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dude wheres my house
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

I dont think so, still alot more stampeding investors
House of Lords
QUOTE(dude wheres my house @ May 30 2007, 10:28 AM) [snapback]652809[/snapback]
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

I dont think so, still alot more stampeding investors

Just last week's rise knocked off so really nothing worth worrying about. Interesting though that it's probably about the same value fall as Feb's one given that it's just about doubled since.

Like everything else now, once the markets see something once, when it happens again it's just background noise unless it directly affects credit availability. Until something really knocks that, things will continue. Now if China really tried to stop the madness rather than make noises, that could be something interesting.
dude wheres my house
QUOTE(House of Lords @ May 30 2007, 10:32 AM) [snapback]652814[/snapback]
Just last week's rise knocked off so really nothing worth worrying about. Interesting though that it's probably about the same value fall as Feb's one given that it's just about doubled since.

Like everything else now, once the markets see something once, when it happens again it's just background noise unless it directly affects credit availability. Until something really knocks that, things will continue. Now if China really tried to stop the madness rather than make noises, that could be something interesting.


Dont know if the FTSE agrees with you http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...iew/default.stm

Down > 1%
House of Lords
QUOTE(dude wheres my house @ May 30 2007, 10:51 AM) [snapback]652835[/snapback]
Dont know if the FTSE agrees with you http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/...iew/default.stm

Down > 1%

Is that newsworthy though? It will be back up the same tomorrow or near enough. The yanks will start lower and probably end up in the black by the end of the day.
ae589
QUOTE(dude wheres my house @ May 30 2007, 10:28 AM) [snapback]652809[/snapback]
I dont think so, still alot more stampeding investors


This is the effect of tripling stamp duty.

I don't think it's the neginning of the end but I'll be surprised of the US finishes in the black.
House of Lords
QUOTE(ae589 @ May 30 2007, 12:13 PM) [snapback]652911[/snapback]
This is the effect of tripling stamp duty.

I don't think it's the neginning of the end but I'll be surprised of the US finishes in the black.

Once a few investors use this as an excuse to cash out it'll carry on as before. The employment figures are out today...if they're bad they'll see them as an excuse to cut interest rates so shares will go up. If the numbers are good the economy's on track so shares will go up.

See, you can't lose...shares only go up*, sort of like houses really!

*Of course this only counts until they go down in a very big way which I don't think is quite yet but it's getting there v slowly
ae589
QUOTE(ae589 @ May 30 2007, 12:13 PM) [snapback]652911[/snapback]
I'll be surprised of the US finishes in the black.


Scratch that... it seems to have been shrugged off.
domo
what will happen when china gets killed 4real?

think of all the markets that are due to be slammed

debt, credit

LBO, private equity etc

Parabolic emerging stock markets

some commodities

real estate

weak yen

House of Lords
QUOTE(ae589 @ May 30 2007, 03:10 PM) [snapback]653133[/snapback]
Scratch that... it seems to have been shrugged off.

So predictable...

Click to view attachment
House of Lords
Why is this in this forum?

It's got nothing to do with investment - unless we're talking about house prices in a comlpetely isolated way then this has every reason to be in the main forum.

So when China goes pop and drags the whole shooting game down will we be only able to discuss it in a side forum? It's not strictly house prices you know...

I'm all for keeping the main forum clear but this really isn't about investment and China's stockmarket looks like the biggest trigger for callapsing the current credit boom. And that does affect house prices. mad.gif
Bear Hug
Bought 250 pounds of Gartmore CHina Opportunities Fund last night, before all these falls. Looks like my transaction hasn't been processed yet so might even avoid some of the fall. However, I noticed that couple of mid cap UK unit trusts fell far more this week than Chinese UT has, expected this to be other way around.
Bear Hug
I am sure you all will be happy to know that funds I invested in moved upwards by a few points instead of going down. So all that Chinese stocks crash may have been slightly exaggerated.
wrongmove
FTSE and DJ futures and even the rest of Asia seem to be taking this in their stride.

Chinese stock market tumbles

"The Chinese stock market continued its slide today from the record highs hit earlier this year on speculation the country’s government is happy to see prices fall further.

China’s main index, the CSI 300 Index, plunged more than 5pc to 3595.50, leaving it down about 15pc from the peak it reached at the end of last month.

