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House Price Crash forum > House Prices > Economics
DrBubb
Oct 23 2007, 08:06 PM
Supply: Set To Surge, As Specs Move To Sell
Demand: it can fall off a cliff now
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You can hear my detailed comments on the current state of the UK property market

33 minutes (or so) into this podcast: October 21st, 2007 Podcast
http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/

= =

What do you think,
Have I got it right about the coming changes in supply and demand?



And as you are listening, here's an updated chart of Barratt Development (BDEV.L):



/see : HPC thread
DrBubb
Oct 25 2007, 11:48 AM
QUOTE(Wad @ Oct 25 2007, 07:53 AM) *
Mathew Parris ... has spotted the fact that a very large number of people are holding an excess amount of property - far beyond their basic need for accomodation. Those people are all very weak holders of property, whether it be a small time BTL investor with their own home as well, an elderly couple with a house that is far too big for them to maintain, wealthy retirees with a holiday home here or abroad. All these people are holding property in the hope of future capital gain /

but they are all cash poor as well and the monthly cash outgoings of maintaining the property, financing it and paying local property taxes are a real drain on resources far beyond the actual or notional rental income or ammenity value they receive. They are only prepared to suffer that cash drain if capital gains continue and they can continue to make up the cash shortfall by releasing some from the property from time to time via remortgaging or MEW.


THERE in a few words well-chosen is the source of SUDDEN SUPPLY which will soon flood into the market,
pushing it down, as speculative demand evaporates.

/see: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=59377

= =

WHERE ARE WE NOW ??

Listen to this video (about US property) from one year ago:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoZV5jt9puc

The same sort of range of opinions are now offered about the UK market.

If we recast this in the UK, I would be taking the Peter Schiff role.
DrBubb
Oct 25 2007, 11:14 PM
HPC's Jonathon Davis on the BBC: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oh0lUDUFDMY

(comment from GXXX):
"What a #$#&.
The presenter rumbled him: 'You've been calling the crash for the last 4 years'
FP: 'Yes, but it's a 15-20 year cycle'
So if it's such a reliable cycle, you should have been a bit more accurate with your forecasts mate!"
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You must have seen a different video.

In the one I saw, Davis wiped the floor with Hollingsworth. All the VI man could do was
recite tired misconceptions like: the economy is okay, and hence prioperty is okay.
Anyone who has studied financial history will see that housing can lead the economy down,
especially after a bubble of this magnitude. It is happening in the USA now, in case you
have not noticed. The warning from the homebuilders completely trumps the VI spin,
but one needs to be a bit of a student of markets to see that. (Declan should be encouraged
to do his basic homework on this excellent indicator.)

Declan was right to ask the question about calling the crash some time ago.
But the 2005-7 last gasp was an No-Crash-Yet-means-No-Crash-Ever final speculative
surge. The Builders never broke down (though they threatened to do so) in that
2005 dip.

I reckon that last move up in property will get retraced rather quickly, and then the market
will work its way lower still over 3-5 years.
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