Opinion is, as ever, divided on whether the stock market will go up or down.

On Friday December 30th the FTSE 100 closed at 5619.

Personally, I am bullish, and think that a 10-15% rise is within reason, based on fundamentals. That would take the FTSE somewhere between 6181 - 6462.


5 year chart:



Articles:

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/moneyweekly/stocksshares2006.html -

Excerpt:


"Stock markets around the world have enjoyed a pretty good run in 2005. In Britain , for example, the FTSE 100 index of the biggest companies is up more than 15%. “We began 2005 heavily overweight equities and have not been disappointed. Equities have risen sharply across all major markets,” said Paul Niven of F&C Asset Management, one of the biggest fund managers.

Shares have been bolstered by strong corporate earnings and resilient global growth. Equities also seem relatively cheap. Niven said: “Share prices have not kept pace with earnings growth, so although markets have ended the year higher – equity valuations have actually not become any dearer.” The big question is: will stocks and shares continue to do well in 2006? Or should we take our profits and run – or at least stuff the money in a savings account?

Stuart Fowler of AXA Investment Managers is keeping faith with UK equities. He said: “We expect another good year for the stock market in 2006. The market's valuation is OK, the international economic outlook is broadly supportive, and takeovers are likely to be a feature again - corporate activity always gets the market's juices flowing.” He even dares to hope that investors might get over their infatuation with property. “The stock market has been rising steadily since March 2003. Surely there must come a time when the love affair with buying houses wanes in favour of shares again.”
"



I shall strive to update this thread periodically.

I'm wondering if we will see a correction in the New Year. IMO the Dow has just turned bearish and I have a target price of about 10450-10500 ish, but this could be due to the holiday season.

think the markets could surprise a few people and head south early in the new year

The FTSE 100 is up 0.57% now - obviously everything is very rosey with the world. We've got no energy crises, retail sales are booming, consumers have paid off all their debt and are spending like there's no tomorrow, house prices are surging ahead. Pile in now while you can

Regards,
crude

6,200 year end for FTSE100

10,000 year end for FTSE250

THE FTSE100 and FTSE250 used to be level a few years back !

We're off to a flyer for 2006! - FTSE-100 up 62.70 to 5681.5!

Good stuff! Up or down, I couldn't care less because I'm just as happy shorting as I am going long :-)

Does anyone know where I can find a historical sheet showing the lvels of the FTSE 100 on specific dates?

The key figure I am looking for is the Year End figure for 2005.

Van already mentioned it. Actually it is 5618.8.

You can get loads of good graphs and stuff from
http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/cgi-bin...?action=indices

That is a superb link, thanks for posting it.

Yahoo also have daily figures (open, close, high, low, volume) going back to 1984

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EFTSE

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/71c46c48-7eab-11d...00779e2340.html



Actually I would be disappointed if it "only" reached 6,000, as that is only 4.8% away. I'd consider that a very poor return for my investment.

imho ftse will breach all time high, 7000 in 2006 me thinks.

What makes you think that the FTSE will rise so high? Ive no idea - just interested in you're reasoning.

It's just WUM talk.

Markets everyone taking a hell of a beating this morning.

FTSE down 1% @5644.

11,000 looks on the Dow like a bull trap.

Trading suspended on the Nikkei overnight, -4.6%, after a similar fall yesterday!

Oil back above $67 pb.

That is all!

well i did try and warn you

I'm not worried yet. Downside to a possible 5350 will still see the uptrend intact. Markets were very overbought heading into new year and correction was inevitable. Question is will it be a short sharp sell off like October, or a longer drift down like Apr/May/Jun.

Any case, I'm partially hedged with a short on the Dow..

if this is your position i would be worried

So far in 2006, on down days like today the FTSE250 has in general decreased significantly less in percentage terms than the FTSE100. This happened today. The FTSE250 is not showing any weakness relative to the FTSE100 as yet and is continuing its healthy 2005 trend.

as far as im concerned the stock market is, in its own way, nearly as over valued as the housing market

Only if you think stocks should be on a future P/E of 5, ie 20% earnings!

Milkshock, please can you expand on this. FTSE trades on 14 times earnings, compared to property which is valued at roughly 20 times earnings. Traditionally FTSE should be valued higher because of the higher long term growth. When interest rates are low, the risk-free rate of return is low, and thus asset prices should be higher to reflect this.

Just because the market has nearly doubled in 3 years doesn't mean anything - if profits have doubled, it's just as good value (it's not as quite as simple as this, because you have to factor in likely growth and interest rates, but the underlying fundamentals still stand).

ok then explain this article where andrew large makes explicit reference to over valued equities:

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticl...ITAIN-LARGE.xml

FTSE250 typically outperforming the FTSE100 on up days as well such as today.

--------

Ok now we know you have no idea what you are talking about.

Milkshock, I agree valuations on certain markets are overblown - basically the FTSE 100 is the cheapest (x14) compared to FTSE 250 (x20), FTSC (x25ish), AIM (x40ish??). However, since the FTSE-100 is 90% of the UK stock market anyway, these other indices are small fry by comparison. I'm sure Mr Large would love to be able to buy the FTSE on 10 times earnings, but it ain't gonna happen.

In terms of capitalisation yes the FTSE100 is about 90% of the market but just a tiny proportion by number of companies.

Anyway the FTSE100 could only manage a puny pathetic 0.52% rise today while the FTSE250 managed a massive huge 1.23% rise !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Blood being spilt on the markets tonight!

SPX down 17pts to 1266
DJIA down 138pts to 10730
Nasdaq 100 down 38pts to 1700

Covered my Dow shorts for some profit and went short on Crude oil.

The DOW was down about 115 when the UK market closed with the FTSE100 down in sympathy with the Dow although only by -0.37% but the FTSE250 actuallly stayed up with a respectable 0.15% rise !!!!!!

