Have finally exchanged and completed. I'm home and dry at last!

I feel like the jammiest git in town. When I originally made the decision to STR, I was prepared to wait until 2nd half of 2005 before the turnaround. I can't believe sentiment has turned so quickly! I feel like the pilot who took the last parachute, leaving the rest of the crew & passengers on a flight that has just suffered terminal engine failure...

Although I'm a little sad to say goodbye to my home, I know it's the right thing to do.

Regards,

Congratulations

You could go down in history "as the last man to sell at the top of 2004 property market, the next month his old property fell in value by 10%"

Your so lucky your buyer doesnt read the papers.

Congratulations!, am due to complete tomorow myself having exchanged two weeks ago. Beers on you then - well till tomorow hopefully.

Van

And I say this with respect, I sensed a warm golden glow in your aura just now. This is great news and you must be very pleased!

Please…..yes, what's that Sam? Alright,…..please…if you will……thank you….. and blessings upon you too. Van, yes...there's a wonderful, wonderful lady at my side in the World of Spirit and she's trying to communicate with us now. It's a lovely kind dear lady and she has a message for you. Bless her. Yes, thank you Sam. This is only her second attempt at communication with the physical world, and she's still finding it difficult, but she's really trying so hard to get her message across. Van, she's showering blessings upon you! Oh, she's jumping up and down with joy! Jumping up and down like a jack-in-the-box. Bless her. She says well done to you and please don't worry because you've made the right decision.

And I say this respectfully Van; have you taken care of the legal documention that she mentioned earlier this week? Here's hoping so.

Blessings

Derek

Congratulations Van! Time for a new HPC pub meet courtesy of your newfound wealth?

By the way, the Northern Rock Guernsey still offers 5.5% fixed for one year. They must have some funds left they bought earlier this year in the swaps market. If I were you, I would rush some money there (but not all of it, you never know what will happen to outfits like NR).

..where are you putting the dosh, van...??

Who is Derek Achora????????

Van the man.

You know my general views on the market by now so you'll know this isn't a hostile
question, but I wonder if you'd mind telling me how you'd feel telling people about this itrw ie friends at work / down pub / at the club / in the pool / at the shops / over phone to old mates etc.

The reason I ask is that I never feel happy about my best market moves until I put the phone down : all the time I'm speaking to my broker (I class him as a friend - how sad is that), I'm putting myself down / predicting joculantly how once again I'm fool enough to be selling when eveyone else just wants to buy-buy-buy / buying when everyone else just wants to sell-sell-sell. In fact I've come to use this to my advantage: the more something feels plain stupid, the more I know it to be right.

Do you feel my description mirrors your experience STRing, or do you think property market dynamics are such that sentiment and price movement are less diammetrically out of phase and therefore give you a chance to move slightly with inflecting sentiment rather than having to go wholly against it?

(PS I'm what they call a fader trader. The other type, momentum traders, chance their arm with the early sheep so may take a different view from me on timing)

Cheers guys,
BP, How much,
I'm putting most of my dosh into equities- maybe up to 70%. Have been doing a lot of reading up on it lately - it's got me totally hooked. Plan to build a decent sized portfolio of shares in the next few years. I tell you what.. if you thought the property market was fascinating and addictive subject, equities is 10 times more so IMHO - the temptation to day trade is almost overwhelming!

I might come out with a loss. I don't really care - I'll put it down to the vicissitudes of the market and stay fully invested waiting for the next bull run. As long as I don't drastically underperform the market average I'll be happy enough. It's going to be fun.

HI VAN


I dont know how you could? mixing business with pleasure never go's down well, but in this case mixing business with out the pleasure of your home, in my opinion is even worse. none the less, i wish you well, and the best of luck.


regards BBB.


ps: was that the sound of the engine on that plane you spoke of firing back into life? (a bit below the belt i know, please take it in good humour)

Hello Pascal

I sensed a tremor in your voice vibration and want to reassure you that there's nothing to be concerned about. I'm a full-time, professional Spirit Medium and live near Southport, North West England, with my wife Gwen, Jack (my poodle) and Penny my German Shepherd. I also have four cats.

