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Realistbear
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/25012006/17/forget...uel-future.html

WORRIED about rising oil prices or the Russians turning off the gas? Then try coal. After 20 years in which Britain wrote off the black stuff as Arthur Scargill's legacy, and the UK power industry made a "dash for gas", coal is due for a major comeback. Advertisement

So far, the energy debate in the UK has centred on renewables versus nuclear power. However, coal is far cheaper than both and has the added advantage of being on our doorstep - dig a hole practically anywhere in Central Belt Scotland and you will find the stuff.

Globally, demand for coal has been skyrocketing as a substitute for dearer oil and gas in electricity generation, and because of increasing applications in modern steel production. Coal also comes from stable regions such as Australia and the United States. And with around 300 years worth of reserves globally, we are not about to run out of supplies.





It's looking good again and UKC has some take-over bid rumours flying around.
ExeC
QUOTE(Realistbear @ Jan 27 2006, 02:33 PM) [snapback]284705[/snapback]

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/25012006/17/forget...uel-future.html

WORRIED about rising oil prices or the Russians turning off the gas? Then try coal. After 20 years in which Britain wrote off the black stuff as Arthur Scargill's legacy, and the UK power industry made a "dash for gas", coal is due for a major comeback. Advertisement

So far, the energy debate in the UK has centred on renewables versus nuclear power. However, coal is far cheaper than both and has the added advantage of being on our doorstep - dig a hole practically anywhere in Central Belt Scotland and you will find the stuff.

Globally, demand for coal has been skyrocketing as a substitute for dearer oil and gas in electricity generation, and because of increasing applications in modern steel production. Coal also comes from stable regions such as Australia and the United States. And with around 300 years worth of reserves globally, we are not about to run out of supplies.

It's looking good again and UKC has some take-over bid rumours flying around.


where would the best investment be if you wanted to get into coal though ?

Coal miners?

Or is there something which tracks the price of coal ?
Realistbear
QUOTE(ExeC @ Jan 27 2006, 03:47 PM) [snapback]284786[/snapback]

where would the best investment be if you wanted to get into coal though ?

Coal miners?

Or is there something which tracks the price of coal ?



Shares in UK Coal. They are up 2.88% today. New technology has overcome the greenhouse problem:

http://www.worldcoal.org/pages/content/index.asp?PageID=19

And...the Chinese are going into it with the UK:

http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/news/nte60411.htm
Perfectionist
"And with around 300 years worth of reserves globally, we are not about to run out of supplies"

How is that 300 years calculated ??

According to present (very low) usage levels or future (very high, if oil runs out!) predicted levels ?

If there really is 3 centuries worth ..... maybe peak oil is just a scam to milk the price until the mass switch over to coal and coal derivatives ..... ???
Realistbear
Coal is getting a lot of attention lately:

http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=1171&id=115122006
Tue 24 Jan 2006
Energy review opens door for revival of coal, claims minister
GERRI PEEV
POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT
MINISTERS yesterday paved the way for a "renaissance" of the coal industry as they highlighted the risks of putting Britain at the mercy of unpredictable foreign regimes for energy supplies.

New "very exciting" technology would kick-start the beleaguered coal sector 20 years after it was wound down by the Thatcher government.


Price of UK Coal was up 3.24% last Friday. Might make a good medium to long term investment.
Mr_Sminty
QUOTE(Realistbear @ Jan 29 2006, 04:11 PM) [snapback]285837[/snapback]

Coal is getting a lot of attention lately:

http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=1171&id=115122006
Tue 24 Jan 2006
Energy review opens door for revival of coal, claims minister
GERRI PEEV
POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT
MINISTERS yesterday paved the way for a "renaissance" of the coal industry as they highlighted the risks of putting Britain at the mercy of unpredictable foreign regimes for energy supplies.

New "very exciting" technology would kick-start the beleaguered coal sector 20 years after it was wound down by the Thatcher government.


Price of UK Coal was up 3.24% last Friday. Might make a good medium to long term investment.



Good find and like the thinking, defo worth a little look in more detail. Cheers
Realistbear
UKC up again today to 1.46 (+1.74%). I think the idea of coal is catching on? Mining generally seems to have done well lately, especially Rio Tinto.
needle
Sorry, I dont buy any of this.
There may be a short-term rise in coal share prices but thats all it is.

I find it hard to believe that this would be in any way acceptable in a climate where the whole planet is looking for ways to reduce CO2 emmissions that people are going to start burning coal again.

Anyway, how would it solve transport problems?
Or electricity generation? How many coal fired power stations are left?
You think they're gonna build coal fired stations instead of nuclear? Not a chance.

This is, at best, hype; at worst, share ramping.
Sine270
Yes. I think its share ramping. How do I know? Well it worked on me and I decided to go in for a little punt. Not dissapointed yet either as it went up enough today to pay my dealing charges.
Realistbear
"I find it hard to believe that this would be in any way acceptable in a climate where the whole planet is looking for ways to reduce CO2 emmissions that people are going to start burning coal again."



http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/25012006/17/forget...uel-future.html
"For the record, clean coal is no longer an oxymoron. A host of new technologies is now available to reduce or eliminate and other pollutants emitted when burning coal. And guess where they are making this technology? Here in Scotland."




If you check out this link (posted above) you will see that coal is no longer the environmental problem it was 20 years ago. This why the Chinese and UK are going into it as a joint venture--China are aware of the pressure on them to clean up their air.

http://www.worldcoal.org/pages/content/index.asp?PageID=19


BTW--UKC up to 148.4 today.
Realistbear
Something must be going on--just checked UKCoal and its up 5.10% today. Hmmm, are HPC.co.uk members taking up positions? biggrin.gif

QUOTE(Sine270 @ Jan 30 2006, 08:22 PM) [snapback]286827[/snapback]

Yes. I think its share ramping. How do I know? Well it worked on me and I decided to go in for a little punt. Not dissapointed yet either as it went up enough today to pay my dealing charges.



