DrBubb
May 13 2006, 07:18 AM
(Moderator, please MOVE this thread to Mkt.Psych. section after a day or two maximum)
BULL Psychology in UK Property seems set to break =============
The hypercenter of the recent Bullish storm was the end of March, when some posters on this Forum suddenly threw in the towel and said things like, "
Get out of my way, I am going to buy." That mood marked this year's ultimate extreme of bullish sentiment.
Other posters have commented on the Main that psychology is changing back towards the bearishness that prevailed here for most of last year. And we certainly see the same thing on the charts. Here are my two bellwether builders stocks, look how they are breaking or testing uptrends:
Wimpey (WMPY) ...
update
Barratt Development (BDEV) ...
update
Meantime, the negative fundamentals are starting to push through from the background into the foreground, and we have seen some major market moves in the past week:
+ Crashes in the Middle East stock markets, which are down 50% (
Saudi) to 60%(
Dubai)
+ New lows for the year in US bonds (
TLT), and a possible break of 4 year lows
+ The 2.5% fall in the
Dow over the past 2-3 days
+ The sharp
break in FTSE on Friday
+ FT.com's
article about how the Halifax reported 2% rise was misleading, and their own figures are showing a cooling off in property,
+ The possible impending breakdown in the charts of the UK Builders (next week maybe?)
I dont think it will be long before the views of many of the Bulls here will be permanently altered. The gathering storm is gathering fast now. I cannot see what will reverse it.
WE WERE at a similar threshold last year. Then, thanks to the August rate cut, and the bounceback in stocks in late October, property market psychology pulled back from the brink of breaking, and ran up to new highs (prices of Builders.) But I do not see how this can be reversed this time. Nevertheless, I will stay alert to signs of the break or a reversal next week
= =
Please post on this thread or
on GEI - I want to move thsi thread to the Psychology section to keep this thread in a place where it will not disappear, so the charts etc. can be reviewed in a few weeks or month to see if they were of any value.
CrashIsUnderWay
May 13 2006, 07:21 AM
QUOTE(DrBubb @ May 13 2006, 07:18 AM) [snapback]375045[/snapback]
... But I do not see how this can be reversed this time.
presumably by the same trick - a quarter point cut in interest rates.. :-)
DrBubb
May 13 2006, 07:24 AM
I doubt that they can cut rates quickly enough to stop the Bear spiral that we are headed into.
BTW, I know several people who have made HUGE money in commodities that are out buying or lokking for houses. So maybe a possible brief, sharp reversal in those markets wll also have an adverse impact on Property too
sign_of_the_times
May 13 2006, 07:26 AM
QUOTE(CrashIsUnderWay @ May 13 2006, 08:21 AM) [snapback]375046[/snapback]
presumably by the same trick - a quarter point cut in interest rates.. :-)
Go Nickell, Go !
Roshan
May 13 2006, 07:37 AM
They cant just do a rate cut this time because inflation is above targets. Mostly doue to commodities. So either commodities must fall to reduce inflation so they dont need to hike up rates, or rates will have to rise, leaving house prices to fall. Their first priority will be to combat inflation.
Ive got a feeling this could be the worst time ever to buy property
DrBubb
May 13 2006, 07:45 AM
"Ive got a feeling this could be the worst time ever to buy property"

THE RUG is about to be pulled- just when they thought it was SAFE to go back into the market.
And this change may be fast and shocking to many. If it comes as quickly as I think, market psychology may not recover for years
BTLOptingOut
May 13 2006, 08:09 AM
QUOTE(DrBubb @ May 13 2006, 08:45 AM) [snapback]375058[/snapback]
THE RUG is about to be pulled- just when they thought it was SAFE to go back into the market.
And this change may be fast and shocking to many. If it comes as quickly as I think, market psychology may not recover for years
Well we've been here a number of times before over the past 2.5 years, and although I'm firmly of the opinion that there's no more ceiling room i'm also cautious over any expectations of a speedy correction.
Do agree however that if we do experience a correction (of the order of 20%+) market psychology may be reeling for many years 7+......The memory of 2 mega booms and busts within 20 years should stick in peoples minds a looooong time.
P.S Most impressed with your forcasting over the last 18mths + on commodities and stock....damn wish I had had a punt..........any tips going forwards
DrBubb
May 13 2006, 08:30 AM
"any tips going forwards"
MY BIG tip last week was PUTS on the US indices.
Even my gf made 30% on a trade.