My first supernatural experience came as a child, when the spirit of my late grandfather visited me. When I told my grandmother, she was not surprised, as I was to learn that she herself was a medium. My early career was playing professional football with teams such as the legendary Bill Shankly's Liverpool Football Club and the premier Australian team USC Lion.

My psychic powers have always been with close at hand, therefore on my return to England in the early 1980s I became a full time spirit medium based at my home city of Liverpool.

Some of you will already be familiar with Sam my Spirit Guide, having seen and heard me converse with him on television and radio whilst conducting telephone readings for callers to the various programmes in which I have been fortunate enough to take part. Sam is the person I mention when contacting the World of Spirit, and he is particularly effective in predicting the fluctuations of the UK housing market and a constant source of inspiration to me.

Bless you


Derek

Sledgey,

When I decided to STR, I did of course bring this up to friends, colleagues & family. The majority thought I was mad.

Now, they've always generally seen me as a pretty canny operator with my head screwed on very tightly indeed; who's been able to read between the lines, as it were. I told them all: "sell your house. There's a crash coming." - but with the subtext of your house is also your home (so don't just do it for the money) etc. Whenever friends ask me why I sold, I flippantly say to them "I wish there was some more noble reason, but I did it for the money!". Being part of the herd of course, they can't see how I have made money by falling off the property ladder, so see me as some sort of crazed and demented person who has chosen to pay off someone else's mortgage for a few years.


How do I feel about it? To be very honest, I feel a slight sense of intellectual superiority. Let me say that I am personally more motivated by money than almost everyone else I personally know. Maybe not the thought of being rich as such (winning the lottery doesn't appeal to me; in fact, I've never even played it), but the thought that I have managed to earn something by being one step ahead of the herd is very appealing. If I manage to stay one step ahead of the herd, I think I'll do well no matter what life throws at me. Be a wage slave for the next 30 years? - Not for me, thanks.

WRT to investing philosophy, I'm very much an optimist who always sees the glass as half full; if I pick a stock and it rises by 100%, but I jump off at 50%, I ain't complaining.



Hmm. That's a toughie. In all honesty, I would say that the company I keep are like sheep - they still have positive sentiment and are very much entrenched in their bullish views. The few I know who have the vision to see that high property prices are NOT a good thing have been of this opinion for some time, suffering from not being able to trade up, etc. So far though, none have been bearish enough to actually STR, and instead subscribe to the GSD theory.

BBB,

Thanks. As I said, I am a little sad to be leaving my home, however - I think this is mostly down to not yet having another home to move to! I fancied a change of area anyway, so would have sold sooner or later, regardless.

I don't know how other STR's came to their decision, but for myself, I just simply sat down one evening with Excel, and figured out what the impact on my overall future wealth would be by sitting tight through a houseprice fall, instead of STR. Even with conservative price falls of 20% or so, I was quids in. There was no comparison - it hit me like a train, and the next day I formulated a plan and timetable to get it all into operation.
It was like a switch that flips inside your head - like the obese person who (I'm reliably informed) wakes up one day and decides to change his lifestyle, not for anyone else, but for him/herself. Nobody else can convince you; it's only something that you can learn for yourself.
That's how I know it was the right thing to do, for me.

A lot of self-back-slapping there Van.

Do you recommend families with children move to rented accomodation?

TTRTR,

It's up to them. Moving needn't be a hassle. I bet 95% of OO'ers with children could find a similar house to rent in the same street if they really wanted. This "don't want to uproot because of the children" argument is a load of crap and an excuse for not wanting to upset the miss's nesting instincts. Try telling a child the difference between a mortgage and rent.

Don't do it. Don't whittle away your STR profit on day trading. Almost all frequent traders loose money. That said, invest in quality and value shares and you can make a dosh. My portfolio is well up, although it is hard to put a percentage on it, because I have added to it at varying times, but the £16k I put in an ISA (£2k this tax year/£7k last TY and £7k the TY before last) are now at £18.3k. I still keep the vast majority in cash. With current rates, not a bad thing and lets me sleep at night.