Sine270, Feeling chuffed about now?
up 6.28% today (Wednesday, Feb 1st)

Someone took up a massive position in UK Coal at about 11 a.m. today causing a spike. Average numbers of shares traded almost tripled today:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UKC.L&t=1d

Is this blog that influential maybe?


Realistbear
Sine270
QUOTE(Realistbear @ Feb 1 2006, 03:49 PM) [snapback]288376[/snapback]

Something must be going on--just checked UKCoal and its up 5.10% today. Hmmm, are HPC.co.uk members taking up positions? biggrin.gif
Sine270, Feeling chuffed about now?
up 6.28% today (Wednesday, Feb 1st)

Someone took up a massive position in UK Coal at about 11 a.m. today causing a spike. Average numbers of shares traded almost tripled today:

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UKC.L&t=1d

Is this blog that influential maybe?
Realistbear


Nice one RB smile.gif Yes feeling quite chuffed about it but wishing I had bought more. Might start buying more though if the price keeps going up.
Got any more tips?
needle
Can't believe people are ramping shares like this (and the mods are ignoring it). This place is turning into a tip-sheet.

Where is the evidence for any of these assertions?
Whats this "new technology"?

Anyone buying shares based on anonymous and unsubstantiated tips on a website deserves to be hammered.

DYOR
Sine270
QUOTE(needle @ Feb 2 2006, 01:49 AM) [snapback]288818[/snapback]

Can't believe people are ramping shares like this (and the mods are ignoring it). This place is turning into a tip-sheet.

Where is the evidence for any of these assertions?
Whats this "new technology"?

Anyone buying shares based on anonymous and unsubstantiated tips on a website deserves to be hammered.

DYOR


But you probably think its okay for the VI's to ramp housing.

The difference is that certain shares are actually going up. Gold is going up. Are you saying that we shouldnt be allowed to discuss the increase in share prices?

Why do you have a problem with this?
Realistbear
QUOTE(needle @ Feb 2 2006, 01:49 AM) [snapback]288818[/snapback]

Can't believe people are ramping shares like this (and the mods are ignoring it). This place is turning into a tip-sheet.

Where is the evidence for any of these assertions?
Whats this "new technology"?

Anyone buying shares based on anonymous and unsubstantiated tips on a website deserves to be hammered.

DYOR



If you go to the links above you will find the articles on the "new technology" and why there has been recent press coverage. This blog covers such things as investments although it seems most are "ramping" gold at present. Coal is a very interesting subject IMHO as it offers us a re-discovered energy source that has become essential in view of world oil shortages.

new technology:

http://www.worldcoal.org/pages/content/index.asp?PageID=19
Mr_Nice
QUOTE(Realistbear @ Feb 2 2006, 09:52 AM) [snapback]288886[/snapback]

If you go to the links above you will find the articles on the "new technology" and why there has been recent press coverage. This blog covers such things as investments although it seems most are "ramping" gold at present. Coal is a very interesting subject IMHO as it offers us a re-discovered energy source that has become essential in view of world oil shortages.



Realistbear,

I do believe in coal having a strong future but at the risk of upsetting some vulnerable souls I suggest that one of the potentially explosive areas is coal liquification.

I have exposure to this through Molybdenum miners as MolyB is a key catalyst. Any thoughts?




Realistbear
QUOTE(Mr_Nice @ Feb 2 2006, 09:57 AM) [snapback]288891[/snapback]

Realistbear,

I do believe in coal having a strong future but at the risk of upsetting some vulnerable souls I suggest that one of the potentially explosive areas is coal liquification.

I have exposure to this through Molybdenum miners as MolyB is a key catalyst. Any thoughts?


Mr. Nice

I am sorry but I am no scientist and became interested in coal through a "gut instinct" that it may become viable again given the declining NS Oil reserves and oil reaching toward $100 bbl.

I checked Molybdenum on the net and it appears research was carried out sometime ago that found that coal used with this substance produced large usueable quantities of oil:

http://www.osti.gov/energycitations/produc...osti_id=6142698

"Coal liquefaction experiments were carried out in a stirred autoclave under nitrogen.^Tetralin was employed as solvent, and the catalyst, when used, was ammonium heptamolybdate (impregnated on coal) or stannous chloride (powdered).^Production of pentane soluble oil was higher in the runs with catalyst,"


There is little publicity about this at the moment which I think accounts for the low share price. The huge spike yesterday leads me to suspect there may be some institutional buying going on but I am no expert on how the market works either! The fact that the Chinese are interested tells me to buy shares.

I have just discovered this link--seems that the process is being "kept under wraps" for some reason:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/reser092205.html

MOLYBDENUM
……The Big SecretKen Reser, Sept. 21/05 (highlighted with my emphasis)

Subsequent to my previous report, "Molybdenum The 21st Century Metal" www.adanacmoly.com/articles/Moly_21st_Century_Metal-180KB.pdf I have done further extensive research for information on current and future uses of Molybdenum. This has been an undertaking of continual frustration & magnitude due to lack of mainstream information on this Noble Metal. Outside of the continual references to Molybdenum being used in stainless steel and other specialty metal alloys, fertilizers, lubricants and all the other uses I previously outlined in the 321 report (some of which are not reported in mainstream media) I have found what I consider the 'Big Secret' in regard to Molybdenum.