The extent of today’s decline was in part triggered by a report in a state-owned newspaper that cautioned the market may be experiencing a bubble. An article in the China Securities Journal said that the pace at which prices have climbed is “extremely unusual” and underlines the “structural bubbles” in the market.

The article’s warning comes after the government last week tripled the stamp duty levied when investors trade shares. Despite these measures, the CSI 300, which follows the A shares on the country’s two main exchanges, is up 75pc so far this year.

There is little consensus on what a sustained decline in the Chinese market will mean for the rest of the world. Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, warned last month that a crash was likely.

However, last week research from the US investment bank Lehman Brothers dismissed such concerns and pointed to the fact that the value of the stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen represents only 7pc of the world’s stock markets.

The weakness in the Chinese market had little impact on stock prices across the rest of Asia, which were buoyed by speculation that earnings from US companies will remain strong."
Realistbear
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

China's Stocks Post Record Drop; Extend Rout Past $350 Billion

By Zhang Shidong

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- China's key stock index plunged by a record number of points after the government's main securities daily signaled officials won't try to halt a slump that's erased more than $350 billion of market value in four days.




When Big Al speaks the world shakes. Perhaps he will offer his (public) views on Gordon's miraculous HPI-MEW economy?
Realistbear
Shanghai Composite (China) 3,670.40 8:00am -439.25 (-10.69%)


On top of the 6%+ drop last week.

I wonder if it will be contagious. So far its a yawn here.
wrongmove
QUOTE(Realistbear @ Jun 4 2007, 09:13 AM) [snapback]656836[/snapback]
Shanghai Composite (China) 3,670.40 8:00am -439.25 (-10.69%)
On top of the 6%+ drop last week.

I wonder if it will be contagious. So far its a yawn here.


There is already a thread on this rolleyes.gif

Also, European, US and even Asian SMs seem to have brushed off the news (so far....)

Justice
This is the price you pay for making all that money from thin air.

One day, i think soon, the USD$ is going to go into meltdown and then it's time to start saving food and not money and this all comes with a big thanks to the Blair/Bush NWO pact.
grumpy-old-man
QUOTE(Justice @ Jun 4 2007, 09:36 AM) [snapback]656849[/snapback]
This is the price you pay for making all that money from thin air.

One day, i think soon, the USD$ is going to go into meltdown and then it's time to start saving food and not money and this all comes with a big thanks to the Blair/Bush NWO pact.


this is the way I am looking at it as well, it's going to be very, very bad.
Mikesev
Let's be honest, this wasn't unexpected after the late-Feb drops, either by us on this forum or the City. I don't think there's going to be any overspill this time.
Bubble Pricker
The CSI 300 is down by 16% from its recent high on May 29, a greater decline than during the February falls.

China's Stocks Drop to Three-week Low

Impact on the markets in the rest of the world? Nil, zilch, nada. Even Hong Kong is going up.

I don't want to slap myself on the back, but I am doing it anyway. I forecast precisely this scenario (China bubble bursting - rest of world ignoring it) on GEI just one day before the recent peak in Chinese stocks. I am not directly making any profit from that forecast, as that would have been difficult, if not impossible. However, it did influence my decision to stay long in the US/UK markets, as I rightly suspected they would not be affected by any China market slump.

I am even tempted to go long on the Morgan Stanley A Shares fund (CAF), as I believe the Shanghai bubble will probably get another leg up shortly.
homeless
The Chinese stock market closed more than 8% lower on concerns that the government is set to launch further measures to cool the economy.
The benchmark composite Shanghai share index closed 330.34 points or 8.26% down at 3,670.40.

Chinese shares were hit last week after Beijing opted to triple the tax on stock transactions.

Investors fear China might now embark on a capital gains tax to further cool China's break-neck economic growth.

"Investors are still panicking about recent market talk that the government might levy capital gain taxes," said Wang Jun, an analyst with Merchants Securities.

"In any event many can still sell their holdings and make a big profit," he added.

Despite the drop, some analysts say this is likely to be only be a temporary slide.

Even if the government does embark on more taxes, this will not thwart the overall upward trend of China's stock market, they argue.

China has issued a range of measures recently as part of wider economic reforms, including a new bankruptcy law giving creditors precedence over workers.