Probably not too late. But wait for a bounce, and a dip in VIX
= =
I really think some folks should look back to what I wrote in
late March about Property.
The thread talks about how some of the postings here gave very useful readings on Market Psychology then:
"These rightmove and Hometrack figures have just about finished me off, if their intention along with this Goverment to break me, all i can say is well done you shits, your job is done"
(Sam, in : I Will Now Do Whatever It Takes To Get Property, And I Mean Anything)
"All my life I have dreamed of owning my own home. That right. ALL my life"
(Elizabeth)
... Now we get:
"
I Bought a House, and I'm Glad I did" (TedsToxicGhost):
seeking reassurance, or trying to wind up the would-be buyers here.
But the reality is, he has bought right at the top in that Q1 hysteria: sad.
Realistbear
May 13 2006, 08:47 AM
If the stock market carnage that we experienced las week carries over to next week the "feel good" factor associated with making major purchases will evaporate. The crashes in the Middle East (As Dr. Bubb points out above--some as much as 50%) may be precursory to a world wide correction that has been long overdue in the wake of the massive increases in oil prices. The last two major recessions were oil price linked and it has been odd that, to date, the price of oil has not unsettled the markets to the degree that would have been expected.
I have decided to go to cash with some more liquidation of stock holdings that are denominated in US $ but invested worldwide. The immediate fallout is clearly hitting the dollar but it seems that the US has more to gain from a falling dollar than the UK and EU has by seeing their currencies appreciate against a major importer. For the US it will mean fewer overseas purchases and a shrinking trade deficit which will help correct some of the imbalances that have dogged the US economy.
What does surprise me is the strength of the pound. With broadly similar problems to the US in terms of a growing deficit, lacklustre employment and almost equal personal debt per capita it seems that the overkill may be more reactionary than driven by fundamentals. If you factor in the US GDP growth at about double that of the UK (recently revised downwards by some economists) a disparity emerges that suggests that a CABLE correction may occur soon.
The rush to gold illustrates the level of fear in the markets. When there is fear there is going to be over-reaction and potential for huge losses if you gamble on the current wave. This may explain why Warren B favours cash and has billions READY (in waiting) to invest. He dumped his massive holdings of silver awhile back and has not be buying much recently. He sold one of his houses in California last September. The genius may have seen all this coming and sits with a pile of cash ready to buy in when everythings hits bottom. Perhaps we should do likewise
Roy Cropper
May 13 2006, 08:49 AM
Dr Bubb
The graphs you refer to certainly show a small fall in builders share price. You imply that this means house prices will also therefore fall.
But just how smart are investors out there. I seem to remember that they sold builders many times lthis ast year or two, only to realise later what a big mistake they had made.
Why is it different this time.
DrBubb
May 13 2006, 08:57 AM
Roy,
What I am looking for is the BREAK of the TREND. These charts appear to be rolling over, but we need a break of trend as a first confirmation. I expected it last year, and we came to the breakpoint, broke through on some of the charts, but most charts held. Last October, I was so eager to see a breakdown, that I jumped the gun, saying that I saw it as immanent- then we pulled back from the brink. (I can find the last posting just before it happened, but that would take soem digging.)
I am being more cautious this time. But I thought people on HPC may want to know that we are right on the brink of breaking some important chart points. The break could come as soon as Monday. If that touches off a sharp slide in prices, and it is accompanied by HIGH SELLING VOLUME, that will be an important sign that a key erosion in Market Psychology has begun.
I continue to believe that the UK Builders charts provide a important bellwether: the prices are CURRENT, and they are UNBIASED, which is more than you can say for the stats coming out of Halifax, Nationwide, etc. And it works, usually with a TIME DELAY. For example, the run-up in the Builders in November and December was followed by the Q1 price blip in House Price Inflation, as measured by indices. But the Builders stock prices faded in Q1, and the HPI indices appear set to fade now. Will they slide and slide fast? perhaps, but if they do, I think we will see the Builders share prices slide first.
BandWagon
May 13 2006, 09:52 AM
I'd love to see the break DrBubb, but I think we may have to have an unwelcome, unexpected economic shock.
People have become used to paying such ludicrous prices for houses, you average Joe just doesn't realise how stupidly over-valued this market is right now.
They think everything is quite normal. And the media constantly re-affirms their delusions.
The now familiar rising unemployment, and rising rates will help, but we really need something from out of the blue that makes people realise they aren't living in fairyland.
There are risks out there, and right now is a horrendously risky time to buy massively overpriced assets like property.