This so called secret involves considering that few people in the mining industry pay much attention to the Catalyst market for Molybdenum, if any at all. It is considered a small portion of the overall world demand in any charts, graphs or articles one may see and read. This is not the case as I see it from all of my own research. Consider why, when so many pundits and experts have continually called for the same dramatic and rapid decline in Molybdenum prices as we have seen in past when it spiked in price, that it has confounded all the predictions and has remained high for months on-end, all the while outliving those same wrongful predications. Today I believe there are little known, but yet profound changes afoot in the world of energy due to scientific discoveries in catalyst research that are outside the scope of most mainstream reports and articles on Molybdenum, and they are so dramatic and exciting that soon the entire Oil industry will soon be in shock. These changes being brought about by the new discoveries in the catalyst sciences involve coal, plastics and even used tires. The energy field I'm speaking of is 'Liquefaction'. In the 1950's and even earlier, Coal Liquefaction to produce fuel oils was known and studied in the USA, Germany, Japan and S Africa among others. Japan in 1940 produced 30,000 T of liquefied coal oil. Production continued until the end of WW2. Immediately after the end of the war the US military banned further research into coal liquefaction, alleging that it was military research. The process was costly and compared to the price of a barrel of Oil, not yet feasible. It has been stated that for Coal Liquefaction to be cost efficient and profitable, a barrel of crude must sell for $32.00. The Japanese have published reports stating $20.00 p/barrel. The better the catalyst functions, the higher the liquid yield rate becomes. Through international cooperation coal liquefaction has gone from the research stage to commercialization in Japan. Today China, Japan, Germany, Indonesia, & the USA have all embarked on projects with coal liquefaction. Before I continue with this discussion on the Liquefaction process tho, I would like to dwell on crude oil for a moment.


Now lastly before I return to the Coal Liquefaction aspect that gave inspiration for this report, you should realize that the global demand for Molybdenum rose by 7.2% in 2004 to 374 million lbs from 349 m/lbs in 2003 as outlined in a study commissioned by International Molybdenum PLC and performed by CRU Strategies Ltd. mining consultants. Further CRU states that conservatively Molybdenum demand thru 2009 will grow by 3.5% to 4.1% p/a and the projected demand will be up to 475 million lbs in the same year. They also (CRU) project a deficit in Molybdenum production in 2008 and as much as a 14 million lb deficit in 2009. The theory of the world entering a "Super Commodities Cycle" is supported by recent reports by Citigroup-Smith Barney (China - The Engine of a Commodities Cycle, March 31 /05) and Goldman Sachs (Metals & Mining March 21 /05) and US Energy (Oil March 30/05) and along with the likes of the renowned Jim Rogers I believe this super cycle in finite resources is well underway and will last for many, many years to come.


Now back to the Liquefacton portion of this report. The China Daily News online on the 03/12/2004 carried an interesting article on China's liquefaction projects. They stated in part that China has set up its first coal liquefaction research centre in Shanghai, a move to safeguard the nation's increasing oil supply shortage. The centre will explore and develop direct and indirect liquefaction technologies to produce gasoline & diesel fuel.

Mr_Nice
Thanks for your comments and that is an interesting piece.

I agree anything that the chinese are into has to be worthy of note. I will do some more research to see what uplift in price an increase in coal demand might give.

One concern is that there is so much of it that any increased incremental demand can easily be met. That is something i will look into.
Cheers
Realistbear
There is some very heavy trading in UK Coal this morning--already reached average trading volume this morning with 5 hours left to run. Anyone know what may be happening? It can't be HPC'ers affecting the volume---can it? Its not me!!!!
Sine270
QUOTE(Realistbear @ Feb 2 2006, 11:06 AM) [snapback]288932[/snapback]

There is some very heavy trading in UK Coal this morning--already reached average trading volume this morning with 5 hours left to run. Anyone know what may be happening? It can't be HPC'ers affecting the volume---can it? Its not me!!!!


Okay. I can accept responsibility for a tiny bit of it having bought a few more today.
After reading the articles you posted I also got the gut feeling about coal being a bigger part of the future.
To me its a bonus to see any sort of research which probably isnt already priced into the market. I was able to get the same benefit from HPC when buying gold a year or so back.
I learned to ignore what you can read in share magazines and such like. Instead I prefer to listen to people who are thinking outside the box.
eternalnomad
QUOTE(Sine270 @ Feb 2 2006, 01:04 PM) [snapback]289052[/snapback]

Okay. I can accept responsibility for a tiny bit of it having bought a few more today.
After reading the articles you posted I also got the gut feeling about coal being a bigger part of the future.
To me its a bonus to see any sort of research which probably isnt already priced into the market. I was able to get the same benefit from HPC when buying gold a year or so back.
I learned to ignore what you can read in share magazines and such like. Instead I prefer to listen to people who are thinking outside the box.


I admit to buying a few UKC shares this morning (and infact it is my FIRST EVER share purchase !!)

I think coal has a very strong long term future and actually said so on another forum back in November..

(http://forums.contractoruk.com/threadnav4813-2-10.html)

I understand that even with current extraction technology there are ~200 years of known coal reserves in the UK

Extraction technology where more difficult seams can be exploited is being developed.

The technology for 'cleaner burn' coal is now very advanced

I believe that one day (even in my own lifetime) the time will come when the UK will have to once again exploit its natural energy assest of "King Coal"
Realistbear
There are a lot of news articles today on the tremendous profit growth coal is experiencing internationally:

http://www.thesouthern.com/articles/2006/0...op/10004092.txt

"Mead said the technology exists to gasify coal to create synthetic natural gas, liquid transportation fuel, electricity and to make chemical feedstock to use in a variety of products."


http://www.londonstockexchange.com/LSECWS/...3450&source=RNS

Earlier this week, Coal & Allied announced a record net profit after tax for 2005 of A$290.1 million (compared with A$116.6 million in 2004). Coal & Allied’s total shipments in 2005 were 29 million tones of thermal and coking coal, with the majority going to Japan.



http://money.canoe.ca/News/Sectors/Mining/...1421945-cp.html

Fording Canadian Coal's Q4 profit more than doubles to $218M from year-ago $85M
2006-02-01 23:21:00
CALGARY (CP) - Higher coal prices helped push Fording Canadian Coal Trust's (TSX:FDG.UN) fourth-quarter profits up to $218 million, more than doubling the $85 million it earned in the same period in 2004.



