Listening to year-end analysis, and prospects for 2005, I have come across a great resource which is this weekend's interview on FinancialSense.com. Here's the Link: in Windows Media : in Real Player

...
Charts: U.S. Interest rates, not keeping up with Rising Prices

Key Points:
+ Rising growth in the US and China, has meant that these two giants are using increasing amounts of energy and commodities. Where will those resources come from?

+ Traditional sources are depleting. The North Sea is running out. So are Alaska and the US Gulf. We are at or near "Peak Oil", the point where oil production begins to decline. This is not an economic issue, it is geological. The easy-to-find oil has been found. Incremental oil and gas is harder to find, more expensive to produce. Thus a real energy crisis is coming, not one that will be solved by more production, like in 1974-1980.

+ The new sources of oil will be in countries around the Caspian Sea. There is likely to be a war between the US and China (or their proxies) over this oil. In particular, Iran is a place to watch.

+ Meantime, the US has had a strong currency, which is in demand as a reserve currency, and as a medium for exchange for global trade. Exporting countries Japan and China have been big buyers of the US currency, which helps to keep their own currencies from getting too strong. But the US has big problems: Big trade and budget deficits. The US cannot go on absorbing the lion's share of the world's savings, particularly when that imported money is going towards unsustainable consumer spending.

+ Thus, the USA is particularly vulnerable to a shift in demand away from its currency. A weaker dollar will mean much higher oil prices, particularly in dollar terms. And this will push up US inflation, and US interest rates. The property sector is likely to be hard-hit by higher rates. And the US government will be unable to meet its social security commitments. The US living standard will decline. People will be angry. Politicians will exploit it.

+ The US government is essentially bankrupt. It will be unable to meet its commitments to it own citizens (as Baby-boomers retire) and to foreigners UNLESS it prints massive amounts of money. This will serve to devalue its currency (increasing oil & other import prices), and eventually put up long term interest rates. A Brazil or Argentina-type crisis could come, where the currency plummets, rates rise, and the economy declines sharply.

+ China will be the worlds next great power. It will face some chaos and readjustment, lasting for a few years, but after that it will emerge as THE world power, as the US declines.

+ Commodities are the place to be, probably for at least 5 years or more. But they will not go up in a straight line.

See: http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/roundtable/121804.html

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Reviews of Trader websites: trade2win/reviews : Advfn-US

Did anyone listen to the broadcast(s)?

Listening now

Just listening now, skip the first 9 mins 10 seconds to avoid the shares info and go to the conversation.
From your summary Dr B I guess its time to start learning Chinese

all I get is a techno acid trip I'm afraid.

B.T.

Avoid Windows media, and try the Real Player link:
http://204.214.92.31/weblogix/netcastdaily...2004-1218-2.ram

SFSS,
"Ni Dui": You are right

It all ultimately extrapolates to quite scary stuff.


We're probably going to wipe ourselves out fighting over the last few drops of oil. There'll be one lone remaining soldier, standing over the very last barrel, on a nuclear-scorched battlefield that covers the whole planet. Then he'll take the last barrel, pour it into the fuel-tank of his Humvee, and drive home.

One thing they touched on, which I find quite interesting, is the way that oil underpins a society where no-one has any self sufficiency. Everything you need is mass produced by someone else elsewhere in the country or world, and is simply shipped to where it's needed (using oil to power trucks, ships, etc). They pointed out that this did not always used to be the case, and previously people would only tend to spend money on things they couldn't do themselves. The increasing pressure on oil prices will put pressure on the cheap transportation that facilitates this convenience lifestyle.

However, what they didn't touch on is how this cheap mass transport (facilitating the cost-efficient distribution of mass production) is that this itself underpins the wealth generated through the division of labour. Adam Smith correctly identified that efficient division of labour underpins much of the wealth of nations. The improved efficiency through labour/skill specialisation (including the use of specialist machinery) allows goods to be produced for less labour, making goods cheaper to produce, making them more plentiful, and increasing the diversity of goods able to be produced.

