When the crash comes I know the paper value of my portfolio will go down, But the paper value only matters when I decide to sell something. I don't plan on selling anything for the next 33 years.

When the crash comes and other BTL landlords are repoed there tanents will need somewhere else to live. This should hopefully mean fewer and smaller void periods. Plus if there is less competition in the letting market I can push up my rents. Something that is difficult to do with the current Let market because of the competition from other Landlords.

Something many people on this website seem to forget is that BTL has actually decreased rents. Once the competition has gone I think we will be left with one or two land lords holding much larger property portfolios in certain areas. These landlords will then be able to dictate rents for that area.

Then once I think the market has hit bottom I should be able to come in and greatly increase the size of my property portfolio at a rock bottom price.

Can anyone see any problems with my plan?

Rents wont rise aspeople who would have reted will be able to buy.

If you own all your renal properties outright then you can bild up a cashpile and be in a good position to buy after the crash. If your properties are morgaged you will undoubtedly have them reposessed in the next 12 months.

sounds like a great plan , gives me warm and tingly feeling inside, i can explain to my son that we rent due to greedy landlords playing monopoly with houses!! ARSEHOLE

"When the crash comes I know the paper value of my portfolio will go down, But the paper value only matters when I decide to sell something. I don't plan on selling anything for the next 33 years.
Can anyone see any problems with my plan?"


Erm....... If you know the price of an asset you hold is about to tank you sell it now and put it in something that gives you better returns. Simple rule of investment....
God, I hope you are not a financial advisor or something!!!

sounds like a great plan - go ahead...

Sorry, yes you are right, property is a fantastic investment. In fa I have some great properties you'll be interested in. great long-term investments. With a hefty commision for myself obviously.


(People this stupid deserve to be ripped off)

So I should be thanking you for helping prevent FTBs getting on the property market!? Silly me.

Vermin.

The quicker your tax breaks / loopholes get taken away the better.

You're unlikely to get any positive responses on this site as you can already see.

I think the plan is reasonable but you must be in a strong financial position just now ie you can withstand voids, interest rate rises etc. If you are mortgaged 100% on your properties you are most likely going to be repossessed unless you have a large cashpile somewhere.

I think rents would increase if there was a crash. I dont' believe the comment that many renters will be able to buy. A crash would likely happen in the setting of an economic recession and although prices may drop they will be comparatively as high as they are now unless you have a large amount of savings (which is a only a tiny minority of the UK ? they are all on this site). BTL will therefore still be a good investment as long as you don't have to sell if prices plummet.

With regards to increasing the size of your portfolio a rock bottom price this is also my thinking in the event of a crash as I can only afford to own one property at current prices and I would like to own at least 5 within the next 5 years and 10 within 10 years.

Some people on here will get very angry at you for talking about property as an investment as they think it is a human right to buy a property. They all have roofs over their head and are living quite comfortably and you are within your rights to invest in property as with any other investment (not a good idea to jump in at the moment though)

Finally. There may be a crash but their most likely won't. Prices dropping 5% over 5 years would give an almost 20% fall in prices accouting for inflation which is pretty decent. I still won't be able to buy more at these prices however.

At the end of the day make sure you know where you stand. Make sure you have decent equity in your property (at least 20% to be safe) and don't buy any more at the moment unless you are actually buying a long term home. It's a pretty poor investment at the moment. Prices have stopped or are dropping in many places already so best to chill for a couple of years and see what happens.

Troll alert!

I think l said exercise my right to invest in water supplies and sell it onto you for £100 a pint.

lewis I've got nothing but love for you but maybe you should explain to your son how you made some bad decisions and didn't work hard in school. Teach him to take responsibilities for his own actions!!!

Or maybe you could buy a place in an area that's not the greatest which will have more affordable housing?

You have options don't be blinkered. I wish I could afford a house in Chelsea but I can't so I live in East London.

Because of the Buy to let boom many people can live in areas they could otherwise not afford to!!!

Completely different. If you can't afford water you die. If you can't afford to buy a house you rent one for less money so you don't die.

I really can't take your posts seriously.

You cannot get any positive responses. Did you logon onto this site thinking it was called letsrampuphouseprices.co.uk?

You think rents will increase if there is a crash? How and why?

How can BTL be a good investment when you talk about prices dropping? I see the best type of investment, at this point in time, as being a something tangible and liquid. Did you not observe what happened to the bond market last week and yet you reckon interest-sensitive investments are good?

You seem to like oxymorons: There may be a crash but their most likely won't. Which is it?

That really is rambling nonsense. If I took investment advice from you I'd end up poor.

Totally agree nohpc posts are just 100% pure garbage , apparantly he's working in New Zealand yet he thinks himself a expert on the UK housing market , as you too spotted ..................
classic fence sitting saying things like that , still it's always handy having a few spanners around the place .

Nobody knows if there will or won't be a crash. Why is it not okay to say there might be but probably won't be? It's better than giving a 100% sure answer becaus nobody knows.

I said BTL was not a good investment if you read what I wrote. I said people who are already in BTL with a large amount of equity will be fine as long as they don't want to sell during a downturn.

I think rents will increase if property dips because more people will be renting. Yes property will become cheaper to buy but necessarily more affordable (due to recession effects).

I'm not trying to ramp up houseprices. I think they cannot go any higher than they are now. I think they may well dip a little. I just don't see a crash.

I think you have a very bright future. In 33 years time you'll be really minted, probably. What will you spend it on in 33 years time?

Any UK investor who looks 33 years into the future in today`s Global Economy, witnessing the further growth of that monster the EU has balls of steel.

Okay, that's a fair reply.