Van, with this much dosh you are planning to play the markets, we should talk about various option writing strategies, such as covered calls and cash covered puts. If you are fascinated by the world of shares, you will be even more by options. 80% of all options expire worthless; the business of writing options is thus where you want to be.

Best of luck Van but beware of the effects a housing market correction could have on equities. Just because this bull market in property is at an end does not mean they'll be an automatic bull run in equities. Personally I'd hold back on the amount I invested in shares until I could see what the repurcusions are on the wider economy of a house price correction incase it creates a "dead cat bounce" in the equity markets. You don't want to defeat the whole object of STR'ing only to loose the money somewhere else. Remember the old saying "don't put all your eggs in one basket". That's why so many BTL's are gonna get their fingers burnt.

I agree. In my area, rented accomodation is amply available within 1/2 mile. Lots of properties to rent just down the road or sometimes even in the same block of flats. If somone is sitting on a nice paper profit and wants to realise it, why not?

Teddy, BP,

Thanks, BP, I am well aware of the effects of day trading, so don't worry there! I'm reading stuff from the likes of Benjamin Graham, Lynch, Buffett, Templeton etc - I feel in very safe hands. I see the equities as a much longer term thing, and not as simply something to do with my STR fund while the property market takes a dive. Even if the equities bear market continues, I'm prepared to stay fully invested (in fact, as these investing greats teach us, I'll be prepared to buy even more shares!).

Van mate,

I hope it works out for you, but BP beat me to it on what I had to say.

While you're reading, make sure you read 'Where are all the customers yachts?'

Whether it works out or not, I think you're in for some serious lessons. I hope they're not expensive lessons though!

BTW. I have a friend in Australia. He's a multi millionaire. He built up a business over 8 years and sold it in 98. He went to day trading for a while, said he came very close to losing a lot of money and rarely made any, but came to his senses and got out. He's back to what worked for him, running a business that has grown dramatically in value.

Maybe you should consider that instead.



Try explaining to them that they're leaving because the landlord wants to sell and they can't afford to buy in the area anymore.

TTRTR, why ask the question re children and renting?

Sorry ignore my last comment, i hadn't updated. will respond again later

Even though you've said don't worry:

It's easy for an adult with few ties to do this, but a family head would feel different about giving up their home.

Agree, my children have been through 3 primary schools and are now both at high school ages. Moving them around does not seem to have had a disastorous effect on them. I have to admit that I was extremely worried about the well being, but what has been more important for us as a family is for us all to be together.

Dad had to live in a hotel for 6/7 months and only saw the children at weekends and he could see his wife (me) getting used to being on her own. Renting and selling the house brought us all back together.

Children are more adaptable than some parents think!

I hope it all works our for you Van.

...you'll never have to...







....they're all in it for the long term...

Not at the rent you're willing to pay they aren't.

Van,

Congrats. on the STR. Talk about good timing... Although I think you were equally lucky that from what I can tell you've also had quite a niaive buyer/victim.

As I'm sure I've said before on this forum, a have a huge respect for the work of John Templeton. He's pretty much the ultimate investment bear and have made fortunes from going short with fantastic timing.

So are you planning to adopt a similar bear strategy in your dabbling with equities? You've now got first hand experience in herd dodging with the property market. One of Templetons best rules, similar to what Sledgehead was saying, is to remember that when everyone else is desperate to buy, that's the time to sell; and when everyone else is desperate to sell; that's the time to buy. Following this in an intelligent way, and with a reasonable spread of diversity in your portfolio and you should hopefuly make a comfortable and solid profit (as opposed to the highly risky "get rich quick" herd following of so many bull markets).

This is in no way a personal attack, but I'm curious, if you've found it so agreeable to rent, why have you called yourself 'fed up renting'?

Well we STR and we have a 3 year old daughter. If house prices fall and we can buy back at a later date a house that suits our needs ( we needed a house with more space ) and have less of a mortgage then the financial gains will better for our daughters future.!

