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CrashedOutAndBurned
One thing I’ve noticed speaking to people at work, friends, friends of friends in that there are people thinking about buying that simply do not think like people on this forum. That’s probably slowing down the crash party a little.

People on this forum may hold very different in viewpoints and draw different conclusions, but all take an interest in their money, wider political and economic conditions.

Most people simply don’t. Full stop. It can be frustrating as people who are intelligent suddenly turn into slack-jawed morons when the topic turns to the housing market.

Here’s what I’ve noticed:

Many people consider high house prices in a vacuum, without considering historic fluctuations, the role of easy credit, unchecked speculation, and all the other things that are bread and butter for hpc.co.uk readers. When they see a tiny, moulding converted flat for 130k, that’s instantly what it’s ‘worth’, they don’t know or care that it cost 42k in 1999 and is still the same miserable pile of bricks. If they get an offer of 125k accepted, they’ll think they’ve landed themselves a huge bargain.

To them, housing costs are just another thing that ‘everyone knows’ goes ‘up and up’, like the council tax, or the gas bill. Something to sigh about and then get on with things. If they could borrow eight times their income they would. It’s not a question of ignoring the evidence pointing towards a crash, it’s that they simply haven’t sought it out. That’s why when you mention it they look at you as if you’re spinning a yarn about the JFK assassination.

I spoke to one chap in his late twenties on a little short of 20k who’s been saving for a flat for several years and has around 30k. He would end up with a mortgage of 100k for a one bed flat. He hates shared houses and living ‘like a student’. Fair enough.
He now knows some lenders would probably cough up the cash he needs. I said it might be good to wait as prices were flat and even slipping in many areas.
He said ‘I can’t get negative equity because I’m going to put down 30k’.
I didn’t want to say that might not be enough ‘buffer’ and sound like some extremist, so asked if he’d be happy to see the money he’d scrimped for years and years to save just evaporate in a falling market.
‘Well, when I buy, I’ll stay there ‘long term’’.
(Funny how that ‘long term’ is the knee-jerk meejduh phrase on everyone’s lips, kinda like the phrase ‘drift back to work’ was the key phrase of the miner’s strike. ‘It’s over - there’s a drift back to work’, ‘You’re ok, think ‘long term’. ‘Look into my eyes, not around the eyes, right, you’re under’).
Basically, as soon as he had enough deposit and could find someone to lend him a huge mortgage he couldn’t wait to dive in. He doesn’t seem to have much idea that interest rates have risen and could rise more, or that earnings ratios are historically high, or that mortgage approvals have plummeted. But he can reel off the idea that ‘long term’ stops ‘negative equity’.

‘How long, is “long term”’, I asked?

‘Oh, 2-3 years’
Someone here said the crash is currently like the cartoons where someone dashes off a cliff and hangs there for ages before they realise their fate. That’s pretty much the state of play. The crash is here. It just needs blokes like this to start looking down.
red
QUOTE(CrashedOutAndBurned @ Feb 28 2005, 07:21 PM)
One thing I’ve noticed speaking to people at work, friends, friends of friends in that there are people thinking about buying that simply do not think like people on this forum. That’s probably slowing down the crash party a little.

People on this forum may hold very different in viewpoints and draw different conclusions, but all take an interest in their money, wider political and economic conditions.

Most people simply don’t. Full stop. It can be frustrating as people who are intelligent suddenly turn into slack-jawed morons when the topic turns to the housing market.

Here’s what I’ve noticed:

Many people consider high house prices in a vacuum, without considering historic fluctuations, the role of easy credit, unchecked speculation, and all the other things that are bread and butter for hpc.co.uk readers. When they see a tiny, moulding converted flat for 130k, that’s instantly what it’s ‘worth’, they don’t know or care that it cost 42k in 1999 and is still the same miserable pile of bricks. If they get an offer of 125k accepted, they’ll think they’ve landed themselves a huge bargain.

To them, housing costs are just another thing that ‘everyone knows’ goes ‘up and up’, like the council tax, or the gas bill. Something to sigh about and then get on with things. If they could borrow eight times their income they would. It’s not a question of ignoring the evidence pointing towards a crash, it’s that they simply haven’t sought it out. That’s why when you mention it they look at you as if you’re spinning a yarn about the JFK assassination.