But people just don't get it.
Right now I know people paying sums of money for houses that make my eyes water, yet they think it's completely normal.
And I work in the derivatives market, believe me I'm used to seeing big numbers.
I know people who are unemployed buying, and people about to lose their jobs buying.
We're going to need a war/massive dollar slide/ sequential interest rises/continuing rising unemployment.
We're probably going to get 2 of those this year, and possibly all 4.
Maybe then people will begin to understand.
Sadly I fear many people will only learn this the hard way.
Bubble Pop Electric
May 13 2006, 10:12 AM
We also noticed about 3 days ago that there was suddenly a glut of very bearish news everywhere that you looked, & we felt that sentiment was changing rapidly. The drop in the stockmarket on Friday is perhaps a reaction to this sudden change, unsettling the nerves of many people who've been sitting on the fence wrt our current situation.
I can't help but get the feeling that this sudden U-turn in the press, from the BoE, etc has had a dramatic effect, & I get the feeling that now, more than at any time in the past few years, that we are right on the edge of the abyss.
It'll be interesting to see what happens on Monday, but if the slide continues, then I think Dr Bubb may well be right & we'll see a very rapid correction as the herd follow the rest of the market as their delusions are rapidly shattered.
We are friends with a professor of economics & regularly have a "heated debate" with her regarding house prices & the economy. Suprisingly she agrees that the economy is an illusion, yet at the same time thinks that house prices won't fall !?! I keep telling her that she's trying to predict the market in terms of economics, when really it's all driven by Human psychology - mainly GREED & FEAR.
We've had the greed for a long time, now let the fear (or perhaps terror) begin !
PS Dr Bubb - is now a good time to buy Gold?
Magpie
May 13 2006, 10:26 AM
QUOTE(DrBubb @ May 13 2006, 08:18 AM) [snapback]375045[/snapback]
Here are my two bellwether builders stocks, look how they are breaking or testing uptrends:
DrBubb,
I'm always interested in your reports on the moves in builders' stocks, but do you think that builders stocks falling will inevitably lead to nominal falls in house prices? I'm sure there have been ups and downs in builders' stocks over the last forty years or so, but house prices fell significantly in nominal terms just the once.
I can see that if builders are suffering, they may slash prices on new-builds. I remember many half-finished projects last time that got abandoned or even demolished. But I'm not sure I see a definite causal chain from builder's stocks to the wider market. New-builds are a fairly small proportion of the market, and are clearly wildly overpriced at this stage. I do think that some buildings will get sold off at slashed prices and people will start to lose faith in executive apartments as an investment. But I can imagine this happening without a wider crash (not that prices elsewhere would rise necessarily, but maybe they would stagnate).
How do you think the causal chain will work?
Culpability Brown
May 13 2006, 10:32 AM
I'm in total agreement with you on all points Dr Bubb.
Last October should have been the beginning of the end but somehow the sheer weight of sentiment on the part of the HPI obsessed British public pushed forward a final last stand.
A last stand that has drawn more FTB's and investors into the mire.
The US as usual is the economy to watch right now, they're leading the way through this fascinating period of economic "bubble" history. The dollar and US Treasuries are under immense pressure.
Exciting times here and now.
Forget about house prices for a liitle while folks. It's more a question of not taking on exuberant amounts of debt that should be your primary focus.
Sit it out.
Realistbear
May 13 2006, 10:41 AM
QUOTE(Magpie @ May 13 2006, 11:26 AM) [snapback]375140[/snapback]
DrBubb,
I'm always interested in your reports on the moves in builders' stocks, but do you think that builders stocks falling will inevitably lead to nominal falls in house prices? I'm sure there have been ups and downs in builders' stocks over the last forty years or so, but house prices fell significantly in nominal terms just the once.
I can see that if builders are suffering, they may slash prices on new-builds. I remember many half-finished projects last time that got abandoned or even demolished. But I'm not sure I see a definite causal chain from builder's stocks to the wider market. New-builds are a fairly small proportion of the market, and are clearly wildly overpriced at this stage. I do think that some buildings will get sold off at slashed prices and people will start to lose faith in executive apartments as an investment. But I can imagine this happening without a wider crash (not that prices elsewhere would rise necessarily, but maybe they would stagnate).
How do you think the causal chain will work?
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/conte...0515_956930.htmHomebuilders: is the party over?Explores the connection between crashing housebuilder stocks and the housing market.