However, even in the 18th century Smith understood that the economics of relative mass-production and division of labour/specialisation of skills was only achievable when supported by cheap and effective transport. He identified that the most prosperous and developed cities were always those that were well served by ships via rivers and seas. (Ships being the only real cost effective mass transport of the day).

In the present day it is oil that facilitates this. The more scarce and expensive oil becomes, the more it costs to transport goods, the less financial benefit there becomes to shipping cheap goods from the other side of the planet (or even country) compared to producing them more locally. This contraction of globalised industry increases prices of goods - either because you are priducing everything more locally at a higher price, or producing them further afield for a lower price but then paying for very expensive transportion to market.

Higher oil prices guarantee higher inflation. And higher inflation gurantees higher interest rates and more expensive borrowing. Whether we like it or not, things are going to get very difficult.

Ah, the imagination of the young generation, better take your cyanide pills now.

"Then he'll take the last barrel, pour it into the fuel-tank of his Humvee,
and drive home."

Home... to find what? An economic wasteland, perhaps.

"Everything you need is mass produced by someone else elsewhere in the country or world, and is simply shipped to where it's needed (using oil to power trucks, ships, etc). They pointed out that this did not always used to be the case, and previously people would only tend to spend money on things they couldn't do themselves. The increasing pressure on oil prices will put pressure on the cheap transportation that facilitates this convenience lifestyle."

I see a huge rise in Self-Reliance in the future.
People wanting to do for themselves, because those far-away others,
have become unreliable, and too expensive.

There will be a TIMES cover: "The Self-Reliant Economy" within 3-5 years

Whoa - Apocalyspso ! it's much worse than I realised.

I thought the best bit was in the second part - at 23mins 42 secs into the interviews. The study that was censored by the US Treasury, which although it talks about $51 Trillion debt, I think is published in full at http://www.aei.org/publications/bookID.426/book_detail.asp
The $44 Trillion had now become $51 Trillion. Basically the US Gov is bankrupt because they need $51 Trillion now, which to cover it is a 71% rise in income tax or social security benefit spending cut by 51% !

The book mentioned, about the bombshell of the US having the largest amount of babay boomers retiring in the next few years, 'the coming generational storm is at http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/search...6631213-5516423

DOES ANYBODY KNOW WHEN THE WORLD'S OIL RESERVES ARE PREDICTED TO RUN OUT?

FORGET HOUSEPRICES FOR A SECOND, ARE WE ALL DIGGING OUR HEADS IN THE SAND???

At current consumption of 80 million barrels per day and excluding tar sands.

33 years.

Thats not the problem, this is

Economic growth=barrels of oil/time consumed.

Yes.

But dont worry, scientists and that will make it alright, wont they?

Showing your age again.

Dr Bubb

I agree self reliance is the key to survival both on a personal and national level.

I read somewhere that the US could reduce its reliance on oil by simply carpetting a 1/3rd of Nevada or Arizona (cant remember which) desert with solar panels. This was at least 20 years ago I think, with the advances in technology I am sure this is achievable. what a goal to aim for! - virtually free - non poluting energy.

The spare oil can be used to run those splendid V8's at the weekend I guess.

I dont know why the US does not do this, or something similar, I guess it is pure lazyiness and the fact that Bush has his tongue so far up the oil bosses rectums.

What are solar panels made of?

I didn't think we needed any scientists anymore. According to people like BBB (and the entire Singing Pig fraternity), education and university is a waste of time, and why would anyone try to make money through such academic research when the real money is now firmly in BTL in the new paradigm.

I thought scientists were working on an alternative fuel. In future our cars and power stations would be fuelled by hydrogen gas. No problem doesn`t hydrogen come from water H2O, plenty of that in the world, and when that runs out think of all the surplus land.
Always remember scientists discover and engineers build. These people in the future will have the wealth. Now where can I buy shares in them.