I spoke to one chap in his late twenties on a little short of 20k who’s been saving for a flat for several years and has around 30k. He would end up with a mortgage of 100k for a one bed flat. He hates shared houses and living ‘like a student’. Fair enough.
He now knows some lenders would probably cough up the cash he needs. I said it might be good to wait as prices were flat and even slipping in many areas.
He said ‘I can’t get negative equity because I’m going to put down 30k’.
I didn’t want to say that might not be enough ‘buffer’ and sound like some extremist, so asked if he’d be happy to see the money he’d scrimped for years and years to save just evaporate in a falling market.
‘Well, when I buy, I’ll stay there ‘long term’’.
(Funny how that ‘long term’ is the knee-jerk meejduh phrase on everyone’s lips, kinda like the phrase ‘drift back to work’ was the key phrase of the miner’s strike. ‘It’s over - there’s a drift back to work’, ‘You’re ok, think ‘long term’. ‘Look into my eyes, not around the eyes, right, you’re under’).
Basically, as soon as he had enough deposit and could find someone to lend him a huge mortgage he couldn’t wait to dive in. He doesn’t seem to have much idea that interest rates have risen and could rise more, or that earnings ratios are historically high, or that mortgage approvals have plummeted. But he can reel off the idea that ‘long term’ stops ‘negative equity’.

‘How long, is “long term”’, I asked?

‘Oh, 2-3 years’
Someone here said the crash is currently like the cartoons where someone dashes off a cliff and hangs there for ages before they realise their fate. That’s pretty much the state of play. The crash is here. It just needs blokes like this to start looking down.
*


We all know people like this, eh. Rational minded in all other respects but with a 'blind spot' when it comes to property.
The culture of home ownership and its elevation within society to a must-have status symbol is also partly responsible for the boom/bust. My parents were immigrants to the UK and bought a house when all around were renting happily. they are watching with open-mouths as I STR and fail to grasp the idea that my weekly rent will be less than my house will be losing in 'value' if I keep it.
But we are a minority, I agree with you. FTBs are being brainwashed and misled into neg. equity and I want to shake them all very hard until the penny drops...!
Van
A good post, COAB. As with everything concerning the property market, these things don't hit home until a few years down the line, when circumstances start to change. Your friend might want to trade up in 3 or 4 years and find that NE is stopping him. The same for a million other recent FTBs. Unemployment can't stay this low forever, and once it creeps up, some families will find out the hard way what their houses are really worth. Likewise, more and more women are putting off motherhood until later in life to get on the property ladder, and that can't continue indefinitely.

Most people probably don't even understand what negative equity is, and public opinion lags the true state of affairs. At the moment, some FTBs are jumping into the market, thinking they've landed a bargain because it's 5% off last summer's prices. It might take next year's FTB-fodder to see that this year's FTBs are WORSE off before the message REALLY starts to sink in.
Loanshark
Some people seem to WANT to pay a lot of money for a property, i have witnessed people 'boasting' that they have just paid £250,000 for a basic 2 bed flat. i guess somewhere in their head they FEEL £1/4M RICHER having just got a 99% mortgage they do not see the debt at all !
Cassandra
QUOTE(CrashedOutAndBurned @ Feb 28 2005, 07:21 PM)
‘How long, is “long term”’, I asked?

‘Oh, 2-3 years’

*


One of the problems is that many people (including...admit it...some bears) think that this will all be over in a couple of years. Then it will simply seem like a bad dream. With this HPC interest rates are low, unemployment is low, debt is very, verey high. Net result is that it might take many, many years to reach the bottom and many more years for prices to climb up again. Because this has not happened in the UK is no guarantee that it won't happen this time. The risk is that someone maxxing out now on a mortgage risks either (i) repossession or (ii) being stuck in the same property for the next 20 years.

