Merged Posts:

First Story on News at 10, House Price Crash.

Prepare yourselves for rate cuts, Gordon is pulling the strings.



PaulM has uploaded a copy of the recording to HPC's media section for anyone who missed it:
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/media/jon...-2007-12-05.avi
Or there is a youtube version here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6npL60xD9_k

I only have half an eye on the TV as I work - did I see the housepricecrash website mentioned?

...surely lower house prices are logical and good for the country ...would Gordo attempt to cook the books..?....

Yes.

I think half the country watching this, kacked their pants, and then some.

There is nothing to fear but fear itself!!!

TOTAL UTTER BEAR FEST - Evan very sober, importing inflation from China even mentioned!!

I would imagine the UK's estate agents will be outsourcing their calls tommorow to cope with the volumes of people calling to withdraw their offers.

anyone got a link/recording it for later?

Could we follow the Darwins Theory, John that is and maybe look to central America. Maybe GB will be doing the next Reggie Perrin

OH what a day!
Likely to be something on Newsnight

If our website has just been displayed on national TV - then expect this website to crash!!!

Cool.

...you mean they are that stupid they don't know already..surely not...?...

the News At Ten exposure has been good for me, I've got Hollywood on the phone, apparently the camera just loves me, baby

IT IS GOOD NEWS BUT I BET IT WASN'T SPUN THAT WAY? Oops Caps on again.

Compared to the information on this site, which has reached very deeply into every topic raised by our brave Evan, that was WEAK!

295 guests tonight

Can you watch a repeat of this on the bbc website?

392 as I type this.

Welcome to any first time visitors.

399 now, let's keep it clean!

Can GB pull the strings for me to, my 8x salary IO mort is about to reset from 4.5% and I have 25 BTL's I really would appreciate a rate freeze as the re-adjustment to 7.9% will wipe out all my gains in the last 8 years and I have a very expensive weekend in vegas booked.

I may only cut hair for a living but it's business investors like me that make this country what it is, I doupt many of my tenants can afford such an increase in rent and I have down payments on 6 more other properties that have yet to be built that's due in March!!!



Oh and expect bullion dealers to make a killing when all the frightened guests get to cagnaos/goldfinger posts!

Gordon has just popped up on MSN, he is fuming about the News at Ten report, so much so he can barely type his hand is shaking so much. Expect TV licence fees to triple and massive layoffs at the BBC.

No worries mate, we've just nationalised a ******ing bank, they'll do you a mortgage, no probs.

just caught the end. Bit dosey but..

'House prices are falling'

'Good night!'

Quick, hide the embarassing threads, we have visitors.

Maybe now people will stop laughing at me and shaking their heads when I say the house prices have been dropping and could well crash.

I can start shaking my head and laughing at them saying, didnt you sell at the peak and rent....like I did.

Buckle up folks, its a sharp drop from here on in.

If the Bank of England drops the rate tommorow will the Banks follow ?

I think not, the link is broken.

Gordon Browns miracle economy built on debt is going to explode in his face.

link

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/video_and_audio/default.stm

top left

Surprising thing was that the News At Ten just started and went straight into house prices falling at fastest rate, economic downturn, etc., Main story and only story for first ten minutes!



Fair play to the BBC.

Surely this is an embarassing thread isn't it ?

the devil has just called me with some work - apparently there are a large number of 'investors' who sold their souls and it's collection time - am i interested?

Genius. Now, can anyone pick it up and SAVE IT? URGENT before it goes.
cheers
fp

While I've down sized and invested in property development abroad in anticipation of a down turn, I don't think the correction will be as harsh as our House Price Carsh representative suggested tonight on the News At Ten. Thinking is:
1) Mortgage interest rates are still relatively low, making mortgages affordable. (Compare the long term fixed rates to those you could get 7 or 8 years ago.)
2) Demand outstrips supply.
3) American economy isn't as weak as most think - though clearly perception of its stength affects confidence here.
4) We all need somewhere to live. Other investments will be ditched before we part with our homes.

I feel that the correction won't be any more than 10% to 15%.

Good to have The News at Ten back.

LOL FP, you really think our government would arrange to have a story displayed on the bbc news at 10 lost into the archives?


If so watch fer summit really really nasty tomorrow, as they have wheeled out every other story to attempt to hide the bad news!

I think personally reading between the lines of what I have seen tonight on both 10 o'clock news and newsnight is that this is mainly being driven by the media looking for a rate cut.
I wonder how many journalists , editors etc have more than 1 property. Also have friends in the city who are going to see falls in their bonuses and not attract anymore foreign investors to rent out their city pads.
They are hoping for a rate cut to put a bit of confidence back into the market and probably looking for a 2005 repeat performance, its a tricky one for the bank as mentioned on Newsnight, their remit to control inflation but under that same umbrella is the economy as a whole and that includes house prices, the bank look a year down the line as best they can when deciding these things.

There was talk of Chinas inflation on the up affecting prices here, but the bigger picture is harder to predict, a Chinese slowdown will mean less demand for oil and basically everything else forcing prices of these items down, that will lead to uk inflation falling back with less to pay at the pumps.
If interest on outstanding debt is cut, which for some families a 0.25% cut will mean big savings all round then paying that little bit extra for food or clothing will not hurt to badly, its swings and roundabouts, you gain on one and lose on another.

