The local rag has a regular "news" article from TOPS property service, based in Norwich. For the last few weeks the guy that is "interviewed" has been a bit downbeat about things...

Overpricing makes selling difficult

He says that viewings, offers made, sales completed, and new houses onto the market are all down in the last view months.
He goes on "My view is that many asking prices have been pushed too far and that property no longer appears to be affordable."

There's a bit of a delay in the time it takes for them to get the articles onto the website. Last week's (16/11) was titled "Rate Rise Has Little Effect", but when talking about the future he goes on to say:
"We see the market getting tougher in 2007, prices have steadied, and we can't see any reason for massive house price inflation next year. The view is that bank base rates could move upwards again and we see this dampening in the housing market. That would probably be a good result - a steadier market, less pressure and a bigger choice."

The property section is full of houses with sale agreed/sold across them, and a new one recently "New Price!" I'm not organised enough to check if this is actually a reduction in price, or an increase, being made to look like a reduction...

At least he's honest which is refreshing, but have you seen the number of houses which are 'chain free', 'new instruction' etc. 'New price' is marketing hype for 'we can't sell it at this price so we've had to reduce it!'.... it's more upbeat and sounds less negative than 'reduced'!

Chain free = 'investor' trying to bail out

I don't see the property supplement getting any bigger than what it is circa 100 pages big. What I do see is more auction stuff appearing which it is - the TOPS one is a regular 2 page spread now which shows the market is flat/declining. Don't know if this is new, but TOPS have been advertising on Radio Broadland as well so are clearly looking at other avenues to generate business.

ps

It was yours truely who originally put the link to the German castle

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...&hl=germany

Have been looking at property in Germany and France for some time and was astounded how cheap some property in Germany (East) was.

I thought the New Price thing was discounted, but there were a couple I couldn't be too sure about! There are a LOT more chain free ones in (I get the Norwich Evening News, not the EDP, so different range of houses) and have seen a few that have been advertised as the monthly price for mortgage - not the total price (it was a couple of new build apartments that weren't shifting) which was a new one on me.

A few weeks ago I saw an ad for a Thetford property that had "special price for 2 weeks only!"... makes you wonder what they do after the 2 weeks - if it doesn't sell at the "bargain" price, it's not like they can put the price back up again!

Evening News property is normally 48/52 pages, but this week it was 56, so it's getting bigger. Not sure about the TOPS radio ads - don't listen to Broadland, but I keep track on the auctions - next one's on Tuesday, and they normally put the results in on the Thursday after I think. Last ones results were a bit more subdued than normal - Glad you thought that it was flat/declining - sometimes its difficult to judge, as I'm sure my idea of what's a reasonable price for property changes with time.

Thought it must have been you that started the German castle thing - but was more impressed at the price for that apartment in Berlin! We were in Frankfurt last month, and even there the prices didn't seem too bad. Seems like living expenses are less too - and the cake selection is considerably greater... which is more of a consideration than house prices!!

I'm just going through the motions when looking at property now - I'm not interested in buying anymore as it's become a mugs games. Rightmove I put in £100k max/2 bedroom/5 mile radius to check what is falling into this but not much as yet - a lot of property does'nt seem to be listed on there anyway. I look at the EDP supplement (96 pages this week) each week and scan for South Norwich 2/3 bedroom terraces and 2 bedroom flats but there's decidedly little change. It's got a way to go before we see price drops IMO and what is happening right now in the US economy is key so the coming 12 to 18 months should be interesting as property is currently about 40% above trend.


http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/...2455507,00.html



Here we go again!. No soft landing as we have low inflation so this one is going to hurt a lot more

ps

Yes, can't beat nice continental cakes - far better than our jam donuts

Have just checked up on the TOPs sale from the end of November - bit disappointing really - all the lots that were sold all went within or above the expected range. Only a few were left unsold, none of which in Norwich.

I think there seem to be a view more at the bottom end of the price scale - counted about 5 in the 100-110K price range in the last Evening News I trawled through. The guy that reports in the Property "News" section has changed his tune again - it's all about sprucing your house up to sell in time for Christmas... although I would say that time is running out to achieve that now!

Spoke to an Uncle who lives in the States, we were talking about property programmes (mentioned about how C4 had gone onto one called Selling Houses now) he said that the selling houses programmes started in being shown over there about 6 months ago - so I live in hope that this minor indication is a good one! It was nice to talk to someone who could actually see it happening where they were (albeit an ocean away!) was an encouragement not to cave in to house buying pressure!

I delight in the fact that if I was paying the mortgage on the house that we are renting not only would it cost more (rent vs mortgage) but that it would be us, not the LL , to foot the bill for a new brick wall that needs doing - Hurrah!

ps ... continental cakes - mmmm! Feeling myself drawn to Druckers, but will resist! I miss Zinkermanns on the Unthank Rd though - they were a big loss to the city

There's still too many 'Jonny come lately' amateur speculators buying property from auctions to either do up and sell on for profit or rent out - flats seem to be going for even more money than the beginning of the year. I really can't believe that someone paid £112K for a 2-bedroom flat above a parade of shops where the kids sometimes hang out and make lots of nosie till late at night - completed in August according to nethouseprice.com at the time of the first rate rise. The flat stood empty for 6 months or more and the neighbouring flat with recently fitted kitchen sold for only £90K just 5 months earlier - obviously the new owner did'nt do their research and paid far too much.

Some friends purchased a 2-bedroom flat in Earlham Court (Heigham Grove) about 2 and a half years ago for £114K

Look how much this muppet is asking for a 1-bedroom flat now!!!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-529...10&tr_t=buy


Seriously, what idiot is going to pay that when you can now already get this tidy looking 3-bedroom terrace with a garden:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-139...12&tr_t=buy

Just shows how many speculators are operating in the market


On one of my previous threads (come build in my garden!) .... hmm, no thanks, I'll wait a few more years and pay a little more to get the house as well!!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-501...19&tr_t=buy


Your right what you are saying about renting - that first example I gave where the flat sold for £112K is incredible given tenants there are paying between £400 - £500 per month. Just how dumb are some people?. You know, one person I spoke to who is just getting into property could'nt even tell me what the yield was on the property he was hoping to buy - 'what do you mean?' he said!, but I could'nt be bothered to explain as he's a young (too young to have seen the last crash) arogant gobshite who just spouts out that property doubles every 7 years!. Good luck to him - I think he will need it.

Only went into Zinkermanns (were they German owners?) a couple of times and do remember that they had a great following with people living in the Golden Triangle, the same as the Fish and Chip shop does on Stafford Street. It's sad to see small independant shops go to the wall and it is hard competing against the big boys - lets hope Tesco's don't eventually get their way for the former garage site on Unthank Road. I'm trying to resist eating too much cake and chocolate a the moment as I've got 'the wrong side' of 13 stone and 14 stone is approaching fast! - people are starting to notice so it's time to get fit. Don't want to be having my stomach stapled in a few years time!

Norwich house prices latest figures:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...s/html/33ug.stm

Thanks for the links - surprised that Breckland and South Norfolk are so high in comparison to Norwich - I can only imagine it's a whole bunch of BTLers getting in on the act - there have been a whole heap of overpriced new builds going up, and someone's taken the bait.

East Anglia Wages

"The median weekly earnings for a Norfolk full-time employee is £381.70, compared to £450.10 in the eastern region and £422.90 in the UK (2004)." (this is the most up-to-date data I could find)

That means the median yearly is £19,850 (this surprised me, I thought it would have been less than that).

So if a terraced house (I choose this, as I'd like to think that someone on the median income should be able to happily afford what is probably the median property...) is 153K, thats over 7 x median income - something stinks!