Cletus VanDamme
I'm surprised you all haven't posted how this is the start of the global economic meltdown like you did last time.

Once bitten, I guess
Realistbear
QUOTE(Cletus VanDamme @ Jun 4 2007, 02:43 PM) [snapback]657172[/snapback]
I'm surprised you all haven't posted how this is the start of the global economic meltdown like you did last time.

Once bitten, I guess



Big Al suggested the Chinese market was due for a crash and it dropped 6.5% last week and now 8% today. For some reason, crash fever has not spread to other SMs and it may be due to the fact that the P/E ratios are still healthy and nowhere near as bad as the pre-dotcom crash. However, the P/E ratios for houses are worse than those for stocks if you compare where we are today to where houses were pre-dotcom. If the average house in the UK is around 200k and the average salary is 23k the P/E must be at its highest in history.

We live in highly unpredictable times.

Peter & The Wolf
QUOTE(Realistbear @ Jun 4 2007, 03:08 PM) [snapback]657208[/snapback]
However, the P/E ratios for houses are worse than those for stocks if you compare where we are today to where houses were pre-dotcom. If the average house in the UK is around 200k and the average salary is 23k the P/E must be at its highest in history.

We live in highly unpredictable times.


I've mentioned the P/E ratio of housing is out of kilter for some time.
Way out of kilter in fact.
I would argue that this is as good an indicator to an HPC as any.

However, I don't think you can measure the P/E by House Price divided by average salary.
More like House Price divided by rental yield.

I stand to be corrected of course

Lets' get it right
QUOTE(Cletus VanDamme @ Jun 4 2007, 02:43 PM) [snapback]657172[/snapback]
I'm surprised you all haven't posted how this is the start of the global economic meltdown like you did last time.

Once bitten, I guess


This is clearly the start of the global economic meltdown I have been predicting every day for the last 24 years, 3 months and 19 days.

I had a hunch that, sooner or later, I would be right.
domo
Its too early to say what the impact will be on the rest of the world. China seems to have a limit down of 10% on individual stocks so this decline could have yet to reach it potential.

In the global reflation from '03 various markets have peeled off from the credit inflation bull one after the other, for instance real estate, then commodities, now various stock markets are diverging.
domo
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

QUOTE
The CSI 300 Index dropped 204.55, or 5.8 percent, to 3306.88 as of the 11:30 a.m. local-time break, after gaining as much as 0.5 percent. The benchmark has tumbled 21 percent from its May 29 peak after the stamp duty was tripled to 0.3 percent.


Whats coming:

QUOTE(Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds)
The state of matters all over the country was so alarming, that George I shortened his intended stay in Hanover, and returned in all haste to England. He arrived on the 11th of November, and Parliament was summoned to meet on the 8th of December. In the mean time, public meetings were held in every considerable town of the empire, at which petitions were adopted, praying the vengeance of the Legislature upon the South Sea directors, who, by their fraudulent practices, had brought the nation to the brink of ruin. Nobody seemed to imagine that the nation itself was as culpable as the South Sea Company. Nobody blamed the credulity and avarice of the people,--the degrading lust of gain, which had swallowed up every nobler quality in the national character, or the infatuation which had made the multitude run their heads with such frantic eagerness into the net held out for them by scheming projectors. These things were never mentioned. The people were a simple, honest, hard-working people, ruined by a gang of robbers, who were to be hanged, drawn, and quartered without mercy.... In times of great commercial prosperity there has been a tendency to over-speculation on several occasions since then. The success of one project generally produces others of a similar kind. Popular imitativeness will always, in a trading nation, seize hold of such successes, and drag a community too anxious for profits into an abyss from which extrication is difficult. Bubble companies, of a kind similar to those engendered by the South Sea project, lived their little day in the famous year of the panic, 1825. On that occasion, as in 1720, knavery gathered a rich harvest from cupidity, but both suffered when the day of reckoning came. The schemes of the year 1836 threatened, at one time, results as disastrous; but they were happily averted before it was too late. The South Sea project thus remains, and, it is to be hoped, always will remain, the greatest example in British history, of the infatuation of the people for commercial gambling. From the bitter experience of that period, posterity may learn how dangerous it is to let speculation riot unrestrained, and to hope for enormous profits from inadequate causes. Degrading as were the circumstances, there is wisdom to be gained from the lesson which they teach.
wrongmove
Another big drop on the Chinese SMs, but the thread title is a bit OTT IMO. The SM isn't the economy - this is just the rich and savvy taking easy money from the less rich and naive. After a 21% drop, the SM is merely back to where it was just 6 weeks ago!! FTSE and DJ futures are actually slightly up on their close yesterday.


