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Bubble Pricker
I was on the Stephen Nolan show on BBC Radio Northern Ireland.

Click here to listen to the programme.
Badger
Well, I'm happy to turn bull on NI property values, my fiancees folks live there. wink.gif
Fancypants
Nolan is a deliberately irritating presenter. This should be interesting!
Bubble Pricker
Don't worry I can handle him
Charlie The Tramp
QUOTE(Bubble Pricker @ Feb 7 2007, 10:17 AM) [snapback]546389[/snapback]
Done. I think it went very well. Did anyone listen?


Yep, I was all ears. Shame the fact that the UK economy has been consumer led, fuelled by debt on the back of high house prices was not brought up.
Kuma
QUOTE(Bubble Pricker @ Feb 7 2007, 10:17 AM) [snapback]546389[/snapback]
Done. I think it went very well. Did anyone listen?


I listened and I thought you handled yourself very well, by the end the RICS guy was struggling with his sentences. wink.gif

Bubble Pricker
QUOTE(Charlie The Tramp @ Feb 7 2007, 10:20 AM) [snapback]546392[/snapback]
Shame the fact that the UK economy has been consumer led, fuelled by debt on the back of high house prices was not brought up.



Yes, there are so many points to make and so little time during these features.
Duplex
QUOTE(Bubble Pricker @ Feb 7 2007, 12:22 PM) [snapback]546394[/snapback]
Yes, there are so many points to make and so little time during these features.

Any chance of a brief synopsis of the points raised BP?
Kuma
QUOTE(Bubble Pricker @ Feb 7 2007, 10:22 AM) [snapback]546394[/snapback]
Yes, there are so many points to make and so little time during these features.


Yeh, it's not possible to mention everything.

The important points got made; The increase in house prices has nothing to do with shortage of supply, instead prices have been driven up by speculation fuelled by cheap credit.
booboohoo
Northern Ireland is the new East Anglia. As they say history repeats itself but never in quite the same way. In the last crash the area of East Anglia was the last to participate in the boom. East Anglia was considered remote with stories in the papers about people commuting for hours because they couldn't afford anything closer to london. Well this time around it is Northern Ireland that will be the last place to see mega gains before the crash for pretty much the same reasons.
Duplex

QUOTE
NI house prices highest in Europe


House prices in Northern Ireland have risen more than anywhere else in Europe, according to a new report.

The cost of property increased by an average 36% in 2006, more than three times the figure for the UK as a whole.

The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors European Housing Review found the market was proving extremely difficult for first-time buyers.
RICS Northern Ireland spokesman Tom McClelland said growth across Europe had been solid.

The continent had resisted the lead of the US, where the market ground to a halt, he said.
'Pushed prices up'

"Fears of a considerable house price slowdown in the UK, Spain and the Republic of Ireland - which are considered to be over-heated markets - once again proved to be off the mark," he said huh.gif .



BBC Northern Ireland



The Northern Irish economy is a basket case, beyond compare.



QUOTE
Undoubtedly, the economy is in trouble. It is alarmingly dependent on the British state, which is responsible for 63% of economic activity and directly employs a third of all workers. Its manufacturing industry, which was heavily reliant on the textile, clothing and ship-building industries, has shed 100,000 jobs in the past 35 years.

It has had some limited success in attracting foreign investment — about 100 American companies provide employment for some 23,000 people — but its achievements pale beside the Northern Ireland’s economic statistics, which show reasonable growth and low unemployment, mask a host of problems. State spending, which is now under severe threat from Brown’s belt-tightening regime, is the main driver of the economy.

Unemployment figures do not show the true level of economic inactivity in the north, where the number of people claiming incapacity benefit is 74% above the UK average. Neither do they chart the scale of the province’s brain drain. Because the number of university places is capped, more than a third of school- leavers attend university in the UK, and half of them never return.

The British subvention runs at a net £5 billion (€7.4 billion) a year, yet, for all the money, the quality of services falls below UK standards. Northern Ireland’s health service receives 9% more per head of population than the UK average, but its waiting lists are longer and productivity is lower.
Sunday Times


QUOTE
Northern Ireland is now a junkie economy, hopelessly addicted to handouts from the British exchequer. It is difficult to see how it can wean itself off. Far from benefiting from an economic “peace dividend”, the North has become progressively more reliant on handouts. In the past, when the IRA were bombing and maiming, it was possible to explain the North’s financial neediness on the “war”.

