Forget Iran, which is a smoke screen. I have solid reasons to believe that we are in the early stages of a run on the US dollar and consequent global financial turmoil.

Protect yourselves.

and the reasons are?

Not that I'm doubting you I just want to see if they are the same reasons I have.

But are you suggesting that people should buy at $670 an ounce ??

I've got 15% in Gold and my last purchase wasn't too long ago. I could consume any profit I have so far made in the spread on Gold and sleep easy knowing I can resell for no loss with a small %safety margin. But buying at 670 / ounce is insane isn't it ?

Any other buyers on here (old hands) like to comment ?

AF.

Yes I agree Mate Im fully loaded like you with Gold and Silver.God help the punters out there.

Gold and Silver are rocking and rolling Tonight - somat's up

Ex-Fed Chief Volcker: Most Dangerous Economy Ever

Only one thing will kill gold, and that is positive real interest rates. Unfortunately the global economy is so addicted to debt that such a measure would destroy it and send the entire world into the mother of all depressions.

Since the infamous M3 announcement in november last year it is evident, and gold is confirming it, that inflationary policy with increasingly negative real rates has been chosen. Central bankers will only resort to positive real rates when faced with meltdown of the international fiat currency system.

You mean base rates higher than GENUINE inflation / increase in money supply? I suppose that depends on what you believe genuine inflation is and where it will go.

There's a risk involved Cgnao. And that risk has to be balanced against any REAL risk to my capital, spread thinly across many financial institutions and some with national savings. If someone said that I could double my money overnight with almost ZERO risk, I'd dive in... but that's not the case. Again and again I ask... you're not just risk managing are you? You're speculating, right? I'd personally be happy seeing what I've saved in cash buy the house it could have bought 7 years ago... Products such as inflation-linked savings certificates would probably protect the masses from the worst of any inflation... and I have some Gold now - but the next sum of money I potentially play with would be around a year's salary (net) and that's a frightening prospect to me. Do you suggest I pile it on Gold now at $670 an ounce? Rewind to justa few weeks ago and everyone was saying $560 was looking "toppy". Or do you really think we're at the gates of apocalyptic event?

I wish I had bigger b*lls.

AF.

Not really, they are linked to an artificial measure of inflation (RPI) which although arguably not as fudged as CPI still understates the true inflation picture.

Its much easier sitting on your hands during a correction after you have seen your initial investment rise 30%, when you are newly invested and just starting to cover your spread you feel every dollar as if it is being wrenched out of your pocket.

I sadly see that I failed to convey my message.

It's not speculation, not about doubling my money (and that of those I am helping). It's about preserving its purchasing power and not seeing it inflated to zilch.

I sit on a 100% position in gold, mostly bought at bargain basement prices which will never ever be seen again, but as far as I am concerned I have not made a profit. Gold is not increasing in value. It's rather paper currencies and assets denominated in paper currencies being debased.

You guys holding cash and paper assets now, in these market conditions, are running the biggest financial risk of all without realising.

Learn from history:

"Lenin was certainly right, there is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose." - John Maynard Keynes

Protect yourself.

I dont' know what to say other than simply:

I've been waiting for some kind of pullback since december when everyone said it'll settle. But it didn't.

Got in at the end of march and last week. Already made up the spreads.

NGNao, don't you find it fascinating that this soaring of gold is not getting an iota of media notice? Not even here in the UK, where the get-rich-quick mentality is more highly developed than most countries (actually, it pretty much is our economy these days).

There still appears to be little public awareness of what is going on. This means the price must be going up because of big-time private investors, institutions and governments. Have you (or anybody else) got any more info on this? Actually, I am astonished by just how little awareness of anything there is amongst my working colleagues. The mainstream does a very good job of keeping them ignorant.

I am anguishing over whether to get some more or wait for a pull-back. The trouble is, like others I've lost out waiting for a pull-back that hasn't happened.

Imagine what will happen when Joe Public get onto this.

I bought in November last year, having pulled 20 years worth of accessable savings (not all my saving by means, just the easily accessable stuff) out of the Stock Market. Since then I have been saving hard into cash as well. I could transfer those crash savings into Gold, but Gold has higher risks associated with it, higher than I am prepared to carry on all my accessable savings.

I moved into Gold because I wanted higher returns (hence greater risk) but I also wanted to spread the risks as I have been hurt by Stock Market Crashes before (in the sence that had I cashed in at the time I would have lost big time).

I agree with many on here that Gold is heading to new heights. Now that the $ is under pressure Gold will rise fast (in $ terms, not so fast in £ terms). That may hit the headlines and there was a post a few days ago that said that the US networks are now reporting the value of Gold on a daily basis. I think there is a real possibility that some of that huge liquidity that is slopping around the markets will head into Gold, if it does $1000 / tr oz could be an under estimate!

Calling the top is going to be tough, and I will admit, it scares me somewhat. This is the first time I have played the market is a serious manner, Twenty Years worth of savings is big money regardless of the amount. (My wife will kill me if I loose it ).

In short, Gold is where the big returns are going to be, but there are big risks. The market will move up pretty quick, but it could turn in a moment, hence why I am spreading my savings across the markets.

