Econmic theory and doom mongering aside.

Where is the house price crash? Where is cruise crash speed?

Despite your need for a HPC, it hasn't happened yet and despite the fact that I think prices will fall in 2006, I'm afraid to say that I think your house price christmas day may be a long time coming.

Surely there is only so many times you can tell yourself "There will be a crash, there will be a crash".

I think it's time to agree:

"House prices may fall but not by the same amount and not accross the board"

Admit it people or you stand a good chance of looking foolish :-)))

And only a short while ago, people like you were saying houses only ever go up.

Blah blah blah, boring, awooga etc etc bleurgh!

NDL

Of course they don't fall by the same amount or accross the board..


I have seen massive discounts against new builds.. and they are still empty..

and two more large estates getting built..

can't imagine who is going to move in..
Older smaller homes are selling.. two bed terraces..

but larger homes are languishing. very badly
Is the ladder broken.??
Mervin King siad that it would be by very low inflation and I guess massive house prices don't help either

You can make a reasonable point without sounding so smug ya know, Just try it. There are plenty who contribute on here who, despite the forum title, do not believe in the crash scenario, more a long term drawn out torture as deflationary pressures come to bear and cause economic stagnation is my take. You do not have to be so imflammatory....however it`s fun I suppose, if the tack hadn`t been tried a hundred times before that is

Not that old chestnut again

Wrong.

Read my previous posts.

In fact, I will state now that less than 80% of properties will see prices falls.

Silly billy london newbuild flat owners will run the fastest.

It might be time to toughen up, stop tittle tattling about you said this he said that and face facts.

Sorry


I get most of my cheap properties from people wanting to sell quickly.

And at the moment, they aren't.

They are risking placing their properties on the open market and on average are achieving 93 - 96% of the original agents valuation.

Not bad for them.

Bad for you lot.

And me!

don't forget that in times where inflation was not being strictly managed house prices did not fall.
but the economy did suffer such catastrophic inflation that affodability was achieved..
but in a way that Mervin King has taken great pains to ensure that we know inflation will not rescue again.
Three times that housing market has failed, and it has done so after every boom. Only once did prices actually fall.
That was last time.
and we have been promised that this time it will be worse

Well it`s not our fault you aint earning any money, can`t you claim unemployment benefit.

There's a thin line between bravery & stupidity... are you brave?

Not sure if the Merv bit is strictly tru. I think he said that inflation and IRs will remain low for the foreseeable future, but he saw them rising once the China/India thing unwinds.

Here in Bingley 10% (that's 25% of the expected crash) is being lopped-off the prices of properties on a regular basis.

You seem to imply that we expect the crash to happen in one almighty 'Black Monday' type event. We don't. It'll happen over years. Part of it will be property prices falling, and part of it will be wages rising. We won't actually see prices fall by the percentages being talked about, what will happen is wages will rise and things will settle in the region of average house price = 3 times average salary, the higher wages giving the impression of a larger drop in house prices than has actually happened. That's what I believe anyway. Could be 5-8 years though before we reach that point.

The doom-mongers are the one who seem to think that high prices are good for the economy and people.

You may not have noticed that the economy has slowed down dramatically, and unemployment is now rising.
It's cyclical, always has been and always will be.

Best you rather keep looking after the kids.

Question - did anyone here really notice the 92" recession? Did it affect you day to day life.

I bet it didnt if 1) You had little debt or borrowing 2) You did not live beyond your means 3) You had a few brain cells.

"And we have been promised that this time it will be worse" - If you sit there shit*ing yourself, believing everything that they tell you, unwilling to move and adjust then, yes, there will be a MASSIVE house price crash, and YES the sky will fall in.

NO ONE can predit EVERYTHING correctly 100% of the time and this is the funniest thing.

The general premise on this board is that you lot can.

:-))))






Never. I prefer being out there earning a wage by using my wits and not whinging about how bad things are or will become




Yes.If i was stupid I'd spend my time posting cra* on message boards about what MAY be.