DrBubb
May 13 2006, 10:44 AM
Dr Bubb - is now a good time to buy Gold? (It is a dangerous time to buy Gold and Gold stocks. Normally we see a seasonal correction in July or August. Now I would wait and see if the market cools, and we get that seasonal pullback.)
Can see that if builders are suffering, they may slash prices on new-builds . ....
But I'm not sure I see a definite causal chain from builder's stocks to the wider market. (OK.
Here's how i see it: Sentiment towards property drives both the Builders shares, and the actual propety market. However, it is not a perfect correlation, since sentiment towards the stock market as a whole will also impact on the builders shares.

The main point is this: a shift in sentiment will immediately impact upon Builders shares, but only slowly show up in reported Property sales prices. And there is an even longer delay to when it shows up in the indices of Halifax and Nationwide. So you should keep your eyes on the Builders for immediate clues as to where Property is headed. If Builders are falling LESS than the general market, that may be a neutral or even bullish sign. If they are falling faster than the general indices, that is Bearish.)
FTBagain
May 13 2006, 10:47 AM
I've been into Gold since November. I have never made so much on an investment is so short a time. I have read a few very good articles lately, thanks to fellow HPC'ers, and felt that a Gold pull back was possible. Friday I cashed in my profits. Now I am not so sure.
I am now about 70% Gold 30% Cash. This is turning into a nail biting weekend.
Bubble Pop Electric
May 13 2006, 10:52 AM
Thanks Dr. Bubb
I was trying to work out whether the fall of the dollar & stock markets would create a rush for gold, pushing the price up. However, it too fell on Friday despite making some rapid gains earlier in the day. Maybe people were taking their profit, or maybe people are just bailing out of all of their investments & sitting on the cash?
Realistbear
May 13 2006, 10:59 AM
QUOTE(Bubble Pop Electric @ May 13 2006, 11:52 AM) [snapback]375170[/snapback]
Thanks Dr. Bubb
I was trying to work out whether the fall of the dollar & stock markets would create a rush for gold, pushing the price up. However, it too fell on Friday despite making some rapid gains earlier in the day. Maybe people were taking their profit, or maybe people are just bailing out of all of their investments & sitting on the cash?
I read that Warren B was bearish on commodities ( and house prices) recently and has 70 billion "ready" to invest. Post crash in stocks and commodities perhaps? His value based investing strateghy would say to not buy when the masses are buying as that is a sell signal. Perhaps gold is at or near its peak as the little guys are jumping in?
Culpability Brown
May 13 2006, 11:05 AM
QUOTE(Realistbear @ May 12 2006, 10:59 PM) [snapback]375175[/snapback]
I read that Warren B was bearish on commodities ( and house prices) recently and has 70 billion "ready" to invest. Post crash in stocks and commodities perhaps? His value based investing strateghy would say to not buy when the masses are buying as that is a sell signal. Perhaps gold is at or near its peak as the little guys are jumping in?
Personally I think that the little guys are only just beginning to take a look at Gold and commodities in general.
So the potential upside for gold is still pretty spectacular.
I think gold has still got a long way to go. There will be peaks and troughs but each new spike upwards will continue to excede the last for a long time to come.
Magpie
May 13 2006, 11:18 AM
QUOTE(DrBubb @ May 13 2006, 11:44 AM) [snapback]375159[/snapback]
Here's how i see it: Sentiment towards property drives both the Builders shares, and the actual propety market. However, it is not a perfect correlation, since sentiment towards the stock market as a whole will also impact on the builders shares.
Graphic
The main point is this: a shift in sentiment will immediately impact upon Builders shares, but only slowly show up in reported Property sales prices. And there is an even longer delay to when it shows up in the indices of Halifax and Nationwide. So you should keep your eyes on the Builders for immediate clues as to where Property is headed. If P Builders are falling LESS than the general market, that may be a neutral or even bullish sign. If they are falling faster than the general indices, that is Bearish.)
Thanks - that is interesting. I wasn't really looking at it from the sentiment side, but I see what you're saying more clearly now.
Also, I suppose that in sentiment towards builders' stocks there's two elements (in addition to the overall SM direction) - a clear logical view as to whether or not they will be profitable, and a more woolly element which is just about sentiment towards property in general. Hard to disentangle the two, though both are relevant, as falling profits are likely to lead to cuts in prices on new-builds, feeding back into negative sentiment in the wider market. I do always bear in mind that the people who can best afford to slash prices are the developers, and big falls anywhere in the market could change the front page tabloid stories.