____________________________________________________________________________
needle
QUOTE(Realistbear @ Feb 2 2006, 11:06 AM) [snapback]288932[/snapback]

There is some very heavy trading in UK Coal this morning--already reached average trading volume this morning with 5 hours left to run. Anyone know what may be happening? It can't be HPC'ers affecting the volume---can it? Its not me!!!!

No its called ramping.
There was a report on Channel4 or BBC2 last night about this "clean coal" nonsense.
Some pit town in pennsylvania was "promoted" by GWBush as "alternative energy".

The catch was at the end of the report where it was mentioned that in 3 years (after loads more r&d and investment etc) the plant would yield the equivalent of 5000 barrels of oil. 5000 for 3 years work!!!
I'd get more energy from mowing my lawn and burning grass clippings for 3 years.

Sorry to all you "believers" but this is total bs.
I understand if you are just stock market players in it for a short term buck - but, please, dont represent your personal financial interests as the salvation of the western worlds energy crisis.

If you do, I'll continue to shoot you down at every opportunity.

There is no "energy-solution" in coal.
There may be a few short-term bucks but thats it.

Anything else is just ramping shares (which gives this site a bad name and attracts the type of money-grubbing morons that caused these problems in the first place).

The mods should be on this.
Realistbear
QUOTE(needle @ Feb 3 2006, 12:33 AM) [snapback]289626[/snapback]

No its called ramping.
There was a report on Channel4 or BBC2 last night about this "clean coal" nonsense.
Some pit town in pennsylvania was "promoted" by GWBush as "alternative energy".

The catch was at the end of the report where it was mentioned that in 3 years (after loads more r&d and investment etc) the plant would yield the equivalent of 5000 barrels of oil. 5000 for 3 years work!!!
I'd get more energy from mowing my lawn and burning grass clippings for 3 years.

Sorry to all you "believers" but this is total bs.
I understand if you are just stock market players in it for a short term buck - but, please, dont represent your personal financial interests as the salvation of the western worlds energy crisis.

If you do, I'll continue to shoot you down at every opportunity.

There is no "energy-solution" in coal.
There may be a few short-term bucks but thats it.

Anything else is just ramping shares (which gives this site a bad name and attracts the type of money-grubbing morons that caused these problems in the first place).

The mods should be on this.



We should also close the threads suggesting gold is a good investment as it is just a short term and highly volatile commodity. Why not include banks and silver too, or perhaps anything about which anyone may be enthusiastic about. Should the mods rename the category, "Suggestions for investment" rather than "Investment in General." While we are at it we might want to censor the Bulls for "ramping"/suggesting BTLs and houses are good investments. Perhaps anyone with any kind of opinion as to the value of anything should be censored?

After all aren't all investors in property "money grubbing morons?" I would have thought someone with socialist leanings would have supported the miners getting their pits back? I certainly do.

You may be anti-coal but there is enough research out there to shoot you down as the links above demonstrate.

Perhaps your expert opinion would like to comment on the article in the Scotsman highlighted below which refers to the new technology that you may not have been keeping up to date with:

Energy review opens door for revival of coal, claims minister
Tue 24 Jan 2006
GERRI PEEV
POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT
MINISTERS yesterday paved the way for a "renaissance" of the coal industry as they highlighted the risks of putting Britain at the mercy of unpredictable foreign regimes for energy supplies.

New "very exciting" technology would kick-start the beleaguered coal sector 20 years after it was wound down by the Thatcher government.

Ageing nuclear and coal stations producing a third of the country's power supplies would be phased out by 2020.

Mr Johnson published a consultation document which he said served as a "wake-up call".

Coal would play a more important role in the review than it did a few years ago because of the emergence of clean coal technology, which would fuel a "renaissance" for the industry, he said.
David Hamilton, the Labour MP for Midlothian and a former miner, welcomed the government's positive stance on coal. "I'm very pleased that the clean coal technology which I have been highlighting for some time now seem like realistic proposals," he said. "The important thing is that from today, all the options are on the table."


http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=1171&id=115122006


Wed 25 Jan 2006

WORRIED about rising oil prices or the Russians turning off the gas? Then try coal. After 20 years in which Britain wrote off the black stuff as Arthur Scargill's legacy, and the UK power industry made a "dash for gas", coal is due for a major comeback. So far, the energy debate in the UK has centred on renewables versus nuclear power. However, coal is far cheaper than both and has the added advantage of being on our doorstep - dig a hole practically anywhere in Central Belt Scotland and you will find the stuff.


In the UK - contrary to what most people probably think - coal still accounts for roughly a third of electricity generation. We use about 60 million tons of coal a year in Britain, three quarters of which is burned to generate electricity. Around 25 million tons of this coal is still produced locally, with 12.5 million tons coming from deep-mined production in England; the rest is opencast.
For the record, clean coal is no longer an oxymoron. A host of new technologies is now available to reduce or eliminate and other pollutants emitted when burning coal. And guess where they are making this technology? Here in Scotland.
Mitsui Babcock, which employs 1,000 workers at Renfrew, is Britain's sole surviving manufacturer of steam-generation equipment. It has pioneered the development of new "super critical" boilers. These work by raising the pressure and temperature of steam to super levels, making more electricity from less coal, thus reducing emissions. These plants are also designed to mix coal with biomass, producing a reduction of 40 per cent in conventional greenhouse gas emissions.


http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=1171&id=120772006

The Australians see the wisdom in new coal technology:


THE Federal Government will put $2.2 million towards the development of a coal-cleaning technology.