Good for you if it works out and if it doesn't, you can always get a slightly larger mortgage. I personally think over the next 12 months you'll have time enough to decide if it's working or not without risking being caught behind the market.

But with a 3 year old changing your outlook on the world, are you putting 70% into the stock market (or considering becoming a day trader)?

That's ok TTRTR, I am fed up with renting, I would like a home of my own again, checking the papers, internet, estate agents is quite tiresome and time consuming.

But this is the best option at the moment, why should I pay £100-150K OTT for a house that is not (imo) worth it, this madness cannot carry on.

House prices are ridiculous, the other day my husband had a young man who works for him come in out of the blue and ask for a ridiculous pay rise, it turns out, he cannot get a mortgage, he is a FTB, the mortgage lenders wouldn't even "talk to him" as he put it, BTW he is paid more than the national average. Now the area we are talking about here is not one of the best and in some cases, is stamp duty free (sorry I can't remember the name for what they call these particular areas).

We sold our house at the end of 2002, we would probably have got more for it had we hung on, but then again, I may not be married now! such is life!

As many have picked up on in the past I'm living in Sweden partly because we recognised that we couldn't give our kids a decent place to grow up in London, despite having loads of equity and a good job.

So I know how you feel.

Hi TTRTR,
Would love to dabble in shares etc but have had no past experience in shares so would be too worried about loosing our equity so it sits in a building socity account gaining 5% for the moment. !

We could start a whole new thread off on "where do you put your money"

I am constantly looking for new accounts to stash the wadge, particularly after learning not to hold more than £30K in a building society account, I am trying to spread it around getting the best deals with the best notices available ie no notice!

We are into 1 month of max amount in premium bonds, not doing very well btw!

Much better than gambling it!

Yes, point taken, but at least I won't loose the pennies. I can always invest in property abroad and the interest we are getting in the bank offsets our rent at the moment. I just cannot bring myself to pay 300k for a house that a couple of years ago was 90k. !

Good one, Van.

Much success, and invest carefully.
Big sums of money can burn a hole in one's pocket.

- - -
Spirit Guides...?
Well. I suppose the board needs a few

FedUp,

What are you complaining about?
Renting is relatively cheap. The crowd is overpaying.
Leave the Residential market to blind idiots, and await the correction

TTRTR

We did , this time last year. Family of four , whose parents (esp mother) is a complete housing market freak. Did we do the right thing? Too right! Were we ridiculed? you bet! Now what are all my friends telling me? "the market's going to crash you know"......marvellous!!!!

That is scary!

This time last year, you had to have sold your place for 10-15% less than current prices.

Your friends may be talking crash, but there's no truth in it at this point.

(in Sir Humphrey voice)

70% into equities? That is very brave.

Consider that analysts have given the FTSE an upside of 4750 or so this year and it already tested that level and fell back to the 4500 level.

Still, some of my investments in commodities have done quite well, pity about the rest!

There seem to be plenty of views that equities are still over-rated. Plus quite a few worries about the soundness of the global economy. There is also the issue of the political cycle, with the US election and UK election in the near future.

IMHO, STR is risky enough already without leveraging it one more notch by risking the capital in equities... but then our friend is probably young enough not to worry about this.

Also, as I have seen my equities drop in value by 30% in the last 5 years I probably have become a bit bearish in that sphere. The only thing that has held my portfolio up has been banking shares and I believe that they are about to take a tumble when the housing market finally turns south.

Glad you pulled it off. Congratulations!

How is Van these days?

van, well done.

can I ask you a question though.
did you have to take a drop to get the sale ?

Dont worry about him - you know how all the STR's invested in junior mining companies and made fortunes...

GOM , check your dates m8

I believe he ran into Bruno...


...who ate his liver with fava beans and a nice Chianti.

Congratulations. I found the time between exchanging and completing - one was before Xmas and the other in the third week of Jan - to be very stressful as I feared the buyer pulling out. I suspect you must have had similar thoughts... or am I just paranoid!?

edited out an even more stoopid comment than the 1st one



I bet he took a drop though......