Absolutely, I can't beleive George Dubya's big vision is sending men to Mars. Instead of trying to ape Kennedy, in my opinion, he should have thrown his weight behing fusion and getting away from fossil fuels. I know they are now part-funding ITER but it just seems a bit too little too late. How about: "I beleive this nation should commit itself, to achieving the goal, before a decade is out, of building a working prototype fusion power station". OK, I won't make a speach writer, but I think the principle is sound. Never mind the economy - our climate is at risk.

Does the fusion machine make cheap plastic shite bought by Chavs who under pin the whole global economy? I hope so.

This fusion machine, does it change H to He ?

Uhhh, this is a man who reneged on the Kyoto Protocol and has spent his entire life in the oil industry. Do you really think he gives a **** about the environment? And if you do, how naive are you?

Could not find the page I had in mind but read these

My Webpage

http://www.guardian.co.uk/renewable/Story/0,2763,1253137,00.html

[URL=http://www.citb.co.uk/futureskills/default.asp://http://www.guardian.co.uk/renewable...lls/default.asphttp://www.citb.co.uk/futureskills/default.asp

There is loads of info on the web

I am not talking about the radiator variety but the ones that generate electricity directly - these are called PV systems of photovoltaics. Although the former are good for summer water heating requirements.

At the equator I think around 1.5kw falls per square metre, with an efficiency of 20% say that is a fair conversion. Even in the UK I think over 700W falls per square metre. so an avergae house roof could supply most of the average household needs - 80-140 W/m^2. You can also sell any excess capacity back to the grid and get a 50% grant. I calculated that it would cost me £8K (self install) to provide me with 3.5KW peak of electricity, which is pretty good - but would take a long time to pay back so not worth it, but of you factor in the 'real' cost of supporting a carbon based economy - ie wars then perhaps solar PV should be a bargain

Nearly all of a solar panel is made from oil based products. In fact a friend of mine has BP stamped on his

What about the batteries?

When I started my career I saw a cartoon in the electrical engineers section.

It showed a picture of two high performance sports cars and one shoddy bycycle. It said at the bottom - guess which is the Sales person, which is the Acountants and which is the Engineers.

Engineers get treated dreadfully here, if we do invent something or produce a superbly engineered product someone else steals it. Basically it is very hard to be a good engineer and a businesman - hats off to those that can do both - eg Dyson.

Are they made from OIL? The framework yes, but I though semi-conductors were silicon based - ie sand.

Bateries are lead and acid, but you do not need these, you just need an inverter to conver DC to AC to be put directly on the grid.

We will still need oil for a long time after a new source of power has been fully utilised and used by the masses. We will still need oil to extract raw materials, manufacture, transport and maintain any of the new systems for some time.

So we need to start using alternative fuels NOW so the transition from fossil fuels to to new fuels is smooth and seemless.

We cant wake up one day and find that the petrol stations are empty and go "oh shoot there s no more petrol" and twiddle our thumbs for 100 years before the new systems are in place. How are we going to live? Food, Medicines etc ?? They are not going to magically appear on your doorstep.

I beleive the design they have in mind is for the reaction to be deuterium (hydrogen atom with a neutron) and tritium (hydrogen with two neutrons) making helium (edit: I forgot the most important part, the reaction also creates a very energetic neutron - the neutrons and not confined by the magnetic field and transfer energy out of the plasma and into the reactor walls where it is turned into heat). The deuterium would come from sea water and the tritium would be bred in the reactor from lithium. I don't have have the time to search for some good links for you (I'm trying to take up my trouser hem at the moment) but:
http://www.fusion.org.uk/focus/index.htm
should be a start.

zzg - of course you are right - I just meant that's what I think he should have done.

Dr B - sorry about the digression. I'm glad you have flagged up this perfect storm stuff and will look at it in more detail sometime. I listened in but have nothing sensible to say except my last Tesco bill was a bit steep!

Then you won't have power at night or on a cloudy day.