Environment Minister Ian Campbell said the mechanical thermal expression (MTE) pilot plant, which is based on the concept of pre-drying coal before it goes into boilers, would be built at the Loy Yang power plant in Victoria.
"This project illustrates the Australian Government's commitment to developing new, clean technologies to reduce the greenhouse impact of meeting our energy needs," Senator Campbell said in a statement.


http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,1...0-31037,00.html


My case rests.
needle
Funny that.
If the scotsman reported house prices were rising you and everyone else here would jump down their throats wailing about VI spin and biased reporting.
This is just a puff-piece written by a Scots Nationalist. Fair play though, got no probs with that. But representing this as some sort of relevation or energy revolution is simply crazy.

"We use about 60 million tons of coal a year in Britain" - didnt someone say there were 300million tonnes still in Britain? So thats 5 years supply then...

"producing a reduction of 40 per cent in conventional greenhouse gas emissions." Yes but not actual gas emmissions. Further, neither burning coal with biomass nor super-heating steam is a radical scientific breakthrough.
"I would have thought someone with socialist leanings would have supported the miners getting their pits back?"
I would prefer that these people had jobs for life - rather than just jobs part of the economic cycle.

Again, how does it replace plastics? Power airplanes?
It doesnt. Its a nice short term price spike from which some may benefit.
I think people are grasping at straws here.....

But please Feed my head RB - I dont see how this can work. (other than as a short term share play)

(Enjoying the debate though!)
Smurf1976
Virtually the moment it was announced that the Kyoto Protocol would come into effect, the coal industry announced its expansion plans to supply the likes of China. This comment is in terms of the international coal industry and not specifically the UK.

A point not well understood by so-called environmentalists is that the exemption of China and India from the Kyoto Protocol doesn't simply reduce its already minimal effectiveness, it actually makes it negative as production shifts to those countries thus increasing wealth and domestic consumption. Not rocket science and the actions of the international industry prove it. Coal demand is rising and will continue to rise.

It is practical with existing technology to supply virtually 100% of electricity in a major grid from coal. Indeed that's what the UK and other countries once did. As oil and gas become scarce and prohibitively expensive for electricity generation, a process already well underway, it is inevitable that coal, nuclear and renewables will move towards collective 97%+ supply of electricity in most countries. The role of oil and gas will be limited to backup plant and meeting short term peak loads.

Realistically nobody expects that renewables apart from large scale hydro (already a far larger source of electricity worldwide than oil) are going to provide more than 20% at most. So we're going to be getting two thirds or more from coal and nuclear on a worldwide (industrialised countries) basis even if renewables are pushed very aggressively. Realistically, renewables will do less due to the lack of time so it's 75% coal and nuclear.

Does anyone honestly think that, on average, the industrial world is going to be using 75% nuclear power within the next few decades? Not likely. Even 30% would be a rather big challenge given the need to replace many existing plants. So that leaves coal with at least a 45% and perhaps as high as 60% depending on what assumptions you make about nuclear and renewables, world electricity share, a little more than it has now. Not spectacular market share growth, but growth inline with overall demand which is itself likely to be boosted by the move away from oil and gas.

So there's demand for coal as long as the economy grows. Liquefaction is an entirely different situation but it's worth noting that Australia had a demonstration plant running in the early 1980's and the reason it closed was because the cash cost of operations was about $40 a barrel and was uneconomic. A commercial scale plant would presumably have far lower unit costs but the problem is that the world is nowhere near a plan to actually build sufficient coal liquefaction capacity to head off the oil crisis. At best it represents an opportunity to make a profit once oil becomes a serious problem. Only in the much longer term does it represent a serious solution but with demand growth the coal resource then becomes a problem.

Conclusions on the coal price. I'm intentionally not drawing any but I do think the market has got a bit far ahead of itself recently. There's still plenty of the stuff in the ground so no real problem increasing production. As for the claim that Britain has 300 million tonnes, I find it hard to believe it's really that small. 300 million tonnes in operating mines maybe, but not in total. I don't have the facts there but it seems an unbelievably small amount - it just doesn't seem likely that the industry has extracted well over 90% of the resource without encountering serious production problems in recent times. I'd say it's operating mines only but will try and find some figures.
eternalnomad
QUOTE(Smurf1976 @ Feb 3 2006, 12:14 PM) [snapback]289829[/snapback]

As for the claim that Britain has 300 million tonnes, I find it hard to believe it's really that small. 300 million tonnes in operating mines maybe, but not in total. I don't have the facts there but it seems an unbelievably small amount - it just doesn't seem likely that the industry has extracted well over 90% of the resource without encountering serious production problems in recent times. I'd say it's operating mines only but will try and find some figures.



An excellent article smurf

Information I have seen in the past referred to UK reserves of between 200 and 300 YEARS (based on usage at the time) and not 300 million tonnes which as you say is a tiny amount.
tonification
Fuel oil made from coal is nothing new, and the process is not pie-in-the-sky

During the sanctions of the apartheid era, South Africa manufactured all its oil from coal

Realistbear
QUOTE(tonification @ Feb 4 2006, 02:41 PM) [snapback]290578[/snapback]

Fuel oil made from coal is nothing new, and the process is not pie-in-the-sky

During the sanctions of the apartheid era, South Africa manufactured all its oil from coal



Right Tonification. What IS new is oil at $65+ per bbl and a highly volatile Middle East making coal a viable source of fuel.
Realistbear
Coal is still a "front burner" issue:


http://scotlandtoday.scottishtv.colo.ednet..._1&newsid=10419

Coal debate in the capital
Leading members of the UK coal industry are meeting in Edinburgh to discuss how they can move the business forward.

