House prices have jumped 48% in the last 12 months in the area where I live and there seems to be no stoppng the increase.
Out of curiosity I requested a valuation on my own house to be told by 3 estate agents that it wouldn't be done for a fortnight because they are so busy .

I'm not sure where I would get information on average house prices here. does any one have any links?

I am similarly interested. However finding the data is problematic. It isnt too hard to find numbers on asking prices which will indeed show some massive increases. BUT I can find almost nothing about actual selling prices. The tools the mainland guys use do not work for BT postcodes. Anecdotal evidence perhaps, but the best guide I am getting is from EA's when trying to enquire about properties - In my budget (140-180k), sale prices are as much as 60k above asking.

I am encouraged by your note about so many people getting valuations. I am hoping that the huge increases are going to prompt alot of people to be greedy and try and make money out of the boom. My logic is that if enough people do this, the market will flood and the demand at the low end will be insufficient to maintain the huge 'asking-selling' differential and we may return to some form of sanity. If not... my sums strongly support renting.

the best i can find is the bbc guide -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/in_d...ml/region11.stm

Thanks for the replies.
As an addendum I moved back to NI from the SE about 2 yrs ago and bought 5 months after returning.
Some of the houses I viewed then have come back on the market recently. I suspected the conditions were right for a hpc then and limited my budget to 140k some of the same properties at that price are now back on with asking prices of 190-200k. I also have a mate who is an estate agent and he tells me that most properties are going for between 5 & 15k over the asking price(he has no reason to lie). When I asked him what his honest opinion was he said at times he was as surprised as me at how much people are currently willing to pay but he felt the average mortgage was now well over 100k.

I think there are a number of points that are relevant to the NI market that we have not realised the effects of yet.

.most council properties are now in private hands and these were bought at very low prices which have fuelled rises over the last 4-5 yrs. There are very few of these left now and some are currently changing hands for betwen 80-130k.

.Water rates are coming.

.Rates increases are on the way with the new rating system, no matter what.

.There will definatley be job cuts in the public sector due to the amalgamation of health trusts and creation of the 7 'super' councils.

.well paid Security forces jobs are being phased out and there may well be job cuts in ancillary staff as army barracks are scaled back.

.FTB mortgages are now 80-140k, NI wages are historically lower than the rest of the UK, with IRs rising the true effect may not be seen for another 1-2 yrs when people start coming out of fixed deals(this also depends on how much IRs go up next year if it is 1%, as some analysts think, at best the market will cool and dip a little or...........we could see the start of a very serious price correction.

.Property market in Dublin finally seems to be slowing so the rest of the 26 counties should follow suit over coming months.

I don't want to seem to be a merchant of doom but things could go tits up in 2-3 yrs as the heavily subsidised public sector is reduced and there doesn't seem to be anything to replace it at present.

If anyone has a more optimistic outlook I would be very interested to hear it, at present I'm saving my cash until I see how things pan out early next year.

Which EA!? I cant find a property selling less than 20k over it's asking! Most of the properties are going for alot more!

where are you looking talksalot?

Belfast/Bangor... basically somewhere within reasonable commute of Belfast. We started our search at 180k (our budget) and have been down to 150k... not one of them has remained within budget

I'm on the other side of Belfast....co Antrim. Most estate agents will say to budget between 5-15k above asking price. I've also bid on a few properties, against my better judgement, and come close usually around the 10 k mark.

I havent looked out your way... I was put under the impression that Antrim was boom town right now so thought it would have been worse than here. Might take a better look.

Antrim is as you say 'allegedly' boomtown but there are still surrounding areas, if you don't mind living just out of 'civilisation', that are well within 40-45 mins drive to Belfast.
I think the market here is booming but could easily go the other way. Some ex council houses are on the market for as much as 130k most 'private' developments you are looking at 150-180k for a semi, 190-300k for detatched.
Personally I think it has gone boo-ga-loo with people 'panic' buying which could all end in tears.

Your best way to keep a track of the prices is to 'save' a search in PropertyNews.com and then have it emailed to you. Then you should haver a historical record of the 'asking' prices when properties go on the market. One example I saw was a very nice SD house on Balmoral Ave which was on the market @ £595k. I assume that it went for much more than that. but lets say it did not. It 'sold' and is now on the market as a rental property for £1,200 per month. That is roughly a 2.2% return on your money, so someone has great faith in the South Belfast market. In laymans terms they will be paying £35k per year in interest but only getting £14k in rental income. It should be very interesting indeed if it all goes titsup.com

That is a very nice example. If I had 600k, I certainly wouldnt be sticking it into a property like that. No doubt this is the sort of person who has seen the jump in £1mil props in that area!