Help please Cgnao

As a UK earner and spender why will my paper devalue if there is inflation in the system and interest rates have to rise here and EU to keep it under control.

Not clear on why my asset base will not be preserved.



FP

Gold is now less than £5 away from AN ALL TIME HIGH against sterling.

The current record is £372. History is likely to be made in the next few days.

Will this get a mention in the media? I doubt it.

The really depressing thing is 99%+ of the population fail to grasp that if the currency is debasing, it means that every abstract paper investment is crashing in real terms.

Unless you're making 30%+ a year on your stocks, shares, t-bonds, other paper investments. They are not holding their own.

The media is demonises gold as a 'barbarus relic', that only 'stupid' people would invest in it.

Meanwhile a $200 trillion global derivatives bubble is a wonderful thing we should be thankful for, created by those clever banks.

The elites are getting ready for peak oil. Look what they're doing, they're taking care of themselves. They're going to leave us to hang.

Protect yourself now, before it's too late.

But of course this has been done time again throughout the ages (Henry VIII's 'coppernose'), if people actually noticed then they couldn't get away with it. The 70's were interesting, people noticed the affects but not the cause... Nixon closing the gold window and debasing en masse.

Quite!

Cgnao - if, right now, you had your paper money still sat in a bank somewhere, would you buy today at $675 an ounce ? How much would you spend ? All of it? And by all of it, I assume you;re taking about a five figure sum ? Or more ?

Here's an analogy to the apocalyptic "Peak Oil" (et al) scenario people use for Gold prices. Moore's law. Doubling of the number of transistors on a chip every 18 months (at its peak). How many years have Intel not been able to make chips in any commercially viable quantity that run faster than 3.x GHZ ??? 3 years now ? "End of the western economy as we know it, they said". What happens? Chip designers and manufacturers revive the "must do more in parallel" philosophy and just keep going.. dual core Pentiums, etc, etc. No apocalyptic outcome.

It is troublesome though, if you cannot shrink the dies faster than you're doubling them then eventually you're on an unsustainable trend.

I think the exponential pace of computer improvement (in instructions per second per dollar) is continuing to increase, as you say, with no halt at the clock rate limit.

I must say, that my take on the future of the world economy is extremely bright. But I do think when it grows naturally, as in most of nature, it massively contracts before it massively expands. (Think of childbirth as an example of a natural process.) The government's current strictures have rigidly overexpanded the last long kondratieff expansion past its natural limit to a large, diseased hollow structure of weak tissue.

A massive collapse is needed to rebase, destroy unsound investment, wipe out unwise investors, and make ready for the next big push with all the resources correctly placed with the prudent, wise and productive.

As some here may know, my own portfolio has VASTLY outperfomed property.
It is invested in Junior Resource shares, and I continue to find good opportunities there.

I still prefer Gold shares to Gold;

+ You can get better leverage: a 10% rise in gold might give you 20 -30% rise in gold shares,
+ You can still find relative bargains: a stock i bought 3-4 weeks ago is up about 200% in under a month,
+ If you participate in private placements, you often get free warrants too, which gives you even more exposure to the upside

I don't post here much anymore, and discuss these issues, and individual stocks in some detail
on GEI. You are welcome to visit

l chucked this years isa allowance (7k) straight into Meryll Lynch Gold fund. Couldnt get the cheque posted fast enough as far aas l was concerned.

I was talking with a friend about gold a year ago, but despite missing out on those gains l still did it. Why? Well l have grave doubts about the true value of my cash holdings, especially for the future and l think we are in for some interesting times (forget Iran).

I simply trusted my instincts and acted accordingly. If you really believe then you'd buy gold. I've also tried to get into some silver juniors as despite appearing to be more subject to market manipulation it seems rather low in comparison to gold. I wonder how long "they" can keep a lid on it.

I think the ML Gold Fund holds a fair few miners, even the juniors, so you should have exposure anyway. Of course the miners hold an advantage over holding bullion, there are yields!

They also have operational risk. Which is not insubstantial when you think mining is a fairly energy
intensive activity. And currency instability and general uncertainty makes any business difficult to run.

I'd also be concerned about market manipulation.

Six times as much paper gold out there than physical gold, in a very similar way to fractional reserve banking.

I expect nothing less than total systemic collapse.

"Gold is screaming danger"

Probably - But it's screaming "overbought" at the moment.

Brave enough to short it?

I think golds sudden drop from $675 then bounce off $660 Today shows the strength of this gold bull. It was an ideal opportunity for the bears to punish gold but they were unable to drive it down with any momentum.

Todays drop in Silver was more spectacular as the large players eagerly grabbed silver from frightened small investors to cover their shorts. I suspect we will see more of this action over the comming months before they have loaded up their longs and are ready to let gold and silver continue their rally.

only with someone else's money

That dip lasted all of 5 minutes before it stated to rise again.

http://www.uruknet.info/?p=m23009&l=i&size=1&hd=0

if gold is screaming overbought then what about the DOW JONES.Look at a 50 year chart,you see the ramp up through the latter part of the 80's and 90's,then a pullback,and now we are approaching crunch time as it re-tests the old high.