That 135K flat does have a garage... and from your Previous finds we know that's worth £19,500 on its own!! So really the flat is only on for £115,500...

I know the madness has to end, but when you look at 100K for a strip of back garden... I'm starting to wonder how and when...

People are still putting up a good fight against Tesco about that old garage - it's not like they're needed there really I wonder how long Tesco can keep fighting for before it's all over? I think they only get one more appeal? Their plans don't exactly fit in with the area (although I'm guessing the garage looked a bit out of place too? I have the memory of a goldfish, and don't recall what it used to be like)

As for cake... I've spent the last week making snowflake shaped marshmallows (to give with boxes of hot chocolate) and homemade fudge for Christmas gifts - so I think I'm off sugar for a bit - but not for long!!!

As for the other thread - with what you can get for your money elsewhere - you can sign me up for Canada!

No worries about the links - doubt anyone else from Norwich looks at them though

It's amazing - the power of the internet which we did'nt have back in 1988 - it's all there for people to read and research.... this excellent website and other information on bubbles/crashes and yet look how many people post on this section - just you and me it seems!. I'll get some muppet come into my shop and try and beat me down in price because he's seen how cheap he can get it on the internet and it's £10 or £20 cheaper...... the same muppet then goes and pays 40% more for a house than it's really worth costing him thousands more without researching the market fully and seeing that prices could soon crash. That is why it will crash because all the unthinking sheeple out there can't see it coming and can't be bothered to do their research and believe what the vested interests tell them. Good luck to them as they will need it.

I'm sure that the median wage is different from the average wage - is'nt it the middle 50% of earners?. I thought the average wage was slightly higher for Norwich/Norfolk - something like £20.5 to £21K but I can't find it on the National Statistics website - it's not easy to navigate or search by although I guess the information must be there somewhere:

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/

It's difficult to know when it's going to end - there's certainly another rate rise coming early February and possible one more in May. The earlier 2 hav'nt fully worked through yet so this must finally put an end to the HPI madness. My decision is now to stay out of the market and buy when a 10% deposit and 3.5X salary is sufficient for a terrace house - in the meantime I'm getting the deposit I have working for me by investing it into funds.

I suppose the old petrol station was a bit out of place but that's what Norwich used to be like before big supermarkets came along and started selling fuel.
Homemade fudge sounds lovely - sounds like you are a good cook and personal gifts like that always say more about the person than buying something expensive as a gift. Funny (well, may be not...) but when I wrote 2 weeks ago about not eating cake as I was trying to lose weight and joked that I did'nt want to have my stomach stapled.... Prophetic words indeed as 2 days after writing that I was rushed to hospital with a burst appendix. I was cut open and had the appendix removed and had my tummy stapled (stainless steel staples) which were removed this Friday. It's what they do now and there's less scaring than the old way and because I was'nt allowed/able to eat for a few days and after that only light meals, I've lost weight!.

Happy new year - let's hope the housing situation gets slightly better for us next year.

Ouch! Bet that didn't make for a very happy Christmas! Hope you got lots of tea and sympathy from friends and family (but no cake...) Must have been major if they had to cut you open - thought they did things telescopically (?) nowadays. But hurrah for losing weight (albeit in a rather drastic way!) Hope you are fully mended now, and that the N&N looked after you.

Yes - median is middle of the earners - supposed to be a better way of judging things (slightly lower result, as it takes into consideration that there are more low earners...) So I expect the average wage is about where you put it - however, as amazing as the internet is, it wouldn't tell me the average - you're right the ONS page is truly pants!

Your 3.5x average wage + 10% makes a terraced house about £85-86K ish - do you think it will drop that far? I think all those new build flats will start to have problems soon - the lettings pages today has the usual oddities - you can get a 2 bed apartment to let unfurnished in the Chapelfield East development for £750pcm, or you can have a 4 bed detached house on Colman Rd for the same price. I guess its been like that for a while, but if you're renting because you can't afford to buy, you can't really afford the rent on a new build (if the LL is going to make anything out of it)

I didn't really fully twig how bad things were last time round - I remember looking through the housing pages and thinking things were REALLY cheap, and not really understanding why people were struggling when houses were that price - but I was too young to have had the full picture of the boom first... People don't think twice about checking the price out for an MP3 player, but I think its only in the last year that you could find out how much someone paid for the house you're about to buy (I love nethouseprices - I'm so nosey!) unless you stumble upon a site like this, chances are, you've no reason to doubt the VIs, and with pressure from those around I think it's easy to "fall" into buying a house.

However, I too am "waiting and saving" (although the investing bit is something I am far too behind on!), and hope that the New Year brings us (and all those taking a sneaky peek but not adding to the local housing debate - with 736 views I'm sure it's not really just you and me here!) some good news in the housing stakes

Yes I did hurt quite a lot - first time I've been given Morphine and had some weird dreams!. They did try keyhole but as it had burst, like I thought it had, they needed to do it the usual way and remove all the mess. I'm not fully mended as I can't lift for 6 weeks (would have been a lot less if keyhole was possible) and need lots of rest - hopefully another full week off work then p/t for the first 2 weeks back working just afternoons. Come February I should be completely fit again although the leftovers of cake and chocolate is proving impossible to resist at the moment.

N&N was unfortunately not a good experience - bed shortages due to the fact that they are £50 million overspent and tied to a crippling PFI agreement. I was kicked out less than 48 hours after having the operation when the Consultant said I would be in for 4-5 days - basically they wanted my bed. Initially I was put in one of the closed wards when I first went in whilst a bed 'became' available - lights all turned off and row upon row of empty beds to try and save money. Morale amongst nurses looked lower and many seemed stressed and were understaffed - I thought those days had gone. Food was appalling - the cheapest muck possible. Staff rarely using the gels or wash basins between seeing patients (this stops superbugs like MRSA or PVL in babies) as they don't have the time - toilets often became a mess. A real shame and the cuts won't really make a dent in the £50M and the interest on this will be far far more.

Back to houses

EDP Homes24 supplement today (Friday) is a truely massive 104 pages and Estate Agents are still apparently saying that there is a shortage of property - really?

Do I think the price for a terrace house will drop to 3.5x average wage?. Yes and possibly lower (3.0x) at the very bottom. History usually rhymes even if it does'nt copy what happened in the past. Have a look at the 'House Price/Earnings Ratio' graph on Housepricecrash. The long-term average is 3.5 (what building societies normally lend) and the UK average is nearer 6 although some areas (up North for example) may be lower and other areas (like Norwich) will be higher. If we assume average wage here is something like £21.5k then £153K is still 7 times and above average. We've gone higher this time around due to lower interest rates making mortgage payments more affordable - the House price/earnings ratio at the peak of the last crash was lower but interest rates were far higher.

If interest rates are still relatively low (5 to 8%) in a few years time then the hosue price/earnings ratio may not hit and dip below 3.0x like it did around '94 to '96. Even so, I do expect it hit 3.5x as it has always done so in the past. So in inflation adjusted terms that would would mean a peak to trough fall of 50% which is what happened last time. Because inflation is so low then the nominal (not adjusted for inflation) figures will look really bad too and this is what people see - in the past higher inflation has to varying degrees cushioned the falls. With the Bank of England now targeting inflation at 2% there will be no cushion and no soft landing (in my opinion of course!)

With regards to people asking £750pcm for an unfurnished 2 bedroom flat (oops, I should say apartment!) I would simply offer £600pcm if I was interested. How anyone can 'afford' to have these places empty whilst paying a mortgage is beyond me - Landlords will realise that it's better to lose £150/month than £750/month although no one likes losing money. A lot of these off-plan apartments in the UK have already lost 25 to 30% of their price as a result of being overvalued in the first place. Might be worth checking out some of the Riverside apartments on Nethouseprices to see how they have faired - only if you are nosey of course

I'm sure there must be other 'lurkers' on here from Norwich/Norfolk - HELLO!!!!. Don't be shy now - feel free to join in as this is'nt a private conversation and we would like your views/input.