Seen that way I can see how it could be a useful warning sign of negative sentiment. (Though I still think that it remains to be seen whether or not that negative sentiment will lead to nominal falls or stagnation/real falls.)
DrBubb
May 13 2006, 11:30 AM
here's the Graphic, which I added later

Although there is a delay between moves in the Builders share prices, and Property prices, the Builder shares do not "cause" moves in the Property price. Instead, they are both driven by sentiment, and there is a lag in how quickly prices of property are reported.
The actual reported profits of the Builders are historical, a look backwards. They do not drive the share price. Instead, the stock market's assessment of future profits and future property prices will. You will soon see Builders trading at tiny P/E ratios
Bubble Pop Electric
May 13 2006, 11:50 AM
QUOTE(Culpability Brown @ May 13 2006, 12:05 PM) [snapback]375180[/snapback]
Personally I think that the little guys are only just beginning to take a look at Gold and commodities in general.
So the potential upside for gold is still pretty spectacular.
I think gold has still got a long way to go. There will be peaks and troughs but each new spike upwards will continue to excede the last for a long time to come.
Thats exactly what I thought too. We sold our house to rent about 2 1/2 years ago because we couldn't see how the prices could possibly get any higher - we thought it was insane as it was. Now, the house we sold is valued at more than twice the amount we sold it for.
Gold looks like it's made some incredible gains & needs to pull back, but my feeling after the house experience, is that it's probably still got a long way to go before it reaches it's peak, even though it seems like it should be peaking now.
Of course, if the stockmarkets go t*ts up, it might be a bit different.
DrBubb
May 13 2006, 12:13 PM
My guess...
A pullback to $600 or lower into the summer, followed by the great leap through $1,000 in coming months, as the dollar comes unstuck.
Gold stocks are lagging, because people dont believe these higher gold price are going to stick
AND YES,
the property market rose on widespread scepticism until "everyone" was convinced, why shouldn't Gold do the same? Your friends and family are all involved in property. You dont yet see that in Gold
vinny
May 13 2006, 12:19 PM
QUOTE(DrBubb @ May 13 2006, 01:13 PM) [snapback]375220[/snapback]
My guess...
A pullback to $600 or lower into the summer, followed by the great leap through $1,000 in coming months, as the dollar comes unstuck.
Gold stocks are lagging, because people dont believe these higher gold price are going to stick
I agree this is likely.
Unfortunately some here have learned less than I had hoped and have turned into out and out perma gold bulls. Reminds me of property bulls - blind to (even short term) risks.
cnago has threatened not to post again because of what I (nd some others)????? said about the probability of a significant pullback from here.
DrBubb
May 13 2006, 12:23 PM
Will HPC move from a Property Bear orthodoxy,
to a Gold Bull orthodoxy? I hope not.
I for one, will reserve the right to shift my position when market conditions warrant a shift
Bubble Pop Electric
May 13 2006, 12:28 PM
My interest in gold is simply that if the dollar/stockmarket/£/fiat system starts to meltdown & we head for a big depression (which I think is on the cards - at least it has a significant probability), I want to protect the cash that I have now in the best possible way.
I thought gold would be the best store of wealth, but are there any other good ideas?
vinny
May 13 2006, 12:29 PM
QUOTE(DrBubb @ May 13 2006, 01:23 PM) [snapback]375232[/snapback]
Will HPC move from a Property Bear orthodoxy,
to a Gold Bull orthodoxy?
I hope not. I for one, will reserve the right to shift my position when market conditions warrant a shift
Exactly my hopes too.
But I feel that some gold bulls are almost saying that you HAVE to BUY NOW. If this is a true bull market then this simply is not the case.
This strikes me as being akin to "you have missed / will miss the boat".
I also feel
100% in gold is risky. (I think you and others know I fear deflation as much as hyperinflation).
DrBubb
May 13 2006, 01:46 PM
"strikes me as being akin to "you have missed / will miss the boat".
I Know what you mean.
That attitude towards market is ridiculous. Regret is useless, and sometimes it can cause to jump in too late, after the move has happened. A healthier attitude is characterised by Tom O'Brien's motto:
"There's always another trade."
And so there is. I try to focus on find the next good trade, and have become good at that.
It is easier and safer than trying to make the last dollar in a Bull market. And if you are still in the peaking market turn, you can really get hammered.
housepricepooer
May 13 2006, 01:48 PM
It is quite normal to have mixed feelings about whether to buy or sell an investment after making so much in such a short time. Consider this: gold reached around $850 oz in 1980. At $715 oz now it is not only short of this figure but way short of the inflation adjusted figure of around $2200 oz.
