ASPC is very well established, and doesn't really have a lot of new estate agents appearing, so I think it's probably quite useful to monitor the number of properties on sale and how long they've been there.


From a post I made on 21st May:
For sale : 963
Added in last week : 183 (19%)
Added in last month : 667 (69%)
Over a month : 296 (31%)


Today (26th May)
For sale : 968
Added in last week : 194 (20%)
Added in last month : 667 (69%)
Over a month : 301 (31%)

Please don't jump on these and try to read too much into them! I think the important figures are the number added in the last week, and the number that are over a month old. With a lack of ongoing data, it will be absolutely useless until either a crash begins to unfold or a year into it, and, TBH, I probably can't be arsed keeping this up for a year!

BTW, I realise the percentages don't add up to 100%. If you can't work out why, I would probably be wasting any effort.

For sale : 1014
Added in last week : 172 (16.9%)
Added in last month : 684 (67.5%)
Over a month : 330 (32.5%)

For sale : 1058
Added in last week : 171 (16.2%)
Added in last month : 711 (67.2%)
Over a month : 347 (32.8%)

Coming to the boil nicely.

Fit like the noo !!!

I wish I could share your optimism, but without a severe credit crunch and/or the price of oil going down, I don't see significant reductions in price any time soon.


D

How about this news headline:
SHELL SILENT OVER THREAT TO SHED 3,500 JOBS
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/displayNo...;pNodeId=149221

OK, the jobs are going in Nigeria but there's a lot of service and technology companies in Aberdeen that provide for the Nigerian oil market. I'd imagine significant reductions in Nigerian operations will impact Aberdeen.

Any major Shell reductions could have a more negative effect than HPI, speaking personally. I'm hoping that credit will continue to tighten and sentiment will turn here in Aberdeen. Although with the gains of the last 24 months it will still take a bargain to really get me to bite, even if sentiment does turn.

However, some of the outerlying places such as ellon which have went up sharply as the city has become too expensive may take a significant dive. To be honest I'm looking at a pair of green cards for the US - sad really as Scotland is my home, but between excessive taxes and HPI I'm not sure that I want to stay here much longer


D

Unless I am very much mistaken, be prepared for some very interesting news from one major player here in the North East. Can't say much more than that I'm afraid, but it might be enough to gently shake confidence in the market.

D

There have been mumblings of Shell selling the Brent field for some time, however Im now hearing this story from Shell employees themselves.

O.K. the news is out

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/north_east/6752123.stm

Not as bad as I had feared - which is good news for the local economy, but bad news for those of us who would like to see confidence in property take a tumble.


D

P.S. Gruff, apologies for deviating from the original thread subject

No worries. Would have updated yesterday, but I was off work yesterday and didn't log on.

Anyway, the stats:
For sale : 1064
Added in last week : 179 (16.8%)
Added in last month : 718 (67.5%)
Over a month : 346 (32.5%)

Fixed price : 136(12.8%) - I'm going to keep track of these now as well. Either new or after a quick sale...


Edited: I stupidly clicked on "To lease". Corrected now.

Good call on adding the fixed price properties. If we get to the stage where the majority of properties are fixed price, that's properties going for (a conservative estimate of) 20-30 less than they are now (unless people raise their fixed prices to compensate). If we start to see falls in prices of 10 - 20 % and those prices are fixed, that could mean prices (selling prices) fall by up to 50%, without the outward appearance of an all out crash.

For sale : 1090
Added in last week : 173 (15.9%)
Added in last month : 679 (62.3%)
Over a month : 411 (37.7%)

Fixed Price: 139 (12.8%)

For sale : 1144
Added in last week : 185 (16.1%)
Added in last month : 691 (60.4%)
Over a month : 453 (39.6%)

Fixed Price: 150 (13.1%)

For sale : 1155
Added in last week : 140 (12.1%)
Added in last month : 659 (57.1%)
Over a month : 496 (42.9%)

Fixed Price: 162 (14.0%)

I have been working in Norway on secondment for 12 months and am now faced with the bleak prosect of returning to Aberdeen.
I cannot believe how the prices have shot up even though demand seems to be ebbing (you can now buy a flat in London for less than Aberdeen).
I do not relish the prospect of returning to be at the mercy of the local Rachman style landlords and the ridiculously over inflated purchase prices.
I am seriously considering staying in Norway as the quality of life in general is far higher and you can buy a spacious 4 bedroomed house with garage for the price of a 1 bedroomed flat in Rosemount (there are also more jobs here than in Aberdeen).
I think that the way in which people have to make sealed bids for property under Scottish law is largely to blame for the continued high prices in Aberdeen, it is a system which was also used in Norway but abandoned many years ago due to corruption and misuse of the system.