I can manage to make up over 5% interest on my limited savings, even if you only managed half that on the large lump, it brings you in £15k pa. Thus basically the mentioned purchase would need to be growing at upwards of 35k pa in order not to be a net loss.

Thanks for the tip MMCA,

The story about S Bfast is interesting, the buyer is most certainly an optimist........or a fool!

An Excellent Synopsis - can't give you too much optimism apart from the small pop size here, so supply:demand ratios can either keep prices higher then necessary or with too much building...

but with regard to pop. size NI has the capacity to grow more than other UK Regions where immigration is concerned, but this is an emotive issue of course

PS - Your not T.Mc per chance?

[attachmentid=4166]Hello prophet-profit,

To quote the immortal words of Hong kong Fooey "Could Be":huh:

There's an interesting article on the news blog page "THEY KEEP GOING UP" indicates prices in NI dipped last month.....Is the worm turning?

I'm definately keeping my savings wrapped up for another six months to see how things pan out.

p.s see you on saturday morning!

The prices in NI haven't dropped at all... just the rate of increase from 26% to 23%. I suggest you re read the article more carefully.

It was late wishful thinking, I should pay more attention.

I'm still keeping my savings.

I see you are a "bull" I would be interested to hear why you think there is still growth left in the market.

Anecdotal evidence I realise, but as a mid 20's, reasonably good earner, my friends and colleagues have transformed from potential buyers a year ago into 'cant even be bothered looking' now... Then again this is a well educated group... the ones panicing may not be so.

Talksalot ,
I'm a little bit older than you and I'm just curious as to why your friends have stopped looking ... is it because prices are over inflated ?....lack of suitable property?....or they are just flying their kites?

It is because we cant realistically afford to buy. In general we are mid to late 20's with honours degrees and postgraduate training so are well paid (mid £20k salaries). A year ago a couple would have afforded a relatively nice place in a nice area, but now the same money is pushing to get anything in a remotely good area. At the same time it is clear that we can rent a very similar property to we could buy for approx 40% of the mortgage cost... the only reason to buy now is if you are dead sure the prices will go up - we just dont believe that is going to continue as it currently is.

anecdotal.

I went to view another house tonight in the Antrim area and was told by the vendor that the house had previously been sale agreed but they had to take it off the market as the house they were interested in had jumped £60,000 in a WEEK!
There could well be something in what taksalot says on the other hand I got the impression the vendor was downsizing and they could also have been looking to maximise their own equity.
This is the second property I have viewed in two weeks that has been sale agreed only to end up back on the market. Both properties were priced at 200k and currently have offers of 208k & 210k. I won't be bidding but I will keep an eye on them and maintain contact with the EA in order to judge what the final sale price might be.

It is obviously very hard to survey matters given sale prices are unavailable to us. Just keeping an eye on templeton robinson's site (since it lists 'current offer') I come up with only a tiny fraction of results in the sub 180k region being for sale (approx 16% - the remainder are sale agreed). A greater population is that on property news which results in perhaps 26%. Looking at the actual prices on robinsons, the average offer is some 27k above asking which equates to 17% above asking.

Surprisingly a significant number of people believe that this growth will continue for the forseeable future and consider that NI will 'Do a Dublin'. Unsurprisingly, very very few can answer when asked where they believe the money will come from.

Dublin is on the turn. I have also been keeping an eye on the market in Donegal which seems to have slowed over the last few months. Prices seemed to get a small boost when the planning laws changed in the summer but now seem to have stabilised with little obvious movement in sales.

I was contacted by the estate agent RE the last house I had viewed in Antrim and was told that it would most probably still be on the market in the SPRING. I asked why that was and was told the vendor had not realised his 'expected price' and was not likely too until the spring.
Bring on another .25% in Feb and he'll be lucky to realise 200k for it.

I am having an arguement about this on MSE. Every last one on the NI board is convinced that houses will continue to go up at a significant rate and would rate anything else as about 0% probability. I am a physicist by trade so analysis is something I am good at and the sheeple are just too fixated on 'it always goes up' to listen. Some of these people genuinely think that their council estate house will be worth a million in about 10 years (that is where the current growth leads us afterall!).