10% of prices on a regular basis - is that daily, weekly, monthly yearly?

The second paragraph just confirms that there probably wont be a crash.

And that's why the sub-title is

"it ain't happening people"?

My experience is that prices are falling--up to 20% in the small area where I'm looking. Also, houses are definitely staying on the market longer. (That's because the prices are still too high.)

Are some homes selling? Sure. Some people always buy at the top of markets. But the prices are definitely down and properties are taking longer to move than they were 2 to 3 years ago, when I started looking to buy.

So, frankly, I don't care what you think--or do.

Not even worth a response. What's that noise I can hear? durrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

im not having a pop here but when you say wages will be rising i dont see that happenning if the average wage is £30,000 pa inflation @2% £600 approx wage increases over the next five years = £3000 btw im in the construction game i was earning as much 5 years ago as wat im earning now the boom is well and truly over .when joe public realise this only then will we see significant downward movement in house prices every dog has its day . what i cant understand is why bulls hang around this site if they are so sure prices aint dropping or going to drop ?as ttrtr hes gotta be the strangest thing on this forum with his stupid avatar what a pr1ck

I love that phrase, doom mongering.

Cambridge dictionary says;

-monger
suffix MAINLY DISAPPROVING
a person who encourages a particular activity, especially one which causes trouble:

So we're encouraging the activity of doom.

Top quality game, yay us.

BTW did you happen to have any Amazon shares in 2000?

Okey dokey - wheres your area?

Have prices fell 20% or are the falling UP TO 20%? Give us a central postcode and let us do the work with nethouseprices and rightmove and find out the truth.

In my area properties are moving much slower, more like normal levels as opposed to 03' - 04' levels, but they are still selling and for close to valuation.

Admit it - you cannot generalise about any free market.

Only a fools says: "No crash yet, mean No Crash ever"

Is that what you are suggesting?
Answer me this:
How long can irresponsible ultra-aggressively lending last?
Answer that, and I will tell you when the market will be headed into a sharp slide

No. Not one. Never been into shares.

Did own some wonderfully profitable properties though.

DBT, regarding your avatar \ banner - should it also read "Shares for people, not for profit". How about "Shops for people, not for profit". Or how about "Ebay for people, not for profits"

:-))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

there is still a lot of life left in the market yet. one of the estate agents whom i visit had their best ever month recently with over 40 offers accepted in 1 week(40 different houses). i don't know how the offers compared to asking prices, but over 40 in 1 week! one of my other clients is just about to add another 6 properties to his btl porfolio. madness i know, but lots of life left. it could be a long time before we see a uniform downturn.

Bubb,

Although i respect your views, this is YOUR board on HPC so why are you asking me to predict things.

Your overwhelming generalisations may be your downfall.

Just as you didn't predict the rises 96' to 2001', you cant predict the falls.

Classic....now go to bed.

Not a classic as I do not base my current plans on what may be. Only what is.

1st April onwards looks to be another profitable property related year.

And, I can stay up as I work from home when I need to which isnt too often.

Fine...so why start the thread in the first place??







Bet your Dad's bigger than mine as well....Jesus.

Goodbye. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I shouldnt really bite on this..it only encourages that dumb "prices-will-go-up-forever" type of negativity.
But what the hell....

BUT......

Huh? I dont get what youre trying to say - there will be a crash, but different houses will lose different amounts.
Or there wont be a crash if different houses lose different amounts but only across 75% of the country?
Which is it?

A crash will not happen in a day and will not be visible after a week.
It will be visible to most only in retrospect. (Like when you try to sell a place and it wont shift.)
The trick is to see it, not necessarily before it happens, but at the very leastwhen its happening.
Youre obviously too busy fluffing your opinions to see that we're right in it at the moment.

You are a legend.
This is the HPC quote.
I bet this quote is gonna go down in history like the "there is no hurricane" or "there are no American troops in Bagdhad".