I dont want to tread on your feet Mr Gruff but just been having a look on ASPC and found out the following:


For sale : 1174
Added in last week : 132 (11.2%)
Added in last month : 645 (55.7%)


Fixed Price: 171 (14.6%)

A work colleague put his King Street flat up for sale a couple of weeks ago and so far not so much as a nibble. It's way overpriced of course, but needs to be to justify what he's paid for the new place. I think he's getting a bit worried.
Could the insanity finally be coming to an end?

Sorry, just thought I'd add an anecdotal to all the stats.

A friend has 2 bedroomed semi up for sale and in over 2 weeks thay have had one viewing.

sold a place on kingstreet early this year - a shade over 90k from offers over 65k. Now I see smaller flats in similar locations offers over 110!

I sold my 1 bed flat on holburn street for £123.5k back in March (offers over £74k). I paid £65k for it at the tail end of 2004.

I have been monitoring the ASPC stats for a few weeks now. I'm keeping an eye on fixed prices as that to me is a sign of things slowing down. My search for fixed prices £100k-300k in country areas has gone from 22 on 08/05/07 to 36 today. My filter for detached 3+bed £80k-250k (not fixed) in country areas has gone from 148 homes on 08/05/07 to 219 homes today.

Anecdotally, a guy from work was selling a flat last month and had to put it fixed price to get a sale. Another colleague is selling one on Great Western Place so I will be interested to know what he gets for it.

I've been watching the ASPC over the past year too. I had to move out of Aberdeen at the beginning of the year because it was too crazy to buy or rent when I had to move out my last place. I'd like to get back in though.

I've noticed a lot more FP recently - there were virtually none at the beginning of the year. Things still look overpriced but it's definitely not so crazy now. The one place that was on at FP back in February is still on, with a drop of 10K (it's a strange looking corrugated iron mobile home place. They were asking £110,000 for it, now dropped to £99K). I'm not sure whether it's just a summer dip though...

Realistically I don't think there are any flats in Aberdeen that are truly worth more than 90K. Anyone who pays more at this moment in time is looking at a vast ammount of negative equity in the coming years....
The guy who bought for 65K and sold for 123.5K has 10 years worth of free rent as profit, or at least until the prices drop to enable him to reinvest his profits.
It would seem that the prices in 2004 were far more realistic than they are now.
I cannot understand why people are so keen to buy in when the market is so obviously in meltdown???

The problem with Aberdeen, imo, is that it’s very small and compact. It’s also a long way from any other cities – stuck up there in the north, three hours by train from Edinburgh and Glasgow.

So when it goes into a boom period, which it does due to the oil it really booms. There was a massive oil boom in the 70s and there’s another one happening right now because oil prices are rising, making it economical to really work the fields in a way it just wasn’t worth doing a few years ago. When this happens, loads of people move in within a short space of time, oil companies build, there are vast technological movements. We currently have companies moving in from Eastern Europe bringing a load of staff all looking for places to stay too. It’s this kind of sudden boom that puts huge pressure on prices, buying and renting. Commuting from other places isn’t really on, unless you’re actually working on the rigs, because it’s too far from anywhere big.

However, the effect also works in reverse. When the booms end, everyone packs up and leaves again. It’s relative separation from anywhere else leaves it quite a lonely place, not a place anyone would ideally want to do business. After the 1970s oil boom, prices remained depressed right up until the new boom began last year.

For that reason, I would never buy a place in Aberdeen during a boom. The risks are simply too high. It’s the classic boom/bust economy. I have no idea how long this boom will last, but I suspect not long – shorter than the 1970s one.

If peak oil is really upon us then this boom could last a long time. Having said that, I would not risk buying in Aberdeen at these prices. When the boom turns to bust, anyone with a spare 100k will be able to take their pick of decent houses. After the last bust there were so many properties on the market that even 2 years after the bust had ended there were still so many properties for sale that I was able to buy a flat at 30% discount to the previous high. When this one busts it will probably be more like a 50 or 60% discount such is the extent of the inflated prices.

The guy at my work trying to sell in King street has just changed it to a fixed price and is undercutting the other fixed price identical property in the block by 20K. To me, this is a sign that the Aberdeen market has peaked and is on its way down as earlier in the year another identical flat on his block sold for that higher fixed price.