House of Lords
Seems Bloomberg and co don't want to hype the news either - Chinese stock market details buried in the text of a general one about Asia.

Funny how they were following it a lot closer before....
grumpy-old-man
QUOTE(House of Lords @ Jun 5 2007, 07:48 AM) [snapback]657686[/snapback]
Seems Bloomberg and co don't want to hype the news either - Chinese stock market details buried in the text of a general one about Asia.

Funny how they were following it a lot closer before....


Declan described it as "one of those days", then they all had a bit of a false shoulder laugh. dry.gif
Justice
No Global meltdown just yet but take my word for it, it will come and then money and even gold will be useless when everyone is after food and water and fighting to get al they can carry.

You just can not keep making money from thin air and then demanding via taxes that people hand 70% of it back.

margesimpson
QUOTE(grumpy-old-man @ Jun 5 2007, 09:32 AM) [snapback]657702[/snapback]
Declan described it as "one of those days", then they all had a bit of a false shoulder laugh. dry.gif


Inoffensive Declan sums up the BBC's business news coverage.

But as mentioned about, the Chinese stock market and the Chinese economy are two different animals.
grumpy-old-man
QUOTE(margesimpson @ Jun 5 2007, 09:00 AM) [snapback]657728[/snapback]
Inoffensive Declan sums up the BBC's business news coverage.

But as mentioned about, the Chinese stock market and the Chinese economy are two different animals.


Hi margesimpson,

the guy who p1sses me off more is that t1t who presents on the beeb, the one who did the dancing prog (that I never watched btw unsure.gif , the missus might have had it on once or twice wink.gif ), what's his name ??

the subject of the chinese stock markets/economy, I don't understand either tbh. I just have this sense that all is not well, after reading some of the more knowlegable posters threads on here, regarding this subject. Hasn't it gone up by a huge % over the past couple of years ?

hasn't their sm just took some pretty big tumbles in the last few weeks ?

chinese stock market in trouble ??

edited - this article is a few days old as well, haven't they had a few more drops since ? plus the big drop today as the op article states.
domo
QUOTE(wrongmove @ Jun 5 2007, 07:32 AM) [snapback]657680[/snapback]
Another big drop on the Chinese SMs, but the thread title is a bit OTT IMO. The SM isn't the economy - this is just the rich and savvy taking easy money from the less rich and naive. After a 21% drop, the SM is merely back to where it was just 6 weeks ago!! FTSE and DJ futures are actually slightly up on their close yesterday.


500,000 SM accounts have opened a day, 10% of shanghai maids have quit to trade stocks, 100million stock accounts are now open in a nation of poor farmers. The big story of the last few months is its the little guy who is propping up the market - which is why I put in the quote about the south sea bubble.

When this thing tanks there will be massive civil unrest.

domo
from generationaldynamics.com

China already experiencing civil unrest:

QUOTE
Actually, China is coming apart at the seams, and even China's leaders know it. In March, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao said that China is "unsteady, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable." What I wrote in January, 2005, is that China is becoming increasingly unstable and approaching a civil war.

China has tens of thousands of regional riots and demonstrations every year, and there was a big one that made international news just this past week. Thousands of peasants in south-west China have attacked family planning officials, overturned cars and set fire to government buildings in a riot sparked by the state's "one-child" policy. The "one-child" policy was adopted in the late 1970s as a means of controlling population; it forbids any woman from having more than one child, on pain of fine or forced abortion.

According to the news stories, local "family planning" officials have been acting like The Sopranos in enforcing the policy, forcing them to pay thousands of dollars in fine, or having their homes destroyed, possessions taken, face smashed, and fingers broken.

What I read into this situation is that China's family planning officials are over their head in debt in some way, and they're using the kind of desperate measures that Tony Soprano might use to generate some income. That's why the peasants were revolting.