Keep waiting and keep saving - our time will come.

This was Wednesday's front page story on the Evening News:How Norwich is heading flat out for trouble

Thursdays property section was a "bumper" 60 pages (it is usually 48 or 52 pages), including the usual "News" from TOPS chap - as SamandDave mentioned here. Although I have to say, it bears a striking resemblance to what they wrote this time last year (all about making the house look welcoming, etc in the depths of winter). The property section also included the Abbots January sale, and one house proudly bearing "under stamp duty!" on a house priced at 234K...

Last year I started a spread sheet with houses that I liked the look of, that I'd consider if they weren't so dear, with the intention of keeping a track of them, and see how long it took for them to sell - it was a nightmare, as I found it difficult to keep track of the houses (listed with different agents, taken off rightmove, on with a different website, etc) so found it a difficult exercise to carry out (but I thought it would give me an idea of what was happening in the section of the housing market I was interested in - it's all very sad muppet I know, but...) so instead, this year I have a (simpler) new plan! I've gone through and tallied up some results from the property section. I figure I can do this once a month ish, and it not take up too much of my time, and give me an overall view. I've gone for Total Number of properties, Less than 120K, 120K -250K, New on, No chain, New Price, Surprisingly reavailable , POA .

This weeks results...

Total properties: 850
Less than 120K: 48 (this includes that person's back garden for sale)
120-250K: 602
New on: 180
No chain: 116
New Price: 35
Surprisingly reavailable: 5
POA: 3

I've considered moving up the 120K to 130K, as there are quite a few just over the 120K price; the POAs in this week weren't grand affairs that only the supremely (over) loaded could afford, more on the market at probably 180ish, I was also surprised at how many are chain free - and not all flats, etc as you'd expect if it was BTLers selling up (although I spotted a few brand new flats for sale at below what you would expect - which, I guess could be BTL giving up as they can't find anyone to move in) 26 of the no chain properties were with TOPS - do they take distressed sales, and if they can't sell them, then auction them?

If things are going tits up, then I'd see an increase in no chains, and surprisingly reavailables, if things are peachy, then there shouldn't be any need for too many new price markers, as they'll be selling like hot cakes? Have I missed anything?

As for the N&N - sorry to hear that it was pants - you hear lots of things, but you never know how disastrous it all is until you go - I had a trip there 18 months ago, and was incredibly lucky as I landed a side room - so shared scubby loos etc weren't an issue. However the food was pants, and they couldn't/wouldn't even stretch to a cup of tea for Mr W&S - he stayed with me the whole time (slept in armchair for 2 nights) and did everything for me - saving a lot of time and effort on nurses/HCAs parts. It was only a few weeks after leaving that I realised although I'd had the bins emptied every day, I hadn't actually seen a cleaner in the room... I knew they'd closed wards (some for "redecoration", some as they supposedly didn't need the beds) but didn't realise they still put people in there - did any staff come and look in on you? AS for the NHS budgets, etc, don't get me started on the local PCT - grrrr!

And those Chapelfield flats? I'm not tempted - currently in a 3 bed detached with a garage and driveway in a nice area for about the same as your suggested offer to them - and far enough away from The Waffle House for it not to be a financial burden!

Waiting and saving seems more and more wise with every rate rise - so long as the banks pass it on!

Norwich does seem to be suffering like all other major cities in having too many flats built - while I like the idea of old historical buildings being preserved in this way I think there are far too many new builds built with investors in mind that will age really badly over the coming decades. Some could end up being run-down areas blighted by crime and used for social housing like the 60's tower blocks as the average person who can afford to buy won't want to live there. More townhouses would be a better idea and some of these could be split into flats that still looked liked houses.

Fridays property supplement was a whopping 112 pages - from memory that's the highest it's ever been. With the interest rate rise last week and the two we had before xmas, this means the cost of servicing an Interest Only mortgage has risen by 16.7% in just 5 months - the money markets have also priced in a further 2 rate rises now so we should be seeing 5.75% by summer. I don't see any chance of interest rates being cut in the future either - sterling will fall in the medium term which will cause imorted goods/oil to become more expensive which is inflationary. CPI inflation is as you know probably out of the Bank of Englands target of 1 to 3% (hence the shock move last Thursday) and rising with the M4 broad money supply (money being lent out) still at record levels (this too is inflationary). The important RPI inflation measure, used in pay settlements and for pensions/benefits, has almost certainly gone over 4% and January is often when pay negotiations take place!.... so more people will be seeking inflation busting pay rises. Now is definitely not the time to be the holder of a large mortgage unless you've managed a good fixed rate for at least 10 years I would think.

Your results are quite interesting though and is something I've noticed but not quantified. There is very little under £120/£130 apart from overpriced flats - terrace houses don't feature much, although Norwich has thousands of them - I suspect it's because so many have been snapped-up as BTL and the rest are owners unable/unwilling to trade up in the current market. Both my brother and sister have lived in their 2-bed Victorian terraces in Norwich for 15 and 17 years now with no sign of moving - in the past this would have been a shorter time, maybe max 10 years then onto a 3/4 bedroom house in your 30's. They are now early 40's. Because almost everyone is now hit by stamp duty when they move this too is having an effect and people are sometimes choosing to stay put and extend their home or have a loft conversion to get the extra space needed.

The other thing which your results showed is the percentage of chain-free properties at 13.6% - I think this must be a conservative estimate as many of the other properties advertised will also be chain-free. I would'nt be surprised to see this number at 16 to 18%. The other thing too is that you are using rightmove for your study and yet so many of the properties in the EDP supplement never appear on rightmove - I could go and count all 112 pages of Friday's supplement to see how many individual propeties were for sale, but that would be really sad muppet . The other thing is that you've got all the newbuild homes to take into account but there's no figure for these unless you phoned up each developer!. But I think using the rightmove website, as others on HPC have done is the easiest way to get an idea of what is going on though - maybe you should split the £120 to £250K bracket into £120K to x and x to £250 so the FTB'er houses (2/3 bedroom terrace) are separate from the 4+ bedroom bigger houses..... just a though

But the point is this - there must be literally hundreds of empty properties in and around Norwich so there can't really be a shortage of housing. The fundamentals of supply and demand has long been thrown out of the window - it is speculation that has driven the market to these highs and underpinning the market still. Once the speculators start panicking then there will be greater movements than we are seeing at the moment - so far those rate rises hav'nt worked through into peoples pockets, but give it a few more months and some more rises and there will be some very desperate people out there. With regards to TOPS, it's quite possible that they take properties from distressed sellers or people looking to get out quick. Many people who got into multiple BTL a few years ago and have been doing it a while can probably see the writing on the wall and will be wanting to consolidate their gains or reduce their exposure to any downturn by selling part of their portfolio - apparently at least 1/3 of all properties at auction are currently ex-BTL.

Should have realised about the N&N - remember what a friend told me about when his wife was in there after motorcycle accident. Won't go into all the details but I remember him telling me about how bad the care was and she ended up catching MRSA. The closed ward - I think I was only in there an hour or two whilst my bed became available but I was looked after. Your house sounds like good value - a 3 bedroom detached house with garage and driveway must be currently worth (wrong word to use really!) somewhere around the £200K mark in a nice area, I guess your landlord is probably losing money given the extra costs involved with being a landlord compared to what return they could get elsewhere.

We are doing the right thing - owning a house is becoming even more expensive but when it becomes cheaper that renting I will buy, in the meantime I will keep building the deposit and enjoy a higher rate on my savings

hello

can I join you?