There's been much debate surrounding the energy review which looks at nuclear power and coal. Experts say that using coal would not only safeguard thousands of jobs but helps the environment by reducing carbon dioxide emissions as well.

Dacre Purchase from Scottish Coal hopes coal will be seen as part of the solution rather than the problem: "Over the last decade there's been significant investment in the sector, raised the standards of operations and the way in which coal is consumed in power stations. We're on the cusp of technology, it's there and can be delivered and we're there to support that."



06 February 2006 05:46
OzzMosiz
Needle,

No one loses out on shares going up. Many people lose out on houses going up as a roof over ones head is a necessity.

As for the coal thing, I wonder if coal shares are going to become overvalued very quickly?
malco
Let me clarify things by defining what "clean coal" technology is. If you burn coal without any kind of pollution control you get large amounts of ash and sulphur (and radioactive waste from natural Uranium decay in the coal) going up the spout. This causes acid rain, haze, respiratory disease and lung cancers (far, far more than the nuclear cycle causes). So coal plant have progressively been retrofitted with scrubbers that take out the ash, sulphur and much of the other nasties like mercury and uranium daughter products. This is not "clean coal", but it's what you'll see now at a typical traditional subcritical cycle coal plent like Drax in Yorkshire.

The basis of clean coal is to combine special combustion processes (like fluidised bed) with high-efficiency super-critical steam cycles. The emissions are clean - except that there is still a lot of CO2 obviously. Due to the high thermal efficiency of the super-critical cycle, the CO2 released per kwh generated is about one third less than for a traditional steam plant. So this is quite a good way of using coal, although it would have to be combined with reform of distribution and end user waste in order to achieve real savings in CO2 emissions and the best use of the coal.

There is a nice idea that the CO2 could be pumped underground. This is called "sequestering". I don't know much about this technology and am not aware it has ever been demonstrated on a large scale.

I would say that clean coal could make a useful contribution to the UK energy challenge, along with nuclear, wind, tidal barrages, wave, landfill gas, but above all CONSERVATION (!). Whether we'll ever be able to meet transport fuel needs from coal is another matter. Fuel quality is an issue, as is the cost of building the capacity to provide for an inherently wasteful allocation of resources and lifestyle choice. I would suggest that getting the demand side sorted in terms of being more efficient and effective would come before any further discussion of what technology will serve our energy needs.
Realistbear
The Latest on Coal--7th February 2006

http://business.scotsman.com/utilities.cfm?id=193632006

Coal back in energy mix after cleaning up its act
JOANNA VALLELY

MARGARET THATCHER and Arthur Scargill fought a bitter tooth and nail battle over it: one trying to kill it off, the other trying to save it.

While a fatal blow was warded off, the mining industry spent years trying to stabilise itself in intensive care.


Now it seems it could be on the point of revival - and the Lothians, once an engine of Scotland's coal industry, could again see mining jobs created within its boundaries.

Much has been said about future UK energy policy: little has been said about coal's role in that.

Seen as dirty and part of the old energy order, it has virtually become the forgotten fuel of its age.

That could be about to change, though, as coal fights back to win its place in the energy mix through the Coal Industry Society's Clean, Green Coal Campaign

Mr Purchase says that Scottish Power's newly announced £170 million investment in the Longannet Power Station in Fife is an added boost for coal production in the region.

"Hundreds of jobs can be provided making the biomass in rural Scotland," he adds.

"But the reason for our interest in Fife and Midlothian is because the coal is there and because it is close to Longannet, as coal is costly to transport."



http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStor...nternational.na

China Faces Coal Tar Shortage; Prices Could Surge -Report



BEIJING -(Dow Jones)- China is facing a shortage of coal tar due to rising demand from the metallurgy and construction materials production industries, and prices could continue to rise in 2006, the official China Chemical Industry News reported Tuesday.

The supply of coal tar has lagged demand in the past five years, and could hurt the coal tar processing sector as well as impact industries that use coal tar as a fuel, such as glass and pottery production and metallurgy.

While demand has been rising, the supply of coal tar, a byproduct of coke production, has fallen due to a decline in coke output following the government's closure of numerous unsafe coal mines, the report said.

At the same time, China's coal tar processing capacity has grown by 20% in the past five years, reaching 5.3 million metric tons a year by the end of 2005, the paper said.

As a result, the price of coal tar has risen more than fourfold to CNY2,200 a ton in late 2005 from CNY540/ton in early 2005, the report said.

If the supply shortage persists, coal tar prices will remain high and could rise further in 2006, the paper said.


http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/business/20060207TDY08008.htm

Japan, Mongolia to sign coal survey agreement
The Yomiuri Shimbun

The central government will sign an agreement Thursday to conduct a joint survey of coal reserves in the eastern part of the Gobi Desert in Mongolia with the Mongolian government.

The survey is to be conducted for about four years until the end of March 2010 and will cover about 60,000 square kilometers of the eastern part of the Gobi Desert stretching southeast from Ulan Bator.

The two governments will examine geologic structures and coal reserves and quality. Once the presence of coal reserves is confirmed, preferential rights will be given to Japanese firms to negotiate with the Mongolian government.

Domestic coal consumption amounts to about 160 million tons, which accounts for about 20 percent of energy expenditures. Japan relies on imported coal for almost all of its domestic consumption.

As coal consumption in China has rapidly increased, coal prices have soared worldwide, creating concern domestically about obtaining sufficient imports.