I guess I see an investment as something very different. I think houses were a good investment between 1995 and 2006. I think there are a lot of people with second properties who think they are investors.

There are hundreds of thousands of empty properties in Britain that are owned by speculators. I cannot see how rents will increase?

It's a very good point Charlie. If we look back at the last 10 years it's frightening enough.

It's a cynical old world now. It's better to spend your pension/savings early on in life and enjoy yourself. It seems those who plan for their dotage get screwed. I can see BTL being taxed very heavily within those 33 years!

Firstly people will always need somewhere to live even in 33 years time.

I can also see taxes increasing on rented properties not just BTL, when that happens all rented properties will push up there rents to pay the additional taxes.

good luck with it. Just remember in 33 years, when you are STILL subsidizing your 'tennants' and the 'value' of your 'portfolio' is STILL less than the outstanding loans, there were many people who TOLD YOU SO.

Err no, look at the posts again and you'll see people clearly stating that RENTS are cheaper than mortgages. The supply of RENTAL accommodation has indeed kept prices down, if not decreased it. I think people on this site who think house prices can rise forever non-stop seem to forget that supply and demand works in the rental sector, not just in home ownership sector.

Yep, people do not borrow money to pay rent. It depends how much they earn. In a global economy with little or no real wage inflation you will not be able to push rents up because there are less landlords. And, sooner or later there will be a backlash which will either take the form of a generation rioting in the streets or punitive BTL taxes.

And, if there are less landlords presumably FTBs have been able to buy again so there will be less renters.

Face it - BTL has been a one-off phenomenon caused by 50 year low interest rates combined with lax lending and a sluggish, relatively lowly valued property market following the recession of the early 90s. Move the IRs up, tighten the lending and the mad portfolio building of 1 property - HPI - leverage equity, 2 properties - HPI - leverage equity, 4 properties - HPI - leverage equity, 8 properties - HPI - leverage equity is not likely to happen again.

What tickles me with people like you is that you think you're running a business, or that you are shrewd or that you are working the system.

Banks don't care who borrows the money as long as someone does. And they don't care who they repossess from either.

When prices crash 8 can become 4 just as easily as 4 became 8.

See bold, if this happens, it feeds inflation and if rates are raised houses come down even more.

prices will come down if rates rise but affordability will not so you will not have more buyers.

Depends how much they come down. As anyone knows its always better to buy low even with higher interest rates
than to buy high with lower rates.

What makes you think I'm subsidizing any of my tennants? Simply I'm not

Although the value of my portfolio is less than the amount of loan currently on it.

I agree with you. Once many landlords go bust people living in there properties will need to find some where quick. Thats where I come in with my slightly increased rent

Yes because BTL landlords with half a brain sold out last year and now have plenty of cash to outbid you !

Not in my area I know most of the big land lords are getting ready to do the same. We all seem to be waiting for the crash!! I just hope one of them doesn't move to early

Sorry, I don't understand. The value of your portfolio is less than the loan secured on it? How is this possible, and if it is true, how are your rents covering your costs?

I agree with the main points of your post. The difficulty is when interest rates are high and defaults/repos are common, the banks won't lend money to anyone. I remember when RBS would only let landlords purchase a maximum of 2 BTLs, at 3% over base rate...I don't remeber many people hoovering up during the early nineties when HPs were at a low. Nobody wanted to look at property, the banks wouldn't lend as they feared further price drops, and those among the public who could get loans had the same worries.

This is one of my fave HPC doctrines. The whole of the UK is insanely in debt. Yet not FTBs, oh no they have big piles of cash stashed away! Funny isnt it. Thanks for posting nohpc I agree with many of your points in this thread. As you point out, any pro investing argument is discounted as "rubbish" whether this is the case or not. Im not pro HPI, but I am pro reality and realise that simply saying that something is not true on this site wont actually make it so.

And my other fave is the ol' these things area always cyclical doctrine. Well if you belive that then there must be another bigger boom on the way, so even if you buy at the top now, just sell at the next top. You'll be fine. Infact my pop did just that and ended up with a couple a 100k in the bank - damn his stupidity! Sure he could have made more, then couldnt we all if we could predict the future...



I think the guy is just dealing in reality. I dont see why holding a counter view to the established HPC doctrines instantly means one is trying to "ramp prices". Sometimes being a member of this site seems to mean you have to believe every bearish bit of news whether it holds any truth or no. Surely you cant agree that that is healthy?



If I "roll a die", I might "get a six", but most likely I wont. Geeeesh - its not rocket science!

And I agree with the point, Im not foolish enough to say a crash is impossible, and I have planned my own finances to account for such a situation. But I dont see it happening in the near future. Thankfully I'll be fine either way, and good luck to anyone who bets on a crash, you may well come out better than I. But if the massive drops dont show up...

Interest Rates rising to 10% ??

You sound like the amateur btl'er that the bears keep talking about. I didnt' know they really existed.

Have you tried to impress all your peers and bought yourself a nice sports car....or two? Otherwise how can you not have significant equity given that hp's have risen shedloads in London.

I am not an expert on Buy to let investments, but it seems that if you have to subsidise any investment just to break even, then it is NOT worth the contract and a poor investment. Looking 33 years into the future for a pay off on your portfolio seems risky.

It would seem a more prudent plan, to sell your entire portfolio as others have claimed they have and realise the cash. Put that cash into a high interest savings account for the next 33 years and you will achieve a much higher return by far.

Interest rates have risen lately and by all accounts will increase further only increasing any potential interest to be compounded on your initial investment.

Rich people dont buy property, they inherit. They also make huge sums of money from compound interest on their huge savings. It may prove to be a much more prudent step.

Good luck either way.