Has anyone been to Japan in the last few years? Go into any of the major public parks. Large areas of tents usually of blue plastic (standard colour of tarpaulins sold in the major hardware stores such as Konan). Occuped by sararyman (ie white colour workers) fallen on hard times. Unlike British Tramps (maybe with the exception of Charlie) they have a sense of pride such that their new "homes" or immaculate. Clothes neatly hanging outside. No litter. In some cases even electricity!! But it is not a pleasant existence. Income seems to be mainly collecting aluminium cans for recycling. In Japan it is oppressively cold in the summer and frezing in the winter.

However these guys had good jobs and good houses or flats. Unfortunately this will be the fate of many in the UK if they are not very, very careful .
Michael
QUOTE(CrashedOutAndBurned @ Feb 28 2005, 07:21 PM)
One thing I’ve noticed speaking to people at work, friends, friends of friends in that there are people thinking about buying that simply do not think like people on this forum. That’s probably slowing down the crash party a little.

People on this forum may hold very different in viewpoints and draw different conclusions, but all take an interest in their money, wider political and economic conditions.

Most people simply don’t. Full stop. It can be frustrating as people who are intelligent suddenly turn into slack-jawed morons when the topic turns to the housing market.

Here’s what I’ve noticed:

Many people consider high house prices in a vacuum, without considering historic fluctuations, the role of easy credit, unchecked speculation, and all the other things that are bread and butter for hpc.co.uk readers. When they see a tiny, moulding converted flat for 130k, that’s instantly what it’s ‘worth’, they don’t know or care that it cost 42k in 1999 and is still the same miserable pile of bricks. If they get an offer of 125k accepted, they’ll think they’ve landed themselves a huge bargain.

To them, housing costs are just another thing that ‘everyone knows’ goes ‘up and up’, like the council tax, or the gas bill. Something to sigh about and then get on with things. If they could borrow eight times their income they would. It’s not a question of ignoring the evidence pointing towards a crash, it’s that they simply haven’t sought it out. That’s why when you mention it they look at you as if you’re spinning a yarn about the JFK assassination.

I spoke to one chap in his late twenties on a little short of 20k who’s been saving for a flat for several years and has around 30k. He would end up with a mortgage of 100k for a one bed flat. He hates shared houses and living ‘like a student’. Fair enough.
He now knows some lenders would probably cough up the cash he needs. I said it might be good to wait as prices were flat and even slipping in many areas.
He said ‘I can’t get negative equity because I’m going to put down 30k’.
I didn’t want to say that might not be enough ‘buffer’ and sound like some extremist, so asked if he’d be happy to see the money he’d scrimped for years and years to save just evaporate in a falling market.
‘Well, when I buy, I’ll stay there ‘long term’’.
(Funny how that ‘long term’ is the knee-jerk meejduh phrase on everyone’s lips, kinda like the phrase ‘drift back to work’ was the key phrase of the miner’s strike. ‘It’s over - there’s a drift back to work’, ‘You’re ok, think ‘long term’. ‘Look into my eyes, not around the eyes, right, you’re under’).
Basically, as soon as he had enough deposit and could find someone to lend him a huge mortgage he couldn’t wait to dive in. He doesn’t seem to have much idea that interest rates have risen and could rise more, or that earnings ratios are historically high, or that mortgage approvals have plummeted. But he can reel off the idea that ‘long term’ stops ‘negative equity’.

‘How long, is “long term”’, I asked?

‘Oh, 2-3 years’
Someone here said the crash is currently like the cartoons where someone dashes off a cliff and hangs there for ages before they realise their fate. That’s pretty much the state of play. The crash is here. It just needs blokes like this to start looking down.
*


yes, COAB, as BBB in his more level-headed mood used to say '' it's the mindset of Joe Public that will dictate the market NOT the mindset of the type of people who visit this forum''.............''And joe Public doesn't analyse charts and graphs of house prices and P/E ratios''
They do however compare the rent they're paying on their magnolia BTL flat with what the mortgage payments would be if they bought such a place........
Grime- skint wouldbe ftb
2 young guys in my office have just bought... one exchanged today. 25 year old FTBer going for 215K with the missus, him on a 25K salary; 95% mortgage, variable. Plus borrowed 15K on a home loan to cover deposit, white goods and furniture. Also has a loan on an 18 grand car bought last year. He thinks he'll be able to consolidate all debts by withdrawing equity in a couple of years time.

