methinkshe you're right, where's me tin hat and anderson shelter.....

(Evil Sam LOL! How about MintedBTL - now there was a gent, a total bull, but a gent! Wonder how many current bulls are like that now!)

Cult fodder.

Got fed up waiting and bought a house!

......talk about crawling out of the woodwork! All these "lurkers" turned members who have apparently been hanging around since 2004 and now offer a timid opinion that they don't think house prices will fall very much. Okay guys, I defer to you ... I've only been a member here for three months, but at least I joined before the bleeding obvious! You lot have just about caught up with it and now want to protest that you've always been here, and all along you believed in a HPC but just a little bit of a one, and now aren't we overdoing it....

Okay, I may be a newcomer, but you're going to have to have a lot more interesting stuff to say than just bleat about how you've been looking for 3 years and only now have decided to respond in a wish-washy sort of way bfore I take any notice of your posts.

Merry Christmas.

I remember him. I used to speak to him on MSN messenger quite a bit. Nice guy all in all. Bought a house, benefited from HPI. Was he right?

Hello mate!

Yep spelling and grammar still very poor especially when I'm on the PDA! Like I said at the time Dyslexia sucks

You're right of course the HPC name undermines credibility a fair bit, but on the flip side it attracts bears/bulls/attention. From a non-profitmaking perspective it would have been better to have a more neutral name in retrospect - but hey, I'd never have found it without it's current title!

I think he bought a house. He's stuck in a barret box somewhere in the Midlands tonight watching telly and getting bored of his broody missus. Still, I'm sure he's happy.

I wonder what happened to MintedBTL? ZZG113 was another good poster that moved on - last I heard he (she?) was in China.

I would love to know what happened to Evil Sam. He only ever posted in the middle of the night and was absolutley scathing at times. You were only just on the radar when you were called a retard - but you knew you had really made it when you got the full, 'Reeeeeeeetttaaaard' treatment. I did once. My proudest HPC moment.

I tried creating an article on a blackberry once and making it live, caught out by the rss feed making it go live as I wrote while thinking, doh!

That will be me then!!!

Happy Christmas!

Good post.

I was a long time lurker before I joined. This site has plenty of 'sheep' who don't realise they are sheep but are happy to label others as such.

Baz

Erm.....mate....ermm......look at my profile and you'll see I re-joined in September 2004, that was about a month after the old-old-site got converted to the old-site (had to rejoin) which again got converted to this new site when Fubra took over.....ok that was confusing....just look at my profile:

Posts: 180
Joined: 10-September 04

He was smoking, as I remember.

Well, was he right? It must have been about 2004 wasn't it? It wouldn't take much of a drop round my way for him to be stuck.

Nope, cheap shot.

CL keeps the board sane - and makes us laugh.

Hear hear! Quick, go out and build your Anderson shelters.

I'm on an old JASJAR I bought in 2005 - still good - but running Win Mobile 2006 which sucks. The Opera browser is pretty good though but writing recognition doesn't seem to work that well and the QWERTY keyboard doesn't like my fat fingers

Cult fodder.

Like I said, had many conversations with him on MSN. Very nice guy, happy with his wife and his decision to buy. Not happy with HPC. His name is Nick.

You jest, but there was once quite a serious thread about buying an island to get away from the coming Armageddon:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...8&hl=laptop

I only ask because i guess I held off buying in about 2004 and now I think i could afford to go into the market at 2004 prices so that is what I would look for. I was thinking the market might crash around then (house prices seemed to have gone through the roof) but now here I am thinking that a drop to 2004 levels would be incentive enough.

Never got slated by ES - I really, really tried! Damn you must feel proud! Scared the Sh1t out of me though...

ZZG113! Yep good poster. As for Minted, last I heard was that he was taking a leave of absence after a death of friend, the next thing was that some poster said he'd seen his E-type outside some of his properties...then nothing....doubt he'd have gone bankrupt the guy was probably worth millions! He used to rub me up the wrong way sometimes, although I gotta say it was mostly down to his upper-class nature as the guy was a gent underneath it all.