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO US!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm afraid the denial is all coming from the bulls.

The market is finding ever more desperate ways of defying gravity, but I think we're starting to see all the endgames more clearly now.

Here’s a sketchy potted history of the last 6 years or so of lunacy for starters:

FTBs max possible mortgage unable to keep up with prices - lenders increase the multiples for FTBs.
BTL kicks off in a big way
FTB repayments starting to get horrendous - Lenders encourage interest only loans
House prices increase some more
BTL in full swing
FTB max possible mortgage falling short again - Lenders turn a blind eye to dodgy self certs
House prices increase some more
FTBs now dwindling - Government encourages shared equity schemes
House prices increase just that little bit more
BTL no longer profitable, landlords treading water
FTBs now desperate – lenders offer 45yr mortgages, and expect huge deposits
FTBs tell lenders exactly where they can stick their mortgage offers

So where do we go from here?

House prices go up
FTBs extinct
BTL now making a loss
Rents go up
Wages go up
Inflation goes up
Interest rates go up
BTL now making a loss again
Rents go up
Wages go up
Inflation goes up
Interest rates go up
Chinese and Indian economies tap GB plc on the shoulder and say “remember us”
Bull wakes up from dream in a cold sweat

Or how about this scenario…

House prices go up
FTBs extinct
BTL now making a loss
Rents go up
Wages can’t increase due to cheap foreign labour
Consumer spending collapses as all income spent on rent
Economy goes into recession
HPC!!!!

Or this one…

House prices stay static
IRs creep up very slowly
BTLs now making a net loss, other investment types more profitable
BTLs bail out
HPC!!!

Or how about…house prices achieve the mythical ‘soft landing’

IRs stay low
Inflation stays low
BTLers making no profit, and seeing no increase in equity
BTLers run out of capital for further purchases (not that there’s any point since there’s now no money to be made by increasing the portfolio)
FTBs still happily renting, or still saving up the 50K deposit for that studio flat over the chippy
Bottom end of market collapses
HPC!!!

So please, all the bulls out there – what mythical scenario am I missing where you all live happily ever after?

Becuse it was you guys that thought that you could \ can generalise about the property market hence HPC.

Your right, he is.

And don't leave your electric blanket plugged in. You know it's dangerous.



Shamus & Take The Blow

Yeah, I did notice the 92 recession thanks. I got on with my life and new career, bought a flat, then saw it drop in value by 60%.

So what would you have had me do to avoid financial ruin? Not buy at all and continue renting perhaps? Silly me, surely not, because that's what all these idiot bears are suggesting today isn't it?

You started the topic with a generalisation then contradicted yourself saying that you cant generalise.


Are you for real???


I know I shouldn't rise to it but this guy's UNBELIEVEABLE!!


Probably a classic case of someone who's made money during the biggest property boom the world has ever seen and now thinks he's some kind of genius.

Trouble is your too thick to realise how thick you are.......where's Jeremy Beadle? I know your here somewhere.


I really am going now....before I have an aneurysm

"House prices may fall but not by the same amount and not accross the board" - True. They may fall but not at the same rate (if at all) accross the board.

"In fact, I will state now that less than 80% of properties will see prices falls" - True.

"Admit it people or you stand a good chance of looking foolish :-)))" - True, you do.

What I am saying is that there may well be a crash if you bought a £350,000 1 bed appartment off plan overlooking the Thames but that if you bought a 2 bed ex authority flat for £30,000 in 1999 which is currently worth £72,000 which has given a rent of £495 pcm for the past 4 years then you may find that the worst of the crap predicted on this board will fly past you at 100 miles an hour without even ruffling your hair .

Tis true. I am a legend. Look back in 2015 and see the truth.

Didn't you know? This country doesn't need doctors, teachers, shopworkers etc. We can all just become property developers and sell houses to each other for ever and ever!!

No, no, no, I started the topic stating that the predicted crash isn't happening. 40% reductions. No. Period.