Chinas graveyard bubble:
QUOTE
Well, exactly the same thing has been happening in China. At a time like this, there's so much money (liquidity) is available, that people are willing to invest in almost anything.

Even graveyards.

Yes, there's been a graveyard bubble in China.

It's actually very much like the worldwide real estate bubble. People purchase real estate with no intention of living there, but simply to "flip" the property and sell it again when the price go up.

In China ten years ago, you could have purchased an austere burial tomb for about $25. Today you'd have to pay more like $250, and some go for as much as $2500. In recent years, people have been purchasing graveyards, and then selling the tombs at bubble prices. The bubble has also dramatically pushed up funeral prices.

People have been getting scammed.

One man bought 24 empty graveyard plots in a cemetery called Spiritual Spring. He spent his family's entire life savings -- around $20,000. But the company never delivered the plots, and all he has to show for his investment is 20 certificates -- worthless pieces of paper.

The story of what's been happening in China reminds me of the last days of the Tulipomania bubble of the 1630s, as described in Edward Chancellor's 1999 book, Devil Take the Hindmost, a history of financial speculation:

"No actual delivery of tulips took place during the height of the boom in late 1636 and early 1637 as the bulbs remained snug in the ground. A market in tulip futures appeared, known as the windhandel (the wind trade): sellers promised to deliver a bulb of a certain type and weight the following spring, buyers took the right to delivery -- in the meantime, cash settlement could be made for any difference in market price. Most transactions were expedited with personal credit notes which also fell due in the spring when the bulbs would be dug up and delivered. Gaergoedt boasts of having made 60,000 guilders from his tulip speculations but admits that he has only received "other people's writing." By the later stages of the mania the fusion of the windhandel with paper credit created a perfect symmetry of insubstantiality: most transactions were for tulip bulbs that could never be delivered because they didn't exist and were paid for with credit notes that could never be honoured because the money wasn't there." (pp. 16-18)

Perhaps it's easier to understand how China could be having a graveyard bubble if you realize that it was just like Europe's own Tulipomania bubble.
Servettien
The SM is linked to the economy because of the banks' exposure. Basically, the banks have been lending to individuals who use the loans to buy shares therby realising quick and easy profits. If they start defaulting en masse this will have repurcussions on the level of bad debts (already very high in chinese banks) which will be reflected in different lending policy or worse. However, for this to happen IMHO I think the index has to fall another 30% at least.
pod
QUOTE(grumpy-old-man @ Jun 5 2007, 09:11 AM) [snapback]657739[/snapback]
the guy who p1sses me off more is that t1t who presents on the beeb, the one who did the dancing prog (that I never watched btw unsure.gif , the missus might have had it on once or twice wink.gif ), what's his name ??

Is Graham Norton presenting BBC finance programmes now? wink.gif
FernandoMorientes

21% drop is huge taking into account how volatile and nervous SM's are, imagine the little guy trading his stocks (not really knowing what he is doing) this must be a very shaky time.
Another 5-10% and we could have complete pandamonium and panic selling, some people going to get seriously burnt here I feel.


QUOTE(wrongmove @ Jun 5 2007, 07:32 AM) [snapback]657680[/snapback]
Another big drop on the Chinese SMs, but the thread title is a bit OTT IMO. The SM isn't the economy - this is just the rich and savvy taking easy money from the less rich and naive. After a 21% drop, the SM is merely back to where it was just 6 weeks ago!! FTSE and DJ futures are actually slightly up on their close yesterday.

wrongmove
QUOTE(FernandoMorientes @ Jun 5 2007, 10:56 AM) [snapback]657845[/snapback]
21% drop is huge taking into account how volatile and nervous SM's are, imagine the little guy trading his stocks (not really knowing what he is doing) this must be a very shaky time.
Another 5-10% and we could have complete pandamonium and panic selling, some people going to get seriously burnt here I feel.


No question - there is some pretty serious money being won and lost here.

My point was, that this is not the Chinese economy. This drop was is response to an increase in stamp duty, and to the massive gains of the past weeks and months (the market has only been put back 6 weeks by a 20% crash!!).

It is not due to falling orders or closing factories or dropping exports or rising unemployment. These are all the same as they were last week.

Most Chinese goods are exported so even struggling consumers at home (as a result of SM losses) will not have much effect IMHO.


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