We nearly bought in Norwich mid 2005 - 2 bed terrace Golden Triangle £135k. Got made redundant and now live abroad but still want to come back to Norwich. Had a look at houses at the beginning of the new year and most GT terraces on at £155k +, we'd seen quite a few we were interested in viewing only to find they had all been snapped up and there was literally nothing similar on the market. Not sure how that fits in with your experiences? I know GT is desirable area, so maybe it won't be affected by slowdown elsewhere in Norwich?

Just a quickie

Hello Saffron! Of course you can join us! The more the merrier! I've been wondering about the Golden Triangle, and whether they have any competition from other areas in Norwich. I'm not sure that they do, apart from the fact that a lot of students let houses in the area. I read in the news early December (I think - time really does fly...) that the UEA were putting in applications for a new block comprising of teaching rooms, and 450 student rooms - that's 450 less student's in private housing - at 4 per house (3 upstairs and one in a converted front room?) that's at least 100 BTL student houses going spare Obviously its a long way off, but you can tell that the UEA would rather have the students rent money than let someone else at it... Its amazing how quickly houses sell on the streets by the UEA - around Bluebell Rd/The Avenues - they are invariably bought by BTLers - and students (4 to a house, most with a car each ) move in - the streets are empty over the summer/Christmas, then chock a block the rest of the year. Where abroad are you? Do the house prices (and cost of living) where you are make you think twice about coming back?

Catflap, I really am a sad muppet! It was only 60 pages, and less than that by the time you ignore the full page ads and "news" stories, but I did go through the local rag and tally the properties - I had tried keeping tabs of things with Rightmove, but lost patience with them (also, like you say a lot of the properties don't appear on Rightmove) - with the paper I can sit in front of the telly whilst going through them Am thinking about putting a split in at the 160K mark, but know it will be extra work...

Don't think our house would be on the market for quite 200K -more 180K ish I think- a house in the street was up for sale or rent last year - think it was sold, but not sure - am still waiting for nethouseprices to update (I might be nosey, but not so nosey as to find out any other way...!)

Mr W&Ss job situation changed last week. We are relieved and delighted not to have bought for even more reasons now... Had we bought, the mortgage would probably have been the cost of the rent at the moment plus most of the monthly savings at the moment, and we would have put all our savings into the deposit/stamp duty/ fees, etc, and had nothing to fall back on, with a hefty financial noose around our necks... Waiting and saving is right for so many more reasons than I could have thought of a week ago!

We are living in Croatia - cost of living is a fraction of what we forked out in UK - but I miss drinks after work with friends, curries and of course my family. On the positive side the coffee is great- and I suppose the view over the bay from the cafe terrace helps! House prices have boomed here too but rent is very reasonable. We are in a much better position than when we lived in the UK. We can actually save instead of getting into more and more debt. Not quite sure how that works as we earned above average salaries so we should have been laughing.....too many drinks after work?!

I've decided to do a weekly search on Rightmove (idea from another thread):
Norwich, 1/2 mile radius, £100 - £200k, excl SSTC - this week 56 pages

Let's see what happens over the next few weeks.

Welcome Saffron, sorry to you both for my late reply - got involved in a number of new debates and been researching house related stuff on here looking plus sorting my accounts out in time for 31st Jan

W&S - you're spot on about the UEA as I'm off Bluebell Road and can confirm the number of previously 3/4 bedroom houses that are student BTL properties. Bowthorpe has seen huge development too and there's an even higher proportion of BTL properties over there I think - I know a lot of the medical students that have got places over there. This will have an effect too:

http://education.guardian.co.uk/university...1993675,00.html


It will be interesting to see your findings from the property supplement as it should help back up our gut feelings. I often thought it would be really useful to log how many pages there were in the property supplements each week but for that to work you would have to go back a few years. I do remember though a few years ago (was it 2003 we got 25% rise in 1 year?) just how thin the supplement was - no more than 20 pages or so. Property was shooting up and the terrace houses were going the day the Estate Agents had them on their books - you had to really quick as it was a sellers market. Last Fridays supplement has again broken a record - 116 pages .... and tops clearly had ex-rental property in Thorpe Marriot as there were two 3-bedroom properties next to each other (32+34). The reason I said ex-rental and not BTL as due to the age of the properties this might be a seasoned landlord off-loading to preserve gains and not a BTL who has bought in the last 3 years.

The amateur BTL brigade have little understanding of yields compared other investments like 10 year gilts (the best comparison as it is a risk free return) - the Risk Premium to reflect the higher risk of property means there should be a positive differential of at least 2% over gilts (government bonds) but if you look at this article from last week you will see just how low yields have gone. Basically, there is no premium for taking the extra risk - so why are people?.... becasuse of specualtion that property will rise further. That's crazy - the fundamentals are no longer there!!

http://www.citywire.co.uk/News/NewsArticle...&NewsPage=1



Good to see that you put a split - I was'nt sure what to say but £160K looks about right, hope it's not too much work!. Sorry to hear about your partner's job situation and hope it's only temporary - the last thing you want with a big mortgage is no leeway in case your job situation changes or you suddenly become ill (like I did).

Almost forgot to say - in the property supplement there were a number of new properties listed and some of these were at more realistic prices. Queens Rd. terraces refurbished by a buider £130/135K. Saw a 3-bed terrace with garage (Cotessey) for £125K and some 'new on' larger properties at £165/£175K that looked cheap when compared to the 1/2 bedroom flats that have been advertised or stuck on rightmove week after week after week. Don't forget - current market prices are determined by the most recent house sales and current market conditions, not what a property sold for in 2006 before the rate rises!

----

The Golden Triangle will always be a sort after location for many due to the unique charm of Victorian houses and a vast amount of popular/trendy pubs within easy walking distance!. I have always wanted to have my own terrace somewhere there but parking is often a pain (wether you have a car or not.... I don't) and ideally I would like a garage for bikes/motorbike so might have to rethink what it is I want to find out what areas have that. If there is a crash then good areas like the GT will always fair better than undesirable areas - a case of 'always buy the worst house in the best area rather than the best house in the worst area' as a poor house can be improved and renovated but you can't renovate a whole estate....

Croatia would be too far for me - if I move abroad it will be to France as I already have contacts there and love the food/culture not forgetting much cheaper house prices like where you are. Sounds like you did a very positive thing and I'm sure it's a lot easier to reflect on all the perverted property madness that's gripped the UK - so many people get caught up in the whole frenzy of owning property here and there's also the pressure from other people close to you to buy.

Sounds like you are by now a little home sick and who could blame you - it's not easy to leave friends and family behind and the things that are familiar to you. For all it's faults there are a lot of things I would miss about the UK if I ever emmigrated, but if it's only to France then that should'nt be too much of a problem as I won't be too far away. It seems like things could work out really well for you Saffron if your current house continues to rise in value whilst property here takes a fall - you could end up with just a small mortgage back in Norwich and hopefully a life free of debt which is what we all want. The only problem with moving back is the high tax burden now (higher than Germany for the first time in a generation) which is continuing to rise.... another reason why houses prices will come down. This country is in so much debt!

Let's see how many pages we get this Friday

Hello

hope you are both well? I've been on Rightmove again and number of properties has gone up to 573 which is 22 higher than this time last week. Unfortunately that doesn't seem like a rush to sell to me, but maybe we'll see more on in the coming days ...I'll look forward to news on the EDP property section this week W&S, thank you for doing that. I think I know the Queens Road terraces you are talking about Catflap, if so they have been on the market for quite some time - I started looking at Rightmove in November last year and I'm sure they were around then.

