INFLATION PSYCHOLOGY is coming back too
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Why the real rate of inflation is twice what the official figures tell us Rises in bills that have to be paid come what may hurt more than rises in luxury items
By Philip Thornton, Economics Correspondent
Published: 13 June 2006
Official figures later this morning are expected to reveal that inflation rose to 2.1 per cent from 2.0 per cent last month. While this will create huge excitement among City traders betting on the next move in interest rates, it will leave millions of ordinary people scratching their heads in bewilderment. Perhaps with good reason.
...an index devised by The Independent, and published today, appears to back that notion. The index strips out items that are not essential to a basic standard of living. Thus we have taken out leisure goods and services, household services, personal goods, buying a car, tobacco and alcohol. Our index is dominated by the cost of running a home, paying for the public utilities, keeping a car on the road and basic items such as clothing, furniture and chemists goods. It is open to criticism - why include the cost of running a car but not buying it? - but it attempts to isolate areas of inflation that irk people.
While the official inflation rate the Bank of England uses to set interest rates has been below 2 per cent for 20 out of the past 28 months, our index has been above 4 per cent for 17 of those months, and higher than 5 per cent for five.
In other words
non-discretionary inflation is running at about twice the targeted one - and in October 2004 showed an annual rise of 5.3 per cent, more than four times the official measure of 1.2 per cent.
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