Restistance is futile

no comment from penbat about the ftse 250 today?

ftse 100 down 0.2% vs 250 down 0.62%

OK OK the FTSE250 came off worse today!!! However the FTSE250 has been outperforming the FTSE100 by a big margin for years now. I am pretty amazed that this trend is still happening. The trend could of course stop at any time. In the past year or so the FTSE250 has had occasional bad days relative to the FTSE100 but good days have been outnumbering them by about 5 to 1.

i noticed this thread has gone quiet all of a sudden LMAO

DAY-TRADERS!!!

Did you also also notice that the FTSE finished the day 12pts down? Hardly the sort of meltdown you must have been hoping for after a the biggest fall on Wall St for 3 years, was it? Markets go up and down. It's taking a breather while technical indicators pull back from the red zone. There's nothing really to report at the moment. Anything above 5350 will keep the uptrend fimly intact.

So, sorry if you were expecting meltdown - hasn't really worked out that way. Oh yeah, latest news is that FTSE trades on less than 13 times earnings, so stick that in your pipe and smoke it.

Why, out of curiosity, are you so against an equities bull-market? At least a strong market is usually good for the economy. And, unlike homes, it is not like everyone has been priced out of buying shares. Just a sourpuss who can't stand the sight of other people getting richer, perhaps?

Sorry, until this position is held for any length of time you have nothing to crow about. and thats not going happen for a long while yet. Elsewhere you claim 6,000 would be a poor return. I think you're stuggling and I think you should be man enough to admit it.

Yes the FTSE was pretty robust but you are oversimplifying it. The Dow was down about 115 when UK trading finished at the end of Friday. Also the Dow rebounded about 30 points today. So the FTSE today only had to respond to a Dow loss of about 70 points which would translate to about a 35 point loss today on the FTSE100 on percentage basis.

Fine. We'll see where we are come December. I said 6,000 would be a poor return (being about about 6% away), and I stand by that, if that's all that the market does this year. What's YOUR forecast, Milkshock, and are you prepared to back it with your own money (long OR short), or are you simply a wind up merchant who likes harassing those of us who are actually bold enough to take a bit of risk?

go and stick it on the horses you muppet, you have about as much chance of making money there as you will in seeing significant returns on the ftse.

ftse to be 6,000 max year end.

and thats a year of your cash tied up.

oh, and im not interested in investing in broadly flat markets, thanks all the same .

So, even you are forecasting it will RISE. Add in a nice dividend, and that's a 10% return. Of course, Milkshock, you don't get out of bed for less tha 30%pa, do you? So stay in ING earning 4.5%, I implore you - at least that way when the FTSE hits 7,000, 8,000, and 9,000 further down the line, there'll be a few mugs left to pull their savings out and stick on the market AFTER the big rises have taken place, while the clever money was buying all the way up while equities were still cheap. Personally I like to see my money working for me rather than the other way around.

so 6,000 is a good return now is it?

the truth is, you cant make up your mind and keep shifting the goalposts. 6,000 is a poor return, you have admitted it. i think 5,900 is possible, 6,000 top end.

dont now try to make out that 6,000 is some kind of victory if it reaches that point.

You're a tw*t, milkshock. Far from shifting any goalposts, did I, or did I not, reaffirm two postings ago that I stand by my forecasts? Whether or not 6,000 is a good return or not is subjective. I would not call a FTSE@ 6,000+dividend a return fantastic, but at least it IS a return - twice what you get in a bank account. I said before and I say again (and again, in case you weren't listening the 2nd time), that I thought 6181 - 6462 was possible based on fundamentals (y'know the important things.. like earnings), so it doesn't take a genius to figure out that I would regard 6,000 as mild underperformance. Is it acceptable? yeah, it's acceptable. Like I said, still more than twice what the bank will pay you.

The fact is that you have nothing worthwhile to contribute to this thread, so I will be severely curtailing my banter and saving it for when there's something worthwhile to be said.

Cant you two guys let it rest. Its funny you Van find plenty of time to respond to all of Milkshake's posts and always ignore mine. At least I dont trade insults but put forward opinions based on fact.

Van you forget the horrors of the dotcom crash when people were sure of a big rise in the FTSE100 and it all went horibbly wrong and it still hasnt anywhere near recovered 6 years later. Unless you are a genius on the futures market the best way to invest is ultra longterm (10 years plus) and it is essential that you have a big cash buffer to avoid having to fall back on your stock market investments in the meantime.

[quote Actually I would be disappointed if it "only" reached 6,000, as that is only 4.8% away. I'd consider that a very poor return for my investment.
[/quote]


yeah, very poor return on my investment = mild underperformance - get a grip you stupid man!

The FTSE250 is currently 0.32% up, the FTSE100 is currently -0.28% down. Its been the same pattern all day and most days.

You guys are all in denial about the FTSE250 - the signs are the trend will continue for now.

I still reckon the FTSE will end up down this year...5300 my estimate.

...this bull market has been going on for 3 years now....3.5 for the dow.

even history would suggest a 6-12mth correction is on the cards.

the housing bubble isn't even the reason why...because that should support the market as prop money flows in!!

....geopolitical risk,overoptimistic forecasts,re-surfacing of trade defecit concerns and asia outperformance(capital flow eastwards),are what are likely to drive the market down.

Yes lower FTSE100 and higher FTSE250.

at last someone prepared to talk sense here!

The FTSE may be up or down at the end of year. It is far from certain. We could theoretically have another 9/11 for example to sink the markets. The only safe thing to do is take a very long term view and invest for the long term. Investing on the stock market for just one year is not enough.

FTSE 100 up 0.65% so far today FTSE 250 up 1.02% so far today