Er.. sorry to have misled you but I haven't bought in Croatia. A friend bought an apartment 2 years ago (for cash) but still doesn't have possession of the deeds, which is a bit of a worry. Also foreigners buying here can't sell up for 3 years!

We work on boats so are moving around quite alot. Like you I am quite keen on the idea of living in France, I lived in Toulouse for a year and have very fond memories - and it would make sense for us to be based in Cannes or Antibes work wise - although properties there are really expensive, somehow it seems worth it given the location.

Anyway look forward to hearing from you both, some of the posters on the other threads are really rude to eachother which puts me off joining in!

Hello to you both!

Have done another tally (I do the Norwich Evening News listings, not the EDP...) It's a hefty 60 pages today:

Total properties: 974
Up to £120K: 38
120K - 160K:174
160K-250K: 513
New Properties:239
No Chain:134
New Price:30
POA:5
Surprisingly reavailable:1

I should mention that a couple of the under 120Ks are land for building, and also include that bargain of a potential studio flat - that garage for £19,500. Think the 160K split is about right, of course it'll all go out the window to a certain extent if the Stamp duty bandings are changed in the next budget! (I remember a time only a few years ago when there was a massive glut of houses at the 250k mark - even that's gone now )

So about the same proportion of no chain properties as last time, too early to make any sweeping conclusions. The no chain properties still aren't all flats or anything, and overall very few new build flats (those down by Carrow Rd, etc) are listed at all. This still surprises me, and I can't figure that one out! My only theory is that a large portion of them haven't been "released for sale" yet - I've seen this with the Chapelfield Development - going past the offices for the development next to M&S, every now and then they put up signs saying a further x have been released for sale... Chapelfield opened 18 months ago, so I'm a bit dubious about their housing claims... (although admittedly there are also lots of builders wandering around when I go to the car park there).

Saffron - sounds like you've got a nice job! I have a friend who is moving to Croatia - seems like a reasonable idea for him - he too, spends too much time (and hence money!) on drinks after work, and I think the financial situation is a big motivator for him leaving. We keep thinking about Canada, but it's too far away in reality - when you've made a conscious effort to move back towards family, to move halfway round the world, just because the grass seems greener, is probably the wrong choice for us! Germany would be the other option, but I think it would be a lot of hassle!

As for those on other threads - generally I think they just bark a lot, but they can't bite! It took me a long time to post as I was far too scared - I'd seen other people get shot down for a perfectly innocent question, and am still shy in the main forum - but what's the worst they can do? I think a lot of people that act like that on the forum wouldn't dream of saying any of it if you were havvnig a discussion face to face!

Catflap - How's the appendix (or rather the empty spot where it once was...)? Hope you are much more on the mend, and getting back to normal. The EAs keep leafleting round Bluebell Rd/North Park Avenue way - investor buyers with 160K to spend was the last one I saw, which seemed a bit generous to me... I don't know much about Bowthorpe, but I'm sure you're right - we looked at a few houses there a couple of yrs ago (to let) the newer ones seemed so small (I remember one, they had a normal sized double bed in the largest room, and you could barely move around it ) and the older ones were a good size, and there was plenty of green spaces, but it all looked a bit run down and depressing (maybe its beautiful on a summer's day...) - so we decided against the area. However, it did seem that most of the newer houses were going to (younger) Drs, and the older ones going to Med Student lets - the proximity to UEA and NNUH makes it perfect for them.

Interesting about the 10 yr gilts, and an important indicator to the state of play! Although presumably you are locked in for 10 yrs? Admittedly, you should consider a BTL as having your money locked up for 10+ yrs too, but there is always the get your cash out option - and maybe that's why 10yr gilts are a less tempting (and less publicized - it doesn't make for a thrilling TV series!) option to the new BTL breed?

As for hubby's work - I'm quite sure it will work out for the best in the end - it never feels like it at the time, but we can see the benefits of it all happening in the way it has, and it is an opportunity for him to take his career down a slightly different track, hopefully the opportunities are there, we will have to wait and see over the next few weeks if the time is right!

Did I say something to offend?!

Tallying house prices is keeping me from doing other (more productive) things... and so here is the 1st of February tally:

The supplement was 60 pages in total (but there were 2 pages of Gorleston properties in this weeks, and I haven't counted them in the below)
There was one shared equity house (£66K) in bowthorpe, and I've added a new category - Incentives available, as I can imagine that if things do slowly go down the pan, then this could be something that could become more common (I'll include stamp duty paid in this category too now). It didn't feel like there were many no chain properties this time - but the results prove me wrong! I'm quite sure many more of the properties are no chain (this is the one thing I scan the details for), but they don't put it in the advert.

There are a couple of the riverside (the ones built by the cinema, etc) apartments up for sale - one of which I noticed was on for about £158K - which seems a bit cheaper than I've noticed for them previously. Also some new builds at Earlham Green Lane are advertised in the rag six 3/4 bed houses and two 2 bed flats priced from £137K - £160K - I'm guessing they're probably small, but a new build 3/4 bed house for £160k is the direction I like to see prices going in!

Total properties:862
Up to £120K:31 (3.6%)
£120K - £160K:158 (18.3%)
£160K-£250K:448 (52%)
New Properties:238 (27.6%)
No Chain:136 (15.8%)
New Price:36 (4.2%)
POA:0
Surprisingly Reavailable: 6 (0.7%)
Incentives available:1

I've realised I should have put the percentages beside the other ones, but I can't seem to go back in and edit them now, so below are the other 2 tallies I've done, with %'s, so its easier to keep track:

25th Jan:
Total properties: 974
Up to £120K: 38 (3.9%)
120K - 160K:174 (17.9%)
160K-250K: 513 (52.7%)
New Properties:239 (24.5%)
No Chain:134 (13.8%)
New Price:30 (3.1%)
POA:5
Surprisingly reavailable:1

11th Jan:
Total properties: 850
Less than 120K: 48 (this includes that person's back garden for sale) (5.6%)
120-250K: 602 (70.8% - fairly irrelevant tho')
New on: 180 (21.2%)
No chain: 116 (13.6%)
New Price: 35 (4.1%)
Surprisingly reavailable: 5
POA: 3

On another note, I read today that they are having a golden triangle farmers market on Sunday, and there is an artisan German/Swiss baker stall going to be there... I keep my hopes up for some cakes as well as a bit of German style bread...

Hope you are both well, and that Catflap, you are getting back into the swing of things with full time work again.

Sorry W&S - got sidetracked

Yep, back to work and feeling loads better thanks.

Property supplement last Friday was 108 pages and the week before was about the same - remember 6 months or so ago when it was usually around 88 pages and this shows the market stagnating even further no doubt because of the recent rate rises. FTB'ers can't step in and support the market at these prices and FTB'ers are needed to form the chain at the very bottom - they are the lifeblood on which a healthy housing market depends.

Sometimes it seems that everyone you meet is going into property developement or BTL - had a young lad come into my shop last week looking for work. His mum and dad have just split up and he has moved with his dad who has bought a house near me. I know the person who owned it and he's been trying to sell it for almost a year after it fell through last easter. It's a 3 bedroom detatched house needed some improvement and he was originally asking £170K for it and holding out for this as he knew property was going up - I don't know what it went for (will find out soon enough) but the lad told me him and his dad were going to 'do it up' whilst living there and sell it in a years time (presumably for a profit!?...). Makes you wonder, people just seem to think property will keep going up forever even at this level with the market stagnant and economic outlook uncertain.

Good work with your analysis - new properties have increased as have chain free even in that short space of time. I do wonder just how many more of the properties are chain free as well but it's not indicated in the advert - it could possibly be 1 in 5 properties for sale and I think your percentages could be applied to the 108 pages of the EDP supplement or the rightmove figures. The one to watch is 'under £120k' as this should very gradually get bigger in my opinion over the year - more older flats through distressed selling should come onto the market and a few north city terraces could start to creep in there towards the end of the year after some more rate rises.

