People just love to make money - we will turn to stocks from the property bubble [my opinion that is]


Dave Linton predicts FTSE will hit 10,000 in the next few years

Worth watching

Bull on Japan, Bear on Dollar, Bull on Gold

http://www.sharecrazy.com/tv-archive/maste...estor_2007.html

2 Episodes

This guy is not Peter schiff or Jim rogers - no fundementals, but same end result - he just follow trends.

Gives his opinion on all sectors.

Taking advice from anything with the word 'crazy' in it does not instill confidence

Although he is qualified I personally do not think that tie goes with his shirt. Not sure it will go with anything.

recession != stock market rally

Stocks don't do that badly in a recession.
It's a depression you need to worry about.

Having seen the halving of share values from 2000 to 2002/3, I am not sure that people will jump on this one with such rabidity (is that a word?). I know people's memories are short, but not that short, surely.

Also, I am not sure how people are going to cash in that wall of money to put into shares. They will have to sell their house first. And their trophy wives won't like that idea much.
Bedsit in Clapham? I think not.
Nope, they are (Stuck) in property for the long term.

Got 4.13 into it and his voice made me feel unwell so I switched off.

WTF a positive thread about the FTSE? Am I on the wrong forum or something? I've no time for Technical Analysis but I'll give those clips a watch later, cheers.

Share Crazy is quite a nice little site IMO - especially their 'TV' shows. I only signed up to check out the forums but the TV shows are often worth watching and are pretty entertaining, if only to watch the presenter take the piss out of the regular pundits after they lose their shirts on a penny share.

I honestly feel that shares could rise Q2 2008 to beginning of Q2 2009 - then get your money out and run for the hills!

betting against the market, whilst a fun thing for part time, or new investors, is never a good idea

FTSE will only rise as high as p/e will allow.

If it does higher it will fall in due course.

If recession comes don't expect too much from the stock market.

Its a global world. Capital will go to Asia.

Okay I've watched the first 20 minutes of it. The video / conference is from March 2007, so really not much use I fear.
http://www.t1conferences.com/index.html

He's been right on gold at least. Wrong on pretty much everything else though:

Forex: We'll see us break through $2 / £1.. I can see $2.5 to a £ [half right anyway]
£ to €: Sterling looks very strong [generally positive on sterling]...
Banks: We will see some trouble mid-year but will finish 2007 very strongly
Construction: Looking good.
As for oil... I quote: 'Oil looks, frankly yuk. People are telling me oil is going to go to $100 a barrel, but frankly I don't believe we'll get to $70'. Oops!

It's not changed my view on Technical Analysis one iota. Might as well read tea-leaves.

I have to say I went completely the other way a few weeks back. Sold all my holdings. A complete bear on stock values.

Remember, the FTSE has a very high proportion of capitalisation from banks and commodities.

Banks may report okay to the end of this year but the outlook is horrible for them next year.

Anything related to housing and consumer expenditure will tank.

If we end up in recession, commodities should fall back with demand.

Whilst the FTSE is reasonably well supported by earnings and dividends at the moment, they will change - and the FTSE tends to be influenced by the Dow where things are looking even worse and on higher multiples. (As for the Chinese stock market you don't want to know).

I vote for 5500 within 6 months, irrespective of the Santa Claus rally.

Lets make him a central banker. We are saved.

The stock market only ever goes up, I am in it for the long term....Hold on, this isnt 1999!

Phoney

If the FTSE and gold sky rocket at the same time then it's probably due to massive inflation and a devalued currency.
I can't see Sterling staying above 2$ for much longer myself either. Why would it, sentiment? Not once the rest of the World cottons on that UK plc is based on house prices!

two words - "Kingdom Financial"

it is some sort of holding company for Zimbabwe stocks....?

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/zimbabwe-...oms/2007/06/04/



Zimbabwe Stock Market Booms As Robert Mugabe Prints More Money
Posted by Bill Bonner on Jun 4th, 2007
Money isn’t everything. We provide additional proof this morning by looking at a place with a lot of money - Zimbabwe. Nowhere on the entire planet is money piling up at a more rapid pace. The printing presses in that hellhole must be working around the clock. Consumer price inflation is increasing at an annual rate of 1,729%!

“My bad,” says Robert Mugabe, the nation’s democratically elected tyrant.

We look to Zimbabwe not merely for entertainment but for instruction. It shows us that not only is money not a good gauge of wealth and happiness, neither are asset prices. Rich Americans look at rising stock prices. ‘All is well,’ they say. ‘We’re getting wealthier.’ Poor and middle class Americans look at their house prices. ‘All is well,’ they say. ‘Our houses are worth twice as much as they were 5 years ago; we’re getting wealthier.’

Alas, it is not so. As money comes off the presses in Zimbabwe, it has to go somewhere. More of it goes to the rich than to the poor. So, ASSET PRICES RISE MORE THAN CONSUMER PRICES. Guess which stock market has gone up the most in 2007? The Zimbabwe stock market! It’s up 600% so far this year…up 12,000% over the last 12 months.

Imagine that you live in Zimbabwe. You are one of Robert Mugabe’s cronies and you get your hands on US$50,000. Of course, the first thing you want to do is to shuffle it out of the country. But short of that, what do you do? Do you invest in real capital improvements…new industries…new equipment…new property? No chance. Not in an economy that is rapidly collapsing. People don’t have enough to eat. They can’t buy fuel.

Public services are crumbling. Transport, education, health, trash collection, police - they are all disintegrating. It used to be the richest part of Africa. Now, thousands of refugees sneak out of Zimbabwe every week. The place is a disaster.

Instead of investing in fixed capital improvements, you put your money into stocks - hoping that the stocks will go up faster than your currency goes down. The result? A speculative, asset-price boom - even while the whole country is falling apart.

Meanwhile, America has its own asset-price boom…its own crony capitalists…its own printing presses…

But even as asset prices go up, the real economy slows down. Today’s news tells us that the GDP is barely growing at all. And the Fed says housing will be a drag for longer than expected.

Bill Bonner
The Daily Reckoning Australia

Is Zimbabwe much different to the uk or us?! All i am seeing is the rich are getting richer and the poor getting poorer!

that's the one - the first part of the bberg description is "A Zimbabwe-based holding company for a group of businesses in the financial services industry."

The shares are up 3.3 million percent year to date. I've not bothered to do a screen but I'd imagine that is up there with the best performers of all time. Of course in the same timeframe the ZWD has lost 99.2% of its value (on the official rate - the unofficial rate is worse) so the return in USD/GBP/Euro is dramatically reduced. Even so, a $100 investment at the start of the year would have turned into $29,800.

Hope so. I've just opened a bet on 5,700 and am ready to accumulate.

I've been thinking the FTSE 100 could reach 10,000 at some point within the next few years by looking at current p/e ratios, some crude charting and analysing what happened post '89. I've also argued (wrongly) that the FTSE 100 would hit 7,000 by the end of the year and then later why it would'nt crash because of the low p/e ratio's after doing some research.

I don't see the index going below 6,000 as the recent second low has already tested this level where support appears strong and presents another buying opportunity for the many high yielding stocks - if it does, it won't be much below 6,000 for very long and will be the last time it ever happens. That would seem to be the base from where the next bull-run would effectively start.

I think the FTSE 100 is already a bargain and the next bull run probably is'nt far away, maybe starting in 12 to 18 months - what I've got to do is building a high-yielding portfolio of shares starting some time next year.


Plus James Ferguson of MoneyWeek seems to be saying the same thing - THIS is a great read (apart from the sales pitch towards the end!)