I see the bank holding firm tomorrow but see a 5.25% base rate by March next year for sure.

sOUPDRAGON = NUMPTY

Demand and supply

Yes, the demand for porsche cars greatly outstips supply. which 17 year old wouldn't want one

Goggle the difference between effective demand and potential demand

No credit = no (effective) demand

Fool!

if mortgages are affordable then why all the bleating about 1.4m borrowers struggling to get a decent deal?

errr....it's 23.22 and there are 70 people logged on.

Yet another crash prediction down the pan.

Never mind house prices - what about the comparison to the great depression - Evan practically said it was on its way!

1929

Stock Market Crash
Bank Losses (lent to investors)
Lending Freeze

= crash, BANG..... WALLOP!

2007

Sub Prime Losses don't make a 'D' word but........

Bloke from Goldman Sachs said for every $1 the banks lose, they stop lending $10, the multiplier in reverse.

Repeated use of the 'D' word and other intemperate language, but allowable after the watershed.

Are you sure you're not looking at a different website? A far less popular one perchance?

There were over 560 users logged in after 10:30 and there are 314 logged in right now (after midnight). True, the figure *might* fall to 70 though....




at 5 in the morning!


Night all.

ergo...
2007
Bank Losses ( lent to investors )
Lending Freeze
=WALLOP, BANG...crash !
House Price Crash

Obviously.

Absolutely agree. The 10 o'clock news piece just looked like a gun held to the MPC's head in my opinion. It even ended with the upbeat message the BBC always manages to slip in - "They'll probably cut interest rates tomorrow" just to make the MPC seem like they want us to all lose our homes if they don't.

The crash is here - and even if the B of E cuts interest rates today at midday it will not stop the much-needed market correction that is on the way.

When normal hard-working people cannot afford to buy a home, something is seriously wrong. I sold my house in the Summer for a price I couldnt have afforded to pay to buy it - and almost felt guilty for selling it for so much - but it was the market rate. Shame on banks, surveyors, estate agents and everyone responsible for pushing house prices through the roof.

Next year, I may be able to afford to buy my house back, now that's a thought.

No credit = no (effective) demand?

As I said in my post, interest rates are low when you look back more than a few years. That makes credit available and property affordable.

The end is nigh

What did the report class as ‘decent deal’? I’m sure that an overwhelming majority of the 1.4m people managed to secure a deal that was suitable enough, even if not as attractive as they had become accustomed to. I'm sure you will agree that the deals will be favourable to those in the 80s and 90s. That's my point - credit remains ‘relatively’ low compared to historical levels and is part of the reason I think house prrices will have a softer landing than many on here think.

Some spokesperson from this very site, I believe, said on the news item that a £300,000 house could fall to £200,000 next year. In my book that is a thirty three and one third per cent drop, significantly exceeding the nineties crash of a 20% drop.

Now, what was that statement suppose to achieve?

At best, it could have been just a warning that might be heard by the Bank of England MPC, and encouraging them to drop the interest rate, which indeed they did today.

At worst, it could be a totally speculative and irresponsible self-fulfilling prophecy, based on not a shred of evidence, stated for effect and self-indulgent publicity.

The money markets are a new factor admittedly, and they are for the first time, about one per cent above the bank base rate, at least up until the MPC met today. The rate cut of one quarter per cent, with the strong likelihood of more to follow sooner rather than later (down to 4% next year ? - as one economist predicted this afternoon) should help to bring the lending banks back into line, and ease up the mortgage availability and conditions, to more reasonable levels.

Against the background of the current housing market environment, my wife, who is a negotiator for a large national housebuilder has sold four houses this week, prior to the rate cut. There is still no shortage of buyers when prices are reasonably pitched, and that is what is important when avoiding another crash.

One other good thing though, the news item did publicise this excellent board for me to find and now enjoy.

A little publicity supporting HPC, quickly followed by a rate cut.
VI's you've got to hand it to them - they keep trying.

Yes, availability isn't a problem, however the bank's willingness to lend you those mortgage products is. You "can" still get cheap deals, but the multiples and LTV are lower and the criteria to get it is much more stringent.

Yep, and the high riskers won't get a mortgage! Take out that category, and what do you have left? Still a demand way over supply in the UK, and against the background of high employment, it will make damn all difference to upward price trends.

For prices to fall permanently to affordable levels, that is for the vulnerable FTB category, we need a massive programme of house building, the like of which the UK has never seen before. Unfortunately, it won't happen, as the political will and resources are not available, at least for the foreseeable future.

[quote name='Explorer' date='Dec 8 2007, 07:41 AM' post='881510']
Yep, and the high riskers won't get a mortgage! Take out that category, and what do you have left? Still a demand way over supply in the UK, and against the background of high employment, it will make damn all difference to upward price trends.

For prices to fall permanently to affordable levels, that is for the vulnerable FTB category, we need a massive programme of house building, the like of which the UK has never seen before. Unfortunately, it won't happen, as the political will and resources are not available, at least for the foreseeable future.

[/quote

Why do people keep using the high employment argument to help them argue that there will not be a HPC? If you look back to the last crash you will find that unemployment only rose substantially after house prices fell!

HPC first then Recession (as UK economy is built on houses this is not hard to understand is it?)