Saffron - probably did'nt mislead me as I just read it wrong . Cannes?... did'nt seem so expensive when I was there in 2005. I would love to live in Provence or anywhere in France for that matter and if things don't get any better then I might just go for it.


This will make you both chuckle

Just appeared on Rightmove an 'apartment' that's obviously the little extension someone has had tacked onto the side of their house.... communal gardens meaning you can walk into their back garden if you like

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-144...=1&tr_t=buy

or for another £2K you could buy this in France:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-137...p;chnl=overseas

or this in Paris:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-816...p;chnl=overseas

__________

For Saffron

Cannes:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-142...p;chnl=overseas


or this 'Executive second floor apartment' in Norwich for £10K more....also 1 bedroom btw

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-529...=2&tr_t=buy

OR!!!!

how about a tasty mobile home in King's Lynn for the same price as the flat in Cannes!

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-585...=1&tr_t=buy


.... I'm not tempting you am I


I wish this property bubble would hurry up and burst.

Great article here from Norwich Evening News 24: House Price Boom Traps Young Buyers

http://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/search/stor...Category=search



Finally found what looks like an accurate figure for the average wage in Norwich. Sentiment is turning and people are definitely talking about a housing crash more and more.

Glad you're feeling better! I see you've been busy in other discussion areas! Made me think about USD... we are off on a well earned holiday soon, and am wondering if your post would also help us with organising holiday finances

And as for that apartment that someone had tacked on the side of their house! There is a tree house on the posh end of Unthank Rd that is bigger than that!! When you look at the size of the door and windows in comparison to the proper house next door! WOW... There was a programme on about primordial dwarves last week - I suspect it may be a tad on the small side for one of them

Thanks for the link - I'd seen it in the paper, but hadn't paid full attention to it - I knew the local average wage was low, but ...!

The couple in the article sound like they are having a tough time of it already - Their house cost them £117,500 - on repayment thats £695/month (at 5% IR), or IO (which is probably more likely if they haven't mustered up a deposit or anything...) £489/month - which aren't huge sums of money (although the repayment figure is more than my rent ) If there are 2 of you on an average wage (it doesn't say what they do), then thats about a third of your joint take home? And that's for a relatively cheap house - I dread to think how tight other people must be taking their finances on more expensive properties... I think articles like this will appear more and more in the paper - there was another one last week about how people in the city were cutting back on spending on treats for themselves.

So the tally for yesterdays paper (60 pages again) are as follows (I'll get bored of it all soon, and my results postings will get more sporadic I think!)

Total Properties:993
Less than 120K:38 (3.8%)
120K - 160K:179 (18%)
160K - 250K:516 (52%)
New on:241 (24.3%)
New price:52 (5.2%)
No chain:152 (15.3%)
Reavailable:4
POA:3
Incentives available:3

I'm watching for a general increase in the proportion of properties under 250K, and hope to see the 120-160k bracket holding 52% of the properties rather than the 160-250K bracket! If it gets to a point where there's about 25% under 120K, 50% 120-160, and 25% 160 plus, then I'd say that was probably pretty good going!! (although I know that even then we're still talking about more salary multiples than is healthy)Eventually all those flashy over priced new builds will come back on the market, and when that happens they'll be compared with other properties for sale in the area, and if a 3 bed terraced house is on for 150K, then a 2 bed flat a few hundred yards away can't really be on for any more than that can it?

I got a call from our Letting agents this week - the landlord wants to have a surveyor come round to value the place - I asked if he was going to sell - she assured me he wasn't, he just wanted to invest in some more BTL. I thought our LL was a small time guy who'd bought just this one as a nice little earner - obviously I'm wrong, or I was right up till now, and he can't resist the thought of some more - it's surprised me, and wonder if he'll be surprised at the cost of mortgages now in comparison to what he's paying out for this one? I am slightly nervous about this development, and will wait with slightly baited breath till I know exactly what is happening...

I hope the lad that came into your shop and his dad got a bargain for the house - maybe if it hadn't sold the seller caved in for a low offer? Do you have a local shop (will they be people that pop in)? Are you going to keep track of their saga?

I too am hoping it'll hurry up and burst, and am wondering if the EAs are getting a bit too antsy about HIPs - The Norwich Evening News property supplement has "Log on to vote against HIPS" as their front page headline, they repeat the whole article and add a little bit again on page 8, and the TOPS state of the market news page, is "Sell Now Experts Advise" - saying its been a busy start to the year, that the mild weather has helped, how HIPs could have a negative effect on the market, and media portrayal of HIPs will also have a lot of influence, and if you want to sell, don't wait - get it done before the summer. They say if you're a buyer, then 1) if you're a FTB, you can wait a bit - they expect the market to rise in line with inflation 2) if you're moving up the ladder, then get on with it... I hope the HIPs stuff finally goes through - there have been so many delays, and from what I've read, the last time around it was MIRAS tax relief ending that got the crash going - maybe HIPs could be a similar nudge, here's hoping!

They would say that wouldn't they!
I know (for a fact) that lettings agents advise this to their clients who are thinking of selling.
So either you'll be moving soon - or getting a new landlord (who may well be keen on buying a property that's actually got a tenant in it).

Thanks for that Redwing! I had wondered, and its glad to have suspicions confirmed... I figured I'd find out soon enough, as there would inevitably be a for sale sign turn up!

I do think (and hope!) it unlikely he would sell this one though - he bought it several years ago, and the rent should still (just!) cover the mortgage (although I think it's a fine line - do you know how much letting agents tend to cream off for their "services"?) - I think this area is sound investment territory, but that he also bought at the right time - if someone bought this house from him at current market value, they wouldn't get their mortgage covered by the rent... He could of course, be getting out while he's ahead.

If he sells up, then it won't be the end of the world - if you've read previous posts we're in a state of flux at the moment, and if we have to move out, it would be beneficial to us to know this sooner rather than later, as it may affect other choices!

I will be asking lots of questions to the Surveyor, and seeing whether I can wheedle any answers out of him! Thanks again for the tip off

Sorry to hear about your situation W&S - I can't offer much advice on that front but it would certianly be worth starting a new topic on 'All about Renting' or even the main discussion forum (where you should get a lot more replies) if you can put up with any stupid comments you might get!.... there's plenty of really experienced people on here as you know who can offer guidance and a good idea what he may be up to, as Redwing has already pointed out.

That 'appartment' made me laught though - even someone in Nowich on the average wage of £19,796 taking out 3.5x salary mortgage would have to have a deposit of £27,214K!!

Even with a 5% deposit you would have to be earning over £26K a year

I might go and check it out sometime if I remember - it's possible that it's a long garage that was converted by adding the extra bit on the front by about a foot to give the impression of it being wider. It could be that someone used to run their business from here as my accountant works from his former garage (extended to the rear and with a sloping roof added to give loft storage space). Whatever though, it must be small and narrow and only extend the length of the side of the house - oh, and check out the bath will you!.... looks rather narrow to me and you might get stuck if your slightly overweight

I did watch the first half of the programme about primordial dwarves last week - you could be right!.

If you've got the time and don't mind the boredom of it all then keep doing the EEN property ananlysis, at least until you can see a pattern emerging then perhaps do it just fortnightly - would it be quicker an easier if you read it out whilst Mr W&S made a tally?..... I think you could do it easily under 1 hour but it's a lot harder having to stop and look. It's the same when I do a stocktake, I get someone to help me and it's far quicker with one person reading the figures out and another writing them down. The reason I say this is because already the figures look consistent and a pattern might start to develope - once you suspect this then it might be better to reduce the sample rate to twice a month then eventually once a month if a clear pattern is emerging.