Today, more than 10 years after the ceasefire, that no longer holds water.
Why is the North such an economic basket case, more akin to East Germany than Western Europe? Why are all its unionist leaders happy to be the most craven region of the UK? (My targeting of the unionist in particular is based on the assumption that nationalists are not happy with London full stop. That said, Sinn Fein’s economics and those of the DUP seem remarkably similar and essentially Statist). Why are they happy to simply stick out their economic forearm for yet another fix? Why do we not hear someone talking about the economy and the need for the North to stand up on its own two feet? After all, ask people down here and (despite our problems) most will attest to the liberating nature of getting the economy right finally.


Sunday Business Post


Jason
Hello Stephen Nolan, didn't realise you read this site!
notanewmember
good show






PS - Hello Mr Nolan !
headmelter
Well done BP, listened to you on the way to work and posted the link on the NI local house prices thread.

AFAIK Tom McClelland is an EA ph34r.gif

It was unfortunate there was no time for the usual phone in at the end, that would have been interesting...........

Oh yeh, Stephen frequents this site, he might do a follow up, maybe as his main topic since it is so relevant at the minute. wink.gif

Any chance fat chops? blink.gif
Fancypants
QUOTE(Jason @ Feb 7 2007, 07:31 PM) [snapback]547054[/snapback]
Hello Stephen Nolan, didn't realise you read this site!


blink.gif ?????
Little Professor
OK guys, I've uploaded the interview as a 11 minute mp3. Enjoy:

http://www.box.net/public/d8nv4qojbh
Jason
QUOTE(Fancypants @ Feb 7 2007, 08:37 PM) [snapback]547097[/snapback]
blink.gif ?????


He said he follows this website.
Fancypants
QUOTE(Jason @ Feb 7 2007, 08:59 PM) [snapback]547112[/snapback]
He said he follows this website.


sorry, yes got it in the end!
Webmaster
Excellent work Reinhard.
christh
Good stuff! One thing though, when you said 5.5%, didn't you mean 5.5x when you were talking about FTB's mortgage to salary ratio?

And thanks for the mp3, Little Professor.
prophet-profit
here is a bump to the other thread:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=41908

which features the tv programme which was a pre-cursor to the radio interview
Smell the Fear
QUOTE(christh @ Feb 7 2007, 10:43 PM) [snapback]547179[/snapback]
Good stuff! One thing though, when you said 5.5%, didn't you mean 5.5x when you were talking about FTB's mortgage to salary ratio?

And thanks for the mp3, Little Professor.


I think we can forgive him that! Great performance, he even had the RICS guy admitting that it was all down to easy credit which will not last forever. And despite mentioning "doom and gloom" the presenter was fairly impartial, which is generally unheard of.

Pretty straight talking people those Northern Irish. Not afraid to tell it like it is, probably due to their political environment (being a small population without a global super rich elite lording it over them may also help).
christh
QUOTE(Smell the Fear @ Feb 7 2007, 11:30 PM) [snapback]547220[/snapback]
I think we can forgive him that! Great performance, he even had the RICS guy admitting that it was all down to easy credit which will not last forever. And despite mentioning "doom and gloom" the presenter was fairly impartial, which is generally unheard of.

Pretty straight talking people those Northern Irish. Not afraid to tell it like it is, probably due to their political environment (being a small population without a global super rich elite lording it over them may also help).

Oh yes certainly, a great performance indeed. And about the RICS guy, well that's twice I've been impressed by their straight-talking on the whole issue - last time I saw a RICS guy on News 24 he was surprisingly bearish on the market. Quite a surprise after the (deserved) massive panning the RICS gets on these forums.
adrian101
QUOTE(Bubble Pricker @ Feb 7 2007, 09:08 AM) [snapback]546312[/snapback]
I was on the Stephen Nolan show on BBC Radio Northern Ireland.

Click here to listen to the programme.



excellent,
this boom will go long as long as banks keep lending IO at every increasing multiples
interest rates stay low
people keep willing to borrow so much
and the defaults stay low

if defaults rise (er they are rising)
bad debts increase (er they are)
Insolvencies etc increase (er they are)
interest rates increase (er they are)
borrowers get nervous about ever increasing debts
then we are in for trouble
er
thats it





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