...it looks like a MASSIVE double top forming.....strong possibility this could slide back to long term average(7k ish) when everyone is expecting the opposite....I AM NOT BULLISH ON THIS INDEX!!!!!

You know Oracle, I had a shiver of truth feeling when I read that. (Not that I would recommend that as a personal basis for investing.)

Any form of truth nevermind a "shiver" is usually a luxury for most people when it comes to investing.

Flashback to 30 January 2006, with a snippet by the mytical Richard Russell.



Do you think something has changed since? I don't.

Protect yourselves.

Not so sure I agree - the way I read the charts I see DJIA hitting an all-time high in 2006, closing the year well above 12,000. Consider what happened to the MERV in Argentina when their currency collapsed...

An interesting article, but do you think it could just be a part of the threats/negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions ? "Sometime next week" could have added "unless the US backs off". Interested to get your views.

Metals on fire. Volatility increasing. USD is doomed. $675 gold and 85 USD index currently being desperately defended. Further price acceleration in the pipeline if broken decisively.

Dollar's just gone vertically through £1.85, something's up.

Any idea what's happening to the USD? Gold's up another $8... it doesn't look as though it's stopping. Temporary peek this summer because of Iran? Or is something else up?

Petrol prices all over the Daily Show (More 4 + 1 now)...

The ECB is way behind the curve. If they find themselves in a position to raise rates in bigger steps as suggested in the article below (possibly forced by an exploding gold price), it will spell disaster for the USD, the bond and stock markets.

Remember, paper currencies will only stop depreciating against gold when real interest rates become positive. With euro M3 growing well in excess of 8% and interest rates still at 2.5%, we are far far away from that condition. The US stopped reporting M3 last month.

[attachmentid=3179]

Not just $... £, Eur, CHF all currencies are going down against gold

Now you see it. NOW you see it.

Protect yourselves. This is just the beginning.

Cgnao

Any chance of a reply?

It doesn't seem to be being controlled in the UK by means of interest rate rises.

You need to get hold of something that keeps pace with your rising energy, fuel bills, council tax etc.

The gap between the value of my gold shares and the house I'd like to buy is closing nicely.

I can't see this gold bull just stopping in its tracks just yet. But I'm only a few mouseclicks away from being 100% cash so no sweat really.

You can over analyse this gold thing. For now it's a bull market. One day it won't be. I love bubbles - I'm gutted I missed the house price one.

Got it. Thanks! FP

"The gap between the value of my gold shares and the house I'd like to buy is closing nicely"

Exactly.
Having sold a property and repaid a 50% debt to buy Gold shares,
and am now counting the number of debt-free properties my mining investments could buy.

"Property is Boring"

Its so boring that I now spend more time on this investment section than I do on the main discussion of HPC.

For me its got to the stage where gold rising is more interesting than house prices falling.

The propaganda (what they want you to think):

Dow Less Than 185 Pts. From All-Time High
Friday May 5, 1:21 pm ET
By Christopher Wang, AP Business Writer
Stocks Rally on Slowing Job Growth; Dow Less Than 185 Points Away From All-Time High

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060505/wall_street.html?.v=4


The harsh reality:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$IND...id=p70489582360

Protect yourselves.

Ditto

It's not enough to merely hope that house prices will fall. Regrettably they're not doing what most of thought they'd do so for me investment is my plan B. There will be no restoration of justice for savers for a long time yet. ING etc. is money shrinkage. You have to be smarter. I'm fighting not to be a victim.

I'm staggered at the huge contrast between the "conventional" financial reporting of main stream news outlets like the BBC and the starkly contrasting views found on websites like The Daily Reckoning and R H Assett Management.

Declan Currie and Jim Puplava - you'd think they were from different planets

One for the financially savvy.

I reference Cgnao's "fundamental" on Gold price. Real interest rates must be higher than inflation for the Gold price to fall.

Okay - I can see this. And I can see a LOT of other factors that make Gold a bull market.

My problem is that this is all "shades of grey" (or gray for our American viewer).

Let's assume Cgnao is correct, and inflation being higher than interest rates is the cause of a rising Gold price. I've had a look at M4 over the past 8 years. It's always been at around 8%. I know interest rates have been higher (98, 99, 2000.. whenever they started being cut) than they are now. But its not a factor of ten is it? It's not even a doubling, although...

12% M4 up from an average of 8% over a good few years... and base rates at 4.5% compared to what? 6%? So what do we conclude? Money supply increased by 1.5x, interest rates at 75% of their historical average. So maybe the factor to be worried about is 1.5 / 0.75 = 2. And it's been going on for a year or two, so the effect has built up over time? Too much money sloshing around ? Do these rates over a couple of years add up to something significant and dangerous ?

Or is it the fact that M4 is increasing ?? And interest rates really need to be cut to prop up spending and save the housing market, but these two are in conflict ? So are people predicting the "end" based on trend or is masive inflation a done deal now ?

Just trying to justify the fundamentals...

AF.