It's interesting that such a small percentage of properties are under the £120k bracket but that must get bigger as time goes on - another rate rise or two plus the Home Information Packs (HIP's) becoming a requirement to sell a property in June this year, will put further downward pressure on the market. Estate Agents like Norwich's Christopher Hall are already bleeting about this again 'in the light of the potential of a distastrous effect the scheme could have on the housing market and the wider economy'.... this is the man who said he could see house prices doubling a while back . He is urging homeowners to vote against HIPs by adding to an on-line petition set up by, you've guessed it, the National Association Of Estate Agents. This was in Fridays whopping 112 page supplement.

Regarding newbuild appartments - I don't see why people would ever want to touch them. Overpriced to begin with, ofter come with lots of problems and when you hear people saying they can hear when their neighbour coughs and f**ts because the walls are so thin. If you look at a users recent thread about apartments in Brighton you probably would'nt want to go near one after his experience!.... in case you did'nt see it:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=41801

The guy who's dad bought the house near my shop - I'll have look from time to time and if I see him I might ask a few questions but won't mention anything about a possible housing crash as they would obviously not like it. I think they will find out in their own time and in their own way, the hard way - why so many people (sheeple) are still prepared to jump into the 'property developer' career bandwagon when the average house in Norwich is almost 8 times the average wage is because they see prices going higher still. By the way, the house in question is probably a typical average house being 3 bedroom with garage and smallish garden.

One thing I'm not sure about is how the Evening News got an average house price for Norwich of £153,227 because if you look at the BBC site it gives a totally different figure of £165,168 which is nearly £12K difference. If you used the BBC figures for the average house prices along with the Evening News figures for average wages then the average house is 8.34 times the average salary in Norwich!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...s/html/33ug.stm

3.5 times the average salary should buy the average house (except in certain holiday resorts or much more desirable areas maybe). In a crash prices have always returned to the 3.5 times multiple or even dipped below so even if this house only returns to 4 times average earnings as it's in a more desirable area - chances are it will still crash heavily. Assuming 3% wage inflation for the next 5 years then by 2012 (five years after the peak like in 1995 which was the trough) the average wage might be something like £22,949.... that would make this house worth £22,949 x 4 multiple = £91,795. That would be a huge drop.

Have a look at this graph done by Bandwagon some time ago for UK average prices/earnings multiple:

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...ost&id=2408

The graph would obviously look different if it was for Norwich as the last peak would certainly be higher - in the last crash Norwich/Norfolk and East Anglia got hit hard. If average prices hit 3 times average salary like this again then the average house is going to be worth something like £68,847. It always returns to the mean of 3.5 or thereabouts - if prices go higher then they are more likely to undershoot the mean as in the last crash. A long post, but thought it might be useful as I've been on here a while and don't want to post meaningless stuff or just rant

Blimey, I only wrote this only last week!:



Plop!.... here's the first batch of north city terraces houses appearing, although 1 needs complete modernisation and the other 3 are probably ex-rental (either failed BTL or seasoned landlord offloading a few properties at the top of the market). Although 3 of the properties are for auction with guide prices, they are there all the same and we should hopefully expect to see a few more in the coming months that are either owner occupied or chain free (BTL's bailing out).


http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-142...=2&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-142...=2&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-140...=4&tr_t=buy

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-142...=4&tr_t=buy


For me at least, the traditional Norwich terrace (of which we have many thousands) represents a good benchmark as it is often the first type of property a FTB'er goes for when they want to be near the City - due to the normally plentiful supply. Unfortunately, it also became the favourite amongst the amateur BTL investors and property developers alike because of it's desirability which has pushed prices out of reach for nearly all young 20/30 somethings on moderate Norwich incomes, for now at least.

Using a £120K maximum price searching a 5 mile radius on rightmove.

Good spotting Catflap!!

We'll have to wait till March to see what they go for (I aim to be on holiday by then, so I trust you'll fill me in on the results when I get back!) It's the TOPS auction next week, and they post the results the week after - it's been a while since they had an auction, and the last one was disappointingly above asking price for most properties - so we'll get an indication of the state of play from that.

I think there are 2 main benchmarks - the traditional Victorian Terrace, and the 1950's post war council house - again they are plentiful, and popular (maybe not with FTBs, but with families for sure... and increasingly, with student lets ) Its encouraging to see terraces below £120k - I hope this is a long term trend I can pick up in my tallies!

I saw an old episode of relocation, relocation at the weekend - its not normally something I watch - I gave that up a long time ago - but I caught them saying that they had £190K to invest in the 2 houses - £130K for their main residence, and £60K for a BTL (he had lost all his money in stocks, never wanted to risk losing it all again, so thought he would go all out on BTL...) Obviously this was "up North", but I was amazed at what you could get for your money... In the end they settled for a lovely 3 bed semi with garden and parking (they could have had a beautiful period 4 bedder, but with no garden...) and they found them a house that they could let out to students for £60K....

So I take it all back! Having seen that, and knowing that wages here really aren't astounding (maybe a little higher than Hull and Manchester where the properties were) and that they could get a house for £122K that round here would probably cost £200K+, I revise the percentages of properties that I'm looking for in each of my tally bands - 40% should be below £120K, 35% 120K - 160K, 20% 160K - 250K, 5% 250K plus. The graph by Bandwagon is something I'd missed before, and very enlightening.

I'm currently reading "Rent Boy" by Pete May (How one man spent 20 years falling off the property ladder) - it's not dodgy - honest!! Each chapter is about each rented property, and at the end of each chapter is the average house price for greater London at that time - for someone who wasn't really old enough to know about the slump/crash last time around, it's interesting reading.

The surveyor came round (fortunately sans camera - otherwise I'd be complaining) and did his thing, he also repeated that it was to invest in more property, not to sell, but I won't hold my breath! I'm starting to wonder how responsible the surveyors have to be, and who they have to bear allegiance (!?!) to - the bank or the property owner - obviously it's in the banks best interest to overvalue the property, so that more money can be taken out on it, but it's probably in the house owners interests to get a real, sensible valuation on it, as it's their finances at stake... - The surveyor gave a rough guess at about £25k over what I thought the value of this property might be... I've been keeping track of the renting forum - fortunately someone else had a similar query a while back, so I'm keeping up to speed through that - thanks for the mention though (fortunately the renting forum is quite friendly too - it's just a few certain characters on the main forum who seem a bit cantankerous/downright rude...)

As for the miniature house/flat - that bath is narrower than the sink! I also suspect that Communal gardens front and rear mean that you can have a BBQ in the LLs garden if you're brave enough! And the tally - It takes me just over an hour - in front of the TV - I go through and tally each page, making scribbles at the bottom of each page (it amazes me that they can fit up to 40 properties on a page!), then put it on a spreadsheet to add it all up - so it's not tiresome, and quite quick for just little ol' me!

I saw Christopher Hall bleating too - Personally if its run well, I'm in favour of HIPs - if you put an offer in on a house, have to get it surveyed, then find a prob you're not willing to deal with, you've lost money upfront. I would have thought that anything that reduces cost for buyers is a good thing - I would have thought that BTLers would be for it - because it must save them a bit of time and money, and house buyers would be for it, as you have more information up front to make a more informed decision. So apart from the fact that you might be expected to put your house on the market for a more genuine and realistic figure, I really think its a positive move for all concerned (and surely better to say - X needs doing so we'll put the house on for £Y, than put the house on for £Y + a bit, and then have to renegotiate the price post survey?) But I'm starting to waffle, so I'd better finish!

snigger - there's one born every minute, and then there are recycled ones too!