Just the other day, Alistair Darling said on Channel 4 news, when asked about Northern Rock, "how were we supposed to know that within a few weeks of some people defaulting on some mortgages in Florida, this would happen..."
Unbelievable! Stupid or a liar? Given that our chancellor is talking like that, I'd rather consider financial opinions on this forum (and not take all as bible truth of course) than elsewhere. One year ago, I read on this forum that some 100 mortage companies had gone to the wall in the States, all due to their borrow short, lend long model, hence, people here on HPC knew that NR was an accident waiting to happen. Indeed, had I sold my NR shares (windfall, didn't pay for them) at the point that people here were saying they were toast (Feb-ish), I'd be a few grand better off!

Financial armageddon? Probably not but some people I very much respect in this country and Switzerland with over 30 years in finance tell me this is the worst time they've ever seen for uncertainty, worse than 1987 when it became clear within a matter of a month which parts of the mud had the poisons hatching out.

Brilliant!

But this is still my favourite HPC nutter post:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...=57711&st=0

Baz

Wow, the search function on this forum is good - found a post from old MintedBTL back in 2004 and where he went:




Post: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...mp;hl=mintedbtl

The thing about ES was that he actually did know a lot. He was the first on here to talk about the carry trade for example. ZZG was another knowledgeable poster that I'd like to see return.

I'd like to hear from Minted again. I wonder how things worked out for him? Some of the bulls back then were at least colourful. In recent times BBB was quite a laugh too. Unfortunately, as an unrepentant bull, he got hounded off. I know he could be a bit of an ar$ehole at times, but it was only ever in response to the grief he got. He could actually be quite funny. Wonder how he is doing?

...the difference is there were no triple 'A' rated poisoned wraps back in 2004...just HPI....in fact the crashes in the 80's 70' and 30's had no poisoned wraps ...we are entering unknown territory, where even the lenders don't know where or when the losses will really hit them.....

I think I just wet myself - that's the best nutter post ever!

Yeah, I guess.

Although being part of a cult can stop you chewing yourself up over past decisions.

Cheap shot?

Yep would love to know where some of those guys went - guess I never will though!

Damn I must get off to bed!!! I'm a dad now............

Reading that thread reminds me of Bubble Trouble. He was another knowledgeable belligerant sod - wonder what happened to him?

Like I said, dissenters are outed. Classic. You are just the type of person they are looking for.

Bubble Trouble went and set up 'Pricedout' I believe.

Really? Are you sure you don't mean Double Bubble Trouble?

Genius

Sorry! Right you are. It was Double Bubble Trouble. Can't keep up with all these bubble trouble posters!

Yeah, that's what you thought. Unfortunately, the likes of me have been predicting a global financial implosion for at least a decade - we looked at the debt and couldn't believe easy money could further inflate the credit bubble ...it was to the mind of oldies like me beyond the bound of sensible government and straying into the downright irresponsible, and one doesn't expect that those who purport to run countries could ever be so charged. However, following the Greenspan put and like manoeuvres from other central banks, I have changed my mind and I now believe that those in government will do ANYTHING to save their rotten skins, which is why I believe that although deflation is the obvious cure for our current woes, given even half of a half of a half per cent chance, our self-seeking governors will go for that and the inflation that will inevitably ensue. In other words, I have totally lost faith with government of whatever hue..

Ah Bubble Trouble-used to go at it some!

Funy thing is reading that old post by minted actually shows me that I was wrong back then and he was right! Now I expect HPs to drop back to 2004 prices, but back then I thought they'D go back to 2001 prices! As I recall Minted only thought HPs started to look overvalued wrt rents in 2004 and he stopped buying. Damn! Ah well we all have 20:20 with hindsight!

right I'm off to bed!

Aye, credit where it's due. Minted was right. I really hope he isn't too leveraged now though.

....yeah ...but ..that's the same as the 80's 70's and 30's ...people lost faith in government then also....but these guys didn't have the sting of the poisoned wraps ...they had the explosion of credit ..they had the lax lending ..they even had bank's being rescued....but they have not see anything yet....hold your breath..!..

I've only been on here six months. The news alerts are excellent, but the loonies tend to shout the loudest - gold bugs and 'no-arguing-with-me' nationalists annoy me especially. Climate changers aren't so bad, because I know they're only guessing.

But maybe those who expect that inflation will compensate for house price drops are the looniest of the loons: the desired result could come about through severe wage increases, but the only way is through a freeze on immigration from the Commonwealth countries and a raising of EU trade barriers to counter the effect of cheap Asian labour. Britain's politicians will never be allowed to go for it.