Long-time lurker, first time poster....

I am a first time buyer and currently looking in Farnborough and Guildford for my first flat (house is out of the question). Whilst there have been some modest price drops (www.propertysnake.co.uk) has anyone noticed an increase or decrease of properties coming to market. Up until about 2 weeks ago, I was seeing 3 to 4 properties a day on rightmove in area. Now its up to 14 a day.

Do you think the BTL brigade are getting scared and scared or having a rational 'streamline' of their portfolios?

And the $64,000 question.....Do I buy the flat I like now (which I can afford) or sit tight and watch the apocalypse from a safe distance?

I think that now is the time to sit tight and watch. Hopefully it will soon be clear which way the wind is blowing,


Peter.

So what can you get for $64,000 in that area

OP...

I'm currently looking at a pretty similar area at the moment, and I'd certainly agree with your observations regarding the amount of property coming on to the market. As far as prices are concerned, I'm of the opinion that the area will prove a lot "stickier" than many parts of the UK (extremely easy access to central London, strong private sector employment), but ultimately will see significant drops. If the drops work in the opposite way to the rises, then I expect to see prices contract back up the rail lines towards London (they rolled out down them in the late 90s), so I'd guess somewhere like Alton, or maybe Farnham would see drops earlier than a Guildford or a Woking.

Hope you find what you want soon, or if not, don't mind waiting.

well I think I answered my own question!!! I put an offer in and it was rejected. I'm quite happy it was. I'm going to sit tight and wait. No-one else has been to see it yet so I wouldn't be surprised to see him come back in a week or two and accept it. Its happened to a couple of people I know.

Might drop my offer even lower then......

As for what can you buy for $64k - about £30k by the end of the week if things carry on like they have been - have a look at these beauties:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-147...=1&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-962...=1&tr_t=buy

Thanks for your replies.

Let us know how it goes SaintJay.

Must admit, it really was interesting to hear about your Rightmove-watching. Have been using the highly unscientific method of playing "count the For Sale sign", and where I'm living at the moment (south Surrey) there's been a really impressive crop of new arrivals in the last month or so. What's surprised me is it's not the classic BTLer "flats n' terraces" (there aren't all that many here anyway), but mid to higher end country properties. I'd love to know what's forcing the issue down here as, whilst I'm sure a fair few are smarting after the mortgage resets, it doesn't seem to logically explain the activity.

true - they all seem to be the high end prices. £329k for a two bed terrace? Yes did type those numbers in correctly. Could well be people finding things going a bit tough. My friend at work knows a couple of estate agents so I will find out what she knows. As for Farnborough - another 10 on today.

You can check on rightmove by just selecting your area and the ' on in the last 24hrs' option. Quite good if you go on everyday.

Hi

I lived in guildford and watched property prices every week in the local rag between '98 & '03. I'd keep watching if I were you, prices are beyond stupid and will drop when things get going. On the up side, when the market turns +ve again, anything in gilly regains strongly.

Its all down to taste of course but I wouldn't touch Guildford with a long stick now. Great place to eat, shop or play; horrendously expensive, noisy and busy to live in. Two to three times a year the rush hour traffic is so bad it takes an hour to get across town - who needs it? My prediction is that in 20 years time the place will be like Kingston is now - yikes!

Ive been watching the number of properties on rightmove for sale in Basingstoke +5 miles, as it's the largest town near me:

14/1/07 898
14/2/07 930
17/6/07 1287
22/11/07 1586

As previously stated on this forum, this isn't a completely scientific way of tracking the number of houses on the market, but this seems like a significant increase, especially for this time of the year when you would expect the market to be fairly quiet.

nothing happening with the one I put the offer in on. I'm hoping everything tanks before he comes back and wants to accept my offer. Found out its been on the market since the summer (top of the market). I am going to bide my time and will be watching the market and this site with intense interest....

got a call from the EA this afternoon - vendor is willing to accept my earlier offer (which I didn't leave on the table) - knew he'd buckle. Thing is, I think my offer , now, although only a week old seems far too high.

I might try offering a lower amount. The thing is - and this gets to the core of the site really, what constitutes a crash? 5%? 10%? 15%? At the moment, my offer constitutes a 5% drop in the asking price. At the price its on, each 1% drop is a sizeable saving not just in price but in repayments as well. How cheeky do you think I can be?

I've seen the fear (and some paranoia) that's gripping people on this site and others and fully expect things to collapse at some point early next year (people have ignored the signs).

I am going to turn into a bear. GRRRRRR!!!!!

Another way to approach the decision is to analyse how much it will cost you to rent the equivalent property.

2 bed flats in Guildford.
Rent: £900 pcm up
Buy: £170K up

So, assuming a 6% mortgage, you could pay about £680pm in interest if you have a 20% deposit (£34K).

If you rent you pay £900 pm but get £120 in interest on the deposit.
If you buy, you pay £680 pm and £120 in lost earnings, i.e. £800. So you're £100 pm better off IF house prices go up in line with inflation and you keep your job for the next 25 years. If, however, prices drop by a 1% pa, you're wiping £140 pm off your net worth. You'd have to be a crazy, Class of '05 Housing Bull to go for it IMO.

I know of a nice 3 bed property in Fleet that has to be sold because of debt/relationship breakdown.

It was sold in August but contracts have still not been exchanged as the chain keeps encountering problems.

Sit tight and enjoy the ride.

My wife and I bought in the Farnborough/Aldershot area back in 1991, on an estate within walking distance of a mainline station that gets you to Waterloo in 45-50 minutes. The market was in a major slump and we picked up a decent 3-bedder for not much more than we'd sold for in North Wales. NO WHERE IS IMMUNE when reality sets in.

will be slightly less board counting going on in the Farnborough area - An EA has closed - Pearsons - more to follow perhaps?

http://www.findaproperty.com/displayprop.a...p;agentid=05071

A charming property--and only about $20,000.00.

Buy in Guildford - ITS GREAT! (I'm selling BTW)!

think you left it too late. Everythings has been sticking and over the last week or so, small reductions have been creeping in. Wouldn't mind that flat in Cardwell's Keep if thats what your selling.

That's a stone throw from me. I'm renting a flat on Worplesdon Road at the moment.

if there's anymore in the guildford area, perhaps we could sort out an HPC beer and bearish outlook night? (Fancy dress optional)

Lots of responses to this one then

it was the fancy dress option - they're still deciding what to wear...