Talksalot, what is MSE?

money saving expert.... there is a set of forums ranging from electronics to mortgages.

I've been looking at the cost of property in the Belfast area and found that prices are extremely high compared to rents.

Not only would I not like to live in Northern Ireland and don't - I don't think that I would risk my money on overpriced housing stock.
BTLers would have to be crazy to make investments in NI now.
FTBers will be burnt should the economy (civil service/state subsidised) take a turn for the worst.

just out of curiosity, have you ever been to NI?

NI is a very "closed" environment - economically, politically, socially.

I think this is contributing to the hype, as most people do not look beyond the Belfast Telegraph/Irish News for their information. They have no previous experience of negative equity or a price boom to this extent, so it seems like a one way bet.

A rude awakening awaits.........

Spoke to a mate tonite who had 2 estate agents out to value his house yesterday.

A very nice semi in south Belfast (Finaghy direction).

One valued it at £300k.

The other valued it at an astonishing £445k.

He bought it 5 years ago for £145k and has spent about £20-30k on it.

Needless to say he has another estate agent coming to value it later today.

The third EA valued it at 400k, he has not decided what to do yet.
I'll keep in touch to see how things go.

It seems to me that people here currently spend what they are told. I have little doubt that he could put the price at the highest value and people would assume it to be a good number. Basically the prices people are paying is only weakly tied to the quality. If it is on the market right now, I think it will sell, almost irrelevant of the price.

Incidentally the huge bids over asking seems less the case up at higher prices. Basically everything sub £200k is shooting miles over asking. However I look in the £500/600k range - whilst there are indeed those going significantly above asking, there are a fair few which are not getting the same interest and have offers well below asking. Anecdotal entirely but if there is a bit more difficulty at the high end, eventually it should filter down so the low end becomes a tad more sensible!

Although it seems I may be talking to myself - the belfast telegraph had front page news and a major article about reposessions and how borrowers are pushing themselves too far...

it's ok your not talking to yourself - i (personally) didn't have anything to say in reply;

I have a bit of anecdotal for you now though.........

4 bedroom (1 box room) detached house on housing estate in randalstown went up for 189500 sold for 193000, bought in 2002 for 90

See headline on front page of the newsletter is "Up, Up, Up" gave a groan when seen that in the distance. Apparently its GOOD for homeowners and BAD for first time buyers. Good for investors maybe, means single home homeowners have to pay more than they would to move to bigger or better house than they would have before, and they would have more in fees/taxs along the way so how is it good?

Is it possible that the boom is confined to or more exaggerated at the lower/middle of the market? If so, it can only mean one thing - BTL is a driving factor. They are generally not interested in better properties as there is little demand for them as rentals.

UTV news at 6.... MAJOR article on house prices. Raised the fact that it was a totally shocking rise, raised the point about why it was happening and most importantly is very clearly stressed why it cannot continue...

HPC Veteran,

I do think the BTL brigade is a major factor. The right to buy scheme in NI didn't pick up pace here until way after the UK, I think mostly due to the political landscape.But now that it seems much more stable people are willing to invest in property and most have bought their council house. These in turn have been bought by investors and rented out.
I have also heard numerous stories of developers with holding release of new properties several months past the initial expected completion date and the increasing the asking price from the price that was initially agreed when a deposit was put down.

The way things are going I can't see a serious correction occurring for 18-24 months, unless interest rates increase at a quicker pace than they have been.

With current growth around 30%, that entails property rising by a further 70% before a correction - do you believe that will happen? That would mean that £100k (which is the very bottom of the ladder) would be £170k...

edit. Just in case that comes across as a snipe, it is not meant that way. It is a genuine question since your opinions have seemed well reasoned to this point

Talksalot,

No I think things will flatten out, maybe 5-10% growth next year. By 2008 if interest rates have increased by say 0.5% to 1%, coupled with increased rate bills and the introduction of water charges will put added pressure on already stretched finances.

These extra expenses, for a household with a 100k mortgage could cost between £800-£1200 per anum. In anyones book I think that is a significant amount to find. Then people coming out of fixed rate deals in 2008/09 could spell the start of a significant HP 'Correction'.

(I think crash is too srong a word.)