It's hard to know, isn't it? I moved up at the beginning of last year and didn't buy (although I could have) because it was a temporary job and I wasn't sure I'd like Aberdeen enough to stay. By the time I'd decided, a year later, that I really liked it and would like to stay, prices - rental and to buy - had gone so crazy it wasn't possible to stay either way. So I chucked in the job and moved out. I'd like to get back in, which is why I'm keeping an eye on the ASPC. I'm not sure whether the current apparent glut is just a summer trough and a good time to buy, or the start of things getting back to normal, which would signal prices falling again fairly soon.

I now no longer have a job there either though, so would need both a job and a place to live to go back Bloody property price rises...

Im a little shocked as to how many fixed prices are appearing on the market now, today there are 186.

keep up the good work on the stats Mr Gruff.

I'm just about to buy! My mum just inherited a property from a friend and has sold and my dad has also just sold my grandmothers flat so I don't really have a choice about when to buy cause if I hold off any longer they'll blow it and I can kiss good buy to a depost.

I agree that the oil industry has been booming here for about the last couple of years. I am staff but 90% of the people i work with are contractors and I hear how much their hourly rates have increased by. Most people were getting job offers on a regular basis and attracting new people to fill vacancies was difficult for a while. However, the last few months has seen a marked decline in this activity, well in my area anyway. the workload has dropped off a bit and a few projects have been shelved. I am not sure if this is just temporary or the start of a slow decline. Low gas prices may be part of the reason.
I cant see work declining severely with the oil price consistently high and looking like going higher.

Having sold up earlier this year to move to somewhere bigger (baby on the way) I am waiting until prices drop before I buy back again. I do not want to wish for a downturn in the industry in which I am employed just to bring down house prices. I hope that rising interest rates, credit tightening and falling economic growth will reduces prices across the entire UK including Aberdeenshire whilst my job remains relatively secure. Hopefully this scenario plays out otherwise I will get pretty frustrated and might just end up buying!

I moved out of my Ellon Flat back in March. I couldn't justify paying £800 a month on my own for rent and utilities - especially when I was away three weeks a month.

Since then I've been on secondment in Norway. Life's good here, company apartment and a living allowance means that nearly all my take home pay goes straight into savings. I still do a 3 week / 1 week work rotation with 1 week back in Scotland. Then I just cruise the highlands, climb mountains and stay in cheap (even free) accommodation. I also have enough business visits back in the UK to avoid paying Norwegian Income Tax (so far....)

Now my secondment is soon to move on to Singapore. It's going to be a 1 month/ 2 week work rotation, and it's back to hotels hotels hotels.... I'll just have to see if my admin department will take a receipt for the raffles hotel :-)

Taking brief looks at the aspc website, I see that supply of decent rented accommodation outside Aberdeen around the £600 a month mark is starting to improve again. I'm wandering if this is seasonal, or the start of something bigger.

Anyway, next time I fly back from Singapore, I'm probably wanting to start renting again. But this time on a shared basis rather than on my own. PM me if interested .....

Anthony

I have not visited this site for some time, but I see it is still the same old mantra.

Due to being gazumped and subsequently discovering this site I opted out of the Aberdeen market for a year. In that period I lost over £30,000 which is now lost money.

I bought a property last July which cost me considerably more than if I had bought a similar one the previous year.

I am now very glad that I did subsequently buy back in last July because the property I bought has risen by about £60,000 in a year, given current sale prices of identical properties.

Had I continued to wait for the alleged downturn I would now be about £90,000 behind! It was also touch and go when I bought. Due to constant exposure to this site I still had the vestiges of belief that the crash was coming. I am glad my wife forced the issue, as the market took off again just when we bought.

I have no regrets, and will not have even if a downturn does come, as all prices will drop correspondingly and as long as I am not looking to relocate to a cheaper area, then I am no worse off. I can still trade up from a stronger position than if I had waited another year.

My only regret is that I believed all the talk of an imminent crash and did not buy back in sooner than I did. I deeply regret the loss of a hard won £30,000, which could have been avoided.

The problem is that it is crystal ball stuff and you can get your fingers burned by trying to anticipate the market as I did.

The prices were crazy when you bought Alba but they are more crazy now so it turns out you made a good move by buying (for the moment anyway). The trouble is that for a plan to work, you have to stick to it. In your case you lost 30k by waiting so it will always be in your head now that you lost 30k. You are right that prices got much higher after that but there are now signs of a sticky market in Aberdeen. Many more properties for sale and many more fixed prices. Its got to the point where people cant even accept jobs in aberdeen now because of accommodation cost. I know someone who has gone to fixed price as he's desparate to sell. Another property I've been watching has been on the market for 2 months. It went to "under offer" and is now back for sale. I believe we have reached the top and might just be on the way down now. People cannot afford to buy at these prices.

