Has anyone read "The Black Swan", by Nassim Taleb. This is about the impact of highly improbable events on life.

This seems to be entirely appropriate in the frenetic investing in property.

It worries me that many people here are putting all their eggs in the property basket - some are planning on using rising property prices to fund their retirement in 40 years time - it might be a good idea but who knows? We like to think, even though the past provides plenty of counter examples, that tomorrow wilbe much the same as today which was barely different from yesterday.
He gives an example of a casino in Las Vegas which spends a fortune on the prevention of cheating using security cameras etc etc. The losses the casino suffered from using this were 1000 times less than the unpredictable events which they occasionally suffered - a law suit when a tiger bit a performer, the kidnap of the owners daughter etc..

I could write more but will await any response.

Regards

Richard

The author was interviewed on Puplava's radio show on financialsense.com a while ago. It sounds interesting, but does is say much more than 'completely unexpected events happen'?

Isn't the trouble with black swan events is that they can't really be predicted or timed?

Reading it now, I liked his earlier book.

VMR.