I am not sure of the equivalent figures for other assets (and particuarly residential property) although I think you will find that gold still looks good as a future investment.
Apart from intrinsic reasons, gold has its own 'bubble' potential and this very factor brings in new types of investor as has occured with other asset classes (and property in particular).
I too have been a gold investor for the last three years (I currently have around £100K invested). For better or for worse I will not be selling soon; in fact, I am trying to liquidate one or two other holdings to buy some more. My personal view is that gold will be at $950 by year end and that rates in the US will be falling by then not rising.
By the way, the US is a great nation, notwithstanding its unstable administration at present. Whilst I see trouble ahead for this nation, the American people will re-group and prevail. It may take time but I am not of the view that the world in 50 years will be one dominated by the Chinese.
vinny
May 13 2006, 03:10 PM
QUOTE(housepricepooer @ May 13 2006, 02:48 PM) [snapback]375292[/snapback]
It is quite normal to have mixed feelings about whether to buy or sell an investment after making so much in such a short time. Consider this: gold reached around $850 oz in 1980. At $715 oz now it is not only short of this figure but way short of the inflation adjusted figure of around $2200 oz.
I am not sure of the equivalent figures for other assets (and particuarly residential property) although I think you will find that gold still looks good as a future investment.
Apart from intrinsic reasons, gold has its own 'bubble' potential and this very factor brings in new types of investor as has occured with other asset classes (and property in particular).
I too have been a gold investor for the last three years (I currently have around £100K invested). For better or for worse I will not be selling soon; in fact, I am trying to liquidate one or two other holdings to buy some more. My personal view is that gold will be at $950 by year end and that rates in the US will be falling by then not rising.
By the way, the US is a great nation, notwithstanding its unstable administration at present. Whilst I see trouble ahead for this nation, the American people will re-group and prevail. It may take time but I am not of the view that the world in 50 years will be one dominated by the Chinese.
I would not rule your targets out.
For average Joe Sixpack -
with no debt , I don't think much more than say 20 Oz of gold is required for PROTECTION. I think this amount in coins or small investment bars may suffice to keep him clothed and fed.
FWIW, I have recently sold 30oz leaving just 16.75oz in my sweaty palms.
I think those holding more than this may produce profit in a big way, but there are risks especially to those OUTSIDE the US in particular in being 100% in gold. If we do hyperinflate then I would be more bullish on ALL assets including the SM and real estate.
It is important, I think, to stay liquid and know how to quickly get from cash into gold - I bet not one in a hundred people out there are aware how to do this quickly.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Back on topic - Doc I think you are right. I don't know if you remember me saying the same thing (almost) on GEI recently? Nice charts (again). Funny how I am looking at the charts slightly differently to you - but reaching the same conclusion BTW.
Sine270
May 13 2006, 03:15 PM
QUOTE(DrBubb @ May 13 2006, 01:23 PM) [snapback]375232[/snapback]
Will HPC move from a Property Bear orthodoxy,
to a Gold Bull orthodoxy? I hope not.
I for one, will reserve the right to shift my position when market conditions warrant a shift
Hey Bubb. You were a major contributer in turning many here into Gold Bugs.
Once you get into it it really grabs a hold of you. Especially when you start to see big profits and you ask yourself why you only have 10% invested in gold. You were very bullish on gold and this was something that it was easy for everyone to get into, unlike Canadian mining stocks, warrants, puts etc
You will know when HPC turns more into a Gold Bull Orthodoxy because to talk of corrections and over buying will be met with AWOOGA
vinny
May 13 2006, 03:28 PM
QUOTE(Sine270 @ May 13 2006, 04:15 PM) [snapback]375331[/snapback]
Hey Bubb. You were a major contributer in turning many here into Gold Bugs.
Once you get into it it really grabs a hold of you. Especially when you start to see big profits and you ask yourself why you only have 10% invested in gold. You were very bullish on gold and this was something that it was easy for everyone to get into, unlike Canadian mining stocks, warrants, puts etc
You will know when HPC turns more into a Gold Bull Orthodoxy because to talk of corrections and over buying will be met with AWOOGA

I
FEEL as if that is what was nearly being said to me recently Sine.
Goldbug conversion - yep - I LOVE the feel of gold / the weight of it in my hand. I will keep my remaining holding (It's tiny anyway) regardless if I can. I will add to my pile at a pace that suits me IF the time is right.