(Feb. 7, 2006)
Realistbear
http://japancorp.net/Article.Asp?Art_ID=11851

New Japanese technology points to a bright future for coal:

Due to sharp increases in oil and natural gas prices, demand for supercritical-pressure coal-fired power generation is expected to increase globally in the coming years. MHI, riding on the strength of this latest order, aims to conduct vigorous plant marketing activities not only in Mexico but worldwide, especially in the U.S. and Southeast Asia.


Forget gold--its strategic fuel that is going to count in the years ahead.
Realistbear
http://www.sopo.org/cgi-bin/news.cgi?actio...ol=&websiteId=2

URL: http://www.gnn.gov.uk

Source: Department of Trade and Industry


UK - Coal powered more than half of the nation's peak electricity demand this winter and will form an important part of the Energy Review's analysis, Malcolm Wicks told the industry today.

Speaking at the Coal UK conference in London, the Energy Minister said:

"This winter has demonstrated the value of coal as part of our diverse generating mix. Against expectations, and as the price of gas spiralled, coal has been meeting 50% of average weekday demand, stepping in to keep electricity flowing to our homes, factories and offices. Normally, coal would average only 40% of supply at this time of year. This flexibility, built on the diversity of our energy sources, is an important strength of our energy market.



All that glitters is not gold! Dependency on coal will cause prices to rise.
ExeC
no ones arguing against you, its like your fighting a case against an imaginary bear ?
Realistbear
QUOTE(ExeC @ Feb 17 2006, 09:50 AM) [snapback]300614[/snapback]

no ones arguing against you, its like your fighting a case against an imaginary bear ?



Information on investments is one way of contributing to the site. Debate is also welcomed! smile.gif

In the meantime, more news on coal becoming a more viable source of energy in the years ahead:

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/output/2006/02...ry8038222t0.asp

THE MASSIVE contribution of King Coal to industrial life of Fife is back in the spotlight after comments by Energy Minister Malcolm Wicks, which follow an £170 million investment at coal-fired Longannet Power Station.

Coal powered more than half of the nation’s peak electricity demand this winter, he said, and will form “an important part” of the energy review.

At the Coal UK conference in London, Mr Wicks said, “This winter has demonstrated the value of coal.

“Against expectations, and as the price of gas spiralled, coal has been meeting 50% of average weekday demand, stepping in to keep electricity flowing to our homes, factories and offices.

“The biggest barrier to coal’s future is carbon dioxide and its contribution to climate change.

“It is this which is driving the development of carbon abatement technologies the world over. Carbon capture and storage, for example, has the potential to eliminate up to 95% of CO2 emissions, cleaning up the environmental impact of traditional fossil fuels such as coal.


Realistbear
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060220/214/g4e6x.html

Monday February 20, 02:10 PM
Coal group Powerfuel eyes AIM listing

LONDON (ShareCast) - Former RJB Mining boss Richard Budge intends to restart production at Yorkshire's Hatfield colliery via newly formed UK coal (LSE: UKC.L - news)
producer Powerfuel , due to hit London's AIM in March.

Once referred to as King Coal, Budge said he hopes to commence initial production during early 2007 and have the mine producing over 2 million tonnes of coal a year for at least 14 years.

The majority of this will be sold to electricity generators and will help the UK maintain independent energy supplies, offering protection against possible supply disruption from Russia.

"Generator demand demonstrates that there has never been a better time to reopen the Hatfield Colliery," he added.


Coal is certainly looking more like "black gold" as the energy crisis continues and coal becomes more viable.
wrongmove
Especially for you RB: Coal ready to take place on front burner (The Telegraph)

"Coal is back and back in a big way. The black stuff, long derided as an environmental nightmare, is once again being touted as a key part of Britain's energy future, with a host of new technologies promising to make it clean enough for Kyoto...."

Also in today's TGraph, an ePoll:

"Should there be more incentives for developing 'clean' coal technologies?"

At time of reading, Yes 90%, No 10%.

Mr_Nice
QUOTE(Realistbear @ Feb 20 2006, 05:36 PM) [snapback]303437[/snapback]

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060220/214/g4e6x.html

Monday February 20, 02:10 PM
Coal group Powerfuel eyes AIM listing

LONDON (ShareCast) - Former RJB Mining boss Richard Budge intends to restart production at Yorkshire's Hatfield colliery via newly formed UK coal (LSE: UKC.L - news)
producer Powerfuel , due to hit London's AIM in March.

Once referred to as King Coal, Budge said he hopes to commence initial production during early 2007 and have the mine producing over 2 million tonnes of coal a year for at least 14 years.

The majority of this will be sold to electricity generators and will help the UK maintain independent energy supplies, offering protection against possible supply disruption from Russia.

"Generator demand demonstrates that there has never been a better time to reopen the Hatfield Colliery," he added.


Coal is certainly looking more like "black gold" as the energy crisis continues and coal becomes more viable.


Will UKC have a big share of this new company? BTW as a "coal bug" have you considered CBM I picked up a shed load on friday. The chart is strong, a range of projects, and a big discount to NAV.
Plastic Elastic
As a side note: a friend of mine works for one of the railway companies, and it seems the transport of coal has picked up considerably over the last few months, probably due to the gas shortage.

However, the coal is apparently shipped in from South America. Cheaper. huh.gif
Realistbear
http://portal.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j.../21/ixcity.html

Imports now account for around two-thirds of coal used in power plant, with Russia the biggest supplier followed by South Africa. Around 35m tonnes was imported last year, compared with just 4m before privatisation.

The heavy dependence on Russia has caused some unease about reliability at a time when President Putin has been flexing his gas muscles by using the huge Gazprom company as a political weapon against former Soviet states.