I've showed him the graphs.. but he's stuck to it and is now very much over the moon to be a new homeowner. I really hope he's ok. Seems to be completely mad to me.

The other is on a moderate average salary, missus at home with the kid, another kid on the way. I couldn't understand how he'd managed to get a 3 bed place with only a £700 a month replayment. Until today I found out it was Interest Only.

They're both extremely confident, and sure they are doing the right thing, and look at me as being a bit of a loser for not getting panicked onto the 'ladder'.

but what can you do....
Cassandra
QUOTE(Michael @ Feb 28 2005, 09:59 PM)
They do however compare the rent they're paying on their magnolia BTL flat with what the mortgage payments would be if they bought such a place........
*


If they do that they should realize immediately they are better off renting. No way will it be cheaper to buy.

However I think most people want something they can buy, want to paint the walls a different colour and are therefore prepared to pay a little more per month. The word LEMMINGS comes to mind.
Michael
QUOTE(Cassandra @ Feb 28 2005, 10:20 PM)
If they do that they should realize immediately they are better off renting. No way will it be cheaper to buy.

However I think most people want something they can buy, want to paint the walls a different colour and are therefore prepared to pay a little more per month. The word LEMMINGS comes to mind.
*


to many people the lack of security of tenure is the worst part of renting, unless of course they're council or HA tenants............
DonnieDarker
QUOTE(Cassandra @ Feb 28 2005, 09:20 PM)
If they do that they should realize immediately they are better off renting. No way will it be cheaper to buy.

However I think most people want something they can buy, want to paint the walls a different colour and are therefore prepared to pay a little more per month. The word LEMMINGS comes to mind.
*


You've hit the nail on the head there.

It's especially so if you are in a long term relationship...that's the culture we've grown up in. And how can you blame people given the daily assault of IKEA and house makeover shows.

The antidote is to make these people watch/read 'Fight Club'. wink.gif
pioneer31
QUOTE(CrashedOutAndBurned @ Feb 28 2005, 06:21 PM)
One thing I’ve noticed speaking to people at work, friends, friends of friends in that there are people thinking about buying that simply do not think like people on this forum. That’s probably slowing down the crash party a little.

People on this forum may hold very different in viewpoints and draw different conclusions, but all take an interest in their money, wider political and economic conditions.

Most people simply don’t. Full stop. It can be frustrating as people who are intelligent suddenly turn into slack-jawed morons when the topic turns to the housing market.

Here’s what I’ve noticed:

Many people consider high house prices in a vacuum, without considering historic fluctuations, the role of easy credit, unchecked speculation, and all the other things that are bread and butter for hpc.co.uk readers. When they see a tiny, moulding converted flat for 130k, that’s instantly what it’s ‘worth’, they don’t know or care that it cost 42k in 1999 and is still the same miserable pile of bricks. If they get an offer of 125k accepted, they’ll think they’ve landed themselves a huge bargain.


*


This is exactly what I have noticed too. People who have good jobs and 'seem' intelligent suddenly become completely mindless and clueless when it comes to buying a property.

They lap up every last word of the VI's and I cannot figure why.

The only way I can rationlise it is that their impatience to get their own house overrides everything else,be it common sense, financial acumen etc......probably similar to falling in love for the first time?
gone west
Remember, Sir Isaac Newton lost a fortune in the South Sea bubble. Madness of crowds.
DonnieDarker
QUOTE(pioneer31 @ Feb 28 2005, 09:35 PM)
They lap up every last word of the VI's and I cannot figure why.
*


It's blatantly obvious. Besides sites like this (which let's face it are probably thought of as extremist loony forums) then the media coverage is a one-way road.

Batter anyone with that much info and they will believe it. This is precisely why we should speak up if you think people are ill informed and making rash decisions about property.
1 Billion Yen
I was travelling in a car with a friend who bought a 2 bed shoebox for 46k in 2001 then sold it for 90k in 2004.

I asked him casually how much his new house was "worth" (bought for 90K last year) and he proceeded to tell me that he had had it valued at 130k.

I know he was bulls1tting about the valuation but I wanted to get a feel for how he saw the market at the moment.

It's so true that people just believe property will keep going up and up. He is another MEW'er who splashes out cash on designer goods, cars etc, then expects his equity growth to pay off his CC debts and loans etc.