Just took a look at the rental accommodation on aspc. I am amazed to see 218 properties for rent. I'm sure there was only a small fraction of that when I looked a few months ago. Is this a good or bad sign I'm not sure. Could it be that people are leaving due to fewer jobs or property prices that are just too high?

Put simply, you called the top too soon. Back in 2005 I did not think the property I looked at was overpriced so I bought it. You seemed to think Aberdeen property was overpriced and heading for a crash as far back as July 2005. Relative to the rest of the uk, aberdeen was probably still pretty good value back then. Fast forward a couple of years and we now have city centre flats selling for double the 2004-5 values. Property is not selling so great now. hpi will not be in double figures over the next few years. Conditions are very different today from a couple of years ago. Well i've convinced myself anyway. Time will tell...

You are correct when you said that I thought that properties were overpriced in 2005, but who hasn't thought that down through each successive year?

When I was gazzumped there were other properties that I could have bought for about the same price, but they did not match the one I had lost or quite fit the bill in terms of my requirements. To add to this there was a brief lull and some of these alternative properties were not moving quickly. I decided it was safe enough to wait until the usual October slowdown. This I did, but the anticipated slowdown did not appear, so I was forced to rent for another period of 6 months whilst looking. In that time there was a significant bounce and I found myself having to pay £30,000 to £40,000 more for the same type of property I was after. I subsequently made 13 unsuccessful offers, and the market was now really in gear.

When you compare Aberdeen prices with those of Edinburgh or Glasgow, Aberdeen is still not on a par with those cities. If you also compare Aberdeen with prices in many English cities it is the same story. I am not convinced that Aberdeen prices have yet reached a peak. Also Aberdeen is a very prosperous city given the oil industry, so that has to be added into the equation.

If there was to be a crash in Aberdeen then other cities would not be immune, and for there to be a significant crash in the realms of a 30% to 50% fall in current house prices, we would have a lot more to worry about than the price of houses.

I disagree with what you say about Aberdeen prices. They are now so close to London prices (bear in mind that you can buy a London property for less than the asking price, not 50% more). Actually a 2 bed flat in a good part of west London would cost the same as a 2 bed flat in a good westend location in Aberdeen. That is why I believe they have no further to run. London will always attract big prices but Aberdeen only has its oil jobs. Without them Aberdeen will be one of the cheapest places in the UK.

"and for there to be a significant crash in the realms of a 30% to 50% fall in current house prices, we would have a lot more to worry about than the price of houses."

This is the usual cliche that we always hear on this site. I do not agree with it. Aberdeen was better when there were less jobs and lower pay, but most people could easily afford to buy a house or flat. If prices fall by 30/50% then we will be back in that situation. It will be because there is an oil slump. Something that Aberdeen has survived a few times before.
I guess the problem is that we dont even need an oil slump for this to happen this time. All we need is a return to normal for the oil industry to have many returning to where they came from.

I'm thinking of hiring a caravan as a stop gap until the inevitable correction (I am expecting 30 - 50%).
I just don't see any sense at all in me working damned hard (for at least the next ten years) to pay for what ammounts to an instant free cash money bonus to those who took out minor mortgages just a few years ago.
Money = Work I cannot see any evidence of any work they have done to justify the rewards that they seem to expect. My advice to them would be to get a job and save because there is only a finite ammount of suckers out there who are going to gift them with a free cash windfall.

No worries, been on holiday so haven't updated.

For sale : 1152 - A drop for the first time since I started observing, suspect it's just tailing off after the high season
Added in last week : 143 (12.4%)
Added in last month : 584 (50.7%)
Fixed Price: 177 (15.4%)

Tried posting this a few times this week, the web interface is being a little bit funny for me
For sale : 1156
Added in last week : 117 (10.1%)
Added in last month : 570 (49.3%)
Fixed Price: 180 (15.6%)

I have noticed that in the last week there has been an increase in under offer banners on the ASPC website for the western suburbs after a complete absence of activity for 6 weeks. Not many new properties coming onto the market in our area. I have just returned from seeing a horrendously overpriced piece of junk in this area - seller obviously thinks the market is still buoyant.