Priority is being given to encouraging faster development of clean coal technology along the lines of the plans by Richard Budge, former chairman of RJB Mining, now UK Coal.



The political scene seems to point toward greater UK independence from volatile sources such as Putin's Russia?

QUOTE(Mr_Nice @ Feb 20 2006, 06:40 PM) [snapback]303507[/snapback]

Will UKC have a big share of this new company? BTW as a "coal bug" have you considered CBM I picked up a shed load on friday. The chart is strong, a range of projects, and a big discount to NAV.



Thanks for the tip--will check it out. Its up 14% so far today! Not much movement on UKC recently although a lot of behind the scenes developments seem to be happening due to the fuel "crisis" we are apparently experiencing.
Mr_Nice
QUOTE(Mr_Nice @ Feb 20 2006, 06:40 PM) [snapback]303507[/snapback]

Will UKC have a big share of this new company? BTW as a "coal bug" have you considered CBM I picked up a shed load on friday. The chart is strong, a range of projects, and a big discount to NAV.



Anyone get any CBM? Up over 20% already, which is nice.
Realistbear
http://freeserve.advfn.com/news_New-Clean-...e_14308497.html

The new technology is already reality.
Adam
QUOTE(needle @ Jan 30 2006, 08:08 PM) [snapback]286806[/snapback]

I find it hard to believe that this would be in any way acceptable in a climate where the whole planet is looking for ways to reduce CO2 emmissions that people are going to start burning coal again.


Noone REALLY cares about that stuff do they? laugh.gif
In a climate where we are at the mercy of rogue states for our energy, they might start digging it up again just because they are too lazy to find alternatives to already existing technology.
I'd steer clear of it though, as, surely, emerging technologies have more chance of big speculative gains, and the anti-coal lobby will surely prefer nuclear?
You might as well speculate on coal by ripping out your gas fire and installing a coal bunker.


Smurf1976
QUOTE(Smurf1976 @ Feb 3 2006, 11:14 PM) [snapback]289829[/snapback]

Realistically nobody expects that renewables apart from large scale hydro (already a far larger source of electricity worldwide than oil) are going to provide more than 20% at most.

Addition to that post. I'm referring to the next few decades in the context of decisions which need to be made today. At some point the renewables share will be very much higher, it will dominate, but not soon enough to avoid building more fossil fuel or nuclear plants in the meantime.
Realistbear
New technology is being applied at breakneck speed as wordl comes to terms with coal as the fuel for the future:

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/new...0888748558.html

New technology heralds greener future for coal
Email Print Normal font Large font By Rod Myer, Energy Reporter
February 27, 2006
Page 1 of 2
VICTORIA faces a power conundrum. The state has at least 500 years' supply of coal buried in the Latrobe Valley but the fuel's huge greenhouse-gas cost means it is struggling to find a long-term future.


Harnessing work done by Melbourne University and the CSIRO, LLD is commercialising a process called brown coal densification that uses heat to break coal down into three components — fixed carbon (19 per cent), gases (19 per cent) and water (62 per cent).

The process is relatively simple, Mr Stevens says. The coal goes into a kiln, gases are taken off and used to generate power, much of the water is returned to the environment and the carbon is converted into coke for steel making. The result, he says, is electricity produced at the same greenhouse emission level as natural gas generation.

Along with low-emissions energy, there is another major environmental benefit. A standard power station might take about 35 million tonnes of water annually from the environment and put only 20 million tonnes back. LLD's process recovers water from the brown coal and "gives it back to the community", Mr Stevens says.

The process is also an economically viable base-load-power alternative. Mr Stevens says it will be profitable at a power price of $35 per megawatt hour, a similar break-even point to new traditional coal-burning stations and well below the $45 per megawatt hour for natural gas generation.


HRL chief executive Gordon Carter said the agreement paved the way for joint development of power plants internationally, with China a strong option.


Follow the money.......

Realistbear
http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/02032006/325/uk-co...al-quarter.html

UK Coal says returns to profit in final quarter
LONDON (Reuters) - UK Coal (LSE: UKC.L - news) <UKC.L> said on Thursday it returned to profit in the last quarter of 2005 after posting a full year loss and that it was well placed for the coming year.


smile.gif


BROKER RECOMMENDATION adds UKC to BUY list :

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060302/336/g5crz.html

Seymour Pierce says buy Alizyme , Amlin , China Shoto (LSE: CHNS.L - news) , Gulfsands Petroleum (LSE: GPX.L - news) and UK Coal (LSE: UKC.L - news) and has outperform on Tepnel Life Sciences (LSE: TED.L - news) , London Asia and Daily Mail and General Trust .
Sine270
QUOTE(Realistbear @ Mar 2 2006, 11:36 AM) [snapback]311659[/snapback]

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/02032006/325/uk-co...al-quarter.html

UK Coal says returns to profit in final quarter
LONDON (Reuters) - UK Coal (LSE: UKC.L - news) <UKC.L> said on Thursday it returned to profit in the last quarter of 2005 after posting a full year loss and that it was well placed for the coming year.


smile.gif
BROKER RECOMMENDATION adds UKC to BUY list :

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/060302/336/g5crz.html

Seymour Pierce says buy Alizyme , Amlin , China Shoto (LSE: CHNS.L - news) , Gulfsands Petroleum (LSE: GPX.L - news) and UK Coal (LSE: UKC.L - news) and has outperform on Tepnel Life Sciences (LSE: TED.L - news) , London Asia and Daily Mail and General Trust .


Up over 4% today wink.gif
A Fool & His Borrowed Money
Funny as, i heard on the yorkshire radio today that some local pits (Hatfield) have been suffering losses, but made a profit to the end of last year.....
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