Todays's EDP Property Supplement was 112 pages - I don't think we will see it go below 100 pages now for a very long time


There's 45 lots going to auction with TOPS next week:

http://www.tops-property.co.uk/auctionhous...ctions_new1.asp

past results here:

http://www.tops-property.co.uk/auctionhous...rchived_new.asp


Think you're right about the post war Council houses as well - well built in my opinion with proper solid walls upsatirs as well. I'm still not sure how things are going to pan out but the US has seen declines for some time now and NI is just having it's bubble popped it would seem - 2007 seems like 1989 again and is 18 years on if you believe in the 18 year business/property cycle. The 80's gave rise to the 'Yuppie' who was generally a London dealer type that drove a Porche 911 had the first mobile phones (the size of a brick!) and lot and lots of money - might typically of had a pad in the new Docklands as well. Eventually everyone got called a yuppie!.... but that was where it started in the UK. Just recently, we saw record City bonuses being paid out and I think this year will be the same again - the City is awash with money right now just like it was in the late 80' and if 2006 was 1988 then 2007 to me looks more and more like 1989 when the housing market finally peaked.

2008 could be 1990 again
2009 could be 1991 again
2010 could be 1992 again


It's strange - I know someone who lost a lot of money on the stockmarket and has built up quite a sizeable portfolio of commercial and residetial property but is I think quite exposed to most of the quite recent purchases, especially as they are Interest Only. Regarding the percentages you expect to see - you had a figure for 'median' wages for Norwich once which would have been lower than the average wage, so this confirms that for equilibrium to be restored then at least 40% should be in this bracket - possibly more!

Reading books is something I don't tend to do much, but I've decided to finally go and buy a book next week after having my thoughts prevoked again this week - it's called 'Boom & Bust' by Fred Harrison and is about the 18 year cycle - just this excellent bit published in Moneyweek after the book came out will give you an idea what it's about:

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/3075/housing-boom.html

Anecdotals are great if you were'nt around at the time, so your book should help to give you a better idea - this is the whole problem for anyone under a certain age though. Anyone in their 20's will be too young to have any personal experience of the last housing crash although I am just old enough to remember it .... a good thing is to ask anyone say between 40 and 60 and let them tell you what they remember. I came across this anecdotal today as it happens although it is nearly 3 years old so prices will have gone up more since:

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=8...&sort=whole



Which is why it's best to avoid flats as they crash even more than houses.... makes me wonder what the primordial aprtment will be worth in 5 years time?


Catflap

ps. where is the tree house on Unthank Road as I've not seen that!

Hi Catflap and W&S

wow! I haven't been online for a while (technical problem on yacht) so I had quite alot of catching up to do! Thanks for all the analysis you have both been doing - and also for the laughs Catflap - it's ridiculous when you compare what you can get in Norwich compared to Cannes! But if you go further inland to some of the mountain villages it's amazing what you can get for the same money - beautiful restored stone houses, 3 - 4 bedrooms - unbelievable.

Sorry to hear about your situation W&S - have a great holiday, you deserve it. I did have a look on rightmove the other day and the number of properties for sale in Norwich +1/2mile between 100 & 200k has gone up to 616 from a low of 539 on Friday 19 Jan. Alot of people on other threads on this forum rubbish the significance of increases in properties for sale on online - but personally I'd be pretty worried if it had gone down by as much! Still it's nowhere near as impressive or meaningful as the data you are pulling together. I remember headlines round Jan 2005 'Demand for North City terraces pushes prices past £120k' so it will be interesting if we see your under £120k band increase further over the coming months.

Take care both of you!

Saffron

112 pages in the EDP property supplement this Friday as well - 4 pages off their record if my memory serves me.

I also hear the local accountants are bust off loading these BTL's from one of my clients.

Hello all, and welcome Music Man (and Si1!) - I'd seen you'd posted that on the anecdotals - presumably the accountants have to deal with all the tax side of it? I could well imagine that if someone was offloading a large portfolio this could be a hefty undertaking, and over a long period of time if the properties took a while to sell?

Saffron - glad you're OK, and that normal service has resumed to the yacht! (I still think that its great (and an amazing technical feat!) that people can keep track of things from anywhere in the world at the click of a few buttons!) You're right - there would be people making a big thing of it if the rightmove stats were going in the other direction

Before I forget... re the tree house - in a car/on a bike turn off the Newmarket Rd onto the Unthank and going towards the city there's a big house on the right hand side (there are lots of big houses on the RHS but....) with a tree that overhangs the wall a bit - the tree house doesn't look as grand as I remember it, but its still there, and if you were a kid (or a primordial dwarf...) I imagine it would be a fab place to have a sleep over! There was a big broo haha in the paper about it a couple of yrs ago, as the council thought it should be taken down.

The evening news supplement was 60 pages again this week and I spotted several for below £100k which is a turn up for the books (admittedly nothing special or stunning but!) This week a lot of the adverts had "we've got the keys!" or keys available view now! - which if they are still there next week I think I'll assume are chain free for my tally? (I did the stats, but they're not worth posting, save for the number of houses with incentives available, which went up from 3 to 8, and, something I'm not keeping track of, but a definite increase in ads with Make an Offer! in them somewhere - suggesting that they're not selling fast, or that they're keen to sell quickly - if this was on the main forum I expect I would be accused of fiddling the results and not declaring them when they weren't favourable...)

The property supplement had the usual TOPS "news" and this week they are pleased to announce the introduction of "homefiles" - this looks like a precursor to HIPs, and they are making claims that it means they will get houses sold faster, etc - it's something of a stark contrast to the bleating in last weeks pages, I also remember a few weeks ago, TOPS announcing their new details brochures for all houses that they were selling - details here - I think that maybe they are one of the few EAs in the area that are ahead of the game, and prepared for this year - new brochures to make things look more appealing (together with a computer programme to post details out to people ASAP), and preparing for HIPs before it happens can only be a good thing at the moment - I wonder if their auction side of things gives them an indication to the state of the market before other EAs realise whats happening? The number going for auction this week seemed like a lot (to me), but is commensurate with this time last year - it could be another good marker for the state of play (and an easy one too!)

Anecdotally from the last time, I know of someone who bought at the top, and saw the value of the property reduce to a third of what they bought it for - almost overnight! They have come out of it just fine in the long run, (and actually recovered quite quickly in comparison to others, I imagine) but you could tell that it must have been distressing at the time. I'm not looking forward to seeing the hurt and upset that an HPC will cause, but, as you point out, it all comes round in cycles, and everyone will dust themselves off and recover in the end - I think it will hit everyone - even those who (like us) are trying to be sensible, and that for me is the hardest part - at the moment, you can max yourselves out to the eyeballs with debt, and take a get out of jail free card (an IVA or whatever), or you can play carefully and still get stuck paying the bill - life really is a big game of monopoly!

Catflap, thanks for the book tip off, think it might be something I got around to reading - it gets lots of mentions on the forum, and he seems to have something of a track record, which is a bonus! I am quite certain that history repeats itself because no one listens the first (or second) time around - and I can see the similarities to the late 80s early 90s in the yuppie days (I remember yuppie flu and things too, and remember watching Bergerac with the old boy with his brick of a phone!) but it seems the 18 year cycle runs for many other things - sadly in more ways than one - we went to the cinema last night, and I noticed a couple of things... firstly, the current fashions are really not that current (it was half term, and there were lots of kids looking like they were straight from 1989!) and secondly (with shock, and not a smattering of alarm at the thought of this lot again...!!) an advert for a new film coming out this year - yes, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles! The TV series was 1987, and the 1st film (I looked it up, as it all felt a bit too Deja Vu) was 1990. So in light hearted jest, and echoing so many threads from the main forum... When I see someone wearing fluorescent shoe laces, I will call the top...