DrBubb
May 13 2006, 03:43 PM
"gold has its own 'bubble' potential"
(SURE. But we are not there yet.
Ownership is not as widespread as it can become, and the banks are not in pushing
gold product yet, which I expect we will see before the end of it.
"The US is a great nation... the American people will re-group and prevail."
(ONE DAY, Yes.
But we will need to see leadership which can introduce PURPOSE back to the American people.
A mission as teh "World's policeman" is a dangerous and thankless task. The "leaders in Alternative
Energy experimentation and innovation" would be much, much better. But it will take time to get there.)
- -
"Hey Bubb. You were a major contributer in turning many here into Gold Bugs"
(OK. And i am pleased if people made money.
But now people have to realise, that it will not be so eay from here. There will be shakeouts
and corrections. And the best time to introduce new money now will be after a correction.
I dont want to lead people off a cliff, I want to lead people to being better at understanding economic
matters, and better at making their own decisions. Awake yee Sheep, to your own inner Gurus!)
Van
May 13 2006, 05:34 PM
Gold is ready to tank IMHO. It's WAY overbought. Nothing goes up in a straight line. The 2-year chart has gone almost parabolic, but failed at $730, which is long term resistance from 1980.
chart (posted Tuesday.. Gold has gone up even more since then).

10% correction, minimum.
DrBubb
May 13 2006, 05:37 PM
Agreed: correction from here-ish looks likely.
The weaker relative performance of the HUI (see ratio :
HUI / Gold and
XAU here )
is another bearish indication
= =
INTERESTING.
We all seem to be happy to use charts to talk about short term movements in Gold,
but people rarely do the same with property
muggle
May 13 2006, 06:06 PM
Have to say, The
Bryant Homes marketing stall at Lakeside Shopping Centre looked very quiet earlier today.
I almost felt sorry for them... almost
DrBubb
May 13 2006, 10:51 PM
Time to move this maybe.
Then look back at it in a few weeks or a few months, and see what has transpired
RECORD: 1,554 hits at: First day/Today, 11:51 PM
Van
May 14 2006, 07:07 AM
There was a staggering day last month when Silver corrected about almost 20% inside a session. There's every possibility that Gold & other precious metals and base metals can undergo the same sort of action.
Despite that, I reckon silver has much more upside potential that Gold, based on historical charts. Gold peaked at $850 in 1980, which adjusted for inflation would translate to $2600, some 270% away. Silver peaked at nearly $50, equal to $150 in today's money, still a staggering 900% away.
Ignore those olympic-types. Aim for silver, not gold.
Magpie
May 14 2006, 10:19 AM
QUOTE(DrBubb @ May 13 2006, 01:23 PM) [snapback]375232[/snapback]
Will HPC move from a Property Bear orthodoxy,
to a Gold Bull orthodoxy? I hope not.
I for one, will reserve the right to shift my position when market conditions warrant a shift
Quite right. But if so, I think you should be cautious in talking of gold as "real money". That way of talking tends to reinforce a mentality that gold is magical or invulnerable - and that's where I think there is a risk of gold-investment turning into blind faith rather than logical thinking.
You've obviously done a lot of people a favour by tipping gold at the right time - I just hope that people will still remember that gold can go both ways.
oracle
May 14 2006, 01:12 PM
[quote name='DrBubb' date='May 13 2006, 11:44 AM' post='375159']
Dr Bubb - is now a good time to buy Gold? (It is a dangerous time to buy Gold and Gold stocks. Normally we see a seasonal correction in July or August. Now I would wait and see if the market cools, and we get that seasonal pullback.)
normally,yes,and the charts indicate we should have one very soon.However,this is not a normal geo-political situation with Iran.....the rhetoric is getting louder and I fully expect this one to go ballistic(intercontinental ballistic to be precise).in the face of this I think any correction we have will be shorter and smaller than people expect.
QUOTE(Realistbear @ May 13 2006, 11:59 AM) [snapback]375175[/snapback]
I read that Warren B was bearish on commodities ( and house prices) recently and has 70 billion "ready" to invest. Post crash in stocks and commodities perhaps? His value based investing strateghy would say to not buy when the masses are buying as that is a sell signal. Perhaps gold is at or near its peak as the little guys are jumping in?
WB's approach to investing is hoover up beaten up stuff and ride it until it looks fair value.nothing more than that.What he doesn't do is ride the bubble to the maximum...so in effect he is yesteryears trader.
his approach is effective but not 100% efficient.