Not a generalisation, just a fact.

I then went on to point out, yet again, that you cannot generalise about any crash (should it ever happen) because, just as you cannot predict (with any guarantee) the movements of the financial markets, you cannot accurately predict the movements of the property market.

If I am wrong and you are right, what have you spent your £10,000,000 profit made in the rising property market since 1994 on?

I'm no genius but then again I do not set up websites claiming I am

And by the way, you shouldnt joke about aneurysm's - it's not right.

For me in Norfolk it's all peachy, 4% down by halifax standards and for the last month we have the biggest supply of houses if the EDP property mag is anything to go by.

We have had massive reductions on the previous quarter in many areas.

So, the crash could start in Norfolk or many areas in the country. We will see, and the main point for me is I'm saving 10%ish of a house value if prices stay still. I'm expecting further drops so maybe 15 - 20% this year if the drop continues or accelerates. And all the time saving and not paying interest on a dodgy loan.

If this is the position you take then, in general, I actually agree with you.
But yer posts werent clear - I thought you were in HPC denial.

I was under the impression that a large proportion of people here could technically afford to buy but weren't since they saw it is bad value. I mean why buy when interest payments alone are more than rent on a similar property? Why buy with no prospect of HPI and high probability of falls?

I cant believe this one got past everyone else without some recognition.

One of the best ends to a post I have read in a long time

TB

Hindsight dear fellow, hindsight.

I think what will happen is that wage inflation will speed up as people become increasingly impatient with their stingy employers... let's face it, with utility bills rocketing the way they are, there isn't going to be much choice before long. Otherwise, with a lack of wage inflation, the market will become increasingly starved of buyers and will be forced lower than might otherwise be the case.

Mr.Troll says:
"Bubb,
Although i respect your views, this is YOUR board on HPC"
(Not true- i am rather bored with the so-called "debate" here right now)

" so why are you asking me to predict things."
(You are critical of others- Why dont you try?
I am more interested in making money that worrying about getting the day, week, or month
of the top right. I AM making money. The right decision was to sell property and buy gold YEARS
ago. Which is what I did. Why not TELL US what you are doing??)

LATK-Do you have a monster double chin when you smile?

The fact is that house prices have started falling in many parts of England. The ripple effect still present in Northern Ireland and Scotland keeps the market rising slightly there, as well as new money which has recently come in to London.

Where I want to buy - prices are falling.

And that is only with a relatively small increase in IRs from 3.5% - 4.5% in 2 years. The market turned.

We still only have a slow correction, not a full-scale crash going on, I would agree. But it's only going to take a few more IR rises to change sentiment fairly quickly.

I would not want to be a "homeowner" right now. I'm keeping my precious savings in the bank and keeping my options open about where I want to spend the future.

That's sensible. Lookingafterthekids is a troll.

I'm not going to say where I'm looking, because it's a very small area and I'd rather not broadcast it. I shouldn't have said 20%, however. I just did the math on several of the properties (offering vs. selling price), and it's more like 10% - 12%. Those are falls from 2004 asking prices.

I agree. You can't generalize. That's why I don't really care what your opinion is about the housing market. I'm just keeping track of prices in my area, and when they get back to the equivalent of what they were in 2001, I'll purchase. If they don't, I'll keep on renting. I'm not going to waste my money.

The market is so much different now than it was in 2004, when I first found this site. At that time, I could hardly get an estate agent to talk with me. They were able to sell homes quickly--and usually over the asking price. I couldn't get over to England fast enough to look at a house before it was sold. No longer.
Estate agents have plenty of time for me (I'm a cash buyer), and I've had owners almost plead with me to buy their homes. (One lovely couple took me out to dinner.) Prices are down and homes are on the market longer. Yes, they are still selling, but the owners are sweating.

In the States, bubble talk is pretty widespread and most people I know are bracing for it. In England, people seem to be in denial. I think much of the difference in attitudes has to do with how the press is handling the subject. On this particular topic, the American press seems to be much more objective, with less VI spin.