A nice detatched country house close to me (between westhill & kingswells) has been for sale for about 3-4 months. No takers. It had an "under offer" sticker up for about a week then it was for sale again. I think anything over £250k is very sticky. My Aunt had to sell her 4 bed detached in Newtonhill for £25k less than she wanted. Almost had to put it on at a fixed price. A guy at work had to put his flat on at a fixed price to sell it.
I'm calling the top for Aberdeen.

At the tail end of last week the number of fixed price properties hit 199, a sign that things are indeed slowing Aberdeen ?


In addition, a friend is currently preparing for selling and was informed that the market is currently "good" but was "excellent" in April of this year. Things are now taking longer to sell.

The number of fixed price properties has now hit 201.

For sale : 1213
Added in last week : 197 (16.2%)
Added in last month : 678 (55.9%)
Fixed Price: 209 (17.2%)

Been too busy at work recently to post.

Checking out some of the fixed price properties on ASPC.

Saw this

http://www-k.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/Liv.../252678#picture

Strangely, the schedule didn't mention the mobile home site adjacent. Yours for a cool 175k (1300 a month repayment @ 8% on 25yr mort). Really is it just me? Am I the only one who thinks things are so out of whack, it is not possible for this situation to continue?


D

Don't pay any attention to the number of flats/houses to rent on ASPC.
Most (maybe 90%) of properties for rent are not included in the list.

Not all properties for sale are included on ASPC either - people selling their houses must pay extra for e.g. advertisement in the P&J property section and on ASPC.

For rental - the market is more liquid - and buyers are less canny/wary of what they are renting (as opposed to buying)
The commission for the estate agent is also much less for rented compared with buying/selling - it doesn't make much sense to advertise away your commission.

- by the way I read that rents of apartments in Aberdeen are the highest in Scotland, and it is the only place in Scotland where rents are increasing at the minute.

- I wouldn't say that property is cheaper in London than Aberdeen. Prices here are relatively cheap but some of the apartments that are coming up for sale are taking the p1ss e.g.

http://www-n.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/Liv.../252501#picture
http://www-n.aspc.co.uk/cgi-bin/public/Liv.../252661#picture

Being back in aberdeen for the past 2 years i can tell you first hand it is crazy...

We got the councillors rejecting plans to build 450 flats in centre of aberdeen...
(See P&J Fri Aug 17th 2007 - page 3 - £50m proposol for former textile factory thrown out - Bradford works)
whilst people looking for £150k for a 1 bedroom flat in aberdeen...

Reason for thrown out - lack of affordable housing... i personally wrote to all teh councillors preaching about supply and demand affecting pricing and not to be so narrow minded...obviously if they built another 450 flats then they would increase supply lowering sale prices effectivley...

House prices only going up in aberdeen but no idea who is buying them...

i reckon:
25-35% of people in aberdeen on benefits (Drugs, alcohol, disability)
20% retired
30-35%% public sector (low paid jobs between 12-25k)
10% foreigners (aberdeen has received 25,000 poles in last 6 months)
15% work in oil related jobs

Ancedotal: a friend rented out his room the other day in 3 bedroomed flat....10 people applied...(5 of them stunning birds - no idea of relevance but nice point) - people desperate for places to stay

All my friends into 30's having to buy further out - dyce, newmacher, kintore, westhill to secure a home..as majority of new builds now affordable or council built (in form of sheltered housing - langstane , homechoice etc)

Maxdiver
The first apartment has a lovely view of Aberdeen prison for that price.
Bargain.

I would have thought that more than 15% of the population of Aberdeen were employed in oil related jobs.

there was an article in the evening express that said that the population growth in aberdeenshire was quite large - and while aberdeen is itself generally shrinking (due to among other things smaller family/household sizes) the towns and villages around aberdeen have seen large numbers of people moving in in the last 10 years.

I'd say that delboy's numbers are roughly ok - you can find out loads of information on demographics from census reports and the council website etc...
However, what aberdeen has that no where else in the UK has is the oil and gas centre. Prices may be crazy - but at least there is a reason for them being crazy.

I'd say that for every 1 oil industry worker there is 3 people relying on them (taxi drivers, estate agents, waiters, hair dressers) as well as a lot of companies set up to deal with them in non oil-related ways e.g. Space Solutions provide the interior design/fit-out for loads of companies.

The Aberdeen economy is growing and compared the rest of the UK is not booming as much since the reasons behind Aberdeen (not general) Property Inflation are not going to go away anytime soom (oil price).

This issue of affordable housing is distasteful if you ask me -
Can you imagine buying a nice luxury 5 bed house with all the trimmings and knowing that next door there are people living there - normal people - who can afford there house!!! wtf?