These people are going to have a nasty shock when they realise that their safety net has been pulled from under them.
andrew_uk
As a society we seem less and less interested in looking after ourselves. The idea of self reliance has changed to the idea that someone else will watch out for us. Whether it's the government, parents or society in general.
Why pay into a pension - the government will sort us out
Why worry about streatching to buy a house - the BOE will lower rates if it gets bad
Why worry about MEWing - the government won't let house prices fall.
Can't save up a deposit - Mum & Dad'll foot the bill

It's all gone a little mad. We need a HPC, recession or a similar kick up the backside to make people start taking responsibility.
STR@2%GY
I don't think COAB is completely right - its not a black & white divide between the aware (hpc-ers) and the unaware. It's a broad continuing spectrum from the highly informed to the highly un-informed with lots in between, and what we are seeing at the moment with the fall in mortage approvals is a steady drip-drip as more and more people stand back from the market. We haven't run out of fools yet (and never will) but the balance of supply & demand now is enough to continue to force prices down.

Remember that in 1990 when house prices fell 18% in real terms there were still 780,000 mortgage approvals. In 1991, real prices fell a further 6% and there were still 722,000 approvals. The number of approvals bottomed in 93 at 600,000.
Jake
Cassandra. I think you meant "hot" in summer, in Japan. A small point...I know...
Bott
QUOTE(DonnieDarker @ Feb 28 2005, 09:27 PM)
You've hit the nail on the head there.

It's especially so if you are in a long term relationship...that's the culture we've grown up in. And how can you blame people given the daily assault of IKEA and house makeover shows.

The antidote is to make these people watch/read 'Fight Club'.  wink.gif
*


You are not your job...you are not the car you drive..... you are not the house you "own".... you are not your cream sofa.....you are not your fecking khakis...
You are the all singing..all dancing crap of the world...DO NOT FECK WITH US...
Best Film EVER!!! Fact
DonnieDarker
QUOTE(Bott @ Mar 1 2005, 09:47 AM)
You are not your job...you are not the car you drive..... you are not the house you "own".... you are not your cream sofa.....you are not your fecking khakis...
You are the all singing..all dancing crap of the world...DO NOT FECK WITH US...
Best Film EVER!!! Fact
*


Dial-a-cliche, but the book is ten times better. In fact, read anything by Palahiuck and it's just as incendary.
patientFTB
COAB
Good post.

One thing - you mention that people thinking of buying simply do not think like people on this forum.

I would suggest that the difference is only ignorance. Many posters to this forum are only here because they're priced out - and have subsequently learnt a very great deal about the property market and the practices of VIs.

I came very close to buying last May with no concept whatsoever that prices could fall. I hadn't seen it happen and nobody had hinted they could. I had the money and the ambition. I put in an offer for £370k which wasn't accepted. Thank god. It probably was worth half that much.

So have some sympathy and compassion for those that can't understand. We were all there once.
Saver II
Good point PatientFTB

Having graduated in 1998 & watched prices skyrocket faster than I could save for a deposit, I was becoming more and more despondant and couldn't see myself ever affording a place of my own.

My personal epiphany was the Economist article of May '03 that explained the market, bubbles etc. Since then I have been reading more and more about economics and have gained a sense of hope!

The trouble is that although I can see reasons why the market should fall, boy is it taking its time! They don't call economics the dismal science for nothing!

I too have very good friends who are looking at buying. I just can't make them see that renting is cheaper! They seem determined to own something at any price (although I must say, it is mainly the women who are more vocal about this!).

I only worry that as I'm hoping to have a Mrs Saver II in the next year, she will feel the same.... I only hope the market shows obvious falls by then, otherwise I've got a battle on my hands!
Ignorant Steve
There is a very real danger that if a FTB only looked at this site that they would get a very distorted picture.

Better to review many sources of information and then weigh up the pros and cons.

Anyone deciding to buy or not to buy on limited knowledge is a fool.
Michael
yes, COAB , i always find people who're 23 to 25 don't think about HPs being high as 6 years ago they were too young to ever consider house buying..........
Michael
they're still talking the market up
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