Don't give that lot your money!!!!

Absolutely,

This does need doing now. I for one would like to solve the problems in the middle east by not requiring their oil. The silly buggers can do what they like then.

88s,
Your:
"I read somewhere that the US could reduce its reliance on oil by simply carpetting a 1/3rd of Nevada or Arizona"

Hard to believe, but maybe.
Still, the capital cost of this venture would be prohibitive, and as others have said, the required equipment and infrastructure would need huge amounts of oil and energy to develop it. It might be decades before the energy out, would cumulate to more than the energy-in to build it.

Many think that coal and uranium are the only logical alternatives.
Another solution is to build smaller and lighter vehicles than use less oil.

Please 88's, if you know something I dont.

I will try and find the info. I just need the square metres of the two states and the anual US electricty requirements. If I work on a modest 75 W / metre I think it will be quite a large number - we are talking 75MW / square km. So a 10 x 100 km area could yield 75 GW

But I agree we cannot get away from Nuclear, and yes use less resources in the first place is a good start! Make the US consumers pay $5 / gallon (3.7 litres) would be a step in the right direction.

These are cures for symptoms not diseases!

Dom, it's fairly easy to store energy generated at peak generation times (ie midday) so that it can be used to supply demand at any given moment.

You are quite correct - no light = no photons = no electrcity.

But on a cloudy day they still work.

The point I am trying to make is that if every UK household had PV and conventional Solar (radiators) on their roofs then we would not need so much coal, gas and probably oil.

We also need Nuclear, there is nothing wrong with Nuclear power generation providing it is managed correctly. It is the only source on engery not derived from the Sun.

Agreed.

In the 80s we all blasted on about the green house effect, and how we are going to run out of fossil fuels and all... whats happened?

Now we are a throw away society - look how much plastics we use everyday and just throw away... these come from oil - people! Plastic bottles, food wrappings, carrier bags, boxes etc. Everything is made of plastic.

We should stop using oil to make frivalous things and start a major program of recycling and reusing plastics.

I make an effort to recycle most of the waste plastics in the hosue and take my own carrier bag to the shops.

You pump water up a mountain and let flow down and generate electricity at night. They have been doing this in cant spell it - denorwig - in wales for years. This is a simple store and highly efficient.

http://www.energylan.sandia.gov/sunlab/overview.htm



Here is the information. Only 9% of Nevada would need be to converted to solar panel use to provide 100% of the US's energy demand.

You don't have any hands on experience of solar do you?

Couldnt agree more again.

If the whole roof was a energy collector, then the amount of enery collected and stored in batteries could be enough to power the house holds needs like the fridge, low enegy requiring TV, energy saving lights etc. In winter we may have to resort to fossil fuels however, but at least this prolongs the oil reserves somewhat. (Get every home to have super thick insulation in the roof and walls). Local power sources such as wave, geothermal, wind etc should be harnessed where possible.

Cars could be fueled by alcohol which can be harvested from sugarcane plantations. Alcohol fueled generators to provide electricity in the home are another option.

It wont be the same type of lifestyle we take for granted today - but it will be much simpler.

The future is still bright

Thanks for that. My info was from a book I read at school.

Anyway, only 9% now. Come a long way.

Why the hell dont they do it!, at the bottom of your link it says that electricty generation costs for this technology should fall to 4-5C / kwh.

If they used 20% of otherwise useless desert then perhaps the whole American Continent could be serviced.

Currently, all parabolic trough plants are "hybrids," meaning they use fossil fuel to supplement the solar output during periods of low solar radiation. Typically a natural gas-fired heat or a gas steam boiler/reheater is used; troughs also can be integrated with existing coal-fired plants.

No,

But I think it is a potential growth area. There are loads of companies doing this now - many cowboys I fear though.

You can do it yourself quite easily. Just simple electrical engineering knowledge required and a head for heights.

Its all about Batteries !

No it's not.

Really! Do they carry them into the desert?