I wouldnt agree unfortunately it requires that the financing options remain. That probably requires that the mainland market remains stable (after all that is where most of our finance comes from) and I wouldnt like to be too sure of that.

Just for another note... UTV have their second article in as many nights. This time focusing on the release of land for development.

Talksalot,
Can you see a correction coming, if so when? if not why?

Yes, something must be coming.

When? I wouldn't put any money on it.

At the moment we have loads of buyers and very little property. Traditionally spring time addresses this balance to an extent after a winter/Xmas low. So Q1 will be interesting for these reasons:

1) What happens if (when?) the ratio of buyers/sellers shifts?
2) Greed. Alot of people think they have made alot of money and are sooner or later going to want to move up. We are at the highest point we have ever been and Xmas might give people the opportunity to sit down and say "come on, lets try and make the move". This might well add significantly to our buyer/seller change.

In honesty, if those features dont exhibit themselves, I doubt we will see much change in Q1/Q2 2007. Q3/Q4 I think is when 'living on a shoestring' (as many have signed up to) will start to get really 'old'. I tend to hope we get IR rises (maybe up to 5.5% by end 2007), but Brown I believe will do his best to avoid this and we already know he basically can do anything he fancies. There is alot to learn from foreign lands, the dollar instability might have wider ranging consequences which might start to show in the mid-term.

Looking a bit more fundamentally - where is the money coming from to maintain the growth? Well as yet lenders are willing to keep 'upping' debts and borrowers have insufficient comprehension to realise the problem. So I think we could well see continued increases. However, at the current rate, we will really hit a wall soon. Whilst borrowers might think it ok, I do believe the lenders will wise up eventually. Another year like this year and I think the lenders will be unwilling to support. Or more to the point, young buyers will no longer have the blindest hope of getting their own house.

A few other things:

- If next year does not see the same growth and selling ceases to be 30 seconds from first brochure to first offer, people may start to panic.
- In 2 years all those people who have bought at high levels will be expecting to sell and move up. If the young buyers cannot buy said peoples houses... there wont be any moving up.

The situation is really too complex to analyse in time. I am absolutely positive that buying is a very costly alternative (cf. renting), the affordability for young FTB's is awful and the rish is horrendous. That guarantees nothing other than I will not be getting involved unless something changes (or rather, I simply cant get involved).

Talksalot,

Thankyou, a very reasoned reply.

"I tend to hope we get IR rises (maybe up to 5.5% by end 2007), "

I think a 5.5% IR is likely to be with us by the summer and a sweat for more icreases in the autumn. I wouldn't be surprised if we see 6% by the end of 2007.
The BTL brigade will be servicing properties they are renting out, rental yield will not meet the required mortgage payments, quite a few of these will be off loaded. I know of one guy who is servicing a property by £200 per month but says he is happy to do this for another year or two as he feels HPs will continue to rise by 10% pa. It will be interesting if prices slow up by the summer what decisions the BTLers make. With a bit of luck we may see a significant increase in properties for sale.

"Q3/Q4 I think is when 'living on a shoestring' (as many have signed up to) will start to get really 'old'."

By Q1 and Q2 2008 the fixed rates will be finishing and the shoestrings may be over extended. if there is an increase in the number of more expensive properties on the market it may mean there is more competition for the cheaper ones as people may be looking to downsize.

Just to add,
My mate is putting his house on the market after christmas for £445k for a few months to see how it goes..........I'll be watching with interest.

Howdy peeps,

You might be interested in this blog http://daftwatch.atspace.com/

It shows all the listings on Daft.ie (including NI)

Granted there are few listings from NI but some nonetheless. On the right hand side there are listings by county...have a look.

Southern money is looking for a home and there are plenty of Nordies working in Dullbin these days.
Looks like a combination of UK hype and €urocash combining to give y'all the ride of your life.

Enjoy!

I wonder if anyone can make such a graph linked to propertynews.com. Now that would be interesting.

Needle,

Thanks very much for the link. I don't know whether to laugh or cry. It would appear some southern speculators have been very active in NI so as their market teeters on the brink more speculation may have come north. There could after all be a landslide in prices.

Anyone got any opinions on tonights BBC news report?

"Stock of housing executive homes is dwindling, the agency has sold 100,000 homes to its tenants leaving just 90,000."

Umm, stop selling them perhaps? What is the point in building the things just to give them away cheap and create 100,000 more ladder climbing property owners that will make the situation worse?