Anyway, let's see what's happening at this time next year. I think both the British and the American economies are in for very bumpy rides. I've prepared myself. I hope you have, too.

[quote name='lookingafterthekids' date='Mar 23 2006, 10:32 PM' post='329534']
Wrong.

Read my previous posts.

In fact, I will state now that less than 80% of properties will see prices falls.

Silly billy london newbuild flat owners will run the fastest.

It might be time to toughen up, stop tittle tattling about you said this he said that and face facts.

Sorry
I get most of my cheap properties from people wanting to sell quickly.

And at the moment, they aren't.

They are risking placing their properties on the open market and on average are achieving 93 - 96% of the original agents valuation.

Not bad for them.





So a very precise 80% will rise or stay the same you say. two questions: is this in real or inflation adjusted terms? How do you arrive at this 80% figure (or did you just make it up)?

I regret to say that I agree. I joined the forum as a casual observer, not knowing what direction prices would take, but was convinced by the Bear arguments.

I think we've had the correction, for what it was worth, and that prices will now stagnate for the next 3 years or so, allowing wages to close the gap a bit.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.

I keep seeing threads like this, we've had all of two weeks of.. well not even bullish news really, yes it has been reported that prices have risen, but come on how can everyone change thier minds in 1- 2 weeks. All it says to me is that you were just sheep in the first place.

Yes prices reportedly have risen, alot of us were expecting a moderate short lived spring bounce, nothing has changed for the better economically, infact the economy just keeps getting worse and the presure to raise rates is comming from offshore.

Personally im laughing my a*se off at it all.

What has changed to make people think HPI will stay positive indefinatly ? - Nothing.

The more i read threads like this the more i think to myself that people are changing thier minds because other posters are telling them they are changing thier minds. How f*ckin weak can you get

Whats changed?

You write like you are Donald Trump, but if I look back to your earlier posts, I see that you own five properties (ex LA). Not exactly a tycoon. Does that include the one you live in?

Have you figured out what your LTV is yet?

Houses were overpriced three years ago and they are still overpriced today. Nothing has changed. The absence of a crash or correction so far proves nothing, but is has clearly lulled many rational people into believing that the problem has somehow gone away.

People are impatient by nature and expect too much, too soon. The current cycle isn't (and never was IMO) likely to bottom out until 2012 at the earliest. OK, some people called the market early - that does not mean that significant falls won't happen.

Big falls will occur once the over indebted start buckling in significant numbers. Many say that debt repayment is manageable - I beg to disagree. Many are now sliding further into debt each month as outgoings exceed income. You only need a few to succumb to push the economy into recession as the affected cut back on their discretionary spending. We are already seeing evidence of this along with the inevitable redundancies that follow in the wake.

"Ah!", I hear you say, "but they'll lower interest rates if things get any worse". Maybe I say, but without a job, interest rates of 0% are still too high.

Mark my words - debt will kill this 'miracle' economy. The only question is when.

In the meantime I'll beaver away increasing my net wealth each year while I wait for a better buying opportunity. No debt, complete mobility, financial freedom and steadily increasing wealth means that time is most definitely on my side. Inevitably, it’s the couple across the road with the shiny new car, 3x joint mortgage and baby on the way who’ll probably bear the brunt of the downturn when it arrives.

what I LOVE about these morons who come on here trying to 'taunt' us is that unwittingly (and lets face it, most of them have zero wits) they are promoting the crash.

The site is now ranked about 11,000th in the ENTIRE world, because thes enumpties keep on supplying fresh free content. And what do search engines love? Unique original content.

That's why HPC is rulin' the search engines for any number of property related terms, and why more and more people are coming here every day.

The fact that the threads start off with 'there wont be a crash' doesnt matter - these threads INSTANTLY turn into lucid explanations even a moronic estate agent could understand as to why the crash is upon us.

Thanks mongos! Keep 'writing articles' for HPC for free!!