We now live in a world dominated by boom and bust,the days of steady-as-she-goes are gone.The successful investor will have knowledge of boom/bust psychology and exploit it to its greatest extent.
Realistbear
May 14 2006, 01:54 PM
Builders and their role as an indicator of the market, Dr. Bubb may be right:
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/b...4bonds0514.htmlKB Home, Pulte bonds slipping
Mark Pittman
Bloomberg News
May. 14, 2006 12:00 AM
NEW YORK - Home-builder bonds, among last month's best-performing debt, are slumping as rising interest rates slow orders at companies such as KB Home and Pulte Homes Inc.
The extra yield investors demand to hold junk bonds of construction companies instead of government debt widened 7 basis points this month as the average premium for high-risk, high-yield bonds narrowed by 16 basis points, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. Home-builder debt last month outperformed Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds.
The slide surprised some investors who as recently as April bet the worst of the U.S. housing slump was over.
Bonds dropped after Toll Brothers Inc., the largest U.S. developer of luxury homes, and Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., New Jersey's biggest builder, reported that orders fell at least 20 percent.
The Federal Reserve raised rates Wednesday, its 16th straight increase, and said its outlook for the housing market is for a "gradual cooling."
Van
May 14 2006, 09:56 PM
QUOTE(vinny @ May 13 2006, 04:28 PM) [snapback]375343[/snapback]
I FEEL as if that is what was nearly being said to me recently Sine.
Goldbug conversion - yep - I LOVE the feel of gold / the weight of it in my hand. I will keep my remaining holding (It's tiny anyway) regardless if I can. I will add to my pile at a pace that suits me IF the time is right.
Or you could just invest in a gold tracker. Far more practical, but perhaps not quite a dreamy
DrBubb
May 16 2006, 04:35 PM
BROKEN... AND BRIGHT RED
Things aren't going well at all for the Builders. Virtually all are breaking down with volume.
I would say the light that was flashing Amber is NOW BRIGHT RED.
The best the Bulls can hope for is that this is a False Break, and that the prices will scurry quickly back above the breakpoint. But that looks unlikely.
This
chart of Wimpey, is an example of how awful they look now.
DrBubb
May 18 2006, 07:00 AM
WHAT is this telling us about Sentiment Towards Property Investing?
HPC Ranking ...
update
SP Ranking ...
update
SP Ranking peaked at the end of January, and has been steadily declining.
And it has fallen steeply in May- Have the Piggies been flying towards the exits?
Meantime, HPC shows a slow, steady rise in popularity.
jonathan trees
May 18 2006, 07:17 AM
Dr Bubb,
I see that you are still posting your pointless graphs and your retarded drivel. You seem to have alot of time on your hands spending every day going on numerous internet forums and posting your usual pathetic rubbish.
The era of low house prices are over forever. House prices will never crash. Things really are different this time and the recent emergence of the BTL landlords will ensure that the demand for property remains strong which will keep propery prices high.
Even if house prices started to fall today, by how much would they drop? Back to 2004 levels? House prices will still be very high and no amount of moaning and whinging is going to do anything about it.
Many claim that the lack of first time buyers will cause house prices to fall but the property market has changed and first time buyers are no longer needed to prop up the housing market since the market is now being supported by the BTL landlords.
House prices are predicted to double in the next five years. There are plenty of "For Sale" boards up around here and a lot of them also have big SOLD stickers across them, Also I have 3 friends whom have also just bought homes (FTBs). People are now just resigned to the fact that house prices are expensive now and thats just the way it is going to be for the foreseeable future.
DrBubb
May 18 2006, 09:52 AM
And YOU talk about drivel !
I should think you would have the good grace to admit that I have scored a bullseye,
and that property sentiment is now fast-unraveling
DrBubb
May 18 2006, 04:52 PM
UGLY DAY for the Builders...
BDEV : 844.0p -45.5p - 5.1%
WMPY: 436.5p -19.5p -4.3%
PSN- : 1148.0p -53.0p -4.4%
FTSE: 5,6771.6 - 3.9 - 0.1%
DrBubb
May 19 2006, 10:10 PM
THE FADING of Singing Pig is a sign that Interest in Property investing on the part of potential
BTL landlords has already peaked, and appears to be ebbiing away fast

Who will buy expensive newbuilds, if potential landlords have woken up, and see that yields are too low in a time of rising global rates?
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